Wall St Week AheadInvestors eye US jobs data as stocks hit record highs
Focus will shift to Washington in the coming week. President Donald Trump wants his fellow Republicans to pass a sweeping tax-cut and spending bill by July 4. Investors also get a crucial view into the US economy with the monthly employment report due on Thursday. US stock markets are closed on Friday, July 4, for the US Independence Day holiday.
Citigroup's US economic surprise index has been weakening, indicating that data has been missing Wall Street expectations, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. 'After some softer May data, the June data is really going to be under a microscope,' Miskin said. 'If the data deteriorates more, it may get the market's attention.'
US employment is expected to have climbed by 110,000 jobs in June, according to a Reuters poll — a slowdown from May's 139,000 increase. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell in the prior week, but the unemployment rate could rise in June as more laid-off people struggle to find work. 'The labor market right now is front and center over the next few weeks,' said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. Employment data could factor into expectations for when the Federal Reserve will next cut interest rates, with investors also watching to see if inflation is calming enough to allow for lower rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been wary that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation, a view he told the US Congress this week. Some Fed officials have talked about a stronger case for cuts. Trading of fed funds futures in the past week indicated ramped-up bets for more easing this year. The level of tariffs could come into sharper view with a July 9 deadline for higher levies on a broad set of countries. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday said trade deals with other countries could be done by the Sept 1 Labor Day holiday, citing 18 main US trading partners.
Stocks have rebounded sharply since plunging in April following Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement, as the president pulled back on some of the most severe tariffs. This eased fears about a recession, but markets could remain sensitive to trade developments. Investors also will focus on the US fiscal bill in Congress for indication of the extent of stimulus in the legislation and how much it could widen federal deficits. With a roller-coaster first half nearly complete, the S&P 500 is up about 5 percent so far in 2025. Over the past 15 years, July has been a strong month for stocks, with the S&P 500 increasing 2.9 percent in July on average, Wedbush analysts noted in a report this week.
Second-quarter US corporate earnings season kicks off in the coming weeks, with concerns over how much tariffs may be biting into company profits or affecting consumer spending. S&P 500 earnings are expected to have climbed 5.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES data. 'We've been in a geopolitically focused market over the past several weeks,' said Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. 'I think the dawn of earnings season ... will refocus the market back towards fundamentals.' — Reuters
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