Latest news with #MayureshJoshi
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Texmaco Rail could be railway sector's dark horse: Mayuresh Joshi
"The only issue with the manufacturing stocks per se is that the top line might grow but it has shown a slight sign of sluggishness as we speak in terms of execution and margins to a certain extent, to the likes of a Titagarh or even to the likes of a Texmaco Rail constraint to that 11% to 12% mark," says Mayuresh Joshi, Head Equity, Marketsmith India. ADVERTISEMENT What is it that you are making, still early details yet and we are getting takeaways from the cabinet meet which is currently underway on an approval of overs Rs 3,000 crore for railway projects. Mayuresh Joshi: Two things -- one, in terms of the approval ticker that you are just seeing on your screen that is something which is incrementally positive for these rail stocks and again the allocation that has been made in budgetary terms has been a decent one. So, whether you are talking about commissioning of new lines, changing from the gate system that you probably got, and expectations in terms of more coach is expected whether it is Vande Bharat or the metro coaches as well, so there is sufficient work at play. The only issue with the manufacturing stocks per se is that the top line might grow but it has shown a slight sign of sluggishness as we speak in terms of execution and margins to a certain extent, to the likes of a Titagarh or even to the likes of a Texmaco Rail constraint to that 11% to 12% mark. So, margin expansion beyond that seems improbable and therefore it is how much you execute which also is probably time bound to a certain extent, which means that there is a definite sense of earnings coming through with definite margins expected to come through. On the other hand, the other infrastructure or the support related stocks that you are speaking about, the likes of an IRCTC as an example, even the financing stocks as far as railways are concerned the whole expectations in the ecosystem in terms of the working capital cycle is something to be seen out for as well. So, again, they do give these selective sporadic moves. But are they structural in nature? My own sense is that because of the lumpiness in earnings, the earnings are always not reflected in a compounded demand on an annualised basis and therefore, they become very-very stock specific. From a momentum perspective, stocks can continue showing momentum in my opinion. And also, Tex Rail is one stock if they continue doing well in terms of execution, the kind of ecosystem that they have probably created and the expectations in terms of the balance sheet growth, specifically the recovery we have seen after covid and the sluggishness in the past two years, if they are able to overcome that, I think that probably can be a dark horse from the railway theme. ADVERTISEMENT What is your own sense because at a time when we are still awaiting some details coming in from US and China's talks in London and it seems like there is some headway definitely on the talks, but on the other hand you have companies like Maruti already slashing their production targets for their newest entrant in the e-club that is e-Vitara and they are talking about…, while they are going to be making up the targets eventually in the year for the next two to three months, they are actually scaling back. Mayuresh Joshi: No, so if you probably look at the proportion in terms of the EV cars or the EV platforms or the EV models as a percentage of the overall top line, it is still not a major component and therefore with this whole rare earth magnet issue that is expected to continue, if the resolution comes in as you are putting out, I think that is great news for global auto stocks, that is great news for the auto industry in general. But if this lingers on a tad a bit more, like Maruti has likewise put in his statement, maybe the short-term pain might be there. But as supply chains probably get worked out again, the second half there will be some element of recovery that one really expects. But if there is a resolution that comes through quicker than one really expects, the expectations in terms of normalisation of volumes specifically on new launches as far as EV cars are concerned, might actually continue doing well. ADVERTISEMENT Now in the Indian context, the expectation in terms of competition intensity, pricing, all that is going to play a big part in terms of how volume growth probably takes place and take shape as well and there is a huge ecosystem in terms of the appetite for EV cars and the adoption of EV infrastructure as well whether you are calling for fast chargers or fast charging stations as well. So, to that extent it is an evolvement as we speak and therefore within the space itself what we really continue to hold in our global portfolios within the PV space, M&M is something that we still continue liking and holding and within two wheelers TVS Motors. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Texmaco Rail could be railway sector's dark horse: Mayuresh Joshi
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "The only issue with the manufacturing stocks per se is that the top line might grow but it has shown a slight sign of sluggishness as we speak in terms of execution and margins to a certain extent, to the likes of a Titagarh or even to the likes of a Texmaco Rail constraint to that 11% to 12% mark," says Mayuresh Joshi , Head Equity, Marketsmith things -- one, in terms of the approval ticker that you are just seeing on your screen that is something which is incrementally positive for these rail stocks and again the allocation that has been made in budgetary terms has been a decent whether you are talking about commissioning of new lines, changing from the gate system that you probably got, and expectations in terms of more coach is expected whether it is Vande Bharat or the metro coaches as well, so there is sufficient work at play. The only issue with the manufacturing stocks per se is that the top line might grow but it has shown a slight sign of sluggishness as we speak in terms of execution and margins to a certain extent, to the likes of a Titagarh or even to the likes of a Texmaco Rail constraint to that 11% to 12% margin expansion beyond that seems improbable and therefore it is how much you execute which also is probably time bound to a certain extent, which means that there is a definite sense of earnings coming through with definite margins expected to come through. On the other hand, the other infrastructure or the support related stocks that you are speaking about, the likes of an IRCTC as an example, even the financing stocks as far as railways are concerned the whole expectations in the ecosystem in terms of the working capital cycle is something to be seen out for as again, they do give these selective sporadic moves. But are they structural in nature? My own sense is that because of the lumpiness in earnings, the earnings are always not reflected in a compounded demand on an annualised basis and therefore, they become very-very stock a momentum perspective, stocks can continue showing momentum in my opinion. And also, Tex Rail is one stock if they continue doing well in terms of execution, the kind of ecosystem that they have probably created and the expectations in terms of the balance sheet growth, specifically the recovery we have seen after covid and the sluggishness in the past two years, if they are able to overcome that, I think that probably can be a dark horse from the railway so if you probably look at the proportion in terms of the EV cars or the EV platforms or the EV models as a percentage of the overall top line, it is still not a major component and therefore with this whole rare earth magnet issue that is expected to continue, if the resolution comes in as you are putting out, I think that is great news for global auto stocks, that is great news for the auto industry in if this lingers on a tad a bit more, like Maruti has likewise put in his statement, maybe the short-term pain might be there. But as supply chains probably get worked out again, the second half there will be some element of recovery that one really expects. But if there is a resolution that comes through quicker than one really expects, the expectations in terms of normalisation of volumes specifically on new launches as far as EV cars are concerned, might actually continue doing in the Indian context, the expectation in terms of competition intensity, pricing, all that is going to play a big part in terms of how volume growth probably takes place and take shape as well and there is a huge ecosystem in terms of the appetite for EV cars and the adoption of EV infrastructure as well whether you are calling for fast chargers or fast charging stations as to that extent it is an evolvement as we speak and therefore within the space itself what we really continue to hold in our global portfolios within the PV space, M&M is something that we still continue liking and holding and within two wheelers TVS Motors
Time of India
10-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India Inc earnings show early signs of recovery; Q2 may see boost, Mayuresh Joshi, Head Equity, Marketsmith India
Mayuresh Joshi , Head Equity, Marketsmith India , says it has been reasonable to be honest and therefore, our take in terms of earnings expected to bottom out by Q2 and show significant improvement across the length and breadth of the universe, should probably start out as consumption trends come back very-very strongly. ET Now: Give us a sense of the way the market has moved over the course of the week and everything that has been happening across the border. Give us a sense of the fundamental impact that you are seeing and we have seen a bunch of stocks like certain sectors have been able to come out unscathed of this, case in point being PSU banks also in trade was largely doing pretty okay. But on that note, I want to get a sense of the PSU basket itself, banks and otherwise because every time we have seen something like this happening when we have a national security threat, it is the public sector undertakings that come into immediate line of fire. This is something that we have seen over the course of time in the markets. Give us a sense of what you are making of the entire PSU space, could be defence, could be banks. What is your take? by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 10-Month-old is battling for his life and only you can save him! Give Hope India Donate Now Undo Mayuresh Joshi: First of all, I would say kudos to the Indian army for backing off Pakistan quite significantly, so Jai Hind for it and we hope that we succeed in whatever objectives we have put out from a government directive perspective. Having said that, if you probably look at historical evidences, on all previous conflicts that have probably happened, the pain does not seem to last long because the markets move along, unless there is huge escalation which probably we have not seen in the recent past and therefore, I do not believe that this will turn out to be a huge escalation as we speak. There will be some element of sanity returning over the next few days, next few weeks, and therefore, the reaction that the markets have given is very-very mature in my opinion. And the reaction is based on two counts. One, obviously in terms of geopolitical news which the markets believe should get resolved and the second element in terms of both macros and micros. From a macro perspective, crude prices are lower which means the trade deficit is lower. The government capex is continuing at a full throttle. Liquidity is abundant in the system. Live Events The expectations of tax collection remain extremely strong and therefore, we are maintaining our fiscal glide path seems to be the best case scenario as we head into the next financial year. Having said that, with consumption expected to take a huge boost from the tax cuts on the urban side, with better monsoons expected to boost consumption on the rural side. The micro picture in terms of corporate returnings should start improving in Q2 and significantly in the second half which probably then makes us believe that outside India there are very few economies which have a very strong macro and a micro built up that is probably happening. The only couple of risk factors that play out this scenario, not just for the Indian markets, globally is that over the next 60-65 days as that 90-day window probably gets over, what happens in terms of tariff negotiations ex-China and with China as well and what do we finally settle down at. And in the second perspective looking at the first perspective, what kind of an impact does that have on growth, inflation dynamics, and the rate cut cycle which will largely be determined globally in terms of how global GDP growth pans out. So, if you put everything in context, my own sense is that India is better placed than most of the economies across the globe. Even China is probably expected to struggle as far as it is (10:49) economic indicators are concerned and therefore, we remain optimistic on the Indian market. Our own sense is that India probably remains the best placed markets outside the US. ET Now: Let us talk about earnings then. The earnings so far have not been as bad as the street was pencilling in earlier. Remember, there was a lot of pessimism about the quarter four earnings season when we were talking about this a few weeks ago before the earnings season had kicked off. What are you making of this earning season now, now that we are a little more than halfway into it. Give us your sense on what you are making of this earning season because especially for FMCG as a sector that we have seen multiple beats versus expectations. It is a sector we were not expecting to do well at all and we have had multiple such surprises across sectors. So, what is your view on the quarter four earning season so far? Mayuresh Joshi: It has been reasonable to be honest and therefore, our take in terms of earnings expected to bottom out by Q2 and show significant improvement across the length and breadth of the universe, should probably start out as consumption trends come back very-very strongly. Having said that, for Q4 in particular, BFSI have posted a very strong set of numbers generally across the pack. Insurance players have done a good set of numbers as well. The banking companies have done good numbers and have the NBFCs as well. So BFSI as a space has done reasonably well. The expectations with FMCG was always soft and muted and therefore it is in line with what the street was probably believing. But again, the entire thrust is with consumption expected to come back strongly, these companies should start reporting better numbers both from a volume and a price perspective giving them the leverage. Out of the companies in play, Marico out of FMCG companies was a standout performer as far as overall numbers are concerned. When it comes to IT, again the softness was largely expected. There were a few outliers like Mphasis, like a Coforge, like Persistent within the midcap IT pack and therefore the hope in terms of discretionary spending coming back, tariff resolutions expected to happen, and demand slowly and steadily kicking in for BFSI, retail, manufacturing for North America and Europe clearly hinges on the fact that second half earnings might start coming back for IT companies and specifically for these midcap IT companies which have probably delivered as we speak and given better earnings outlook. Generally, for agrochemicals , a good set of numbers again and I think that spree in terms of earnings momentum might very well continue with expectations of better monsoons coming through and therefore, a large universe within the agrochemical pack have delivered decent set of numbers. Coromandel was a standout within that pack as well. Now, when it comes to the other consumption-driven items, whether it is consumption discretionary as we speak, alco-beverages have delivered a very good show so whether it is Radico or UBL have delivered good set of numbers and the FTA that you were just speaking about, I think there will be some implied benefits that can come through for this sector as well. Last but not the least, the expectations in terms of power as a sector was always supposed to be a little bit muted. PSU banks selectively did well, selectively disappointed, but there is valuation comfort there as well and capital goods selectively did well, but the general consensus again here was that it might be a quarter where recovery will start playing out and probably Q2 onwards the recovery will be full blown. So, these set of numbers so far are reasonably placed as far as India Inc is concerned. Q2, it should be out and second half I think we should see earnings recover. ET Now: Give us a sense on what you are making of the pharma pack because we hear that Trump could be announcing pharma tariffs soon, at least that is what he is claiming that is his course of action when it comes to pharma. How bad do you think if at all, because we have had this initial round of shock a little bit coming in for autos and pharma and would you believe that that has been digested well enough now or do you believe we are back in for round two of a shock coming in now that fresh tariffs are expected to be announced for pharma? Mayuresh Joshi: …there might be a knee-jerk reaction, but it is not going to be because if you probably look at the construct, you hear the Eli Lilly management out and they have clearly pointed out that if you want to probably set up a new facility, it might just take a long periodicity of time and the cost of producing drugs, a single drug, a speciality drug might actually exceed in billions of dollars. So, US does not have the flexibility both in terms of time and cost and therefore whatever claims are made, it is just not going to. Having said that, a lot of the leadership pharma stocks have created a signification pipeline in terms of speciality drugs and therefore NDAs that they have filed, the FTFs they have filed, the speciality NDAs that they have probably filed with phase 2, phase 3 trials continuing for a whole host of pharma companies, the expectation here is that the kind of systems and processes we follow, you have obviously got FDA audits for a whole host of pharma companies, on top of that the expectations in terms of time and delivery that these companies are probably making for the US consumers and the rest of the globe as well are very-very effective and therefore, leadership stocks within the pharma space should continue doing well. They have invested significantly in capacities and therefore the R&D spends should plateau out as we speak and therefore, there should be some element of consistency and saliency in terms of operating margins. So, certain stocks like the Sun Pharma and the Cipla is something that we continue holding in our global portfolio.
Time of India
06-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Power demand surge to keep NTPC, Coal India, PowerGrid in limelight: Mayuresh Joshi
"These players might remain in focus as we speak at least from a PSU perspective. From the private perspective obviously players like a Tata Power , Adani Power should remain in focus. But again, power EPC players might also remain in focus to a large extent," says Mayuresh Joshi , Head Equity, Marketsmith India. Let me actually talk about the power space only with you. Given the fact that you now have the government actually writing to states and also asking the states to make sure that you have the adequate power supply and given the fact that we are going to hit the peak of the summer season which means that the demand for power will only increase given the fact that you will see rise in temperature. How are you actually gauging the entire power space at this point in time? Mayuresh Joshi: So, three aspects, you have got power generators, you have got power transmitters, and then you have got the power EPC players as well. Now, when it comes to the generators, the expectation is that with summer coming around, the expectations in terms of peak power demand and peak power loads is going to be significantly higher over the next few weeks and the next couple of months. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Linda Kozlowski, 67, Shows Off Her Perfect Figure In A New Photo Investructor Undo And therefore, stocks like an NTPC , for example, Power Grid as an example also is a transmitter with grid transmission lines and capex to capitalisation remaining extremely stable for both these companies, having decent dividend yields along with Coal India, the expectation largely is that with peak power demand expected to surpass record levels this time around, expectations of thermal coal coming back very-very strongly at this juncture, actually mean that the blended realisations for Coal India might be relatively better and also let us not forget the dividend yield is significantly higher compared to a lot of players. So, these players might remain in focus as we speak at least from a PSU perspective. From the private perspective obviously players like a Tata Power , Adani Power should remain in focus. But again, power EPC players might also remain in focus to a large extent. So, let us not forget that over the next few years as India is expected to transition quite significantly specifically in the renewable space, the FGD space as well where critical thermal polluting plants might need equipment to probably ensure that they are running with more desulfurization and therefore the EPC players including the likes of BHEL . As a space it looks attractive with government initiatives, government capex. The entire renewable theme is expected to get pushed over the next few years, this is one mega theme that investors can probably look at. Live Events What is the pecking order like now given that all the big four are out with their numbers within banks that is, ICICI Bank , HDFC, and the disappointment that we saw from SBI as well as Kotak. Mayuresh Joshi: So, the bias still remains with ICICI Bank/Axis Bank because as a disclaimer we continue holding these stocks in both our domestic as well as global portfolios. Results were in line with estimates. The commentary was again in line with estimates and again a large part of the expectations from analysts is that over the next few quarters as we head into an interest rate cut cycle, the nims and spread should benefit quite significantly. Consciously even if you read through HDFC Bank 's commentary, the underwriting on advances growth has been consciously lowered to a large extent because they want to focus specifically in terms of both the cost to income as well as their asset quality on the balance sheet which has improved quite significantly over the last few quarters. The risk weighted assets as a percentage of their balance sheet. All these three banks probably carry are significant in terms of providing growth and impetus to the balance sheet compared to the rest of the bank. So, these three remain probably on top of our radar. Now, State Bank in my own personal opinion it was not a disappointing set. Earnestly if you probably look at how the advances growth has been, the cost to income ratio has been settled around 35 bps odd, the expectation is that asset quality pressures which have come off quite significantly with GNPA is at 1.82, net NPAs at 0.67 odd, they should come quite significantly or remain in an enhanced mode in terms of efficiency coming down as every passing quarter comes through and therefore from the public sector banks State Bank. So, the top large leadership banks is something that we continue to remain and keep our focus on.
Reuters
28-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
India's financial stocks fuel Nifty 50's March comeback, set for strong FY2026
March 28 (Reuters) - Shares of India's financial services sector companies recovered in March, leading the benchmark Nifty 50 index's comeback from a historic downturn and setting the stage for a robust fiscal year 2026. With the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate cuts looming, credit growth surging, and foreign inflows returning, financials are once again the market's hottest bet. Potential rate cuts and liquidity injection by the central bank are likely to improve the overall credit and deposit environment and earnings for banks in FY2026, Anand Rathi Research's analyst Kaitav Shah said. Financials (.NIFTYFIN), opens new tab, accounting for 37% weight in the Nifty 50 (.NSEI), opens new tab, jumped about 9% in March after three straight monthly losses. It helped the NSE benchmark index reverse losses in the fiscal year, after about $1 trillion in investor wealth was wiped out during a downturn in the second half. The Nifty 50 had touched a record high in September. In FY2025, financials gained nearly 20% and banks (.NSEBANK), opens new tab rose 9%, outperforming the Nifty 50's 5% rise. The sector has also benefited from foreign inflows, opens new tab returning in March after sustained selling. Still, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have offloaded Indian shares worth a record $26 billion since October, marking the highest outflows in a six-month period, pushing benchmark indexes into a correction territory in November and the broader markets into a bear market last month. For FY2026, the banking sector is expected to remain strong, with projected credit growth of 12-13% on strong services and retail demand. "Since banking is the ideal proxy to economic growth, it should see better credit and deposit growth in FY2026," said Mayuresh Joshi of financial services firm William O'Neil and Company. BNP Paribas analyst Santanu Chakrabarti echoed Joshi's sentiment. "Besides liquidity infusion, changes in non-bank lenders' risk weights, relaxed priority sector lending norms, and reduced foreign selling pressure keep our bullish FY2026 outlook intact." The RBI is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in April and again in August, easing funding costs and supporting credit expansion. Despite FPIs selling financial stocks worth $6.7 billion in FY2025, roughly 41% of total outflows, the sector ended the year higher on attractive valuations. The Nifty financial services index trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20x, below the 10-month average of 20.6x, suggesting undervaluation which could lead to further investments. ($1 = 85.5850 Indian rupees)
