Latest news with #MayureshJoshi
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Cautious on IT, bullish on hospitals and consumption themes: Mayuresh Joshi
Mayuresh Joshi from Marketsmith India suggests that despite global challenges like Trump's tariffs, Indian markets are responding maturely. He emphasizes the strength of domestic flows and the importance of long-term systematic investments. Joshi is optimistic about consumption-driven sectors, financials, and agrochemicals, while remaining cautious on IT due to global competition and the need for reinvention. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "In times like these, rather than getting shaken out, if you continue your systematic investments, they will yield results over time. So yes, while Trump tariffs took center stage this week, the markets have responded very maturely," says Mayuresh Joshi , Head Equity, Marketsmith yes, it was a roller-coaster week — one of the wildest rides you'd experience in any water park! The events that transpired, especially around Trump's tariffs, led to the correction we're currently the market's response has been quite mature, as you rightly pointed out. There's been no panic or abrupt sell-off. A large part of this resilience is due to strong domestic flows. The Indian retail investor seems to have figured out the secret sauce — staying invested for the long term. In times like these, rather than getting shaken out, if you continue your systematic investments, they will yield results over time. So yes, while Trump tariffs took center stage this week, the markets have responded very so much happening in both global and domestic markets. The tariff jitters continue, and uncertainties persist. On the domestic front, the first half of earnings wasn't great, but the second half is showing promise. FIIs haven't returned yet, so a clear direction for the domestic market is yes, that's the hope. Both urban and rural consumption are expected to make a strong comeback in the second half. For urban India, tax cuts are a booster. For rural India, better monsoons and higher farmgate prices for cash crops are leading to better realizations and a result, consumption is expected to pick up significantly. That's one leg of GDP growth. The second is investments — with government capex moving at a fast pace and private capex showing early signs of third leg, FDI and FPI flows, is lagging currently — mainly due to global uncertainties like Trump's tariff policies and weak earnings. However, if earnings start reviving and the tariff noise settles over the next 3–6 months, I don't see why FDI and FPI flows won't in a global context, is still a domestic-driven consumption economy. So even if investors are reallocating right now, I believe they'll come back in H2. Any non-structural market correction should be viewed as a buying opportunity — especially in quality sectors and stocks with leadership and earnings important economic event this week was the RBI 's credit policy. While rates were left unchanged, the Governor reiterated support for certainly a possibility. A 25-bps rate cut is still expected, possibly in the next policy or the one outlook depends on how global events unfold. Will the Fed move in September? What inflationary impact will Trump's policies have — not just in the US, but globally? How will he negotiate with India, China, and other BRICS nations?So yes, a 25-bps cut in the October policy ahead of the festive season is very much on the table. Let's see how the RBI navigates no one can predict the bottom. As our late founder often said, 'I've never seen a successful pessimist.'So I remain very optimistic about India over the next 5–10 years. It's still a fundamentally domestic-driven growth of Trump's policies, certain hospital stocks in healthcare can continue to do well. So can select pharma names — because manufacturing medicines cost-effectively inside the US isn't and consumption names also look attractive, especially domestic-focused value apparel brands, which could benefit from the rural and urban consumption recovery. FMCG is poised for a strong comeback. Agrochemical stocks too, due to strong monsoons and volume growth, may see improved operating leverage. Financials will also play a key role — as private capex returns, financials will support the broader yes, focus on domestic stories — consumption, financials, select autos, and agrochemicals. These areas are insulated from global noise like Trump tariffs and have solid earnings visibility. Don't get shaken by corrections. Instead, treat them as opportunities to enter stocks you may have missed healthcare, I'm positive on the hospital segment. The numbers have been stable and are expected to remain strong. These companies have adopted smart expansion strategies — both brownfield and greenfield — which keeps balance sheet leverage low. Average revenue per operating bed is improving, which boosts earnings the other hand, I remain cautious on IT. The sector still faces several headwinds. What seemed like a bright beacon a few decades ago now requires reinvention. Globally — including from Chinese companies — there's rising competition via AI-based platforms. AI is becoming the buzzword — be it generative AI, agentic AI, or agile IT companies need significant investment to stay relevant. The labor cost advantage they once enjoyed is diminishing as AI-driven models outperform legacy models. Until IT companies remodel and re-strategize, I'd remain circumspect. So for now, I'm avoiding the sector.
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Cautious on IT, bullish on hospitals and consumption themes: Mayuresh Joshi
Until IT companies remodel and re-strategize, I'd remain circumspect. So for now, I'm avoiding the sector. "In times like these, rather than getting shaken out, if you continue your systematic investments, they will yield results over time. So yes, while Trump tariffs took center stage this week, the markets have responded very maturely," says Mayuresh Joshi, Head Equity, Marketsmith India. How did you view the entire week? Yes, we faced a lot of challenges. It was a tricky week with so much news flow coming in from global markets. It was difficult to digest. But one thing I'd say — Indian markets now behave quite maturely, and we're seeing a rational approach. Mayuresh Joshi: Oh yes, it was a roller-coaster week — one of the wildest rides you'd experience in any water park! The events that transpired, especially around Trump's tariffs, led to the correction we're currently witnessing. However, the market's response has been quite mature, as you rightly pointed out. There's been no panic or abrupt sell-off. A large part of this resilience is due to strong domestic flows. The Indian retail investor seems to have figured out the secret sauce — staying invested for the long term. In times like these, rather than getting shaken out, if you continue your systematic investments, they will yield results over time. So yes, while Trump tariffs took center stage this week, the markets have responded very so much happening in both global and domestic markets. The tariff jitters continue, and uncertainties persist. On the domestic front, the first half of earnings wasn't great, but the second half is showing promise. FIIs haven't returned yet, so a clear direction for the domestic market is missing. Do you see the upcoming festive season as a ray of hope — particularly for consumption, autos, hotels, tourism, etc., with festivals starting from Raksha Bandhan? Mayuresh Joshi: Oh yes, that's the hope. Both urban and rural consumption are expected to make a strong comeback in the second half. For urban India, tax cuts are a booster. For rural India, better monsoons and higher farmgate prices for cash crops are leading to better realizations and income. As a result, consumption is expected to pick up significantly. That's one leg of GDP growth. The second is investments — with government capex moving at a fast pace and private capex showing early signs of third leg, FDI and FPI flows, is lagging currently — mainly due to global uncertainties like Trump's tariff policies and weak earnings. However, if earnings start reviving and the tariff noise settles over the next 3–6 months, I don't see why FDI and FPI flows won't in a global context, is still a domestic-driven consumption economy. So even if investors are reallocating right now, I believe they'll come back in H2. Any non-structural market correction should be viewed as a buying opportunity — especially in quality sectors and stocks with leadership and earnings visibility. Another important economic event this week was the RBI's credit policy. While rates were left unchanged, the Governor reiterated support for growth. Given the current inflation outlook, do you think RBI has room to cut rates? The next policy is due in October. Could there be a festive surprise in the form of a rate cut? Mayuresh Joshi: That's certainly a possibility. A 25-bps rate cut is still expected, possibly in the next policy or the one after. The outlook depends on how global events unfold. Will the Fed move in September? What inflationary impact will Trump's policies have — not just in the US, but globally? How will he negotiate with India, China, and other BRICS nations?So yes, a 25-bps cut in the October policy ahead of the festive season is very much on the table. Let's see how the RBI navigates this. Given how tricky markets are, investors are unsure about when to enter. They anticipate downtrends, but don't know where the bottom lies. If someone wants to invest now, what should their strategy be? Imagine I give you a blank canvas — how would you paint it? Mayuresh Joshi: Honestly, no one can predict the bottom. As our late founder often said, 'I've never seen a successful pessimist.' So I remain very optimistic about India over the next 5–10 years. It's still a fundamentally domestic-driven growth of Trump's policies, certain hospital stocks in healthcare can continue to do well. So can select pharma names — because manufacturing medicines cost-effectively inside the US isn't and consumption names also look attractive, especially domestic-focused value apparel brands, which could benefit from the rural and urban consumption recovery. FMCG is poised for a strong comeback. Agrochemical stocks too, due to strong monsoons and volume growth, may see improved operating leverage. Financials will also play a key role — as private capex returns, financials will support the broader yes, focus on domestic stories — consumption, financials, select autos, and agrochemicals. These areas are insulated from global noise like Trump tariffs and have solid earnings visibility. Don't get shaken by corrections. Instead, treat them as opportunities to enter stocks you may have missed earlier. Is there any particular sector you're focused on right now — and any you're avoiding? Mayuresh Joshi: Within healthcare, I'm positive on the hospital segment. The numbers have been stable and are expected to remain strong. These companies have adopted smart expansion strategies — both brownfield and greenfield — which keeps balance sheet leverage low. Average revenue per operating bed is improving, which boosts earnings potential. On the other hand, I remain cautious on IT. The sector still faces several headwinds. What seemed like a bright beacon a few decades ago now requires reinvention. Globally — including from Chinese companies — there's rising competition via AI-based platforms. AI is becoming the buzzword — be it generative AI, agentic AI, or agile IT companies need significant investment to stay relevant. The labor cost advantage they once enjoyed is diminishing as AI-driven models outperform legacy models. Until IT companies remodel and re-strategize, I'd remain circumspect. So for now, I'm avoiding the sector.
Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Maximum move in Paytm over; further rerating depends on Q2 results: Mayuresh Joshi
Mayuresh Joshi , Head Equity, Marketsmith India , says there has been a strong move in Paytm over the last three to six months and the market will now look out for the next quarter's numbers in terms of the next move and the next reratings for the stock. If they are able to replicate the performance, then that will probably do the trick. But till that point of time, a large part of the move has happened for Paytm already. Looking at IndusInd Bank and the jump up on the stock right now, it seems like the markets are liking Rajiv Anand at the helm at the bank? Mayuresh Joshi: No, I think that was expected to a certain extent and therefore, the kind of reaction that the stock has exhibited seems to be in the right direction. The next up move for the stock will now solely be based on numbers and the kind of transition that the new management will probably bring in. Productivity Tool Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide By Metla Sudha Sekhar View Program Finance Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By Dinesh Nagpal View Program Finance Financial Literacy i e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By CA Rahul Gupta View Program Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel By Neil Patel View Program Finance Technical Analysis Demystified- A Complete Guide to Trading By Kunal Patel View Program Productivity Tool Excel Essentials to Expert: Your Complete Guide By Study at home View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program Obviously, the kind of cleanup that has happened on the balance sheet when it comes to provisioning and recognition of asset quality pressures and therefore, starting with a clean slate with the new management, how they rebuild trust and how do numbers stack up, that next leg of the move or rerating of the stock will probably depend on all these factors put together. But yes, there are positive reactions to the announcement for IndusInd Bank. You track the auto space very closely. Do you think the weakest link for Tara Motors is JLR, and given all that is happening with regards to tariff, global tensions, etc, and a changing dynamic within the entire auto pack, will the market like PB Balaji heading JLR? Mayuresh Joshi: Ideally, they would, and again there were pluses and minuses as far as the acquisition is concerned. Obviously, they get a very strong hold in terms of the CV market when it comes to Europe, Latin America and the US as well. Therefore, the product mix will largely improve. The second element is that even within the domestic market, ICV is the intermediary market where Eicher Motors still has a huge say and more products are getting introduced, and filling in the product loopholes for Tata Motors . Acquisition itself is reasonable. Yes, it is a large acquisition, and there are no two ways about it, but the kind of revenue accretion that can come through can be a value addition as well. Live Events You Might Also Like: Antfin exits Paytm in Rs 3,800 crore bulk deal. What zero-Chinese ownership means for investors The minuses are huge acquisitions which means a huge upfront cost that needs to be played out. How the CV cycle will evolve specifically in terms of all the tariff impositions that have now happened is something that will play on numbers and volume and therefore these pluses and minuses will keep the stock in check. With Mr Balaji coming in, that is something the Street will take with both hands. But somewhere the uncertainty related to all these factors, where the positioning of the market is right now, makes me believe that the stock might be consolidating for a longer period. What is your take on Paytm because the stock is holding right now? Is it still a good opportunity to get in? Mayuresh Joshi: No, again, there is a decent set of numbers which the Street probably liked. Obviously, the supply has come through and that has got gestated if the block has probably happened and the next move will largely depend on how they replicate last quarter's numbers. If they are able to build on the solid gains that they probably achieved in the quarter gone by, the Street will probably rerate this counter. To a certain extent, the counter has got rerated. There has been a strong move over the last three to six months and the market will now look out for the next quarter's numbers in terms of the next move and the next reratings for the stock. Fingers crossed if they are able to replicate the performance and new-age businesses like Paytm and the replication of that on numbers will probably do the trick. But till that point of time, my own sense is that a large part of the move has happened for Paytm as we speak. You Might Also Like: Tata Motors signs MoU with Green Energy Mobility to supply e-buses to Tamil Nadu ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
Time of India
20-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Mayuresh Joshi on 3 sectors where earnings & valuation support can take stock prices higher
Mayuresh Joshi , Head Equity, Marketsmith India, says healthcare, particularly hospitals adopting asset-light models, shows earning stability with improved occupancy and revenue per bed. Select NBFCs with strong financials are poised for growth amid falling interest rates. Consumption-driven stocks like Vishal Mega Mart and V-Mart Retail could benefit from rebounding rural spending, exhibiting potential for volume and price gains. What are you making of this very range-bound trade that we have been stuck in for a while now? At the same time, once again, it is the broader markets wherein we are seeing movement and today unfortunately it is quite down. Where will the largecaps find the next set of triggers from? Mayuresh Joshi: The markets are reacting in terms of the geopolitics, specifically what's happening in West Asia. But there is some hope that if any news comes through in terms of de-escalation over the next few days, something which probably is assuming that the worst in terms of the conflict might be behind us, we will definitely come out of the range-bound trade that we are in. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Join new Free to Play WWII MMO War Thunder War Thunder Play Now Undo Obviously, within largecaps, the construct still remains positive in terms of select leadership BFSI stocks because the space generally looks geared up in terms of better earnings growth. Obviously, OMCs in the oil and gas space, become more of a tactical trade as we speak. But generally for largecaps, the mood has been pretty sanguine so far. It is the midcaps where the entire action might be over the next few quarters as earnings start coming back. So, midcaps and select leadership stocks might fare well where earnings are expected to hold up at least in a domestic context for the next few quarters. Within this lot of sector churning that is underway, which sector is poised for a good recovery? We just concluded the earning season as well. Is there any sector you will be watching closely for the next couple of quarters wherein earnings and valuation support can take the stock prices higher as well? Mayuresh Joshi: Healthcare as a space is where we believe stocks can do well selectively. Within healthcare, hospitals as a space has delivered a very decent set of numbers as far as Q4 is concerned and our take is that the asset light model that a lot of hospital stocks are embarking upon over the last few quarters has started yielding results both in terms of the average revenue per operating bed as occupancy rates are inching higher. We are probably seeing the average length of stay coming down as hospitals mature. And therefore, hospitals within healthcare as a space is where the earning stability might continue and a lot of hospitals are showing that earning strength specifically in their price strength as well as we see it in Marketsmith India. So, the ratings, rankings, institutional holding – all the elements that we follow, are getting exhibited in this space. Live Events You Might Also Like: How should you place your bets as Nifty makes a U-turn from 25,000? Vinay Rajani answers Certain hospital stocks like Kims, Fortis Healthcare , Narayana Hrudayalaya are where earning stability might continue over the next few quarters. The other space is obviously within BFSI where we have seen some strength in NBFC stocks. Our view is that select NBFC stocks might continue doing well. Therefore, in a falling interest rate scenario with the RBI frontloading 50 bps of rate cuts, the expectations is that in terms of stronger franchises with a better diversified borrowing mix, a better advanced mix, better capital adequacy and therefore a better take in terms of the overall balance sheet growth leading to better RoEs and ROAs, they can continue doing well. So, stocks like Shriram Finance are something we continue holding in our domestic and global portfolios. Last but not the least, a few of the consumption-driven stocks. With better monsoons, rural, semi-urban consumption which has started coming back should come back even more strongly in the second half and therefore for a few apparel makers Vishal Mega Mart, which just concluded a big block deal, V-Mart Retail, the same-store sales growth (SSG) has been pretty decent for these companies. It is a good mix for apparel, FMCG, and non-FMCG, the price points are appropriately placed and in tier II, tier III cities where the expectation is that if growth rebounds very strongly in terms of discretionary spending, these guys might benefit quite significantly on all parameters that we probably put through and therefore rating and rankings look superb. So, Vishal Mega Mart, V-Mart might be a couple of ideas on the semi-urban/rural discretionary spend which can exhibit better volume and price moves as far as balance sheets are concerned.
Economic Times
12-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Texmaco Rail could be railway sector's dark horse: Mayuresh Joshi
"The only issue with the manufacturing stocks per se is that the top line might grow but it has shown a slight sign of sluggishness as we speak in terms of execution and margins to a certain extent, to the likes of a Titagarh or even to the likes of a Texmaco Rail constraint to that 11% to 12% mark," says Mayuresh Joshi, Head Equity, Marketsmith India. ADVERTISEMENT What is it that you are making, still early details yet and we are getting takeaways from the cabinet meet which is currently underway on an approval of overs Rs 3,000 crore for railway projects. Mayuresh Joshi: Two things -- one, in terms of the approval ticker that you are just seeing on your screen that is something which is incrementally positive for these rail stocks and again the allocation that has been made in budgetary terms has been a decent one. So, whether you are talking about commissioning of new lines, changing from the gate system that you probably got, and expectations in terms of more coach is expected whether it is Vande Bharat or the metro coaches as well, so there is sufficient work at play. The only issue with the manufacturing stocks per se is that the top line might grow but it has shown a slight sign of sluggishness as we speak in terms of execution and margins to a certain extent, to the likes of a Titagarh or even to the likes of a Texmaco Rail constraint to that 11% to 12% mark. So, margin expansion beyond that seems improbable and therefore it is how much you execute which also is probably time bound to a certain extent, which means that there is a definite sense of earnings coming through with definite margins expected to come through. On the other hand, the other infrastructure or the support related stocks that you are speaking about, the likes of an IRCTC as an example, even the financing stocks as far as railways are concerned the whole expectations in the ecosystem in terms of the working capital cycle is something to be seen out for as well. So, again, they do give these selective sporadic moves. But are they structural in nature? My own sense is that because of the lumpiness in earnings, the earnings are always not reflected in a compounded demand on an annualised basis and therefore, they become very-very stock specific. From a momentum perspective, stocks can continue showing momentum in my opinion. And also, Tex Rail is one stock if they continue doing well in terms of execution, the kind of ecosystem that they have probably created and the expectations in terms of the balance sheet growth, specifically the recovery we have seen after covid and the sluggishness in the past two years, if they are able to overcome that, I think that probably can be a dark horse from the railway theme. ADVERTISEMENT What is your own sense because at a time when we are still awaiting some details coming in from US and China's talks in London and it seems like there is some headway definitely on the talks, but on the other hand you have companies like Maruti already slashing their production targets for their newest entrant in the e-club that is e-Vitara and they are talking about…, while they are going to be making up the targets eventually in the year for the next two to three months, they are actually scaling back. Mayuresh Joshi: No, so if you probably look at the proportion in terms of the EV cars or the EV platforms or the EV models as a percentage of the overall top line, it is still not a major component and therefore with this whole rare earth magnet issue that is expected to continue, if the resolution comes in as you are putting out, I think that is great news for global auto stocks, that is great news for the auto industry in general. But if this lingers on a tad a bit more, like Maruti has likewise put in his statement, maybe the short-term pain might be there. But as supply chains probably get worked out again, the second half there will be some element of recovery that one really expects. But if there is a resolution that comes through quicker than one really expects, the expectations in terms of normalisation of volumes specifically on new launches as far as EV cars are concerned, might actually continue doing well. ADVERTISEMENT Now in the Indian context, the expectation in terms of competition intensity, pricing, all that is going to play a big part in terms of how volume growth probably takes place and take shape as well and there is a huge ecosystem in terms of the appetite for EV cars and the adoption of EV infrastructure as well whether you are calling for fast chargers or fast charging stations as well. So, to that extent it is an evolvement as we speak and therefore within the space itself what we really continue to hold in our global portfolios within the PV space, M&M is something that we still continue liking and holding and within two wheelers TVS Motors. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
