Cautious on IT, bullish on hospitals and consumption themes: Mayuresh Joshi
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
"In times like these, rather than getting shaken out, if you continue your systematic investments, they will yield results over time. So yes, while Trump tariffs took center stage this week, the markets have responded very maturely," says Mayuresh Joshi , Head Equity, Marketsmith India.Oh yes, it was a roller-coaster week — one of the wildest rides you'd experience in any water park! The events that transpired, especially around Trump's tariffs, led to the correction we're currently witnessing.However, the market's response has been quite mature, as you rightly pointed out. There's been no panic or abrupt sell-off. A large part of this resilience is due to strong domestic flows. The Indian retail investor seems to have figured out the secret sauce — staying invested for the long term. In times like these, rather than getting shaken out, if you continue your systematic investments, they will yield results over time. So yes, while Trump tariffs took center stage this week, the markets have responded very maturely.There's so much happening in both global and domestic markets. The tariff jitters continue, and uncertainties persist. On the domestic front, the first half of earnings wasn't great, but the second half is showing promise. FIIs haven't returned yet, so a clear direction for the domestic market is missing.Oh yes, that's the hope. Both urban and rural consumption are expected to make a strong comeback in the second half. For urban India, tax cuts are a booster. For rural India, better monsoons and higher farmgate prices for cash crops are leading to better realizations and income.As a result, consumption is expected to pick up significantly. That's one leg of GDP growth. The second is investments — with government capex moving at a fast pace and private capex showing early signs of revival.The third leg, FDI and FPI flows, is lagging currently — mainly due to global uncertainties like Trump's tariff policies and weak earnings. However, if earnings start reviving and the tariff noise settles over the next 3–6 months, I don't see why FDI and FPI flows won't return.India, in a global context, is still a domestic-driven consumption economy. So even if investors are reallocating right now, I believe they'll come back in H2. Any non-structural market correction should be viewed as a buying opportunity — especially in quality sectors and stocks with leadership and earnings visibility.Another important economic event this week was the RBI 's credit policy. While rates were left unchanged, the Governor reiterated support for growth.That's certainly a possibility. A 25-bps rate cut is still expected, possibly in the next policy or the one after.The outlook depends on how global events unfold. Will the Fed move in September? What inflationary impact will Trump's policies have — not just in the US, but globally? How will he negotiate with India, China, and other BRICS nations?So yes, a 25-bps cut in the October policy ahead of the festive season is very much on the table. Let's see how the RBI navigates this.Honestly, no one can predict the bottom. As our late founder often said, 'I've never seen a successful pessimist.'So I remain very optimistic about India over the next 5–10 years. It's still a fundamentally domestic-driven growth story.Regardless of Trump's policies, certain hospital stocks in healthcare can continue to do well. So can select pharma names — because manufacturing medicines cost-effectively inside the US isn't feasible.Apparel and consumption names also look attractive, especially domestic-focused value apparel brands, which could benefit from the rural and urban consumption recovery. FMCG is poised for a strong comeback. Agrochemical stocks too, due to strong monsoons and volume growth, may see improved operating leverage. Financials will also play a key role — as private capex returns, financials will support the broader ecosystem.So yes, focus on domestic stories — consumption, financials, select autos, and agrochemicals. These areas are insulated from global noise like Trump tariffs and have solid earnings visibility. Don't get shaken by corrections. Instead, treat them as opportunities to enter stocks you may have missed earlier.Within healthcare, I'm positive on the hospital segment. The numbers have been stable and are expected to remain strong. These companies have adopted smart expansion strategies — both brownfield and greenfield — which keeps balance sheet leverage low. Average revenue per operating bed is improving, which boosts earnings potential.On the other hand, I remain cautious on IT. The sector still faces several headwinds. What seemed like a bright beacon a few decades ago now requires reinvention. Globally — including from Chinese companies — there's rising competition via AI-based platforms. AI is becoming the buzzword — be it generative AI, agentic AI, or agile AI.Indian IT companies need significant investment to stay relevant. The labor cost advantage they once enjoyed is diminishing as AI-driven models outperform legacy models. Until IT companies remodel and re-strategize, I'd remain circumspect. So for now, I'm avoiding the sector.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Mint
29 minutes ago
- Mint
After targeting India, Donald Trump mulls tariffs on China over Russian oil purchases, no final decision yet
S President Donald Trump is considering imposing tariffs on China over its purchases of Russian oil, in a move similar to the one recently taken against India, according to Vice President JD Vance. Speaking to Fox News, Vance said no final decision has been made but confirmed that the idea is under discussion. Earlier this week, Trump announced tariffs on India, citing its continued imports of Russian oil. The discussions reflect growing concern within Trump's circle over Beijing's role in supporting Moscow's economy amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. The measure would aim to pressure China to reduce its energy trade with Russia. Vance emphasised that the idea remains under consideration and no formal policy has been set. China has significantly increased its imports of discounted Russian crude since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, helping offset the impact of Western sanctions on Moscow. Washington has previously warned Beijing that such purchases undermine international efforts to isolate Russia economically. If enacted, new tariffs could mark an escalation in Trump's already tough trade stance toward China. The White House last week issued an Executive Order imposing an additional 25 percentage points in tariffs on all Indian goods, raising the total duty to 50%. The move, announced by Trump, targets India's continued imports of Russian oil, which the administration says undermine US foreign policy and national security interests. The new tariffs will take effect 21 days after the signing of the order, providing a brief window for India and Russia to potentially negotiate with Washington on the import taxes. White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro said India faced the steep hike due to its 'refusal' to halt purchases of Russian crude — a trade the US claims is helping fund Moscow's war in Ukraine. Since 2022, Russia's share of India's total oil imports has surged from 1.7% to 35.1%, making it India's largest oil supplier. The shift has been driven by discounted Russian crude, often capped at $60 per barrel, which India says is critical for its energy security. President Trump announced last week that the US would not engage in new trade negotiations with India until the tariff dispute is resolved. The Executive Order also allows for further expansion or reduction of tariffs depending on a country's alignment with US national security and foreign policy objectives. The penalty on India follows the administration's earlier trade actions against other countries but contrasts with a softer approach toward China. While Beijing currently faces a 30% tariff, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested its August 12 deadline could be extended if trade talks progress. If implemented as planned, the 50% tariffs mark one of the harshest trade measures taken by Washington against a major economic partner in recent years, potentially escalating tensions between two of the world's largest democracies.
The Hindu
29 minutes ago
- The Hindu
MEA to highlight bipartisan approach to India-U.S. relationship to Parliamentary Committee on External Affairs on Aug. 11
U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of additional tariffs on India is a result of 'flawed assumptions' and New Delhi is being dragged into a geopolitical tug of war in which it does not intend to participate, officials of the Ministry of External Affairs are poised to tell the Parliamentary Committee on External Affairs on Monday (August 11, 2025). The officials may also highlight the bipartisan nature of India-U.S. relationship and argue that ties prospered under 'both BJP and Congress-led governments'. The meeting of the Committee on External Affairs is being convened after the U.S. administration cited India's purchase of Russian oil as a trigger for additional 25% tariffs on top of the 25% 'reciprocal' tariffs announced before. In the meeting, the MEA team is expected to have a pragmatic approach to the latest challenges to the India-U.S. relationship and inform the Committee that despite the difficulties, India remains 'committed to engaging constructively' with the United States about the issues through 'dialogue and mutual respect'. 'Unilateral, punitive measures' It is learned that the Committee will be told that the U.S. decisions do not 'reflect the realities of global energy markets or India's sovereign choices' and that India considers the tariffs 'unilateral, punitive measures' that hurt global trade norms. The MEA team is expected to provide the Indian assessment of the motivation behind the actions of the U.S. President. The officials believe that the White House regards Russia's military campaign against Ukraine as an 'ongoing threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy' that requires 'strengthened measures'. Prior to the Executive Order signed by President Trump on August 6, 2025, India and the United States had been in negotiations for a 'fair, balanced and mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement'. The MEA team is expected to tell the MPs in the Parliamentary Committee about what is perceived as 'double standards' in U.S. policy regarding trade with Russia. The Committee will also receive a detailed presentation of the historical nature of India-U.S. relationship with an emphasis on 'shared democratic values, open societies, converging strategic and economic interests and robust people to people ties'. The officials are likely to provide an overview of the 'bipartisan' nature of the relationship and how under both BJP- and Congress-led governments, the relationship has been nurtured and 'deepened'. Similar consensus between the Republicans and the Democrats in the U.S. are also expected to be in focus during the discussion. The Committee members are also likely to hear about the support President Trump has provided to India's core concern of cross-border terrorism from Pakistan, especially after the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir. In this regard, President Trump's approval of extradition of 26/11 attack-linked Tahawwur Rana to India is also likely to be part of the presentation. A similar mention of the declaration of The Resistance Front (TRF) as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO) and (Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) is also expected during discussions at the Committee meeting.
Time of India
38 minutes ago
- Time of India
USCIS reverses policy which protected several children of green card applicants from ‘ageing out'
A recent announcement from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) will have far-reaching consequences for immigrants — including those on H-1B visas — who are waiting for green cards. The agency has narrowed the criteria used to determine whether a child can continue to qualify for a derivative green card under their parent's application. The change will apply prospectively to adjustment of status applications filed on or after Aug 15, 2025. Under the revised policy, hundreds of children will no longer remain eligible for their parent's green card queue once they turn 21 — when they 'age out.' The earlier policy, introduced under the Biden administration in Feb 2023, had provided certain children with protection even after their 21st birthday. The change will disproportionately affect the Indian diaspora, which faces one of the world's longest waits for an employment-based green card. The Child Status Protection Act (CSPA), enacted in 2002, prevents certain unmarried children of green card applicants from losing eligibility if they turn 21 during the lengthy process. The law uses a special age calculation based on 'visa availability' to freeze a child's age under immigration rules. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Europe Travel Hack That Saves You Hundreds on Trips! Undo From February 2023, USCIS had used the more generous 'Dates for filing chart' to determine visa availability, giving children a longer window to remain eligible as derivatives on their parent's application. Starting Aug 15, for adjustment of status filed after that date, USCIS will revert to the 'Final action dates chart' — typically less favourable — for calculating age under the CSPA. Immigration attorneys say that in practical terms, this revision means many children who would have been protected under the previous policy will now risk aging out and losing their path to permanent residency (green card). According to a March 2023 analysis by David J. Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, the employment-based green card backlog stood at 10.7 lakh for Indians in the employment linked (EB-2 and EB-3 categories). Cato projects that nearly 1.34 lakh children from these families could age out before a green card becomes available — and the more restrictive age calculation could push those numbers higher. Doug Rand, a former Department of Homeland Security official who helped craft the 2023 policy, criticised the reversal. 'It's such a petty and obnoxious thing to do. Of course, the Trump administration is causing fear and heartbreak at a massive scale, across the immigration system, and this may seem like a small thing in the grand scheme,' he said.
