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New York Times
3 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Answering crucial fantasy football draft questions at wide receiver
Wide receivers go under the microscope as our fantasy football roundtable series works through the skill positions, which started with the quarterbacks and running backs. As with the previous two position roundtables, The Athletic fantasy football crew of Jake Ciely, Michael Salfino, Andy Behrens and Dalton Del Don return to offer their opinions on hot-button questions at the WR position. Advertisement What are the offensive statistical expectations for lauded rookie Travis Hunter? Who are the WRs to target among the Top 15 in ADP in addition to those falling outside the Top 30? What is the best QB-WR stack to target in drafts? Read on for our answers to these questions, and stay tuned in later this week for our tight end roundtable. Note: All ADPs mentioned below are from Fantasy Pros. Ciely: The easy answer is CeeDee Lamb because he's done it before, but to be less obvious, I'll say Drake London. We need to find a wideout with the potential for 1500+ yards and 12+ touchdowns. It's far from likely, even with Michael Penix targeting London eleventy billion times down the stretch last season. Still, another 160 targets for London would allow him to improve on his 1,271 and 9 from last year, and if he reached the 175 mark like Chase did last season, a line of 120-1500-12 is in play. Salfino: Nico Collins. Last season, he had a 17-game pace of 96-1,425-10 with 153 targets. He basically missed six games as he got hurt very early in one game on a long TD. Collins had three explosive games (25+ PPR points), tied for second in the league. Behrens: The boring-yet-correct answer here is Lamb. He already has a WR1 season to his credit, so we don't need to speculate about his ceiling. Lamb is also tied to a fully functional quarterback, which cannot be said for every top-of-draft receiver. Del Don: Lamb has averaged 11.1 targets, 100 receiving yards and has been fantasy's WR1 during games with Dak Prescott over the past two seasons. His setup remains terrific, including the addition of George Pickens. The alternative answer here is Malik Nabers. I have both ranked ahead of Justin Jefferson. Advertisement Funston: London. He just logged perhaps the most unassuming Top 5 WR fantasy campaign in recent memory. He's probably right there with Nabers for the best odds to lead the NFL in Target%. He managed his Top 5 finish despite Kirk Cousins' mid-season crash at QB. Penix has a Howitzer attached to his shoulder, opening the entire field for London. The three-game sample of this duo at work last season was enticing, to say the least — combined 39 targets, 22 catches, 352 receiving yards, 2 TDs. Ciely: Prescott and Lamb or Jordan Love and Matthew Golden. Salfino: Nico Collins and C.J. Stroud. It's just last year's cheat sheet for Stroud, who was being drafted as the QB5 last year (hated that price). Now all those guys have run and hidden, the cowards, and I'm there to scoop up Stroud if I have Collins — basically whenever I feel like it. Behrens: Given the current contract-related staredown in Washington, it's never been easier to pair Terry McLaurin with Jayden Daniels. That's a stellar duo. It would be ridiculous if the team and player can't settle on a number soon. Del Don: The Lamb and Prescott pairing is nice, but give me Brian Thomas/Travis Hunter and Trevor Lawrence. The Jacksonville combo(s) is affordable, and I fully believe that Liam Coen will dramatically improve the Jaguars' offense. A Lawrence/BTJ/Hunter stack will help 'feed families' this season. Funston: Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton. I'm not a stack-or-die fantasy manager, but if I miss on an elite QB, I'd be good with a Nix/Sutton stack, especially if you can land Nix closer to QB10. If Nix goes off, there's very little chance Sutton will not be part of the fireworks show. In fact, when Nix found his stride in his rookie campaign from Weeks 8-18, he was QB6 in that span, and Sutton was WR7. Ciely: London would be my answer, but since he was the No. 1 WR answer (above), I'll say Davante Adams. He was putting up WR1 numbers with the Jets and Aaron Rodgers (and Garrett Wilson), which makes me believe there is a non-zero chance Adams can outscore Puka Nacua, regardless of Nacua's health. No, I wouldn't put an even-money bet on it, but Adams showed he's still playing at a peak level, and only scored one fewer PPG than Nacua, despite the differences in offensive effectiveness. Advertisement Salfino: Easy, it's London. His full-season pace in the three games with Penix was 221 targets, 124-1,995-11. Those aren't typos. Behrens: I will gladly take Jaxon Smith-Njigba several spots above ADP. He's coming off a 100-catch season and should find himself used all over the formation in the year ahead. JSN is actually a sneaky-good bet to lead the NFL in receptions. Del Don: Nabers earned the second-most targets in the league last year as a 21-year-old rookie despite missing two contests. He now gets a real quarterback upgrade while remaining the only game in town for the Giants. Nabers is my favorite to be fantasy's No. 1 overall pick in 2026. If I miss on Nabers, then it's Brian Thomas. Funston: London, for the reason I and others have already mentioned. That said, I also like a JSN pick at the back end of the Top 15. Ciely: Similar to my RB roundtable answer, there isn't a 'must avoid' player in the Top 15, but I have almost no shares of Ladd McConkey, and that was before Keenan Allen's arrival. I love McConkey and was extremely high on him last year. Nevertheless, I think McConkey surprised many people and skewed the perception of his ceiling. I still believe McConkey can do even better, but I don't see a ceiling much higher than his rookie debut, and it would take a decent target bump. Given the Chargers' offense, I think 130 could be McConkey's target ceiling, and while that would make him a back-end WR1, he'd slide in only a few spots higher than last season. Honestly, I'm being nitpicky here, trying to find an answer. Salfino: Nacua absolutely despises touchdowns — hates them with the intensity of a thousand suns. Hates them to a degree commensurate with Davante Adams' love for them. Behrens: I can't say there's anyone I'm actively avoiding inside the Top 15, but I don't have Adams ranked quite that high on my personal board. However, that's more about my belief in guys like McLaurin and Mike Evans, and less about Adams specifically. Ideally, he would not be in a situation where his value was tied to a 37-year-old quarterback dealing with a medley of minor injuries. Advertisement Del Don: Amon-Ra St. Brown is going too high as a Top 5 WR in such a loaded tier. The Lions lost Ben Johnson, Detroit will score fewer points in 2025, and Jameson Williams will continue to emerge. I'm not a St. Brown hater; I just slightly prefer other WRs in the same ADP range. Funston: Nico Collins. He's averaged more than four DNPs a season in his four-year career; he's been under a 20% target rate in each of the past two seasons (his 18.3% mark last season ranked 38th at WR); Houston might have the league's worst offensive line; and at least until Joe Mixon proves his foot is not an issue or rookie Jayden Higgins proves he's a force to be reckoned with (for the record, I do like his odds of that), there's no reason a defense shouldn't put extra emphasis on shutting Collins down. Ciely: Can I just share a list? Rome Odunze, Jakobi Meyers, Matthew Golden, Jayden Higgins, Ricky Pearsall and Cooper Kupp (he's so cheap that the risk is worth it, and you can make him one of your first drops if he looks toast). Salfino: Is Jauan Jennings' ADP of WR43 some kind of joke? In his 10 starts, Jennings went 59-767-6. Over 17 games, that works out to 100-1,304-10. Behrens: There's a very real chance Golden emerges quickly as Green Bay's top target. He's certainly worth a modest reach in drafts. Golden has been the subject of several tantalizing camp hype videos, for what it's worth, and everyone surrounding the team seems to be buzzing about his talent. Del Don: Calvin Ridley should continue to dominate targets in Tennessee, but with a big upgrade at quarterback with Cam Ward. Ridley led the league in air yards last season, but just 56% were catchable. Also, Emeka Egbuka's ADP (WR47) looks like a misprint — he's my WR34. Funston: Pearsall. Deebo Samuel is gone, and we can't assume Brandon Aiyuk will hit the ground at full speed upon his return, even if he's back by the Week 6 target date the team is suggesting. And then there's Jennings, who wants a new contract while also dealing with a calf injury. Pearsall should have no problem seeing a heavy share of targets and, after being shot in the chest just before the start of his rookie season, he left us with a couple of games to dream on at the end of the 2024 campaign — a combined 14 catches, 210 receiving yards, 2 TDs in Weeks 17-18. As you can see below, Salfino was most bullish about Hunter's first-year fantasy contributions, projecting a line that would yield 254.5 PPR points — which would have landed him at No. 8 at WR last season, ahead of Garrett Wilson (253.9) and behind Lamb (263.4). That said, Del Don initially responded to the question with this: '120/2000/20 (in all seriousness, make Hunter a priority target!)' I asked him for an 'all-seriousness' revision of his numbers, and he came back with a line that would have landed him as the No. 20 WR last season (216.1 PPR points, just ahead of Jakobi Meyers). Funston's line was the lowest at 194 PPR points, which would have returned a WR32 value last season. Ciely: It's Kupp. If he's even 90% of what we used to know, Kupp benefits from Klint Kubiak's system, which can maximize wideout upside, especially with a narrow two-receiver focus. Kubiak enjoys deploying a tight end (or two) in the short area, often including a running back coming out of the backfield, which frees his top two wideouts downfield. This should help Kupp's late-career concern with a lack of separation while improving his bounce-back potential. Advertisement Salfino: Kupp was hurt last year with an ankle injury, and I refuse to believe he's done entering his age-32 season. I don't care how much the Seahawks want to run; they will throw 525 passes. Who is going to stop Kupp from getting at least 135 of them? Behrens: Diggs is the only name on this list with a realistic shot to function as his team's No. 1 receiver. His recovery from ACL surgery seems to have been pretty close to a best-case scenario, too. If Diggs and the Patriots can keep each other happy, it's not difficult to imagine a path to a useful fantasy season. Del Don: Diggs. He looks good returning from ACL surgery and should dominate targets as Drake Maye's clear No. 1 receiver. Kupp and Samuel are leaving ideal offensive environments, while Allen is 33 years old and loses fantasy value, now slated to play the 'Z' position (and no longer the slot) in Los Angeles. Funston: Diggs can be a legit WR1 for his team, whereas that role doesn't appear to be in the offing for the others, though I suppose maybe for Deebo if McLaurin is a lengthy holdout (I wouldn't bet on it). (Top photo of CeeDee Lamb: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images) Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
New York Times
4 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Answering crucial fantasy football draft questions at running back
After spotlighting the quarterback position, our first fantasy football roundtable series shifts focus to the running backs. The Athletic fantasy football crew of Jake Ciely, Michael Salfino, Andy Behrens and Dalton Del Don return to offer their opinions on hot-button questions at the RB position. What are the statistical expectations for lauded rookie Ashton Jeanty? Who are the RBs to target among the Top 12 in ADP in addition to those falling outside the Top 20? Who is the biggest backup lottery ticket? Read on for our answers to these questions, and stay tuned in later this week for our wide receiver and tight end roundtables! Note: All ADPs mentioned below are from Fantasy Pros. All members of our fantasy panel appear optimistic for a big year from Jeanty, though Ciely's projections are more conservative than others when it comes to how the rookie RB will be used in the passing game. Behrens was the most optimistic in the group in that regard and also gave him the highest total TD projection, with 14, which would have had him trailing only seven RBs last year (regular season) — behind Bijan Robinson and ahead of David Montgomery. Ciely: I'd say 9.5. Did you know that, over the past three seasons, Breece Hall (2022) is the only RB to finish among the Top 25 (in half-PPR FPPG) who failed to play at least 10 games in a season. Plenty of running backs missed three to five games, but a lost season is far from as frequent as most believe. So, that's where I get my 'random' over/under here, even with McCaffrey's injury history. Advertisement Salfino: I'll go with 8.5, given his average since 2020 is 9.5. Behrens: Let the record show McCaffrey is actually the healthiest running back on the Niners' depth chart as of this writing. He's doing just fine. CMC did not limp into camp with any preexisting injuries. That said, I am not risking my money on his calves and hamstrings unless the number is 7.5 or less. Del Don: He's averaged about 12 games played per season throughout his career, and I'm buying CMC in 2025, so let's say 12.5? McCaffrey's Achilles problem was (hopefully) healed through stem cell treatment; he's a maniac when it comes to his body, and all offseason health reports have been overwhelmingly positive. Of course, he's 29 and has elevated risk, but I'm willing to take it on. Funston: I'll say 6.5. CMC played seven games or fewer in three of his past five seasons, a timeframe that is a lot more relevant for a nearing-age-30 RB with a substantial injury history than those first three campaigns of his career when he played 16 games in each — the halcyon days! Bottom line: CMC will be somebody else's dice roll, not mine. Ciely: McCaffrey. He has the potential to be the top player in fantasy. Period. So, if we're getting him at a discount from the top tier of running backs and mid-to-late first rounder, I'll take that risk. Outside of him, I have a lot of Kyren Williams, even before the contract extension. The main concern with Rams' running backs is the potential for a few bad games turning the page to the next option, since Sean McVay can turn good running backs into great ones. Williams' new contract points to that risk being extremely unlikely … at least for 2025. Salfino: In Flex 10 (three WRs and a flex), none. In Flex 9 (two WRs and a flex), any of them. Know your format! But in the spirit of the question, Jonathan Taylor and Jacobs seem like values. Advertisement Behrens: No one ever fights you for Jacobs, despite the excellent team context and his history of high-level production. Jacobs is just 27, and he's finished as a Top 5 fantasy back in two of the past three seasons. He's also ranked among the NFL leaders in missed tackles in every healthy season of his career, so he's not simply a high-volume plodder. Del Don: Chase Brown, who was fantasy's RB5 after Zack Moss was injured in Week 8 last season. All offseason signs point to the Bengals again giving Brown a heavy workload in 2025, and it's a terrific situation in a high-scoring offense. Don't worry about Brown ceding some passing-down work, as third downs don't often lead to targets anyway. Funston: Kyren Williams is RB12 by ADP, and he sometimes drops even a little more than that. Either way, I'll gladly accept him in that value range, as he's ranked as my RB8, which is still a discount on his Top 6 fantasy finishes in the past two seasons. I don't know why the fantasy community likes to predict the demise of Kyren, but he's once again set for one of the league's largest workloads, and he just landed a three-year deal, which pretty much solidifies that notion. Ciely: I'm not hard-fading any of them, but there are two I've rarely drafted: Taylor and Jeanty. That's only because someone else is always more willing. I don't understand how people are worried about Saquon Barkley, CMC and Derrick Henry but not Taylor, who hasn't played a full season in three years. As for Jeanty, I love him, but I'm just a tad concerned that the lack of passing game volume and touchdowns will limit his ceiling and ability to reach the Top 5. Salfino: Obviously, McCaffrey, as he is old, was very unproductive last year, had a weird injury with an unknown prognosis (both Achilles were injured) and lost a ton of speed (3.5 mph from 2023, according to NGS, a 17% decline). Advertisement Behrens: De'Von Achane is a teacup-sized back coming off a season of weird usage. There's always someone in a draft who likes him a full round earlier than I do. If I'm drafting a back in the second round, I need to believe he can plausibly finish as the overall RB1. That's not Achane. Del Don: Taylor went off at the end of last season, but his receiving work is extremely limited, and he's quietly missed more games than McCaffrey over the last three seasons. Taylor's expected fantasy points per game dropped 5 points during Anthony Richardson starts last season, and Joe Flacco is gone. Funston: How does the saying go? 'Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me three times, shame on…' As a three-time injury bust, I'm avoiding CMC. Simple as that. Sure, if he plays a full season, I might regret my stance. But, in my best Allen Iverson voice, 'We're talking a full season!' Ciely: Jaydon Blue. While I don't believe Blue is built to be a 300-touch option, I do believe in his ability. If Javonte Williams still doesn't look anything like his pre-injury self, Blue can take advantage and lead this backfield, especially with his passing game value. Salfino: Now we're talking. I don't really target anyone, but the best value at that range for me is Jordan Mason at RB34. I guarantee 10+ TDs. Behrens: I've now completed enough drafts to firmly declare Isiah Pacheco is my guy. He's healthy following a season lost to injury and unthreatened by any other names in the team's backfield hierarchy. We shouldn't need to convince you that Kansas City's offense can deliver an every-week fantasy RB. Del Don: TreVeyon Henderson is my RB16, and I often target him and RJ Harvey. Rookies take more patience but frequently pay off with the biggest reward when it matters most in the fantasy season. Henderson will share carries with Rhamondre Stevenson, but the explosive rookie looks like the new Jahmyr Gibbs. Go get him. Advertisement Funston: I'd been targeting Cam Skattebo, but I don't like that he's dealing with a hamstring injury, especially since we're talking about a whole lot of hamstring with this guy. I like the other rookies mentioned here, too, in Henderson and Blue. I'm also happy to take Jaylen Warren at his RB31 price, as he's always been a helpful fantasy asset, even in a short-side platoon role. His experience could lead to his biggest role yet, with Najee Harris off to L.A. Sure, Kaleb Johnson could be a 1-for-1 replacement for Najee. But there's also a reasonable chance he takes time with the NFL learning curve, allowing Warren to eat for a good chunk of the season. Ciely: There are several, and some are obvious, like Trey Benson. While the big names get attention, I'd like to mention DJ Giddens, who would have Top 25 upside if Taylor misses time for the fourth-straight season. Tahj Brooks, who has a lot of similarities to Chase Brown and is similar to Giddens, could carry Top 25 value. Salfino: The best backup RB in the NFL by a mile is Sean Tucker of the Buccaneers — 6.2 yards per carry; 56% success rate (average is 47%); over 9.0 yards per target as a receiver. Plus, he had an elite broken tackle rate of once every 10 carries. Behrens: Ray Davis was a fun watch as a rookie, and he delivered proof-of-concept in the one game James Cook missed due to injury, piling up 152 yards against the Jets. If Davis happens to find significant touches this season, he'll gain must-start status. Del Don: Isaac Guerendo probably would get injured himself quickly if it happens, but he'd be a legit Top 5 fantasy RB any week he's starting in San Francisco. There are many other intriguing options, and my favorites include Will Shipley, Keaton Mitchell, Jarquez Hunter, Brashard Smith, DJ Giddens, Sean Tucker and Tahj Brooks. Funston: Jaylen Wright. Miami has ranked first and sixth, respectively, in FPPG at RB in each of the past two seasons. And we know head coach Mike McDaniel relishes speed, an attribute that positions Wright (4.38 40) as the heir apparent in the backfield should something happen to Achane. In addition to his wheels, Wright offers decent physicality in his 5-foot-10, 210-pound frame and upside as a pass catcher — Miami has also been Top 5 in RB receptions each of the past two campaigns. Ciely: Cook, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Alvin Kamara — but all super close. Cook is merely for touchdown regression, but I still think he's an RB1. Betting a near-full season from Conner again seems ill-advised. Hubbard had inefficiency issues down the stretch. And, Kamara is the main weapon for the Saints — even in a terrible offense, he should be a fringe RB1. Advertisement Salfino: I hate all these guys at their ADPs, and Cook and Conner were great to me in 2024. But it's never the player, it's the price. Seriously, I would not draft any of these guys at their ADPs. I'll go with the order in which they're being drafted, but how can you draft Cook there when he lost 40% of snaps to Ty Johnson in an elimination game? Behrens: Hubbard, Conner, Kamara, Cook Del Don: Conner, Hubbard, Cook, Kamara Funston: Kamara, Conner, Hubbard, Cook — On the most likely end of the spectrum, I just think Kamara is too central to the Saints offense. It's hard to imagine them having any kind of success without getting the ball in his hands as much as possible. And, yes, he's had some injuries in his career, but he's played no fewer than 13 games in any of his eight seasons, the kind of CV that CMC can only dream of. As for the least likely end of the spectrum, it's easy to imagine Cook losing a half dozen touchdowns from his total of 18 a season ago, especially if they get the stouter Ray Davis more involved in goal-line situations. (Top photo of Chase Brown: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images) Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
New York Times
5 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Answering crucial fantasy football draft questions at quarterback
As per tradition, our first fantasy football roundtable of the summer will spotlight the QB position. For this exercise, we have enlisted a standout crew of contributors to The Athletic fantasy football, including Jake Ciely, Michael Salfino, Andy Behrens and Dalton Del Don. Which elite-level quarterbacks are you willing to pay up for? Who are the non-elites at those positions who have you most intrigued? Who is the biggest QB X-factor? Read on for our answers to these questions, and stay tuned in later this week for our running back, wide receiver and tight end roundtables! Note: All ADPs mentioned below are from Fantasy Pros. Photo by Elsa / Getty Images Ciely: Jalen Hurts, far and away. Joe Burrow is in a tier of his own for me, below the other four in Tier 1. So, if the ADP comes at a discount because of whatever worry people have over Hurts' rushing value, I'll buy all day. Do you know the last time Hurts hasn't rushed for 10+ touchdowns or averaged 20+ FPPG? Oh, just his rookie season, before he was the starter. All four years since then … check and check. Salfino: The only plausible pick here is Burrow, going to the Ja'Marr Chase manager for the stack. Maybe add Tee Higgins, too, with the first three picks. That'd be scary to face. All the other early-round QBs are less stackable and are just bad choices in 1-QB leagues. What problem are you solving? If you're Flex 9 (two WRs and a flex, three WRs max), you are behind the eight ball at RB and must leave the draft with a top RB room. If you are Flex 10 (three WRs and a flex, four-plus WRs), you are a top receiver short. For what? QBs have basically even touches, and thus their scoring is within a narrow range, and a QB emerges from the late rounds/waivers to be a top scorer every year. Lean into this! Advertisement Behrens: With all due respect to Jayden Daniels, Burrow and Hurts, I've got Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in a tier of their own at QB. Those two have combined to deliver several all-time scoring seasons at the position. Jackson's two best years have been historic outliers. I'll happily take him at the top of the third round. Del Don: Hurts. Regression is coming for the Eagles' passing attack after Philadelphia posted the second-lowest pass rate since 2011 last season. Plus, the tush-push is a TD cheat code. Funston: Daniels. His ability to keep his offense on the field — Commanders led NFL with 66 plays per game, and Daniels was second to Hurts among QBs with 55 rushing first downs — was remarkable and certainly maddening for opposing defenses. I reserve the right to change my mind if Washington doesn't solve for Terry McLaurin soon, but assuming Scary Terry is in the lineup come September, I absolutely think Daniels has No. 1 overall QB potential — he produced at that elite level over his final eight full games of his rookie campaign (including the postseason and excluding his half-game in Week 18). Photo by Justin Casterline / Getty Images Ciely: It's easily Justin Fields. The last time Fields played 15 games, he averaged 19.6 fantasy points and was the QB6 overall and in FPPG. That was also the only season Fields played more than 13 games. So, there is your risk. I'm not even bringing passing into the conversation because 1) in fantasy, you don't need to be a great passer to be a fantasy stud and 2) Fields is better than people give him credit for (as in, he's not terrible). If Fields throws for mid-2000 yards (no, not even 3000+ yards) with high-teen touchdowns (again, not even 20+), he'll be a Top 10 quarterback with his added rushing. However, he could also get hurt a few games in and be lost for the season. Advertisement Salfino: It's obviously Anthony Richardson. He could be out of the league, essentially, by Week 4, or the QB6 or so in fantasy for as many weeks as he can manage to stay healthy. However, he doesn't seem to have the body to absorb the punishment he'll take as a runner. Behrens: Well, the floor for Caleb Williams involves dozens of sacks, stalled drives, disgusting possessions and perhaps a potential benching to reset. But the ceiling in Ben Johnson's offense seems pretty fantastic — potentially the greatest passing season in Bears history (a shockingly low bar), along with rushing upside. I can imagine anything from QB28 to QB5. Del Don: Richardson still somehow had the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback during a nightmare season last year, and he's just three days older than Cam Ward. Richardson still possesses legit fantasy-QB upside, but his scary floor is being benched for Daniel Jones. Funston: Fields. Jake has already laid out the case for Fields' floor/ceiling volatility range, but it's worth also mentioning that if the Jets feel like they have an otherwise competitive team, and Fields is holding them back from the wins column, Tyrod Taylor is a very experienced backup who notably has produced a better winning percentage in his starts than his team's winning percentage in games he didn't start in every season he's made starts in his career. Photo by Mike Carlson / Getty Images Ciely: Outside of Fields? It's Williams and (deep breath) Richardson. With Williams, it's simply a matter of chasing upside. I never aim to draft QB10 or 12. I want someone with a Top 5 ceiling, even if they bust. Unless you're in SuperFlex, I'm going Ricky Bobby — 'First or last.' I'll draft a top-tier QB or wait until the end game and double-dip with a Williams, Drake Maye, Jordan Love, even Richardson, who, if healthy, is Fields 2.0 (actually with even more passing concerns but great rushing upside). Advertisement Salfino: Trevor Lawrence. He has elite weapons and a top QB coach. Why is Williams ranked ahead of him? Everything you can convince yourself about Williams, you can say about Lawrence, and Lawrence has already had a year as the QB7 in fantasy. Williams doesn't want to run. Look for Lawrence in Liam Coen's system to have more rushing yards than Baker Mayfield did for Coen last year (378 with three rushing scores). Behrens: No one wants to hear it, but Lawrence has sneaky appeal. Everyone seems bullish on Brian Thomas, Travis Hunter and Brenton Strange, yet nobody wants their quarterback. Lawrence has never had a receiving room as good as this year's version. He's also finished as high as QB7 in his career, so it's not as if he's never helped us. Del Don: J.J. McCarthy (+6) just edges out Fields (+5). McCarthy gets a Kevin O'Connell offense indoors with terrific weapons. Vikings quarterbacks have been fantasy's QB6 over the past three seasons, and McCarthy has more rushing upside than Kirk Cousins or Sam Darnold. Funston: McCarthy. I already wrote about McCarthy's sleeper appeal, but in that write-up, I didn't mention that the draft community is buying Justin Jefferson as the WR2, Jordan Addison as WR37 (despite an impending three-game suspension) and T.J. Hockenson as TE6. Faith is shown in the Vikings' skill position players, though McCarthy (QB19) isn't seeing the same love. Kevin O'Connell turned a washed-out Sam Darnold into QB6 last year and made him rich. O'Connell's track record with QBs is exemplary. McCarthy is the best kind of fantasy 'backup' in 1-QB leagues, where you've waited until late to address your QB room. Photo by Justin Edmonds / Getty Images Ciely: Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa. Back to my Top 5/not wanting the QB12 argument, neither brings a Top 5 ceiling without major changes and high-HIGH-volume passing. The first two years of Herbert aren't needed and won't be how the Chargers' offense runs. Tagovailoa's peak is 17.8 FPPG, which doesn't even crack the Top 10 most years; Herbert hasn't cracked the Top 10 since his second season. Salfino: Of course, my rankings are in pencil at the moment, though my rationale in the profiles isn't. Adjusting for ADP, where smaller differences are way more meaningful near the top of the queue, I'll say Patrick Mahomes (ADP: 6, my QB12). He's the reverse Tom Brady, who was a fantasy non-factor despite being great the first six years of his career, then exploded into a fantasy force. Mahomes started that way, and now he is basically 2004 Brady. Meh. He has four 25+ point fantasy games the past two seasons combined. Brock Purdy has seven. Justin Herbert has four and goes roughly three rounds later in drafts. Advertisement Behrens: Someone is always willing to pay a Top 8 price for Bo Nix, but that's much too rich for me. He was often a rough watch last season, and not just in the early weeks. I simply don't think he did enough to separate himself in fantasy terms from the other rookie QBs last season, excluding Daniels. It won't surprise me in the least if Nix is outscored by Drake Maye in 2025. Del Don: Jared Goff is due for touchdown regression, and he'll find life harder without OC Ben Johnson and center Frank Ragnow, while playing many more games outdoors in 2025. Paying for quarterbacks who don't run at all is a risky bet, especially following an outlier season like Goff's. Funston: I doubt I will have any shares of C.J. Stroud. He, undoubtedly, throws a beautiful ball. But aesthetics aside, he'll likely be playing behind one of the league's worst offensive lines again, and his backfield support is on shaky ground, given Joe Mixon's foot injury. Stroud was one of the most pressured QBs last season, leading to the second-most sacks (52) and fourth-most interceptions (12), and his best weapon, Nico Collins, is such an obvious threat that I don't see how he doesn't see as much defensive attention as any WR in the league. Stroud's ceiling for 2025 reminds me of the movie 'Being John Malkovich' … Photo by Justin Casterline / Getty Images Ciely: Fields and Love (or Purdy) Salfino: Fields and Lawrence Behrens: Dak Prescott and Maye Del Don: Fields and Purdy Funston: Daniels and Love (Top photo of Joe Burrow: Bill Streicher / Imagn Images) Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
New York Times
19-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Middle infield sleepers: Jeremy Peña, Connor Norby and more value picks for fantasy baseball 2025
If you love a bargain — and who doesn't? — you've come to the right place. We tasked our staff of fantasy baseball experts with a mental trip around the diamond to come up with a sleeper — defined here as anyone who is believed to return a healthy value over ADP cost — among starting pitchers, corner infielders, middle infielders and outfielders. Advertisement Our staff of sleeper selectors includes Eno Sarris, John Laghezza, Michael Salfino, Owen Poindexter, Greg Jewett, Scott Engel and Andrea Arcadipane. Here are our staff middle infield sleepers for 2025: (Note: ADP data in parentheses below is courtesy of FantasyPros) He's only 24 and was once considered a better prospect than Juan Soto. The upside is his July and August: .337 with eight homers and 10 steals in 47 games. His Statcast expected stats (which factor in contact quality, trajectory and frequency) rank in the upper third and are obviously higher than that when looking only at the middle infield crowd. (Michael Salfino) Labeling him a sleeper may not be accurate, but he could be on the cusp of taking the next step in his development. He posted 15 home runs and 11 stolen bases in his first full season of the majors. He also scored 85 runs while driving in 57 across his 150 games, accruing 637 plate appearances. Winn took over as the leadoff hitter in June. He hit first in the lineup in 98 of his last 100 starts, scoring 69 runs with 13 home runs, 39 RBI, and four stolen bases in six attempts. Fantasy managers would prefer seeing him be more aggressive on the bases, and Winn agrees. He's striving for 30-to-40 steals in 2025. Some growing pains and adjustments were required in the second half of 2024, but his swinging strike percentage remained stable, and he increased his hard contact along with his contact in the strike zone in September. Hopefully, this sows the seed for success in 2025, which may yield 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases with runs upside based on his lineup position. It's not too shabby for a player with an ADP of 183.6 at FantasyPros. (Greg Jewett) India is a steal for on-base percentage as the leadoff hitter for the Royals. With the Royals now in a competitive window, India should have consistent opportunities for stolen bases and run-scoring. Additionally, the Royals indicated they are looking to test India at positions beyond second base (potentially outfield), which will provide positional flexibility. In terms of expectations, India walks consistently and strikes out less than average. Last season, he did a great job of reducing his Whiff% and making more contact in-zone. He performs well against all pitch types, uses the whole field and has some power. (Andrea Arcadipane) After showing much promise in 2023, Gelof got the opportunity to play regularly over a full year last season and flopped. He posted an alarming 34.4 K% and an ugly .270 OBP. But the A's allowed him to stay in the lineup and work through his issues, and Gelof still hit 17 homers and stole 25 bases. He was ready to head into the offseason to make significant adjustments, and let's not forget that the 25-year-old was a .291 career hitter in the minors. Gelof is not even being drafted as a top-25 second baseman, and a rebound year is indeed possible. The counting stats could be impressive if he makes more frequent contact. (Scott Engel) Norby is more of a deep league play but deserves to be more than a draft-day afterthought. His strikeout issue is real, but so is his power, as evidenced by a 14.8% barrel rate and nine homers (and nine doubles) in 45 MLB games last year. Add in double-digit steals, and you have a surprisingly useful player going in the dregs of the draft. The park and supporting cast are less than ideal, but he should hit in the top half of the lineup all year if he's healthy. (Owen Poindexter) Estrada just screams, 'Buy last year's fantasy trash. After coming off back-to-back .260 BA, 14 HR, 21 SB fantasy campaigns, now 28-year-old Estrada experienced a throwaway season in 2024, mired with wrist injuries and poor production. A career .262 hitter entering 2024, Estrada's batting average took a nosedive along with everything else on the spreadsheet. Except now he's going +100 picks later and playing in Coors for a Rockies' team without a true OBP threat or prototypical leadoff hitter. (John Laghezza) (Top photo of Connor Norby: Samuel Corum / Getty Images)
