Answering crucial fantasy football draft questions at running back
What are the statistical expectations for lauded rookie Ashton Jeanty? Who are the RBs to target among the Top 12 in ADP in addition to those falling outside the Top 20? Who is the biggest backup lottery ticket? Read on for our answers to these questions, and stay tuned in later this week for our wide receiver and tight end roundtables!
Note: All ADPs mentioned below are from Fantasy Pros.
All members of our fantasy panel appear optimistic for a big year from Jeanty, though Ciely's projections are more conservative than others when it comes to how the rookie RB will be used in the passing game. Behrens was the most optimistic in the group in that regard and also gave him the highest total TD projection, with 14, which would have had him trailing only seven RBs last year (regular season) — behind Bijan Robinson and ahead of David Montgomery.
Ciely: I'd say 9.5. Did you know that, over the past three seasons, Breece Hall (2022) is the only RB to finish among the Top 25 (in half-PPR FPPG) who failed to play at least 10 games in a season. Plenty of running backs missed three to five games, but a lost season is far from as frequent as most believe. So, that's where I get my 'random' over/under here, even with McCaffrey's injury history.
Advertisement
Salfino: I'll go with 8.5, given his average since 2020 is 9.5.
Behrens: Let the record show McCaffrey is actually the healthiest running back on the Niners' depth chart as of this writing. He's doing just fine. CMC did not limp into camp with any preexisting injuries. That said, I am not risking my money on his calves and hamstrings unless the number is 7.5 or less.
Del Don: He's averaged about 12 games played per season throughout his career, and I'm buying CMC in 2025, so let's say 12.5? McCaffrey's Achilles problem was (hopefully) healed through stem cell treatment; he's a maniac when it comes to his body, and all offseason health reports have been overwhelmingly positive. Of course, he's 29 and has elevated risk, but I'm willing to take it on.
Funston: I'll say 6.5. CMC played seven games or fewer in three of his past five seasons, a timeframe that is a lot more relevant for a nearing-age-30 RB with a substantial injury history than those first three campaigns of his career when he played 16 games in each — the halcyon days! Bottom line: CMC will be somebody else's dice roll, not mine.
Ciely: McCaffrey. He has the potential to be the top player in fantasy. Period. So, if we're getting him at a discount from the top tier of running backs and mid-to-late first rounder, I'll take that risk. Outside of him, I have a lot of Kyren Williams, even before the contract extension. The main concern with Rams' running backs is the potential for a few bad games turning the page to the next option, since Sean McVay can turn good running backs into great ones. Williams' new contract points to that risk being extremely unlikely … at least for 2025.
Salfino: In Flex 10 (three WRs and a flex), none. In Flex 9 (two WRs and a flex), any of them. Know your format! But in the spirit of the question, Jonathan Taylor and Jacobs seem like values.
Advertisement
Behrens: No one ever fights you for Jacobs, despite the excellent team context and his history of high-level production. Jacobs is just 27, and he's finished as a Top 5 fantasy back in two of the past three seasons. He's also ranked among the NFL leaders in missed tackles in every healthy season of his career, so he's not simply a high-volume plodder.
Del Don: Chase Brown, who was fantasy's RB5 after Zack Moss was injured in Week 8 last season. All offseason signs point to the Bengals again giving Brown a heavy workload in 2025, and it's a terrific situation in a high-scoring offense. Don't worry about Brown ceding some passing-down work, as third downs don't often lead to targets anyway.
Funston: Kyren Williams is RB12 by ADP, and he sometimes drops even a little more than that. Either way, I'll gladly accept him in that value range, as he's ranked as my RB8, which is still a discount on his Top 6 fantasy finishes in the past two seasons. I don't know why the fantasy community likes to predict the demise of Kyren, but he's once again set for one of the league's largest workloads, and he just landed a three-year deal, which pretty much solidifies that notion.
Ciely: I'm not hard-fading any of them, but there are two I've rarely drafted: Taylor and Jeanty. That's only because someone else is always more willing. I don't understand how people are worried about Saquon Barkley, CMC and Derrick Henry but not Taylor, who hasn't played a full season in three years. As for Jeanty, I love him, but I'm just a tad concerned that the lack of passing game volume and touchdowns will limit his ceiling and ability to reach the Top 5.
Salfino: Obviously, McCaffrey, as he is old, was very unproductive last year, had a weird injury with an unknown prognosis (both Achilles were injured) and lost a ton of speed (3.5 mph from 2023, according to NGS, a 17% decline).
Advertisement
Behrens: De'Von Achane is a teacup-sized back coming off a season of weird usage. There's always someone in a draft who likes him a full round earlier than I do. If I'm drafting a back in the second round, I need to believe he can plausibly finish as the overall RB1. That's not Achane.
Del Don: Taylor went off at the end of last season, but his receiving work is extremely limited, and he's quietly missed more games than McCaffrey over the last three seasons. Taylor's expected fantasy points per game dropped 5 points during Anthony Richardson starts last season, and Joe Flacco is gone.
Funston: How does the saying go? 'Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me three times, shame on…' As a three-time injury bust, I'm avoiding CMC. Simple as that. Sure, if he plays a full season, I might regret my stance. But, in my best Allen Iverson voice, 'We're talking a full season!'
Ciely: Jaydon Blue. While I don't believe Blue is built to be a 300-touch option, I do believe in his ability. If Javonte Williams still doesn't look anything like his pre-injury self, Blue can take advantage and lead this backfield, especially with his passing game value.
Salfino: Now we're talking. I don't really target anyone, but the best value at that range for me is Jordan Mason at RB34. I guarantee 10+ TDs.
Behrens: I've now completed enough drafts to firmly declare Isiah Pacheco is my guy. He's healthy following a season lost to injury and unthreatened by any other names in the team's backfield hierarchy. We shouldn't need to convince you that Kansas City's offense can deliver an every-week fantasy RB.
Del Don: TreVeyon Henderson is my RB16, and I often target him and RJ Harvey. Rookies take more patience but frequently pay off with the biggest reward when it matters most in the fantasy season. Henderson will share carries with Rhamondre Stevenson, but the explosive rookie looks like the new Jahmyr Gibbs. Go get him.
Advertisement
Funston: I'd been targeting Cam Skattebo, but I don't like that he's dealing with a hamstring injury, especially since we're talking about a whole lot of hamstring with this guy. I like the other rookies mentioned here, too, in Henderson and Blue. I'm also happy to take Jaylen Warren at his RB31 price, as he's always been a helpful fantasy asset, even in a short-side platoon role. His experience could lead to his biggest role yet, with Najee Harris off to L.A. Sure, Kaleb Johnson could be a 1-for-1 replacement for Najee. But there's also a reasonable chance he takes time with the NFL learning curve, allowing Warren to eat for a good chunk of the season.
Ciely: There are several, and some are obvious, like Trey Benson. While the big names get attention, I'd like to mention DJ Giddens, who would have Top 25 upside if Taylor misses time for the fourth-straight season. Tahj Brooks, who has a lot of similarities to Chase Brown and is similar to Giddens, could carry Top 25 value.
Salfino: The best backup RB in the NFL by a mile is Sean Tucker of the Buccaneers — 6.2 yards per carry; 56% success rate (average is 47%); over 9.0 yards per target as a receiver. Plus, he had an elite broken tackle rate of once every 10 carries.
Behrens: Ray Davis was a fun watch as a rookie, and he delivered proof-of-concept in the one game James Cook missed due to injury, piling up 152 yards against the Jets. If Davis happens to find significant touches this season, he'll gain must-start status.
Del Don: Isaac Guerendo probably would get injured himself quickly if it happens, but he'd be a legit Top 5 fantasy RB any week he's starting in San Francisco. There are many other intriguing options, and my favorites include Will Shipley, Keaton Mitchell, Jarquez Hunter, Brashard Smith, DJ Giddens, Sean Tucker and Tahj Brooks.
Funston: Jaylen Wright. Miami has ranked first and sixth, respectively, in FPPG at RB in each of the past two seasons. And we know head coach Mike McDaniel relishes speed, an attribute that positions Wright (4.38 40) as the heir apparent in the backfield should something happen to Achane. In addition to his wheels, Wright offers decent physicality in his 5-foot-10, 210-pound frame and upside as a pass catcher — Miami has also been Top 5 in RB receptions each of the past two campaigns.
Ciely: Cook, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Alvin Kamara — but all super close. Cook is merely for touchdown regression, but I still think he's an RB1. Betting a near-full season from Conner again seems ill-advised. Hubbard had inefficiency issues down the stretch. And, Kamara is the main weapon for the Saints — even in a terrible offense, he should be a fringe RB1.
Advertisement
Salfino: I hate all these guys at their ADPs, and Cook and Conner were great to me in 2024. But it's never the player, it's the price. Seriously, I would not draft any of these guys at their ADPs. I'll go with the order in which they're being drafted, but how can you draft Cook there when he lost 40% of snaps to Ty Johnson in an elimination game?
Behrens: Hubbard, Conner, Kamara, Cook
Del Don: Conner, Hubbard, Cook, Kamara
Funston: Kamara, Conner, Hubbard, Cook — On the most likely end of the spectrum, I just think Kamara is too central to the Saints offense. It's hard to imagine them having any kind of success without getting the ball in his hands as much as possible. And, yes, he's had some injuries in his career, but he's played no fewer than 13 games in any of his eight seasons, the kind of CV that CMC can only dream of. As for the least likely end of the spectrum, it's easy to imagine Cook losing a half dozen touchdowns from his total of 18 a season ago, especially if they get the stouter Ray Davis more involved in goal-line situations.
(Top photo of Chase Brown: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
Spot the pattern. Connect the terms
Find the hidden link between sports terms
Play today's puzzle
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New York Times
a few seconds ago
- New York Times
Dodgers place Max Muncy on injured list with right oblique strain
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers, mired in a six-week slump and fresh off blowing what was once a nine-game division lead, are now without one of the anchors of their lineup after Max Muncy was placed on the injured list with what manager Dave Roberts called a Grade 1 right oblique strain. Muncy first reported discomfort in his side after a session in the batting cage on Wednesday afternoon, leading the team to scratch him from that afternoon's lineup. Now, with the first-place San Diego Padres in town for the first of six games in a 10-day span, they put Muncy on the shelf for what should drag on longer than that. Advertisement While Roberts said 'I don't think anyone expects it to be season-ending,' there's no clear timeline for when the two-time All-Star third baseman could return to the Dodgers' lineup. It's an ominous development for a group that already cratered when Muncy missed five weeks with a bone bruise in his left knee, ranking 28th in the majors in OPS (.656) and dead last in runs scored (90) in Muncy's absence. Since Muncy's return on Aug. 4, the Dodgers have ranked fourth in baseball with an OPS of .836. The prodigious slugger had taken off offensively this season, as his 144 OPS+ in 347 plate appearances this year would represent his highest full-season mark since his 2018 breakout campaign. Among third basemen with that much playing time this season, Muncy's .880 OPS trails only Boston's Alex Bregman and Cleveland's José Ramírez. 'It's certainly a tough loss,' Roberts said. 'I think it's just, guys got to continue to perform to their abilities. It's hard to kind of backfill Max, what he brings as far as the plate discipline, the slug, the on-base, all that stuff. I feel good about our lineup, the guys that we have, and they've just got to go out there and take good at-bats. That's kind of all we can do right now.' Muncy missed a significant chunk of 2024 with a strained right oblique, a stint that lasted from mid-May to mid-August in part because the injury also included a dislocated rib that required chiropractic intervention. 'From what I hear, it's not as bad as it was last year,' Roberts said. The Dodgers claimed journeyman infielder Buddy Kennedy off waivers Friday to take Muncy's spot on the active roster. Kennedy, on his sixth organization, is expected to split time with rookie infield prospect Alex Freeland at third base in the interim while fellow third base options Kiké Hernández and Tommy Edman remain on the injured list until at least some time in September. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
Associated Press
a few seconds ago
- Associated Press
Juli Inkster wanted a tune-up for Senior Open. She nearly set an LPGA record
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Juli Inkster went to The Standard Portland Classic to face some competition ahead of the U.S. Senior Women's Open. The 65-year-old Hall of Famer nearly wound up setting an LPGA record. Inkster opened with a 69 and was poised to become the oldest player in LPGA history to make a 36-hole cut until consecutive bogeys on her back nine led to a 74. She was at 1-under 143, and it was looking unlikely for her to be among the top 65 and ties to make the weekend. JoAnne Carner was 64 when she made the cut in the 2004 Chick Fil-A Charity Championship. 'I frigging love JoAnne Carner,' Inkster said. 'Yeah, just kind of means that I have a passion for the game. I love the game. You know, I'm really happy I played this week. Kind of when I signed up was kind of like, `What are you doing?' 'I was free, I was out there with Hannah Green and Stacy (Lewis) and had a great time,' she said. 'Just love watching the young kids swing. It's so impressive. I think the game is in a really good shape and happy to be here.' Inkster was competing at an LPGA event for the first time since 2022. She was asked what it was like when players recognized her. 'Most of them think I am Joanne Carner,' Inkster said. She was disappointed at her finish, especially the way she struggled off the tee toward the end. Along with the two bogeys, she said she played the final two par 5s sloppily. Still, there were few regrets. The U.S. Senior Women's Open is next week at San Diego Country Club. 'I think it was really good for me to play, whether I win or lose next week, whatever,' Inkster said. 'I'm glad I put myself out there.' ___ AP golf:
New York Times
a few seconds ago
- New York Times
The Cubs and Pete Crow-Armstrong insist everything is fine: 'I don't think there's any worry in the world.'
CHICAGO – The Chicago Cubs want you to believe that everything is fine. Pete Crow-Armstrong's MVP campaign continues to lose steam. The clamoring for a Kyle Tucker contract extension has certainly died down. An underwhelming trade deadline exposed some weaknesses in Chicago's farm system as well as the big-market franchise's lack of imagination. Advertisement In losing four of their previous five series, the Cubs went from tied for first place to eight games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central race. No matter what they say, the frustration from star players such as Crow-Armstrong and Tucker is visible in the helmet flings and bat-slamming tantrums. Scattered boos from the crowd of 40,044 were audible at the end of Friday afternoon's 3-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field, yet another indicator of a club surrounded by negativity. 'The Cubbies are going to keep playing the same baseball we played all year,' Crow-Armstrong said. 'It's been an interesting two weeks, but we're fine. I don't think there's any worry in the world.' Crow-Armstrong delivered that hopeful message after a morning meeting with Cubs manager Craig Counsell – and before a defeat that encapsulated so much of what has recently gone wrong. A listless lineup left Crow-Armstrong stranded at third base after his double in the second inning. Desperate to generate more offense, he got thrown out at second base while trying to stretch an RBI single into a double, ending the fourth inning. He started a rally in the seventh inning, getting hit by a pitch and scoring on Matt Shaw's sacrifice fly, but the Cubs couldn't knock out the Pirates with one big swing. Those missed opportunities framed the ninth inning, when Cubs closer Daniel Palencia watched as Jack Suwinski launched a 101 mph fastball into the left-field bleachers for a solo homer and a one-run lead, which happens when a pitching staff has little margin for error. Still amped up and trying to make something happen in the ninth inning, Crow-Armstrong hit a leadoff single and attempted to steal second base, only to get tagged out when the momentum from his headfirst slide carried him past the bag. Advertisement One more postgame concern would be the knee that Crow-Armstrong, a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder, banged while trying to make a diving catch in the seventh inning. The ball instead dropped for a double that put the Pirates ahead 2-1, forcing the Cubs to again play catch-up. 'It becomes the self-inflected pressure when you feel like you're not playing your part and contributing,' Crow-Armstrong said. 'At the end of the day, I think that's a bit of a more selfish approach. As Couns' has been able to remind me – and JT (Justin Turner) or whoever I've talked to – it's always just about what else I have to offer. 'That's the hard part about this game. You might not be getting the action in center field and feeling like you're contributing. You may not be making the right decisions on the base paths, like I have kind of shown recently. So when stuff starts to kind of pile up like that, it sucks.' Not panicking is the proper response. The Cubs still have 41 games remaining, which represents a quarter of their season. They began the day with playoff probabilities that ranged from 99.7 percent to 96.5 percent, according to the projections run by Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. That optimistic outlook is mostly based on the club's strong showing in April and May, as well as its ability to stay afloat amid injuries and underperformance. 'There's this tendency to make everything sound worse than it is in our game,' Counsell said. 'That's just the nature of it when it's every day.' The games, though, are played by people, and not on computers, which makes the whole thing feel more fragile. 'Consistency is something that we have to offer,' Counsell said. 'You can't fall into (thinking) it's that bad. You can't fall into that thought because nothing bad has happened. You get trapped into results. Of course, we know results are what matter here. This is a results business. You understand that. But I think for us to focus on results is harmful. Advertisement 'Focus on the things that contribute to us being good. Those are the right things to focus on. Those things make you better. It's hard. I get it, it's hard. But for those guys in there, you got to keep them on that, man, because that's what's going to get you to a better place.' Crow-Armstrong downplayed the significance of popping into Counsell's office before Friday's game, saying that he often meets with the manager. Crow-Armstrong had gone 1-for-20 in his previous five games and posted a .193 OPS over a 14-day period. He has not hit a home run since July 23. Counsell described their interactions as 'general talks' that are 'kind of about baseball, but more about life.' 'Sometimes, it's just to shoot the s—,' Crow-Armstrong said. 'Other times, it's to have some real conversations. He's got a lot to provide for a guy like me. He's shown more support in me than just about anybody in the baseball world. I go see him all the time just because I know he's got my back and my best interests in mind.' This is still a learning experience for Crow-Armstrong, 23, whose rapid development into an All-Star performer changed the contours of this season, fueling hopes that the Cubs could become a legitimate World Series contender. While that possibility has not been foreclosed, it's hard to consider the Cubs as a serious playoff heavyweight when Crow-Armstrong isn't the most breathtaking player on the field. 'I still have, however, many freaking weeks left in the season,' Crow-Armstrong said. 'It's still a lot of time to begin to produce again. It's just wanting to go up there every day, and treating every day like you got another chance to do something new.' (Top photo by) Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
