Latest news with #MikeDolan
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Morning Bid: Get set for 3-day obstacle course
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets World markets have hunkered down for three days of economic health checks, corporate readouts and policy decisions that may define the remainder of the summer, with U.S. trade worries easing somewhat following a series of framework deals that should enable better planning ahead. Global stocks and U.S. futures flatlined on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve due to hold the line in interest rates again later in the day just as U.S. GDP and jobs updates stream in alongside the first set of megacap earnings from Microsoft and Meta. The dollar took a breather too after a strong two-day rally. I'll review today's news and then discuss why the International Monetary Fund's upgraded forecast for the global economy on Tuesday suggests the world is navigating Washington's trade war better than many had feared, for better or worse. * The big macro market mover late Tuesday was a sharp drop in Treasury yields ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting and the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement. This followed strong demand at a series of hefty debt auctions this week, most notably record take-up of 7-year notes on Tuesday. The drop in 10-year yields to their lowest point since July 3 was all the more impressive against the surge in crude oil prices to their highest level in over a month. * The second quarter U.S. GDP estimate now takes center stage, with the narrower-than-forecast June trade deficit released on Tuesday pushing up the Atlanta Fed's estimate of growth to 2.9% from 2.4% earlier. Other releases showed U.S. June job openings softening but consumer confidence brightening this month, with the monthly payrolls and June PCE inflation gauge due on Friday * The Fed is expected to stand pat later despite likely dissents from President Donald Trump's two appointees on the board. The Bank of Canada is likely to hold steady too. The Bank of Japan delivers its verdict on Thursday. While the trade picture appears to be clearing up for monetary policymakers ahead of Friday's deadline for trade deals, the inflation fallout remains foggy. * With investors deep in the weeds of the earnings season, attention turns squarely to the artificial intelligence theme after the bell on Wednesday with Microsoft and Meta's updates. Apple and Amazon are due Thursday. UPS and Whirlpool lost more than 10% on Tuesday amid tariff-related hits. In Europe, pharma giant Novo Nordisk was still reeling from a near 25% share price plunge on Tuesday - its biggest ever one-day drop - after it slashed its outlook amid the stiff competition facing its main obesity drug. Today's Market Minute * U.S. and Chinese officials agreed to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce on Tuesday, following two days of what both sides described as constructive talks aimed at defusing an escalating trade war between the world's two biggest economies. * U.S. President Donald Trump said a trade deal with India has yet to be finalised and warned of possible higher tariffs ahead of an August 1 deadline to seal an agreement. * Trump's trade tariffs are ramping up the cost of importing already-pricey cocoa and hurting the competitiveness of local factories versus Canadian and Mexican outfits that supply the U.S., according to conversations with 11 industry executives, representatives, experts and traders. * Retail investors are often late to Wall Street parties, only catching the rally once "smart money" is looking for the exit. But that doesn't appear to be the case this time around, claims ROI columnist Jamie McGeever. * If you consider it good practice to consult more than one news source, you may have been confused by the reporting of the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index release. And, writes Income Securities Advisor publisher Marty Fridson, the various interpretations of how that report affected stock prices might have truly left you scratching your head. Chart of the day U.S. President Donald Trump's approval rating dropped another one percentage point to 40% over the second half of July, the lowest of his second term in office, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. As ever, the partisan split was extreme - with 83% of Republicans and just 3% of Democrats approving of his performance. About one-third of independents approved. Overall, 38% of respondents approved of Trump's handling of the economy and 43% of respondents approved of his record on immigration. Today's events to watch * ADP's U.S. July private sector payrolls (8:15 AM EDT), US Q2 GDP estimate (8:30 AM EDT) June pending home sales (10:00 AM EDT); Mexico Q2 GDP (8:00 AM EDT) * Bank of Canada policy decision (9:45 AM EDT) * Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee policy decision (2:00 PM EDT) and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell (2:30 PM EDT) * U.S. Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement (8:30 AM EDT) * U.S. corporate earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Ford, Kraft Heinz, eBay, Prudential Financial, Verisk, MGM Resorts, Hershey, Humana, Ventas, Equinix, Altria, Western Digital, Cognizant, Lam Research, Smurfit Westrock, Albermarle, Everest, Align, AvalonBay, FirstEnergy, Bunge, Fortive, ADP, IDEX, F5, Garmin Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan; Editing by Frances Kerry)
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Morning Bid: Dollar rejuvenated
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets The dollar is on course for its best week of the year, as unfolding U.S. trade deals are succeeding in raising tariffs without attracting much retaliation or causing major economic damage so far. A weekend agreement by the European Union to accept a 15% U.S. tariff hike, with promises of hefty spending on U.S. energy and arms to boot, saw the dollar notch its best day since May against the euro. Sustained dollar gains are a mixed blessing for Wall Street stocks and for President Donald Trump's administration, as it sees dollar depreciation as an integral part of tackling trade deficits and boosting competitiveness. I'll review today's market news and then look at whether the dollar's considerable tariff risk premium may be dissipating as trade deals get done. * The dollar rebound comes as the Federal Reserve starts its two-day policy meeting, though with no change in rates expected this week as eyes drift to its September gathering instead. A big week for labor market data kicks off with the release of U.S. June job openings, and then we'll see June goods trade, which will figure into the week's second-quarter U.S. GDP report. * In the thick of the corporate earnings season - with four big tech megacaps reporting this week and the likes of UPS, Merck and Boeing out later today - Wall Street indexes eked out new records on Monday. U.S. futures were positive again ahead of Tuesday's bell, with European and Chinese stocks rebounding too and only Japan bucking the trend. * Treasury markets were steady after hefty debt auctions on Monday. The Treasury announced plans to borrow $1.007 trillion in the third quarter, largely in line with forecasts though likely frontloaded with bill sales. Details of the quarterly refunding will be released on Wednesday. Along with the Fed meeting, bonds kept a close eye on higher crude oil prices after Trump set a new deadline of "10 or 12 days" for Russia to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine or face more sanctions on both Moscow and buyers of its oil exports. Today's Market Minute * U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators met for a second day of talks in Stockholm to defuse the bilateral trade war between the world's two biggest economies. The meetings are expected to agree another 90-day extension of a tariff truce struck in mid-May. * South Korea's Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said he would seek a mutually beneficial trade deal when he meets U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for talks this week. * U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly shortened his deadline for hitting Russia with the most severe sanctions on its oil exports to date. While the market has called the president's bluff thus far, the sheer scale of the threat may force investors to start pricing in this meaningful tail risk, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. * The earnings season is ramping up, and investors are once again focusing on whether companies will beat or miss expectations. However, Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim Klement claims the major driver of share prices can be found in the bond market. Chart of the day Dollar selling has abated in recent weeks, but the weekend U.S.-EU trade deal has catapulted it higher across the board as investors start to remove a tariff risk premium dogging the currency all year. The dollar's DXY index surged more than 1% on Monday, its biggest one day gain in more than two months, and has added to that on Tuesday. After just two days, it's on course for its best week of the year. Today's events to watch * U.S. June goods trade balance (8:30ED AM T), June retail/wholesale inventories (8:30 AM EDT) May house prices (9:00 AM EDT), July consumer confidence (10:00 AM EDT) June JOLTS job openings data (3:00 PM EDT) Dallas Federal Reserve July service sector survey (3:30 PM EDT) * International Monetary Fund releases its update World Economic Outlook (9:00 AM EDT) * U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet for a second day in Stockholm * Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee starts its two-day meeting on interest rates, decision Wednesday * U.S. corporate earnings: UPS, Merck, Boeing, PayPal, Starbucks, Visa, Corning, UnitedHealth, Procter & Gamble, Stanley Black & Decker, Sysco, Incyte, Norfolk Southern, Booking, Ecolab, Carrier, PPG, Regency Centers, Caesars, Royal Caribbean, American Tower, CBRE, Teradyne, Mondelez, BXP, Seagate, DTE * U.S. Treasury sells $44 billion of 7-year notes, $30 billion of 2-year floating rate notes Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (by Mike Dolan; editing by Sharon Singleton) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Morning Bid: Dollar rejuvenated
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets The dollar is on course for its best week of the year, as unfolding U.S. trade deals are succeeding in raising tariffs without attracting much retaliation or causing major economic damage so far. A weekend agreement by the European Union to accept a 15% U.S. tariff hike, with promises of hefty spending on U.S. energy and arms to boot, saw the dollar notch its best day since May against the euro. Sustained dollar gains are a mixed blessing for Wall Street stocks and for President Donald Trump's administration, as it sees dollar depreciation as an integral part of tackling trade deficits and boosting competitiveness. I'll review today's market news and then look at whether the dollar's considerable tariff risk premium may be dissipating as trade deals get done. * The dollar rebound comes as the Federal Reserve starts its two-day policy meeting, though with no change in rates expected this week as eyes drift to its September gathering instead. A big week for labor market data kicks off with the release of U.S. June job openings, and then we'll see June goods trade, which will figure into the week's second-quarter U.S. GDP report. * In the thick of the corporate earnings season - with four big tech megacaps reporting this week and the likes of UPS, Merck and Boeing out later today - Wall Street indexes eked out new records on Monday. U.S. futures were positive again ahead of Tuesday's bell, with European and Chinese stocks rebounding too and only Japan bucking the trend. * Treasury markets were steady after hefty debt auctions on Monday. The Treasury announced plans to borrow $1.007 trillion in the third quarter, largely in line with forecasts though likely frontloaded with bill sales. Details of the quarterly refunding will be released on Wednesday. Along with the Fed meeting, bonds kept a close eye on higher crude oil prices after Trump set a new deadline of "10 or 12 days" for Russia to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine or face more sanctions on both Moscow and buyers of its oil exports. Today's Market Minute * U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators met for a second day of talks in Stockholm to defuse the bilateral trade war between the world's two biggest economies. The meetings are expected to agree another 90-day extension of a tariff truce struck in mid-May. * South Korea's Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said he would seek a mutually beneficial trade deal when he meets U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for talks this week. * U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly shortened his deadline for hitting Russia with the most severe sanctions on its oil exports to date. While the market has called the president's bluff thus far, the sheer scale of the threat may force investors to start pricing in this meaningful tail risk, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. * The earnings season is ramping up, and investors are once again focusing on whether companies will beat or miss expectations. However, Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim Klement claims the major driver of share prices can be found in the bond market. Chart of the day Dollar selling has abated in recent weeks, but the weekend U.S.-EU trade deal has catapulted it higher across the board as investors start to remove a tariff risk premium dogging the currency all year. The dollar's DXY index surged more than 1% on Monday, its biggest one day gain in more than two months, and has added to that on Tuesday. After just two days, it's on course for its best week of the year. Today's events to watch * U.S. June goods trade balance (8:30ED AM T), June retail/wholesale inventories (8:30 AM EDT) May house prices (9:00 AM EDT), July consumer confidence (10:00 AM EDT) June JOLTS job openings data (3:00 PM EDT) Dallas Federal Reserve July service sector survey (3:30 PM EDT) * International Monetary Fund releases its update World Economic Outlook (9:00 AM EDT) * U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet for a second day in Stockholm * Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee starts its two-day meeting on interest rates, decision Wednesday * U.S. corporate earnings: UPS, Merck, Boeing, PayPal, Starbucks, Visa, Corning, UnitedHealth, Procter & Gamble, Stanley Black & Decker, Sysco, Incyte, Norfolk Southern, Booking, Ecolab, Carrier, PPG, Regency Centers, Caesars, Royal Caribbean, American Tower, CBRE, Teradyne, Mondelez, BXP, Seagate, DTE * U.S. Treasury sells $44 billion of 7-year notes, $30 billion of 2-year floating rate notes Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (by Mike Dolan; editing by Sharon Singleton) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
a day ago
- Business
- Reuters
Morning Bid: Dollar rejuvenated
LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets The dollar (.DXY), opens new tab is on course for its best week of the year, as unfolding U.S. trade deals are succeeding in raising tariffs without attracting much retaliation or causing major economic damage so far. A weekend agreement by the European Union to accept a 15% U.S. tariff hike, with promises of hefty spending on U.S. energy and arms to boot, saw the dollar notch its best day since May against the euro. Sustained dollar gains are a mixed blessing for Wall Street stocks and for President Donald Trump's administration, as it sees dollar depreciation as an integral part of tackling trade deficits and boosting competitiveness. I'll review today's market news and then look at whether the dollar's considerable tariff risk premium may be dissipating as trade deals get done. * The dollar rebound comes as the Federal Reserve starts its two-day policy meeting, though with no change in rates expected this week as eyes drift to its September gathering instead. A big week for labor market data kicks off with the release of U.S. June job openings, and then we'll see June goods trade, which will figure into the week's second-quarter U.S. GDP report. * In the thick of the corporate earnings season - with four big tech megacaps reporting this week and the likes of UPS, Merck and Boeing out later today - Wall Street indexes eked out new records on Monday. U.S. futures were positive again ahead of Tuesday's bell, with European and Chinese stocks rebounding too and only Japan bucking the trend. * Treasury markets were steady after hefty debt auctions on Monday. The Treasury announced plans to borrow $1.007 trillion in the third quarter, largely in line with forecasts though likely frontloaded with bill sales. Details of the quarterly refunding will be released on Wednesday. Along with the Fed meeting, bonds kept a close eye on higher crude oil prices after Trump set a new deadline of "10 or 12 days" for Russia to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine or face more sanctions on both Moscow and buyers of its oil exports. Today's Market Minute * U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators met for a second day of talks in Stockholm to defuse the bilateral trade war between the world's two biggest economies. The meetings are expected to agree another 90-day extension of a tariff truce struck in mid-May. * South Korea's Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said he would seek a mutually beneficial trade deal when he meets U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for talks this week. * U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly shortened his deadline for hitting Russia with the most severe sanctions on its oil exports to date. While the market has called the president's bluff thus far, the sheer scale of the threat may force investors to start pricing in this meaningful tail risk, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. * The earnings season is ramping up, and investors are once again focusing on whether companies will beat or miss expectations. However, Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim Klement claims the major driver of share prices can be found in the bond market. * As investors brace for the busiest week of the U.S. earnings season, debate is picking up again about the 'Mag 7' influence over U.S. equity indexes and whether we could be seeing the beginnings of true market broadening. Read the latest from ROI columnist Jamie McGeever. Chart of the day Dollar selling has abated in recent weeks, but the weekend U.S.-EU trade deal has catapulted it higher across the board as investors start to remove a tariff risk premium dogging the currency all year. The dollar's DXY index surged more than 1% on Monday, its biggest one day gain in more than two months, and has added to that on Tuesday. After just two days, it's on course for its best week of the year. Today's events to watch * U.S. June goods trade balance (8:30ED AM T), June retail/wholesale inventories (8:30 AM EDT) May house prices (9:00 AM EDT), July consumer confidence (10:00 AM EDT) June JOLTS job openings data (3:00 PM EDT) Dallas Federal Reserve July service sector survey (3:30 PM EDT) * International Monetary Fund releases its update World Economic Outlook (9:00 AM EDT) * U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet for a second day in Stockholm * Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee starts its two-day meeting on interest rates, decision Wednesday * U.S. corporate earnings: UPS, Merck, Boeing, PayPal, Starbucks, Visa, Corning, UnitedHealth, Procter & Gamble, Stanley Black & Decker, Sysco, Incyte, Norfolk Southern, Booking, Ecolab, Carrier, PPG, Regency Centers, Caesars, Royal Caribbean, American Tower, CBRE, Teradyne, Mondelez, BXP, Seagate, DTE * U.S. Treasury sells $44 billion of 7-year notes, $30 billion of 2-year floating rate notes Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Morning Bid: US-EU deal boosts markets and the dollar
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets European stocks and Wall Street futures climbed again after the weekend deal between the United States and European Union averted a trade war between two allies that account for almost a third of global trade. The euphoria also lifted the dollar across the board. The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the EU on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate. The agreement mirrored key parts of the accord the U.S. reached with Japan last week, but, like that deal, this one leaves many open questions, including regarding tariffs on spirits and wine. * Euro zone stocks jumped almost 1% to within a whisker of the record high set earlier this month, with S&P 500 futures up modestly ahead of the bell. The dollar's rise was less intuitive, but analysts said reduced trade tensions may allow markets to now refocus on yield differentials. * U.S. trade deals with the EU, Japan and UK are seen as a significant win for Washington, as they secure higher tariffs on imports into the U.S. without retaliation and include commitments for additional investment to boot. Not all in Europe were happy with the tariff hike. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou called it a "sombre day" for Europe, which he said had resigned itself to submission. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators now resume talks in Stockholm, but the August 1 deadline on U.S. tariffs has been defused considerably as a major market issue. * Traders on Monday will also be keeping tabs on an OPEC+ ministerial meeting, but no change is expected in the production stance. It's also a heavy day of Treasury debt sales, with $139 billion of two- and five-year notes under the hammer. Treasury yields were softer going into the sales. * The week ahead is jam packed with events: policy meetings at the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada; updates on the U.S. labor market, GDP and inflation; four megacap earnings reports and a quarterly refunding announcement. Today's column examines why the Fed may struggle to come up with justification for a rate hike in September. Today's Market Minute * The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate - and averting a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for almost a third of global trade. * Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials will resume talks in Stockholm on Monday to try to tackle longstanding economic disputes at the centre of a trade war between the world's top two economies, aiming to extend a truce by three months and keeping sharply higher tariffs at bay. * The Bank of England is expected to soon slow the pace at which it shrinks its 558 billion-pound ($754 billion) holdings of government bonds, and economists hope next week will shed some light on its longer-term goals for the stockpile. * New European Union sanctions targeting Russia's oil industry will reshuffle global diesel flows for the second time since 2022, adding pressure to an already red-hot market, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. * ROI columnist Clyde Russell claims the framework agreement reached between the U.S. and China has strong echoes of Donald Trump's failed trade deal with China from his first term as U.S. president. Chart of the day The U.S.-EU trade deal sees 15% levies on European exports to the United States. While the tariff applies to most goods, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, there are exceptions. The U.S. will keep in place a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, for example, and there's no guarantee pharma will face higher tariffs in future either. What's more, discussions are still continuing regarding any tariff exemptions for EU wines and spirits, European Commission officials said, referring to the highly contentious area. Today's events to watch * Dallas Federal Reserve July manufacturing survey (10:30 AM EDT) * U.S. corporate earnings: Universal Health, Nucor, Principal Financial, Cincinnati Financial, Veralto, Cadence, Brown & Brown, Waste Management, Welltower, Hartford Insurance, Revvity * U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators resume talks in Stockholm * President Donald Trump meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland * OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting * U.S. Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes, $70 billion of 5-year notes Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (by Mike Dolan; editing by Ros Russell)
