Morning Bid: US-EU deal boosts markets and the dollar

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2 days ago

By Mike Dolan
LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
European stocks and Wall Street futures climbed again after the weekend deal between the United States and European Union averted a trade war between two allies that account for almost a third of global trade. The euphoria also lifted the dollar across the board.
The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the EU on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate. The agreement mirrored key parts of the accord the U.S. reached with Japan last week, but, like that deal, this one leaves many open questions, including regarding tariffs on spirits and wine.
* Euro zone stocks jumped almost 1% to within a whisker of the record high set earlier this month, with S&P 500 futures up modestly ahead of the bell. The dollar's rise was less intuitive, but analysts said reduced trade tensions may allow markets to now refocus on yield differentials.
* U.S. trade deals with the EU, Japan and UK are seen as a significant win for Washington, as they secure higher tariffs on imports into the U.S. without retaliation and include commitments for additional investment to boot. Not all in Europe were happy with the tariff hike. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou called it a "sombre day" for Europe, which he said had resigned itself to submission. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators now resume talks in Stockholm, but the August 1 deadline on U.S. tariffs has been defused considerably as a major market issue.
* Traders on Monday will also be keeping tabs on an OPEC+ ministerial meeting, but no change is expected in the production stance. It's also a heavy day of Treasury debt sales, with $139 billion of two- and five-year notes under the hammer. Treasury yields were softer going into the sales.
* The week ahead is jam packed with events: policy meetings at the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada; updates on the U.S. labor market, GDP and inflation; four megacap earnings reports and a quarterly refunding announcement.
Today's column examines why the Fed may struggle to come up with justification for a rate hike in September.
Today's Market Minute
* The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate - and averting a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for almost a third of global trade.
* Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials will resume talks in Stockholm on Monday to try to tackle longstanding economic disputes at the centre of a trade war between the world's top two economies, aiming to extend a truce by three months and keeping sharply higher tariffs at bay.
* The Bank of England is expected to soon slow the pace at which it shrinks its 558 billion-pound ($754 billion) holdings of government bonds, and economists hope next week will shed some light on its longer-term goals for the stockpile.
* New European Union sanctions targeting Russia's oil industry will reshuffle global diesel flows for the second time since 2022, adding pressure to an already red-hot market, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.
* ROI columnist Clyde Russell claims the framework agreement reached between the U.S. and China has strong echoes of Donald Trump's failed trade deal with China from his first term as U.S. president.
Chart of the day
The U.S.-EU trade deal sees 15% levies on European exports to the United States. While the tariff applies to most goods, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, there are exceptions. The U.S. will keep in place a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, for example, and there's no guarantee pharma will face higher tariffs in future either. What's more, discussions are still continuing regarding any tariff exemptions for EU wines and spirits, European Commission officials said, referring to the highly contentious area.
Today's events to watch
* Dallas Federal Reserve July manufacturing survey (10:30 AM EDT)
* U.S. corporate earnings: Universal Health, Nucor, Principal Financial, Cincinnati Financial, Veralto, Cadence, Brown & Brown, Waste Management, Welltower, Hartford Insurance, Revvity
* U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators resume talks in Stockholm
* President Donald Trump meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland
* OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting
* U.S. Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes, $70 billion of 5-year notes
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(by Mike Dolan; editing by Ros Russell)