16-07-2025
Starting your back-to-school shopping before more tariffs hit? You may not save by going early
Mila Olumogba has fine-tuned her back-to-school shopping routine over the years. The mother of three from Gatineau scours off-season bargains to spread out costs, buys clothes one size up to fit in August and always checks her cupboards first.
This year, she's also been trying to shop more locally in light of Canada's trade war with the United States and President Donald Trump's tariff threats, including sweeping levies as high as 35 per cent on Canadian imports starting in August.
But avoiding American mega-chains has often been challenging in the back-to-school category.
'As much as I would like to boycott Amazon and Walmart, it's not always possible with three kids,' she said. 'Where we can, we shop locally. But sometimes we need to go to the big-box stores and shop their deals.'
Many Canadian parents expect to spend more on back-to-school shopping this year. And most of them are starting early by jumping on the flurry of summer sales from big-box brands, with some looking to cut costs in the face of economic headwinds and potential price hikes from the Canada-U.S. trade war.
But some financial advisers and retail strategists say parents and students are unlikely to save much by snapping up sharpened pencils, calculators and the like early, and may even end up spending more than if they'd waited.
A June report from Retail Council of Canada and Caddle, a rewards app, found that about 67 per cent of parents surveyed had either started or planned to start back-to-school shopping in late spring or early summer.
Surveys took place in May on Caddle's mobile platform and online panel across a representative randomized sample of 1,211 Canadian shoppers with children attending kindergarten to Grade 12 in the coming school year.
According to the report, the average spend per child was $600 to $750.
Concerns about possible price hikes or limited availability could be influencing shopping behaviour, according to the retail council's vice-president of member services and marketing, Santo Ligotti.
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'Consumers may also be inclined to start earlier this year given the uncertainty around tariffs,' he said in an e-mail. 'Particularly following Trump's remarks about a potential 35-per-cent increase.'
This year, shoppers have also been inundated with promotions in the second week of July. The so-called 'Black Friday in summer' sales included Inc.'s Prime Day promotion from July 8 to 11, alongside deals from competitors that are playing catch-up.
The shopping event brought in US$24.1-billion in online spending across American retailers, a 30.3-per-cent spike year-over-year, Adobe Analytics said on Saturday.
The apparel category was expected to boast the biggest discounts, at 24 per cent, but back-to-school merchandise represented some of the biggest growth in sales, according to Adobe.
Online sales of backpacks and lunchboxes were set to grow 225 per cent during this promotional period compared to the daily average in June, Adobe said – the largest projected increase of any product category, despite not having the biggest discounts.
Canadian parents are actively seeking deals, with mass merchandisers such as Walmart Canada remaining the go-to starting point, according to the survey from retail council and Caddle.
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The report found that 91 per cent of shoppers feel prices have increased and more than half said school supplies are significantly more expensive than in previous years.
Even so, parents are unlikely to save much, if at all, by starting early.
For starters, most retailers purchased inventory months ahead of back-to-school season and long before Mr. Trump's most recent round of tariff threats.
So, any new tariffs likely won't bump up back-to-school prices significantly from what they are now, according to Lisa Hutcheson, a retail consultant and managing partner at J.C. Williams Group.
'The inventory that they have now is the inventory they have for their future orders,' she said.
The same goes for items such as clothing and electronics. Much of the stock for back-to-school was 'front-end loaded' ahead of expected tariffs, which has helped stabilize prices, said Sylvain Golsse, national global trade leader at EY Canada.
If Mr. Trump's tariffs do go through, consumers may see some price increases as retailers try to offset future losses. 'If an iPhone was manufactured in China and imported into the U.S. first ... it's going to be more expensive for the Canadian importer to bring that same device into Canada,' he said, even if Canada hasn't imposed new tariffs.
'But I think they can't change [prices] drastically,' said Ms. Hutcheson. Instead, retailers may offset costs in other ways, such as by embracing automation to cut costs, she said. 'I don't think we're going to just see a 35-per-cent increase in pricing.'
That isn't to say that prices won't be pushed up eventually if Mr. Trump unleashes his latest tariff threats. But those are more likely to show up near the Christmas holiday season, said Mr. Golsse.
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Still, retailers may be capitalizing on the uncertainty around tariffs by nudging people to turn 'wants into needs,' said Adam Chapman, a certified financial planner based in London, Ont.
At the end of the day, 'you're guessing at what you need; probably buying a lot more than what's required.'
Buying earlier often means duplicating or wasting money on items that aren't ultimately necessary, said Mr. Chapman.
'The best kind of controlled, condensed shopping for school supplies is actually after school starts,' he said. At that point, teachers provide checklists and students know what's required.
The retail council's survey also found that the vast majority of parents surveyed – more than 90 per cent – plan to shop in-store. But there may be back-to-school savings opportunities online, said Mr. Golsse, especially if your kids roam store aisles with you.
'You're going to end up leaving with a heck of a lot more,' he said. 'They're getting excited … and you already think they need it, so then that excitement coming off them just entices you to spend because it's for education.'
