Latest news with #MinskAgreements
The Hill
11-08-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
China and Russia have the leverage to disrupt Trump's dealmaking
President Trump is planning to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin potentially this week in the Alaska. The topic is the war in Ukraine and Trump's intention to end the killing there. Obviously, despite what Trump promised during the election, 24 hours was not enough time to reach an agreement. Trump sending his ubiquitous envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow last week suggests this was the president's initiative and not Putin's. Perhaps Trump did not want his 10-day demand to Putin to end the war to expire without some measure of success. In any event, one can only speculate why Putin accepted the meeting — and it does not appear Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be part of that meeting, although Trump would be obliged to see him separately. Why Putin agreed has several possible explanations. He may need to end the sanctions for economic reasons. His offensive may have gained his objectives in Ukraine. Or Putin may conclude that as the 2014-2015 Minsk Agreements failed to provide security for Ukraine, a cease-fire will allow him to use what Lenin called 'other means' to gain control of his neighbor. So far, the administration has not claimed that Trump's submarine deployments to 'appropriate places' was a deciding factor in convincing or coercing Putin to meet. U.S. submarines have been operating in proximity to the former Soviet Union and now Russia since the Cold War began. On a few occasions, operations were inside Soviet territorial waters. Trump did threaten North Korea's Kim Jong Un with 'fire and fury,' claiming his button — meaning the nuclear trigger — was bigger than Kim's. After this clash of rhetoric, both met twice. But nothing occurred other than Trump's claim that he 'fell in love' with the ' Little Rocket Man.' Did U.S. submarines have the same effect on Putin? At Trump's disposal as commander in chief is the U.S. Navy's fleet of 68 nuclear submarines. Fourteen are Ohio class armed with 7,500 mile range Trident ballistic missiles. Four are able to carry up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles with a 1,000 mile range. Fifty are attack boats carrying torpedoes and cruise missiles. How two submarines could get Putin's attention is not clear. Russia has complained mightily when Tomahawk-armed U.S. warships sailed within 1,000 miles of Putin's physical location. But there is no obvious advantage in using Ohio class submarines as a signal, given the range of its Trident missiles. Missile and attack submarines could deploy in proximity to major Russian naval bases in the Kola peninsula in the Arctic or Petropavlovsk in the Pacific. But presumably, U.S. submarines are already there. The Baltic is too confined and shallow for nuclear submarine operations. The Mediterranean Sea is more suitable but gives no strategic advantage. The Black Sea is closed to all submarines not belonging to the littoral states; and the transit of surface warships is restricted by the Montreux Convention. So did the submarines make a difference? Who knows? Sanctions have not seemed to affect Putin's behavior. Russia has deftly shifted selling about half its oil exports to China and India. Trump has imposed sanctions on India but not China yet. Putin knows that Trump-imposed secondary sanctions on China is a double-edged sword. China has not been impressed by Trump's ' liberation day ' threat of tariffs and secondary sanctions. Why? The reason is due to which nation is more dependent on the other — China on the U.S. or the U.S. on China. China has withheld certain rare earth elements from the U.S. on which U.S. companies depend. China has additional assets to leverage. And why would China not seek to poach U.S. exports to other markets? India has less clout than China. A tariff war will drive India closer to China and away from the Quad, which comprises the U.S., Japan, Australia and India. None of this will be in American interests. And there is a worse case. Suppose China and India do cut off energy imports from Russia. Where will they turn? The U.S. cannot make up the difference yet. Increases in demand could drive the price of oil through the proverbial roof, causing a recession or worse. Does Trump understand these realities? Or does he not care? So what leverage does Trump have over Putin, and Putin over Trump? Putin knows Trump wants to end the war. Is Putin seeking a 2025 version of the infamous 1938 Munich Agreement in which United Kingdom Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain sought 'peace for our time' or a real solution? Knowing Putin, you have the answer. Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is UPI's Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council, the chairman of two private companies and the principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. He and former United Kingdom Defense Chief David Richards are the authors of a forthcoming book on preventing strategic catastrophe.
Russia Today
30-06-2025
- Politics
- Russia Today
Lugansk People's Republic liberated: How it happened
Russian forces have taken complete control of the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR), after over a decade of hostilities in the contested region. The announcement was made Monday by the local governor, Leonid Pasechnik, who confirmed that all remaining settlements occupied by Ukrainian troops had been and declaration of independence The Lugansk unrest began in 2014 amid political upheaval in Kiev. Russian-speaking residents launched protests against the coup which saw President Viktor Yanukovich ousted, demanding official status for their language and autonomy from the central government. Tensions escalated quickly, leading to the occupation of public buildings and the emergence of armed militias. In April that year, local leaders declared the formation of the LPR, shortly after the emergence of its sister republic of Donetsk. A public vote held in May showed strong support for separation from Ukraine. Kiev dismissed the vote and began military operations to regain control, prompting an extended armed conflict that consumed Donbass. Stalled peace efforts and economic realignmentEfforts to end the violence led to negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France, which produced the Minsk Agreements in 2014 and 2015. These proposed political autonomy and new elections but failed to achieve lasting peace. Ukraine refused direct talks with LPR representatives and the ceasefires repeatedly region, meanwhile, increasingly adopted Russian-style governance. By 2015, it had shifted to the ruble and redirected its economy toward Russia, especially after Ukraine imposed a trade blockade in 2017. Local authorities assumed control of key industries to manage shortages and sustain services. Russia intervenes After years of refusal by Ukraine to implement the Minsk Agreements and continued shelling of civilian areas of the breakaway region by Kiev's forces, Russia launched its special military operation on February 24, 2022. LPR and Russian troops advanced swiftly, securing towns including Shchastye, Stanitsa Luganskaya, and intensified in cities such as Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. After months of urban warfare, Russian forces liberated Severodonetsk by late June. Lisichansk fell soon after, completing control over the LPR's main administrative centers. Referendum In late September 2022, the LPR conducted a vote on joining Russia. Officials reported overwhelming support. Shortly afterward, Russia declared the region a federal subject. However, clashes continued along the frontier for another two years. Hard fight for consolidation of control Despite the victories, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in October 2022. Though it recaptured several border villages, Ukrainian forces were unable to break through to key strongholds. The front lines eventually stabilized. From 2023 to mid-2025, Russian forces focused on clearing remaining Ukrainian positions. Strategic areas such as Novogrigorovka and Kremenskiye Lesa were gradually secured. In March 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that 99% of the LPR territory had been liberated. On June 30, 2025, the local governor confirmed that all territories of the LPR had come under full Russian control.
Russia Today
28-06-2025
- Politics
- Russia Today
Zelensky is ‘politically dead' – Russia's top UN diplomat
Ukraine's 'expired' leader Vladimir Zelensky is 'politically dead' and refuses to step down to avoid accountability for his actions, Russian UN envoy Vassily Nebenzia has told RT's Rick Sanchez. In an interview on Sanchez Effect aired on Friday, Nebenzia accused Zelensky of betraying the promises that brought him to power and dragging Ukraine into a wider conflict. He referenced Zelensky's campaign pledge to end the fighting in Donbass, which the Kiev regime and its Western backers derailed by violating the 2014-15 Minsk agreements. 'Zelensky came to power on the promise to end the war in Donbass... He promised one thing, but he turned 180 degrees… Politically, Zelensky is already dead,' Nebenzia stated. Nebenzia said Zelensky is holding on to power to avoid the consequences of prolonging the conflict with Russia and misusing Western funds provided as aid. 'The end of his presidency may entail something for him that he is trying to avoid at all costs: Reporting on the money stolen and the loss of the people whom he failed miserably,' Nebenzia stated. 'So he has all the reasons... to cling to power and not to hold elections.' Ukrainians are our brothers, no doubt about it. But the clique that came to rule them – it is a regime, it is not a government. 'They stole billions of dollars out of the aid they were receiving. That's an open secret,' he said, adding that Kiev has already been asked to report on the aid but has failed to do so. 'I think that when finally it comes to it, the revelations will be very dire.' Zelensky has remained in office since his term expired in May, suspending elections due to martial law. He insists that he has the right to remain in office, though the constitution stipulates that presidential duties should pass to the parliament speaker. Russia has said it is open to talks with Ukraine but questions the legality of any deals made with the current government in Kiev. President Vladimir Putin recently said he would meet with Zelensky but called into question his authority to sign a treaty, as 'the signature must come from legitimate authorities, otherwise, whoever comes after [Zelensky] will toss it to the dumpster.'
The Independent
19-04-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Vladimir Putin declares truce in Ukraine - but how many times has he broken ceasefire agreements?
Vladimir Putin has declared a 'Easter truce' in Ukraine, ordering his forces to end hostilities at 6pm on Saturday until the end of Sunday. The Russian Defence Ministry said it had given instructions on the ceasefire to all group commanders in the area of the "special military operation", which is the Kremlin 's term for the war. However, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian air defence units had hours earlier repelled an attack by Russian drones saying this showed Moscow's true attitude to Easter and the lives of people. The Russian president has an extensive history of breaking peace agreements. Last month, Mr Putin broke an energy infrastructure ceasefire hours after telling Mr Trump his forces would stop attacks. Earlier this year, Mr Zelensky handed a document to Mr Trump's Ukraine envoy detailing what he said were the 25 ceasefires Russia had violated since the start of its aggression in 2014. . Below, we look at some of those agreements and how exactly these previous ceasefires broke down. The Minsk Agreements After pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in 2014 following the Euromaidan revolution, Mr Putin sent plainclothes Russian soldiers into the southern Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, and then into the eastern Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. Fighting quickly broke out as Russia denied involvement. Moscow claimed it was Ukrainian separatist forces. Nonetheless, by September of that year, Ukraine, Russia and the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR) convened for the first of what would be many peace talks. They were brokered by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). On 5 September, the first of two agreements was signed in the Belarusian capital of Minsk. Its provisions included prisoner exchanges, the delivery of humanitarian aid and the withdrawal of heavy weapons. But a day later, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council announced that Russian troops had fired at Ukrainian positions at least 10 times. The ceasefire failed to materialise into anything substantive. By the turn of the year, fighting had intensified. Pro-Russian insurgents attacked Ukrainian positions at Debaltseve, a transport hub near the administrative line between Donetsk and Luhansk, eventually forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal by mid-February. At that point, a second agreement was underway in Minsk, this time overseen by German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande. The agreement came into effect on 15 February but lasted only a few minutes, as Russian units fired on a Ukrainian checkpoint near Zolote in Luhansk Oblast, according to Ukraine's military. Easter and Christmas ceasefires For the next four years, Russia and Ukraine agreed to several ceasefires a year, often timed with Christmas, Easter or the harvest, around June/July. Not a single one held for very long. On several occasions, the OSCE helped broker agreements, but skirmishes broke out quickly. Neither side believed a truce could hold. Soldiers would fire at one another within hours of the supposed start of a ceasefire. The OSCE said both sides would also deny them access to inspect military equipment, though they said the Russian-backed rebels were typically guilty of the more serious violations of ceasefire agreements. Back in 2022, just a few months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a ceasefire was proposed to take place between 21 and 25 April. UN Secretary-General António Guterres put forward the idea, aiming to "open a series of humanitarian corridors" and allow for the "safe exit of all civilians wishing to leave areas of confrontation". But the plan never came to fruition. While Ukraine expressed support for the proposal, Russia rejected it, saying it did not want to give Kyiv's forces a chance to rest. Russia's deputy permanent representative to the UN, Mr Dmitry Polyansky, called the proposal 'insincere' and claimed it would give Ukrainian troops more time to regroup and receive weapons. Zelensky's 2019 and 2020 attempts It was just two months after the comedian-turned-politician Mr Zelensky assumed his role as the president of Ukraine that he found himself opposite Mr Putin for the latest round of peace talks. Ms Merkel and the new French president Emmanuel Macron oversaw the talks. In a written statement, the countries agreed to the release and exchange of all 'conflict-related detainees' by the end of 2019. They also pledged to disengage military forces in three additional regions of Ukraine by the end of March 2020, without specifying which regions would be affected. But it was a deal that was doomed to fail. 'We saw differences today,' Mr Macron admitted at the time. 'We didn't find the miracle solution, but we have advanced on it.' The following July, another agreement was struck, one that did reduce the level of fighting but never quite stopped it completely. 2025 energy infrastructure ceasefire Mr Putin broke his promise to Mr Trump to stop attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure just hours after his agreement with the US president. In a readout of a call between the two leaders in March, the Kremlin said Mr Trump had requested that Russia refrain from striking energy infrastructure. It added that Mr Putin had responded 'positively' to this request and had 'immediately given the Russian military the corresponding command'. But Russia fired several ballistic missiles and nearly 150 drones across Ukraine a few hours later, cutting off electricity in the eastern city of Slovyansk, damaging two medical facilities in the northeast Sumy region, and wounding people in the capital of Kyiv. Russian state media then claimed that Ukrainian drones had hit an oil facility in the Krasnodar Krai region, sparking a small fire at an oil depot located near the village of Kavkazskaya. Russian site Shot posted a video of a fire in what seemed like an industrial area, but it was unclear if this was of the actual attack. Ukrainian governmental and local authorities posted extensive footage of Russia's attacks.
Russia Today
28-03-2025
- Politics
- Russia Today
Russia will ‘finish off' Ukrainian forces
President Vladimir Putin has declared that Russian forces are gaining momentum across the entire line of contact and could soon 'finish off' Kiev's military, while commenting on attempts by its European backers to derail a diplomatic resolution of the conflict. The Russian president made the remarks on Thursday during a meeting with the crew of the Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine, equipped with Zircon hypersonic missiles. Putin reiterated that Moscow has always sought to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means but was met with deception and obstruction from the West – first with the failed Minsk Agreements and then during the 2022 Istanbul peace talks. 'Their European handlers… convinced the Ukrainian leadership that they had to continue armed resistance, essentially to the last Ukrainian, with the goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia,' he said. READ MORE: Key points of Putin's idea to place Ukraine under UN control Putin accused Western leaders – specifically former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson – of underestimating Russia's resolve, and warned that the country's military capabilities should not be taken lightly. 'He must have forgotten that there are people like you – and weapons like your submarine,' Putin told the naval crew. 'Apparently, he forgot, or maybe they simply do not understand what the Russian people are made of.' The Russian president said the conflict is reaching a turning point and expressed confidence in the outcome, noting that 'across the entire line of combat engagement, our troops hold the strategic initiative.' Not long ago I said, 'We'll squeeze them.' Now there's reason to believe we'll finish them off. Then, I think a moment of realization must come to the Ukrainian people themselves. Despite his hardline tone, Putin reiterated that Russia remains open to peace negotiations – but only if the core causes of the conflict are addressed. 'We are in favor of resolving these issues by peaceful means… But the root causes must be eliminated. We must ensure Russia's security for the long historical perspective,' he said. READ MORE: Moscow backs ceasefire despite Kiev's breaches – Kremlin Russia has repeatedly stated that it is open to peace talks, but insists that a true settlement of the conflict requires a permanent and legally-binding solution. Moscow opposes any NATO presence on Ukrainian soil and demands that Kiev demilitarize, denazify, adhere to a position of neutrality, and recognize the territorial 'realities on the ground.' On March 18, the Russian military was ordered to refrain from attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure under a deal agreed upon by President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump. However, the Russian Ministry of Defense has since reported multiple Ukrainian violations, which it described as attempts to undermine Trump's mediation efforts.
