Latest news with #Moody's
The Sun
11 hours ago
- Business
- The Sun
The Unstable State of the World Debt: Octa Broker Issues a Warning
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 30 May 2025 - Traders and investors alike are unnerved by the recent turbulence in the bond markets. After Moody's—a major rating agency—downgraded U.S. government debt on 16 May, and Japanese long-term bond yields soared to multi-decade highs, some market participants started to fear that the world may be on the verge of a major debt crisis. Meanwhile, the yield on 20-year UK government bonds neared 5.5%, a level not seen in 27 years, as investors grew more worried about the extent of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' borrowing plans. Octa Brokers looks at the potential implications of these developments for global markets. Ticking Fiscal Bomb The U.S. mounting national debt has long been the subject of intense debate and concern among economists, policymakers, and the public. Apocalyptic predictions of a U.S. default and dollar collapse are nothing new. They first appeared decades ago and have been surfacing here and there regularly, attracting plenty of followers. However, these predictions have never materialised, while the doomsayers have been dismissed as amateur conspiracy theorists at best and irresponsible alarmists at worst. Still, while we are not inclined to take a grand stance on this issue, we cannot afford to ignore the latest market developments regarding the U.S. debt. Often called a 'ticking fiscal bomb', it has recently started raising fears about the nation's long-term economic stability and potential impact on global markets. 'On current trends, U.S. national debt is projected to reach $37 trillion in two weeks and may reach $40 trillion by the end of the year. This trend cannot continue forever. The Fed's [Federal Reserve] printing press may have no limit, but market patience does have its limit', says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker. Indeed, the market's perception of risk regarding U.S. government debt has clearly risen. This is evident in the noticeable increase in the cost of insuring exposure to U.S. government debt over the past month. The spreads on U.S. credit default swaps (CDS)—a key measure of default risk—have reached their widest levels since the 2023 debt ceiling crisis in recent weeks (see chart below). Market stress intensified even more following Moody's downgrade and the passage of the U.S. President Donald Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' in the House of Representatives. The bill features $3.8 trillion in tax cuts and is widely expected to worsen the federal budget deficit outlook. As a result, investors started to demand higher returns for holding long-term U.S. government bonds, pushing the yields on 20-year notes above the important 5% level on 21 May. 5-Year Credit Default Swaps Kar Yong Ang comments: 'Policy uncertainty is all over the place. Tariffs, tax bill, debt ceiling. No wonder investors charge a premium for holding the debt of a country, which is not in a 'triple-A club' anymore. Investors want higher yield in order to provide long-term lending in the current uncertain climate'. Indeed, the U.S. government actually hit its legal borrowing limit back in January and has been using special procedures to avoid exceeding it and potentially defaulting. However, these measures are expected to run out around late August or early September, at which point the government might be unable to meet all its financial commitments. Yields of government bonds with the longest maturities have been rising sharply not just in the United States but also in Japan and the United Kingdom (UK) (see chart below). On 20 May, Japan's 20-year government bond (JGB) auction had its worst results since 2012. The demand was weak, with the bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.50, while the lowest accepted price was just ¥98.15, some 2% below the expected price. Yields on 20-Year Government Bonds
Yahoo
13 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Maryland's credit downgrade can be blamed on actions in Washington, not Annapolis
Maryland maintained a AAA bond rating from Fitch and Standard & Poor's, but was downgraded to Aa1 by Moody's. (Maryland Matters file photo) In his coverage of the downgrade of Maryland's credit rating by Moody's from the coveted AAA to AA1, Bryan Sears pointed to Moody's acknowledgement of Maryland's 'wealthy and diverse economy,' solid financial planning and proactive management by officials, including slowing expenditures and raising new funds. But the report also noted that Maryland was particularly vulnerable to 'shifting Federal policies and employment' in comparison to other states with triple-A ratings: Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Virginia. In plain-speak, Maryland's administration was well equipped to handle any organic financial issues arising from budgetary deficits, and/or ambitiously funded programs. But our reliance on federal jobs meant that no one could foresee or plan for such eventualities. Maryland Matters welcomes guest commentary submissions at editor@ We suggest a 750-word limit and reserve the right to edit or reject submissions. We do not accept columns that are endorsements of candidates, and no longer accept submissions from elected officials or political candidates. Opinion pieces must be signed by at least one individual using their real name. We do not accept columns signed by an organization. Commentary writers must include a short bio and a photo for their bylines. Views of writers are their own. Among all the states with a triple-A rating, Maryland's economy is the only one which is dominated by the government sector. Being a small state and adjacent to the nation's capital, Maryland's largest source of income is income tax. Almost one in 10 Maryland workers is a federal employee. The only variable NOT in control of the state administration is the employment of federal workers. It isn't hard to see the connection. Republican delegates and senators who tout Moody's warnings about Maryland's rating prior to this current federal administration taking charge are forgetting that the programs with high price tags, like the Blueprint for Maryland's Future, were hit because of the COVID-19 economy. We barely had time to come up to the surface to take a breath of air before being submerged again by this second Trump administration! The GOP needs to take a hard look at themselves, and their blind obeisance to the walking body of malfeasance they regard as their president. Here is the bottom line: Moody's downgraded Maryland's credit rating because, despite the Moore administration's best efforts, they could not fix the damage done by DOGE and their dismantling of federal government. Maryland, D.C. and Virginia have the maximum number of federal employees – both Maryland and D.C. had their ratings downgraded. Virginia is a much larger state and has other economic avenues to offset the loss of federal jobs, even though it, too, has taken a substantial hit to its economy. Blame, if it is to be assigned, lies with the Trump administration and its hatchet approach to federal infrastructure. Believe me, the damage goes far beyond a credit rating — the United States will be feeling the effects of this sabotage for decades to come. Fitch has since released its ratings on Maryland, and Standard & Poor's followed on Wednesday. Maryland continued to maintain a triple-A ratings with both firms. So let's all take a deep breath, and return to resisting the illegal and unconstitutional actions of this federal administration.
The Sun
13 hours ago
- Business
- The Sun
The World Debt Situation Has Become More Unstable, Octa Broker warns
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 30 May 2025 - Traders and investors alike are unnerved by the recent turbulence in the bond markets. After Moody's—a major rating agency—downgraded U.S. government debt on 16 May, and Japanese long-term bond yields soared to multi-decade highs, some market participants started to fear that the world may be on the verge of a major debt crisis. Meanwhile, the yield on 20-year UK government bonds neared 5.5%, a level not seen in 27 years, as investors grew more worried about the extent of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' borrowing plans. Octa Brokers looks at the potential implications of these developments for global markets. Ticking Fiscal Bomb The U.S. mounting national debt has long been the subject of intense debate and concern among economists, policymakers, and the public. Apocalyptic predictions of a U.S. default and dollar collapse are nothing new. They first appeared decades ago and have been surfacing here and there regularly, attracting plenty of followers. However, these predictions have never materialised, while the doomsayers have been dismissed as amateur conspiracy theorists at best and irresponsible alarmists at worst. Still, while we are not inclined to take a grand stance on this issue, we cannot afford to ignore the latest market developments regarding the U.S. debt. Often called a 'ticking fiscal bomb', it has recently started raising fears about the nation's long-term economic stability and potential impact on global markets. 'On current trends, U.S. national debt is projected to reach $37 trillion in two weeks and may reach $40 trillion by the end of the year. This trend cannot continue forever. The Fed's [Federal Reserve] printing press may have no limit, but market patience does have its limit', says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker. Indeed, the market's perception of risk regarding U.S. government debt has clearly risen. This is evident in the noticeable increase in the cost of insuring exposure to U.S. government debt over the past month. The spreads on U.S. credit default swaps (CDS)—a key measure of default risk—have reached their widest levels since the 2023 debt ceiling crisis in recent weeks (see chart below). Market stress intensified even more following Moody's downgrade and the passage of the U.S. President Donald Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' in the House of Representatives. The bill features $3.8 trillion in tax cuts and is widely expected to worsen the federal budget deficit outlook. As a result, investors started to demand higher returns for holding long-term U.S. government bonds, pushing the yields on 20-year notes above the important 5% level on 21 May. 5-Year Credit Default Swaps Kar Yong Ang comments: ' Policy uncertainty is all over the place. Tariffs, tax bill, debt ceiling. No wonder investors charge a premium for holding the debt of a country, which is not in a 'triple-A club' anymore. Investors want higher yield in order to provide long-term lending in the current uncertain climate'. Indeed, the U.S. government actually hit its legal borrowing limit back in January and has been using special procedures to avoid exceeding it and potentially defaulting. However, these measures are expected to run out around late August or early September, at which point the government might be unable to meet all its financial commitments. Yields of government bonds with the longest maturities have been rising sharply not just in the United States but also in Japan and the United Kingdom (UK) (see chart below). On 20 May, Japan's 20-year government bond (JGB) auction had its worst results since 2012. The demand was weak, with the bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.50, while the lowest accepted price was just ¥98.15, some 2% below the expected price. Yields on 20-Year Government Bonds Source: LSEG 'Japan's auction signals poor liquidity and weak interest in new long-term securities as investors are concerned about excessive profligacy. It seems to me that the BoJ wants to stop buying bonds at the worst possible moment. Who is going to replace it? ', rhetorically asks Kar Yong Ang, referring to BoJ plans to taper its massive bond purchase programme. Indeed, although yields on long-term JGBs have been rising since the COVID pandemic, the trend accelerated after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) moved toward monetary policy normalisation amid rising wage growth and inflation. Policy normalisation implied higher short-term rates and fewer bond purchases. Thus far, BoJ has ended its yield curve control (YCC), raised its benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to 0.5% and even embarked on quantitative tightening (QT). These factors contributed to the consistent increase in Japanese government bond yields. Today, however, the situation is complicated by additional fiscal stimulus, which could result in more government borrowing just as the BoJ prepares to slowly exit the debt markets. The Cabinet already approved a massive ¥21.9 trillion ($142 billion) economic stimulus package back in November 2024. Most recently, it approved an emergency plan to allocate ¥388 billion ($2.7 billion) from reserve funds to assist businesses and households affected by U.S. tariffs. 'Investors are sending a very clear message: if we are the only ones left to finance these spending plans, then we demand higher returns', concludes Kar Yong Ang. The recent movements in the U.S., Japanese, and UK government bond markets paint a concerning picture of increasing investor unease regarding sovereign debt. From the rising cost of insuring U.S. debt and the poor reception of Japan's long-term bond auction to the near 27-year high in the UK gilt yields, a common thread of heightened risk perception is evident. As Kar Yong Ang of Octa Broker points out, factors like policy uncertainty, fiscal profligacy, and the prospect of central banks reducing their bond purchases are prompting investors to demand greater compensation for lending to governments. 'The problem is not just that governments have an enormous mountain of debt. The real problem is that the market is intricately interconnected. A small trouble in one place can morph into a major crisis elsewhere. What if higher JGB yields lure Japanese capital back home? If they decide to increase their JGB holdings, they may have to sell the U.S. Treasuries and that could be catastrophic given that Japan is a major holder of U.S. debt', says Kar Yong Ang. Investors should watch the upcoming BoJ meeting scheduled for 17 June. The BoJ will issue its regular policy rate decision and will likely announce its balance sheet reduction plan. According to MacroMicro, markets currently expect a gradual pace—around 6–7% reduction over two years. However, if the BoJ opts to speed up the process, it could put pressure on global markets ___ Disclaimer: This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to engage in any investment activity. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs. Any action you take based on this content is at your sole discretion and risk. Octa and its affiliates accept no liability for any losses or consequences resulting from reliance on this material. Trading involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Use your expertise wisely and evaluate all associated risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Availability of products and services may vary by jurisdiction. Please ensure compliance with your local laws before accessing them. Hashtag: #Octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
Bloomberg
15 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Nigeria Upgraded to B3 by Moody's on Fiscal, Forex Gains
Nigeria 's sovereign credit was raised by Moody's Ratings, citing the removal of oil subsidies, a more flexible exchange rate and improvements in its fiscal status. The credit assessor upgraded Africa's largest oil producer's foreign currency debt to B3, six notches below investment grade, from Caa1. The outlook was changed to stable.
Bloomberg
20 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Moody's Cuts Brazil Outlook, Delivering Fiscal Warning to Lula
By , Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo, and Martha Viotti Beck Updated on Save Moody's Ratings lowered Brazil 's credit outlook to stable from positive, delivering a reproof to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government at a time when it is under increasing pressure to shore up the country's fiscal situation. The ratings firm, which upgraded the country in October, reaffirmed its Ba1 rating, one level below investment grade. But it cited expectations of larger fiscal deficits, slower progress in structural reforms and budget pressure from high interest rates to alter its overall outlook for Latin America's largest economy on Friday.
