Latest news with #MultilevelRegressionandPost-stratification
Deccan Herald
26-06-2025
- Business
- Deccan Herald
Farage's reform would come top in UK election, YouGov finds
By Alex Farage's populist Reform UK would be the biggest party in parliament if the country held a general election today, according to a nationwide projection, underlining the political danger to Prime Minister Keir would win 271 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, with Starmer's governing Labour party second on 178, polling firm YouGov said on Thursday. That would leave a hung parliament in which no party could govern alone. .FTA with India a smart approach to trade, says UK's new Industrial Tories, who already posted their worst ever general election result last year when they won 121 seats, would plumb new depths on just 46, while the Liberal Democrats would leapfrog them, winning 81 seats. Following Labour's landslide victory last year, another general election is not expected until poll highlights major changes in the UK's electoral landscape, as the country appears poised to move beyond the Tory-Labour duopoly that's dominated politics for a century. Amid disaffection over the state of the country's public services, Farage's right-wing outfit — which won just five seats last year — has been riding high in the polls. The Reform leader has warned he's coming for Labour after his party made huge gains in a set of local elections earlier this has emulated America's Department of Government Efficiency — DOGE — and pledged to slash waste in UK local councils. Former chairman Zia Yusuf told Bloomberg's In The City podcast this week that Britain is being held back by Labour's economic plans to increase control over Google in search .FragmentationThe YouGov survey also suggested Labour cabinet ministers including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, Defense Secretary John Healey and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson would lose their seats if a general election was held now. Former Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, of the Conservatives, would lose his seat to Reform, YouGov and the Tories combined would win just 41% of votes, according to YouGov. That's half the level of their joint share as recently as 2017.'That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade,' YouGov poll also sees the Scottish National Party, the Greens and Plaid Cymru advance. The pollster used so-called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification modeling, which aims to give a more detailed electoral prediction than standard polling — its first such survey since last year's July 4 vote.
The National
26-06-2025
- Politics
- The National
Reform set to pick up first Scottish seats in YouGov poll
The survey by YouGov – its first MRP poll since last year's General Election – found that Reform UK would become the largest party in Westminster with 271 MPs. This includes three MPs in Scotland – marking the first time a poll has shown Reform UK winning seats north of the Border. The poll, based on a survey of more than 11,500 British adults between May 29 and June 18, found that Labour would lose 233 seats and would drop to just 178 MPs, making it the second biggest party in Westminster. READ MORE: UK nations unite against Labour's 'inadequate' devolution approach Meanwhile, the LibDems would have 81 MPs and the Tories would come in fourth at just 46 MPs – losing 75 seats. The SNP look set to gain seats, with the poll predicting they will go from a total of nine to 38 MPs, making them the biggest party in Scotland. However, Reform UK would also make gains in Scotland, with the poll showing Nigel Farage's party picking up seats for the first time. As reported in The Times, Reform UK would pick up three seats in the south of Scotland: Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock (Reform 28.3%, Labour 22.2%, SNP 20.8%) Dumfries & Galloway (Reform 27.8%, SNP 22.2%, Tory 20.2%) Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale (Reform 26.8%, Tory 24.2%, SNP 18.1%) YouGov's seat projection also reveals that Reform UK would finish in the top three of every single constituency in Scotland except from one – Edinburgh North and Leith. The total seat projection for the whole of Britain is: Reform UK: 271 seats (+266) Labour: 178 seats (-233) LibDems: 81 seats (+9) Conservatives: 46 seats (-75) SNP: 38 seats (+29) Greens: 7 seats (+3) Plaid: 7 seats (+3) The MRP (which stands for Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) poll is not a forecast, but an estimate of what could happen. It is based on thousands of people and links voters and characteristics to help with its projection. The poll comes as the Labour Government is facing calls for a "regime change" amid internal rebellion over planned cuts to welfare. More than 120 Labour MPs have signed an amendment opposing the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill, which seeks to cut disability benefits by around £5 billion per year. The amendment has also been backed by the SNP, the Greens and Independent MPs. Acccording to The Times, new Labour MPs have told colleagues that voting down the legislation would help get rid of 'overexcitable boys' from Starmer's team of advisers.
Yahoo
27-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
UK political opinion poll tracker
Labour have fallen a long way since their landslide victory last summer. Testament to just how serious the challenge from Reform is, they held the voting intention lead for the whole of February. Both major parties had not been pipped in more than 100 years. By law, the next general election must be held by August 21, 2029 at the latest. The road ahead is long, and everything is liable to change. Will Labour find its stride? Will the Conservatives bounce back from the worst defeat in their history? Will Reform's momentum last five years, and if so, could Nigel Farage win enough seats to become the next prime minister? To answer these questions, the Telegraph has compiled polls from a range of pollsters approved by the British Polling Council. These are transparent, reliable and respected bodies like YouGov, Opinium and Redfield and Wilton. The result of each survey published since July 2024 has been weighed upon how well that pollster performed last time around, with scores taken from the UK Election Data Vault, and the size of the sample. The trendline displayed is the outcome of a local regression. In the days following the last election, YouGov sampled more than 35,000 voters to see how support varied across different bases. On election day, right-leaning women proved more reluctant than men to side with the insurgent Reform over the Tories. The most recent polls show female voters have been increasingly won over. The dividing lines of age are also being blurred: support for Reform has grown across all demographic groups, but the surge is strongest among the young. Support for the Conservatives remains robust with pensioners, but Farage's grip is tightening in this age group as well. Labour, meanwhile, is slumping with all generations. We know exactly how many ballots were cast for national and regional parties in all corners of the UK. Labour's share has declined across the country. The latest polls show Reform in the lead in the Midlands and the South outside of London. Plaid Cymru and the SNP have also both enjoyed some success in capitalising on the ruling party's declining fortunes in Wales and Scotland. The Prime Minister's honeymoon was very short-lived. Last July, he was a neutral figure in the eyes of the public – as many people reported viewing him favourably as unfavourably – making him one of the most popular party leaders at the time. But this soon changed. By October, he was more negatively perceived than the notoriously divisive Nigel Farage. The first-past-the-post system has long led to an imbalance between national vote share and the number of seats in the Commons. 2024 was the most skewed election in history when it comes to comparing vote share and seats won. Predicting the winner of 650 constituency-level races is no easy feat. Pollsters have in recent years taken to conducting what are known as MRPs – standing for 'Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification'. These combine a mega-poll, typically with a sample size of more than 10,000, with a range of characteristic data about the local population, from gender and age to education level and voting history. Every poll comes with a measure of uncertainty. Although all pollsters strive to interrogate a representative sample, and weight the results to reflect the makeup of the wider country, a margin of error is unavoidable. In practice, the true position of a particular poll is likely to fall within 2 points of the quoted figure. Each pollster also has a bespoke approach to establishing headline voting intention. The precise wording of questions can vary, as does the way 'don't know' responses are handled. Studies have shown that an aggregated 'poll of polls' helps mitigate the potential biases emerging from individual pollsters.
