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Arab News
4 days ago
- Business
- Arab News
Bosnia-Herzegovina reforms a strategic necessity
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Agreement, a landmark accord that ended the Bosnian War of 1992-1995 and brought a fragile peace to Bosnia-Herzegovina. On this significant occasion, I had the privilege of hosting a panel of experts in Dayton, Ohio — where the agreement was originally signed — that was titled 'Next Steps After Dayton? Getting to Constitutional Reform in BiH,' referring to Bosnia-Herzegovina. The panel, convened by the New Lines Institute, featured distinguished voices including former US Ambassador to Bosnia Michael Murphy; Ensar Eminovic, minister counselor at the Bosnia-Herzegovina Embassy in Washington; Dr. Miomir Zuzul, senior international policy adviser at Arnold & Porter; and Dr. Jasmin Mujanovic, author of the institute's recent report, 'Dayton Plus: A Policymaker's Guide to Constitutional Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina.' Together, we reflected on Dayton's legacy and the urgent need for reform to secure the country's future. The Dayton Agreement was a monumental achievement, halting a devastating conflict that claimed countless lives and displaced millions. It established a complex constitutional framework under Annex IV, dividing Bosnia-Herzegovina into two entities — the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska — alongside the self-governing Brcko District. However, while Dayton brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress. The agreement's rigid ethnic power-sharing mechanisms, designed to balance the interests of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, have fostered dysfunction, discrimination and stagnation. Today, Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitutional regime is a labyrinth of inefficiency. The tripartite presidency, entity vetoes and sectarian electoral rules exclude approximately 400,000 citizens — particularly those identifying as 'Others' (e.g., Jews, Roma or those who reject ethnic labels) — from meaningful political participation. The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly struck down provisions of the constitution as discriminatory, a legal obligation the country is bound to address under its own laws, but progress remains stalled. This de facto constitutional crisis undermines Bosnia-Herzegovina's aspirations for EU and NATO membership, a goal that requires rational governance and accountability — outcomes the current system cannot deliver. The demographic reality in Bosnia-Herzegovina underscores the urgent need for reform. Since the 2013 census, which recorded a population of 3.5 million, estimates suggest that number has plummeted to under 2 million due to mass emigration, particularly among the youth. In Republika Srpska, claims of a 1.4 million population may mask a reality closer to 800,000. This exodus reflects a lack of hope in a system that denies citizens a stake in their future, perpetuating corruption and ethnic division over shared prosperity. Mujanovic outlined a clear case for reform. The current constitution promotes irrational governance, incentivizes sectarian maximalism and allows neighboring states to meddle in Bosnia-Herzegovina's affairs, heightening the risk of renewed conflict. Conversely, constitutional reform could foster accountable governance, ensure equal rights for all citizens and pave a credible path for Euro-Atlantic integration by 2040. The benefits are clear: a shift from zero-sum politics to a system that values individual rights over collective ethnic identities, reduces foreign interference and empowers Bosnia-Herzegovina to stand as a sovereign, democratic state. While the Dayton Agreement brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress Dr. Azeem Ibrahim However, the path to reform is fraught with challenges. Political elites, entrenched in the status quo, resist change, fearing a loss of power. The Office of the High Representative, with its expansive Bonn Powers, has intervened in the past — most notably during the 2022 Bosnia-Herzegovina election — but such external impositions are not sustainable. True reform must come from within, supported by international partners like the US and the EU, which have historically expected irrational systems to yield rational outcomes. This flawed premise has led to repeated policy failures in Bosnia-Herzegovina, as our report notes, unless accompanied by sustained international pressure. 'Dayton Plus' proposes a model for limited constitutional reform that balances pragmatism with ambition. It suggests a single, non-ethnically designated president with ceremonial powers, elected through a two-round system to encourage moderate outcomes. Executive authority would shift to the Council of Ministers, with a redefined entity veto mechanism to prevent abuse. Unicameral legislatures at all levels, caucus-based vital national interest protections and electoral reforms like ranked-choice voting aim to dismantle the winner-takes-all mentality. These changes would not overhaul Bosnia-Herzegovina's structure entirely but would normalize constitutional reform as a routine democratic process, building momentum for future progress. Today, that reform is not just necessary — it is achievable. The original Dayton Agreement proved that, with political will, even the most intractable conflicts can be resolved. Today, the task of amending Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitution in line with European Court of Human Rights rulings is far less daunting than ending a war in 1995. What is needed now is the same determination, coupled with imagination, to chart a new course for Bosnia-Herzegovina. As we look to the future, the Euro-Atlantic community must recommit to Bosnia-Herzegovina's stability. The Western Balkans remains a geopolitical flashpoint, with Russia and China exploiting governance weaknesses to sow discord. Constitutional reform in Bosnia-Herzegovina is not just a domestic imperative but a strategic necessity for regional security. By supporting it in this endeavor, the US and the EU can help complete the vision of a Europe whole and free — a vision Dayton began but cannot fulfill without change. The 30th anniversary of Dayton is a moment to celebrate peace, but also to act. Bosnia-Herzegovina's citizens deserve a system that reflects their shared hopes, not their divided past. Let us work together to make that vision a reality. *Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim
CBC
11-05-2025
- Politics
- CBC
India-Pakistan ceasefire expected to be fragile in early days: Eurasia security expert
The ceasefire between India and Pakistan — two nuclear-armed powers that looked increasingly willing to engage in an all-out war — appeared to be holding into Sunday. Kamran Bokhari, former senior director of the Eurasian security and prosperity portfolio at the New Lines Institute, says ceasefire violations are 'to be expected' in the early hours or days before it becomes a formal truce 'but we aren't yet there.' Read more:
Yahoo
23-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump's troop drawdown in Syria is a bet that ISIS won't return
The US is withdrawing roughly 1,000 troops from Syria in the coming months. The Trump administration believes the new Syrian government and Kurdish partners can contain ISIS. The US is "well-served" by keeping some forces in Syria to counter ISIS, a retired colonel told BI. The United States will begin withdrawing hundreds of troops from northeast Syria in coming months, a sign that it believes its Kurdish partners and the new Syrian government can keep ISIS extremists from reorganizing. The US troops in Syria have assisted its local partner, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, in the fight against ISIS since 2015. The presence was always relatively small, never exceeding 2,500, and is being reduced to below 1,000. "This consolidation reflects the significant steps we have made toward degrading ISIS' appeal and operational capability regionally and globally," Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in a Friday statement. "This deliberate and conditions-based process will bring the US footprint in Syria down to less than a thousand US forces in the coming months." "The US is likely to keep a small residual force in Syria to conduct targeted raids against ISIS," Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, told Business Insider. "The US is also likely to keep the base in Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan) as a hub to surge forces into Syria, as needed." "These factors would mean that a phased US withdrawal from Syria would be less likely to be chaotic, and more likely to adhere to a typical reduction in force." In October 2019, two years after ISIS lost its self-styled caliphate's de-facto capital to the US-led coalition, President Donald Trump ordered an abrupt withdrawal, triggering a brief but destructive and destabilizing cross-border Turkish operation against the SDF. Trump ultimately postponed that hasty withdrawal and the US maintained a smaller deployment of about 900 personnel. The latest drawdown takes place under significantly different circumstances. "The 2019 withdrawal was so chaotic because it was a snap decision that the US administration wasn't adequately prepared for, and which senior officials in the administration were outraged by," Aron Lund, a fellow with Century International and a senior analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, told BI. "You don't have that situation today," Lund said, adding that, unlike the previous Trump administration, there are no officials who would likely resign in protest as Defense Secretary Jim Mattis did. In December, after the overthrow of long-time Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the US disclosed that it had 2,000 troops in Syria. It clarified that those additional 1,100 were "temporary rotational forces" and the remaining 900 "core" assets. Myles B. Caggins III, a senior nonresident fellow at the New Lines Institute, retired US Army colonel, and former spokesman for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, believes Washington would be "well-served" in continuing its Syria deployment. "During the first Trump administration, the US-led global Coalition defeated ISIS by supporting the Kurdish-led SDF," Caggins told BI. "It is important for President Trump to preserve that victory and support the SDF while they continue raids on ISIS remnants and hold 10,000 ISIS detainees." "The 2,000 US troops in Syria continue to blast and capture ISIS and Hurras al-Din leaders, as well as preventing Iranian-backed militants from having a land bridge to Lebanon and ultimately Israel," Caggins said; Hurras al-Din is an al-Qaeda-affiliated group in Syria. These continued counter-terrorism efforts coincide with improving relations between Turkey and the SDF. A ceasefire recently ended months of skirmishes between the SDF and Turkey's Syrian militia allies. "The situation now in eastern Syria is more fortuitous than it has been before for this type of US reduction of force," Heras said. The SDF also signed a landmark deal with Damascus in March that will eventually see the SDF integrated into Syria's national armed forces. Until that deal, the US still has a crucial role to play in supporting its Kurdish-led partner. "The new transitional Syrian government is not able to fund or staff the ISIS detention centers and Damascus tacitly welcomes the presence of US troops because they know that the well-trained, well-equipped SDF is a critical part of the future composition of the Syrian Ministry of Defense," Caggins said. Thousands of ISIS fighters and their families remain in prisons and open-air camps in SDF-held areas. The most notable is the sprawling Al-Hol camp near the Iraqi border in northeast Syria. The camp is an indefinite detention for an estimated 40,000 people, primarily Iraqi and Syrian nationals, many with suspected links or sympathies to ISIS. ISIS prisoners and sleeper cells have attempted to free fellow captives and regroup, most notably in January 2022 through an attempted prison break in Hasaka that took the US-backed Kurdish authorities 10 days to suppress. Efforts to rehabilitate foreign ISIS fighters at al-Hol are ongoing. So far, an estimated half of Iraqi nationals in the camp have been repatriated, with the majority rehabilitated. Shortly before he returned to the White House in January, Trump said that America should have nothing to do with Syria or its conflict. Century International's Lund believes it remains to be seen if "a more extensive pullout" of US troops from Syria and Syria's reabsorption of SDF territories and institutions could be smoothly coordinated with Damascus and Ankara. "If everyone shows a bit of goodwill, you could have a handover of areas and prisons and other things" from the US and SDF to the Syrian government, Lund said. "But if there's not a deal in place when US troops start a final exit, or if there's a deal that doesn't hold up when tested, things could go haywire very quickly." "Even if we end up with just a partial reduction of forces this time, I believe the United States will probably quit Syria in Trump's second mandate," Lund added. "And if so, it will probably be sooner rather than later." Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region. Read the original article on Business Insider
Business Insider
23-04-2025
- Politics
- Business Insider
Trump's troop drawdown in Syria is a bet that ISIS won't return
The United States will begin withdrawing hundreds of troops from northeast Syria in coming months, a sign that it believes its Kurdish partners and the new Syrian government can keep ISIS extremists from reorganizing. The US troops in Syria have assisted its local partner, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, in the fight against ISIS since 2015. The presence was always relatively small, never exceeding 2,500, and is being reduced to below 1,000. "This consolidation reflects the significant steps we have made toward degrading ISIS' appeal and operational capability regionally and globally," Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in a Friday statement. "This deliberate and conditions-based process will bring the US footprint in Syria down to less than a thousand US forces in the coming months." "The US is likely to keep a small residual force in Syria to conduct targeted raids against ISIS," Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, told Business Insider. "The US is also likely to keep the base in Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan) as a hub to surge forces into Syria, as needed." "These factors would mean that a phased US withdrawal from Syria would be less likely to be chaotic, and more likely to adhere to a typical reduction in force." In October 2019, two years after ISIS lost its self-styled caliphate's de-facto capital to the US-led coalition, President Donald Trump ordered an abrupt withdrawal, triggering a brief but destructive and destabilizing cross-border Turkish operation against the SDF. Trump ultimately postponed that hasty withdrawal and the US maintained a smaller deployment of about 900 personnel. The latest drawdown takes place under significantly different circumstances. "The 2019 withdrawal was so chaotic because it was a snap decision that the US administration wasn't adequately prepared for, and which senior officials in the administration were outraged by," Aron Lund, a fellow with Century International and a senior analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, told BI. "You don't have that situation today," Lund said, adding that, unlike the previous Trump administration, there are no officials who would likely resign in protest as Defense Secretary Jim Mattis did. In December, after the overthrow of long-time Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the US disclosed that it had 2,000 troops in Syria. It clarified that those additional 1,100 were "temporary rotational forces" and the remaining 900 "core" assets. Myles B. Caggins III, a senior nonresident fellow at the New Lines Institute, retired US Army colonel, and former spokesman for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, believes Washington would be "well-served" in continuing its Syria deployment. "During the first Trump administration, the US-led global Coalition defeated ISIS by supporting the Kurdish-led SDF," Caggins told BI. "It is important for President Trump to preserve that victory and support the SDF while they continue raids on ISIS remnants and hold 10,000 ISIS detainees." "The 2,000 US troops in Syria continue to blast and capture ISIS and Hurras al-Din leaders, as well as preventing Iranian-backed militants from having a land bridge to Lebanon and ultimately Israel," Caggins said; Hurras al-Din is an al-Qaeda-affiliated group in Syria. These continued counter-terrorism efforts coincide with improving relations between Turkey and the SDF. A ceasefire recently ended months of skirmishes between the SDF and Turkey's Syrian militia allies. "The situation now in eastern Syria is more fortuitous than it has been before for this type of US reduction of force," Heras said. The SDF also signed a landmark deal with Damascus in March that will eventually see the SDF integrated into Syria's national armed forces. Until that deal, the US still has a crucial role to play in supporting its Kurdish-led partner. "The new transitional Syrian government is not able to fund or staff the ISIS detention centers and Damascus tacitly welcomes the presence of US troops because they know that the well-trained, well-equipped SDF is a critical part of the future composition of the Syrian Ministry of Defense," Caggins said. Thousands of ISIS fighters and their families remain in prisons and open-air camps in SDF-held areas. The most notable is the sprawling Al-Hol camp near the Iraqi border in northeast Syria. The camp is an indefinite detention for an estimated 40,000 people, primarily Iraqi and Syrian nationals, many with suspected links or sympathies to ISIS. ISIS prisoners and sleeper cells have attempted to free fellow captives and regroup, most notably in January 2022 through an attempted prison break in Hasaka that took the US-backed Kurdish authorities 10 days to suppress. Efforts to rehabilitate foreign ISIS fighters at al-Hol are ongoing. So far, an estimated half of Iraqi nationals in the camp have been repatriated, with the majority rehabilitated. Shortly before he returned to the White House in January, Trump said that America should have nothing to do with Syria or its conflict. Century International's Lund believes it remains to be seen if "a more extensive pullout" of US troops from Syria and Syria's reabsorption of SDF territories and institutions could be smoothly coordinated with Damascus and Ankara. "If everyone shows a bit of goodwill, you could have a handover of areas and prisons and other things" from the US and SDF to the Syrian government, Lund said. "But if there's not a deal in place when US troops start a final exit, or if there's a deal that doesn't hold up when tested, things could go haywire very quickly." "Even if we end up with just a partial reduction of forces this time, I believe the United States will probably quit Syria in Trump's second mandate," Lund added. "And if so, it will probably be sooner rather than later." Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.
