Latest news with #NikitaSmagin
Al Jazeera
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
As Israel-Iran war escalates, Ukraine fears ‘more losses' to Russia
Kyiv, Ukraine – There is a Persian word millions of Ukrainians fear. Shahed – also spelled as Shaheed or Shahid, originally a Quranic term for 'martyr' or 'witness' – is the name given to the triangular, explosives-laden, Iranian-designed drones that became a harrowing part of daily life and death in wartime Ukraine. These days, they are assembled in the Volga-region Russian city of Yelabuga and undergo constant modifications to make them faster, smarter and deadlier during each air raid that involves hundreds of drones. Their latest Russian versions shot down in Ukraine earlier this month have artificial intelligence modules to better recognise targets, video cameras and two-way radio communication with human operators. 'The word 'Shahed' will forever be cursed in Ukrainian next to 'Moscow' and 'Putin',' said Denys Kovalenko, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Kovalenko's face and arms were cut by glass shards after a Shahed exploded above his northern Kyiv neighbourhood in 2023. Shaheds are the most visible and audible part of the military alliance between Moscow and Tehran that is being tested this month amid attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran. Other aspects of the alliance that affect the Russia-Ukraine war include Iranian-made ammunition, helmets, and flak jackets, according to Nikita Smagin, an author and expert on Russia-Iran relations. However, the year 2022, when Putin started the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, was the 'peak of Iran's significance for Russia as a military partner', Smagin told Al Jazeera. The Kremlin has invested tens of billions of dollars into its military-industrial complex and shadow systems to supply chips, machine tools and dual-purpose goods for its weapons that bypass Western sanctions. The flow of military technologies usually went the other way as Moscow supplied advanced air defence systems, missiles and warplanes to Tehran, keeping Israel worried. In 2009, then-Israeli President Shimon Peres told this reporter in Moscow that his visit was aimed at convincing the Kremlin to 'reconsider' the sale of S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Tehran. Russia's advanced Su-35 jets were supposed to be delivered to Tehran earlier this year, but were not seen in the Iranian sky. Washington's arms supplies to Israel have already affected Kyiv's ability to withstand Russia's air raids and slow advance on the ground. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on June 9 that the White House decided to divert 20,000 anti-drone missiles earmarked for Kyiv. 'Without the help of the United States, we'll have more losses,' Zelenskyy said in televised remarks. More Ukraine-bound military aid may now be diverted to Israel, and the Kremlin 'counts on this scenario', analyst Smagin said. This possible diversion already alarms Ukraine's top brass. Arms that were 'made for Ukraine will go to the Middle, so there are no illusions about it', Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine's general staff of armed forces, told Al Jazeera. There should be no illusions about Russia's ability to protect Iran, he said. Even though Moscow and Tehran hail their strategic partnership, it does not envisage a mutual defence clause. Therefore, the Kremlin will hardly be able to commit to military action similar to the Russian air raids against Syria's then-opposition to support then-President Bashar al-Assad's faltering regime, he said. 'They won't change anything significantly,' Romanenko said. 'But they will have enough for arms supplies.' Any arms supplies may, however, enrage US President Donald Trump, who has so far showed unusual leniency towards Moscow's actions in Ukraine as his administration botched peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv. Moscow's condemnation of Israeli and US strikes on Iran evoked a sense of hypocrisy, some observers said, as Russia's description of the attacks sounded familiar. 'No matter what arguments are used to justify an irresponsible decision to subject a sovereign state's territory to missile and bomb strikes, [the decision] rudely violates international law, the United Nations charter and the resolutions of the UN Security Council,' Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Sunday. 'Moscow and Iran compete for China's market' There is an area where Russia and Iran compete for multibillion-dollar oil trade profits that keep their sanctions-hobbled economies afloat. 'Moscow and Iran compete for China's market, and China will respectively have to buy more Russian oil at a higher price,' Smagin said. A third of global oil exports go through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel between Iran and Oman that is fully controlled by Tehran's 'mosquito fleet' of tiny warships. Crude prices will skyrocket worldwide if Tehran opts to close the strait to tankers. It would also strike a financial bonanza for Russia that could further finance the war in Ukraine. And as Moscow's war in Ukraine consumes most of Russia's resources, its reputation in the Middle East will suffer. 'Reputation-wise, Russia suffers huge losses as it risks not to be seen as a great power in the Middle East,' Smagin said. If Tehran rejects Trump's 'ultimate ultimatum' to work out a peace deal, Washington's attention to Iran and Israel may spell disaster for Kyiv. 'Undoubtedly, the US's refocusing on the Middle East and Iran is a geopolitical catastrophe for us; there's nothing to argue about,' Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kuschch told Al Jazeera.
The Guardian
18-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Iranian regime collapse would be serious blow for Russia
When a group of Russian and Iranian foreign policy officials arranged to meet in Moscow on Wednesday for a conference titled 'Russian-Iranian cooperation in a changing world', they probably did not anticipate just how timely that phrase would turn out to be. Seated around a table at the President hotel near the Kremlin, officials from both sides were forced to confront a stark new reality: Iran's regime – a key ally of Moscow – is facing its most serious threat in decades. As Israel and Donald Trump demand Tehran's 'unconditional surrender', Moscow is growing increasingly anxious about the fate of Iran, while tacitly acknowledging its limited ability to influence the unfolding events. Nikita Smagin, an independent expert on Russia-Iran ties, said: 'It has long been clear that Russia wouldn't defend Iran militarily, because it is simply not prepared to risk a confrontation with Israel and the United States for Iran's sake.' Analysts say Moscow's cautious response reflects a cold political calculus: prioritising its war in Ukraine while simultaneously trying to dissuade the US from direct involvement in a conflict that could lead to regime change in Tehran. The Kremlin is unlikely to arm Iran, let alone get involved in the fighting, said a Russian source with ties to the foreign ministry. 'Moscow clearly doesn't want conflict with Trump and is also doing everything it can to urge the US to return to diplomacy. But Russia's priority remains avoiding any moves that could undermine its warming ties with the new US administration or prompt a shift in Trump's stance on Ukraine,' the source said. Still, the Kremlin stands to lose from a prolonged US-backed Israeli military campaign that devastates Iran's economic and military infrastructure and threatens the survival of the regime in Tehran. 'If the current Iranian regime collapses, it would be both a strategic and reputational blow for Russia', the source with ties to the Russian foreign ministry said. 'A bigger loss than the fall of Damascus,' the source added, referring to Moscow's diminished influence over Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, a longtime Kremlin ally whose eventual defeat marked the end of a costly decade-long Russian intervention. On the surface, Russia's muted response and restrained condemnations stand in contrast to the deepening ties it has forged with Iran since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine – a war that placed Moscow alongside Tehran among the regimes most heavily hit by sanctions. In the early months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Iran proved to be an important partner to the Kremlin, supplying Moscow with thousands of combat drones used to strike Ukrainian cities. Tehran also later sent instructors to Russia to help set up a drone production facility, based on Iranian designs, deep in the Ural mountains. Vladimir Putin in turn praised the deepening ties between the two countries. In January he and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, signed a wide-ranging 'comprehensive strategic partnership treaty' aimed at strengthening military cooperation and intelligence sharing. Still, the two nations' relationship has always been complex, observers say. When signing the military agreement, both countries insisted on omitting a mutual defence clause, meaning Moscow now is under no legal obligation to provide military assistance to Iran. Russia has also been slow to deliver a range of weapons Tehran has requested. 'Despite repeated requests from the Iranian side for various types of weapons – air defence systems and fighter jets – none of this has been transferred to Iran by Russia to date,' Smagin said. Partly due to its entanglement in Ukraine and its growing ties with other regional players, including Saudi Arabia, Moscow has shown little urgency on propping up Iran, even as Tehran's position has weakened after blows against its key proxy, the Lebanese movement Hezbollah. The Kremlin, meanwhile, has largely decoupled its reliance on Iranian military support, having already acquired the expertise to mass-produce drones domestically. Some in Moscow have even sought to put a positive spin on Israel's assault on Iran. For one, oil prices have surged to their highest level in four months – and are expected to rise further – offering Moscow a much-needed economic boost at a time when falling global energy prices had threatened to squeeze its wartime budget. The conflict has also drawn the full attention of Trump, who in recent days has barely mentioned Ukraine. He cut short a trip to the G7 summit, skipping a previously scheduled meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow defence thinktank, wrote on Telegram: 'It is likely that Ukraine will suffer the greatest military and political damage in this situation, apart from Iran itself, of course. A new war in the Middle East will not only distract the world's attention from the [conflict in Ukraine] but will also, apparently, contribute to the final reorientation of the US towards providing military assistance to Israel.' But while these may offer short-term gains, the long-term picture is far more precarious for Russia, analysts and insiders say. Russia risks losing a key strategic partner – along with years of political and economic capital – in a blow that could seriously undermine its broader geopolitical ambitions. Over the past two years, Moscow has become Iran's leading foreign investor, committing billions to gas, energy and infrastructure projects – all of which could be jeopardised if the regime in Tehran falls. And unlike some of Moscow's other allies, such as Belarus, Russia shares little in the way of historical or cultural affinity with Iran. Their partnership has been forged less through tradition than through a shared hostility towards the west – and the experience of navigating life under sanctions. 'If this regime falls, I think it will be much harder for Russia to retain its assets and influence in the country,' said Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russian foreign policy Notte said the worst-case scenario for Moscow would be a Middle East dominated by US-aligned powers. 'That would be a heavy blow to Russia.'
New York Times
17-06-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Despite Close Ties With Iran, Russia Stands Aside as Israel Attacks
Iran aided the Kremlin with badly needed drones in the first year of its Ukraine invasion, helped Moscow build out a critical factory to make drones at home and inked a new strategic partnership treaty this year with President Vladimir V. Putin, heralding closer ties, including in defense. But five months after that treaty was signed, the government in Iran is facing a grave threat to its rule from attacks by Israel. And Russia, beyond phone calls and condemnatory statements, is nowhere to be found. Iranian nuclear facilities and energy installations have been damaged, and many of the country's top military leaders killed, in a broad Israeli onslaught that began Friday and has since expanded, with no sign that Moscow will come to Tehran's aid. 'Russia, when it comes to Iran, must weigh the possibility of a clash with Israel and the United States, so saving Iran is obviously not worth it,' said Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russia-Iran relations. 'For Russia, this is just a fact.' The situation reflects a dispassionate political calculus by Moscow, which is prioritizing its own war against Ukraine, as well as its need to maintain warm relations with other partners in the Middle East, which have helped Moscow survive Western economic sanctions, analysts say. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
