Latest news with #OPEC+)
Barnama
26-05-2025
- Business
- Barnama
Rubber Market Ends Mixed Amid Lower Oil Prices, Stronger Ringgit
By Nur Athirah Mohd Shaharuddin KUALA LUMPUR, May 23 (Bernama) -- The Malaysian rubber market closed mixed today, weighed down by declining crude oil prices and a firmer ringgit against the US dollar, a dealer said. She told Bernama that market sentiment was also influenced by movements in regional rubber futures markets. As of 5.10 pm, Brent crude oil prices had declined by 0.76 per cent to US$64.04 per barrel. At the time of writing, the local currency strengthened to 4.2285/4.2350 against the greenback, compared to Thursday's close of 4.2705/2765. 'Oil prices dropped for a fourth consecutive session on Friday and were set for their first weekly decline in three weeks, weighed down by renewed supply pressure from another possible output hike by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) in July. 'Thailand's meteorological agency also warned farmers of possible crop damage, adding that heavy rains and accumulation may cause flash floods from May 23–27, 2025,' said the dealer. At 3 pm, the Malaysian Rubber Board reported that the price of Standard Malaysian Rubber (SMR 20) decreased by 4.50 sen to 740.50 sen per kilogramme (kg), while latex in bulk rose five sen to 627.0 sen per kg. -- BERNAMA
Euronews
23-05-2025
- Business
- Euronews
Oil prices falls as OPEC+ considers output hike before US-Iran talks
Crude oil prices fell for a third consecutive trading day on Thursday ahead of the US-Iran nuclear talks. Traders are growing concerned about the possible return of oil supply from Iran, which holds around one-third of the world's oil reserves. Adding to the pressure, a Bloomberg report stated that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is considering a third consecutive production hike in July, compounding fears of an oversupplied market. Oil prices continued to decline during Friday's Asian session. As of 4:40 am CEST, Brent futures were down 0.59% to $64.06 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 0.6% to $60.83 per barrel—both touching their lowest levels in over a week. Crude prices have experienced notable volatility in recent weeks as market participants weigh rising geopolitical tensions against mounting supply from major oil-producing nations. Broader macroeconomic factors—such as easing US-China trade tensions and renewed selling in US Treasuries—have also been influencing oil market movements. Earlier in the week, prices briefly spiked following a CNN report that Israel was preparing to launch strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, citing intelligence from US sources. However, the rally proved short-lived, with analysts suggesting the warning may have been a strategic move by the US to exert pressure on Iran ahead of the nuclear negotiations. The geopolitical boost was quickly overshadowed on Wednesday by data showing a surge in US crude inventories. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil stockpiles rose to 443.2 million barrels in the week ending 16 May—the highest level since July 2024. The report also indicated that net US crude imports had increased for a third consecutive week, while domestic demand remained weaker than expected. News about OPEC+'s potential acceleration in production hike sent the oil price down further on Thursday. The oil production cartel is reportedly considering hiking crude output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July. The decision is yet to be finalised on 1 June when the group holds the next meeting. The group, which accounts for around 40% of global oil supply, has jointly reduced production by approximately 2.2 million bpd in 2023. The quicker-than-expected phased rollback began with a 135,000 bpd increase in April, tripling to 411,000 bpd in May and June. The acceleration is seen as a punitive measure against members which failed to comply with agreed production quotas, with Kazakhstan and Iraq identified as recent overproducers. Crude prices have consistently fallen following OPEC+ announcements of larger-than-expected production increases in both April and May. However, the potential July decision may already be priced in by markets—unless the group surprises traders with an even more aggressive supply boost. The demand outlook remains fragile amid ongoing concerns over slowing global growth, particularly driven by the US tariffs. Crude prices had previously dropped to a four-year low on 9 April and again on 5 May. The oil market rebounded following the US and China's trade talks earlier this month, when the world's two largest economies reached an agreement to pause high tariffs on each other for 90 days. While near-term pressure remains supply-driven, there is cautious optimism that a sustained recovery in market sentiment, driven by further progress in US tariff negotiations, could support a rebound in oil demand. 'While the immediate pressure comes from the supply side, I believe that in the longer term, further progress on US tariff negotiations with key partners could revive demand and offer more meaningful support for oil,' Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Australia, said. The EU is a 'beacon of stability' when it comes to climate policy on the world stage, said MEP Lídia Pereira on Thursday. Speaking at the Brussels' Economic Forum, the member of the European People's Party (EPP) said that the bloc must not resort to 'dangerous' solutions when tackling the climate crisis. 'If we want to find solutions, we have to find solutions with the moderates,' she said. Pereira was responding to an argument for degrowth, proposed at the forum by Timothée Parrique, an economist and researcher at HEC Lausanne. 'This [degrowth] is not a political statement… this is a scientific reality that we have to grapple with,' Parrique said. 'There is no point being first when you're going in the wrong direction…economic growth has lost all correlation with quality of life.' He continued: 'I can tell you with confidence wealth is not trickling down and pollution is not trickling out.' The theory of degrowth, which has been around since the 1970s, warns against continual economic growth and instead advocates for economic shrinking. Proponents argue that the world doesn't have enough resources to make endless growth a realistic goal, meaning we need to scale back our consumption. Although supported by some eminent academics, critics argue that degrowth would massively destabilise the interconnected global economy, resulting in unemployment and deepening inequality. They also argue that it's a tough political sell. Even so, 'the costs of action are much lower than the cost of inaction,' stressed Parrique on Thursday, noting that growth-focused policies will have a 'huge drawback' in the long term. He suggested that public figures should do more to promote public awareness around this. Lídia Pereira argued that the green transition can go hand in hand with the EU's push to become more competitive. She pointed to subsidies in China and the US, notably former President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and said that Europe must do more to foster 'strategic autonomy in clean technologies'. This is currently held back by a lack of progress on a fully-integrated capital market in the EU, she said. As a result, companies can't get their hands on the capital they need to compete on a global scale. Country-specific laws are still a hindrance to cross-border funding, forcing companies to be more reliant on banks, rather than private investors, for loans. The EU is aiming to be climate neutral by 2050 and member states have specific strategies on how they plan to achieve this. Pereira suggested that Europe could act as a pioneer for other economies when it comes to fulfilling climate commitments, which are becoming ever-more urgent. This comes as, across the Atlantic, the US administration is pulling economic resources from initiatives designed to support the green transition. Donald Trump in January signed an order to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement for the second time. The president is also pushing for a renewed focus on fossil fuels, as opposed to renewable technologies, and is rolling back elements of the IRA.
The Hindu
20-05-2025
- Business
- The Hindu
The ongoing oil price tensions
Just when you had your surfeit of headlines screaming of blood and gore, come the drumbeats of a new conflict. However, in this new one, the belligerents do not swap bullets but barrels. Yet, this incipient conflict is shaping to be a 'mother of all battles' perhaps with a more universal impact than the destruction being wrecked in various corners of the world. This prognosis may surprise observers who not only missed the weeks of its run-up skirmishes but also the bugle of war, when on May 3, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) decided to go ahead with a collective output increase of 4,11,000 barrels per day (bpd) from next month (June). This was the third month in a row that the oil cartel decided to raise crude production, cumulatively undoing the 9,60,000 bpd or nearly half of the 2.2 million bpd 'voluntary' output cuts eight of its members undertook in 2023, to increase global oil prices in an oversupplied market. There are hints that the full 2.2 million bpd cut would be unwound by October 2025. Though the announced production rise was less than half a per cent of global daily production, the oil market was so jittery that the Brent crude price plummeted by almost 2% to $60.23/barrel, the lowest since the pandemic. It has since recovered to $65/barrel with support from the U.S.-China stopgap trade deal and reports of stalemate in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. Saudi's strategy The oil market is still gutted and crude price is nowhere near the triple dollar mark that OPEC+ aimed for. Why, then, has this 23-member producer clique decided to reverse its tactic from reducing supplies to raising production? To find the reasons, we need to deep dive into the oil market of the post-COVID era. Despite the expectation of a quick turnaround, global post-COVID economic recovery was mostly K-shaped leading to an anaemic growth in oil demand. Meanwhile, oil producers were desperate to ramp up their outputs to make up for lost revenue. It also did not help that several new producers, from the Shale oilers to non-OPEC+ countries, such as Brazil and Guyana, also wanted a piece of the shrunken demand. To square the circle, OPEC+ decided to take a collective production cut of five million bpd, nearly 10% of its total pre-pandemic output. When even this move did not shore up the oil price, a further 'voluntary' cut of 2.2 million bpd was taken by eight members. This rope trick also failed to raise oil prices which continued to slide downwards. While these processes were ongoing, Saudi Arabia, OPEC+'s largest producer, which took nearly three million bpd or 40% of the total production cuts, got increasingly infuriated by endemic OPEC+ overproducers, such as Kazakhstan, Iraq, the UAE and Nigeria. The Kingdom, often called a 'swing producer' for its large spare production capacity, prefers stable and moderately high oil prices to ensure a steady oil revenue. However, it has made exceptions in 1985-86, 1998, 2014-16, and 2020 to pursue a market share chasing strategy to punish perceived overproducers. In the past, this market flooding strategy of Saudi enabled Riyadh to eventually impose production discipline among its peers, allowing prices to return to Riyadh's desired levels. Now, when repeated pleas failed to stop overproducers, and when Saudi Arabia's average production fell below nine million bpd in 2024, its lowest level since 2011, Riyadh decided to repeat the playbook: an oil price war in the guise of accelerated restoration of voluntary production cuts. An oversupplied oil market However, many observers are less sanguine about the outcome of the Saudi campaign this time owing to several unique and different fundamentals. To begin with, this time the Saudis do not have the usual deep pockets needed to prevail. The oil market is more fragmented with large flocks of freelancing producers. High Capex has been sunk in ultra-deep offshore fields and other difficult geographies which need recovering, even at marginal costs, to avoid adverse political and economic consequences. Moreover, the crude exports by major oil producers such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela are currently hobbled by U.S. economic sanctions which may not last long. The global oil demand is approaching a plateau and the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects it to grow only by 0.73% in 2025 despite sharply lower prices. The controversial 'peak demand' theory does not appear as outlandish now as it did only two years ago when the IEA predicted that global oil consumption would peak before 2030. The signs in that direction are ubiquitous — from the global economic slowdown to the growing popularity of non-internal combustion engine vehicles, particularly in China, the largest oil importer, and growing climate change mitigation. These pessimistic projections are likely to be further compounded by the huge disruption unleashed by U.S. President Trump's tariff war. The S&P Global agency lowered its global GDP forecasts to 2.2% for 2025 and 2.4% for 2026 — historically weak levels since the 2008-09 recession except for the pandemic period. The World Trade Organization recently predicted a 0.2% annual decline in world trade in 2025 unless other influences intervene. The aforementioned bearish factors can create an inelastic situation causing oil prices to not return to previous levels even after supply-side impetuses are reversed. All this background begets the question: why has Riyadh picked this moment to unleash the oil war? To some observers, the likely rationale lies in a mix of economic and political factors. To begin with, faced with the inevitable long-term prospects of a buyers' market for the foreseeable future, Saudi Arabia may be trying to frontload and maximise their oil revenue. They may also be aiming at positioning themselves at the lower end of the oil price spectrum in anticipation of sanctions being removed from Iran, Russia and Venezuela, three of the biggest producers as well as the full rollout of Mr. Trump's 'Drill, Baby, Drill' campaign. Last, but not least, the move was probably intended as a curtain raiser for President Trump's high-profile state visit to the Kingdom with Al-Saud wishing to be seen as heeding Mr. Trump's call for lower oil prices to help contain U.S. domestic inflation despite his higher import tariffs hurting consumers. With defence guarantees, a nuclear agreement and over $100 billion in American weapon sales lined up, the Saudis have a lot to gain from the U.S. President's successful visit. The impact on India Although the low-intensity oil war may not hit the headlines the way shooting wars do, it is arguably far more consequential. It is particularly true for India, the world's third-largest crude importer, which shelled out $137 billion in 2024-25 for crude. India's crude demand rose by 3.2% or nearly four times the global growth. A U.S. study last year predicted that in 2025, nearly a quarter of global crude consumption growth would come from India. Even further down the line, India's oil demand is widely expected to be the single largest driver for the commodity till 2040. Consequently, although we may not be a combatant in the oil war, we have high stakes, with a one-dollar decline in oil price yielding an annual saving of roughly $1.5 billion. While the downward drift of crude prices in the short run due to the ongoing 'oil war' may be in our interest, the picture is not entirely linear. Lower oil revenue hurts our economic interests in several ways. It causes a general economic decline of oil exporters which are among our largest economic partners, affecting bilateral trade, project exports, inbound investments and tourism. Lower crude prices also affect the value of our refined petroleum exports, often the largest item in our export basket, and could push down refinery margins. Moreover, the lower unit price of oil and gas reduces our pro rata tax revenues. The Gulf economies sustain over nine million of our expatriates, many of whom may lose their jobs. Their annual remittances, estimated at over $50 billion, may suffer, hurting our balance of payments. Irrespective of the outcome of the ongoing oil war, unless we find a new set of drivers to replace hydrocarbons, the lower synergy may become the 'new normal' across the Arabian Sea. Mahesh Sachdev, retired Indian Ambassador, focusses on the Arab world and oil issues. He is currently president of Eco-Diplomacy and Strategies, New Delhi.
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Top 20 themes shaping the oil and gas industry in 2025
In this report, leading data and analytics company GlobalData identifies the top 20 themes that will impact the oil and gas industry in 2025. For each theme, the company offers a series of predictions, identifies winners, and points you to further reading. GlobalData's research shows that companies that invest in the right themes become success stories; those who miss the big themes ultimately fail. Given that so many themes are disruptive, it is very easy to be blindsided by industry outsiders invading your sector. So, to help its clients gain a competitive advantage, GlobalData has developed its Strategic Intelligence Solution, a single, integrated global research platform that provides an easy-to-use framework for tracking all strategic issues - or themes - impacting all companies across all industries. US tariffs and energy security are expected to remain the focal point of oil and gas trade in 2025. The US government initially imposed hefty import tariffs on most countries in line with its respective trade deficits, which were later normalised at 10% for a period of 90 days. Moreover, due to the US' vast imbalance with China, it considerably raised its tariffs on the latter, leading to renewed trade disputes between the two. Such measures might exert downward pressure on the US and global economy in the near term, potentially affecting the energy demand. As a result, the global economic forecast is clouded by the frequent changes in the US tariffs and the prospect of retaliatory rate increases from affected trading partners, especially China. Elsewhere, the industry has largely recovered from the geopolitical developments since 2022 that had vastly impacted global supply chains. While the global oil demand is anticipated to grow in 2025, fuelled by consistent economic expansion in Asia, the stability of supply hinges on geopolitical risks and the production strategies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) nations. A resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, along with incremental increases in OPEC+ output post-April 2025, could ensure adequate market supply, even in the face of stringent US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Thus, the macroeconomic themes of tariffs, geopolitics, and supply chain are likely to be influential in the global energy dynamics in 2025. The environmental, social, and governance theme is also highlighted in the report as it is likely to be integral to decision-making in 2025, particularly on the environment and social dynamics. Newer industry themes that support the energy transition towards zero-emission technologies such as renewables, low-carbon hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and electric vehicles are prominently highlighted in this report. These are evaluated for their potential impact on oil and gas operations in 2025 and beyond. The report also evaluates traditional oil and gas themes, namely liquefied natural gas, shale, and integrated refineries that continue to enable companies to remain competitive in the energy market. The report also features disruptive tech themes such as AI, blockchain, cloud computing, cybersecurity, Internet of Things, and robotics. Further assessment of the top 20 themes in the oil and gas industry can be found in GlobalData's new report, Top 20 Oil & Gas Themes - 2025. "Top 20 themes shaping the oil and gas industry in 2025" was originally created and published by Offshore Technology, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
International Business Times
01-05-2025
- Business
- International Business Times
Oil Prices Fall Sharply in April, Marking Biggest Monthly Drop Since 2021
The global oil market has faced sharp swings due to geopolitical tensions, economic shifts, and changing energy demand. After the COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions, new challenges like trade disputes and policy changes continue to shape crude oil prices and market dynamics. Oil prices continued their downward trend on Wednesday and posted their biggest monthly decline by the end of April since late 2021. Brent crude futures went down by 49 cents, or 0.8%, to $63.76 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slid 40 cents, or 0.7%, to $60.02 a barrel. Both Brent and WTI have fallen around 15% and 16%, respectively, over the month. The slide is a product of both supply and demand issues in the global oil market. The price of oil fell after increasing signs of renewed trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies. On April 2, US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on all US imports, triggering China's rapid response. The moves have escalated worries that the world economy is slowing down, which could drag down oil demand. The trade tensions have reverberated through economic measures. China's factory activity shrank at the quickest pace in 16 months in April, in a sign that industrial demand was crumbling. US consumer confidence has plummeted to a near 5-year low, highlighting economic pressure. The investors remained skeptical despite some measures taken by the Trump administration to soften the impact of auto tariffs. Oil prices were also driven down by increased supply fears as sources close to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) reported that several members may support another round of production increases in June. Adding to the supply-side concerns, American crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels in the most recent week, the American Petroleum Institute said. Analysts expect official data to report a smaller increase of around 400,000 barrels, though the overall trend of increasing inventories points to weak domestic demand.
