Fuel price pain as missiles fly

IOL News

20-06-2025

While missiles fly thousands of kilometres away, the effects of a deepening conflict between Israel and Iran are beginning to reach South African shores - not through politics or security, but through rising prices at the pump and pressure on already-stretched household budgets.
A surge in global oil prices, triggered by military strikes on strategic energy assets and growing fears of supply disruption, is stoking inflation concerns that could ripple through the economy and stall any hopes of interest rate relief.
The bombardment of Iranian military targets by Isreal erupted over a week ago as airstrikes targeted Iranian military infrastructure, including pivotal oil and gas facilities such as the South Pars gas field and the Shahr Rey oil refinery, provoking retaliatory missile attacks by Iran on major Israeli cities.
This has raised alarm bells among market watchers, particularly given Iran's critical role as the third-largest oil producer within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), contributing around four million barrels of crude oil per day and controlling access to the vital Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial maritime chokepoint through which approximately 18–19 million barrels per day or 20% of global oil shipments pass, making any potential disruption a considerable concern for worldwide oil supply.
Despite Iran maintaining crude exports at 2.2 million barrels per day amid the conflict, rising shipping costs and delays due to the potential blockade of this strategic waterway could influence inflation across the globe.
Nolan Wapenaar, co-chief investment officer at Anchor Capital, on Friday said the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have far-reaching consequences for South Africa's economy.
Wapenaar said this would obviously be a major blockage in the supply of oil to the rest of the globe.
'This could drastically impact the availability of oil and one would expect significantly higher prices. The clear impact in South Africa is higher inflation and quite potentially rising interest rates again,' Wapenaar said.
'The impact of a major supply shock to oil will be more pronounced and detrimental to South Africa. We would expect pressure on the terms of trade from rising oil prices, the South African rand could well weaken, exacerbating inflation pressures beyond just the impact of oil prices and supply.'
According to the OPEC+, the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1.3 million barrels per day.
The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments, have agreed to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day by implementing a production adjustment of 411 000 barrels per day in July 2025 in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals.
Analysts warn that the conflict has the potential to reshape power relations within the Middle East and influence OPECʼs internal dynamics as Iran's role as a major oil producer and its strategic position in the Gulf give it considerable leverage.
Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, said the Strait of Hormuzʼs strategic importance cannot be overstated.
'Any disruption – whether due to military action, electronic interference affecting navigation systems, or blockades – could severely constrain global oil supply. Recent incidents, such as the collision and fire involving two oil tankers near the strait, have heightened these concerns,' Botes said.
'While OPEC members possess some excess production capacity that could theoretically offset Iranian supply losses, the risk of a prolonged or expanded conflict introduces significant uncertainty.
'Analysts warn that oil prices could spike to $100/barrel or even $120/barrel if supply through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. Such a price shock would reverberate through global markets, impacting inflation, consumer costs, and economic growth worldwide.'
South Africa consumes around 530 000 barrels of oil per day, or more than 25 million litres of petroleum products each year, facilitated by imports and its three operational refiners.
Petrol and diesel are the most important petroleum products, accounting for more than 85% of consumption. While the country refines imported crude oil, a portion of its fuel supply also comes from synthetic fuels produced from coal and natural gas.
The increase in the fuel price would come as consumers are already battling with the high cost of living after the finance minister hiked the General Fuel Levy (GFL) by 16 cents per litre for petrol and 15 cents per litre for diesel — the first increase in three years — on the back of inflationary pressures.
The price of Brent crude oil traded around $77 (around R1 390) per barrel on Friday, heading for a third consecutive weekly gain as escalating hostilities in the Middle East continued to fuel fears of regional supply disruptions.
However, Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop allayed fears of any fuel supply shortages but said the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would raise shipping costs, impacting inflation and also increase shipping delays.
'South Africa mainly gets oil from Africa and Saudi Arabia (which is expected to stay out of the conflict) so the supply is not expected to be interrupted,' Bishop said.
'We are less impacted as we get our oil supply from Africa not the middle east and are food secure. We would be impacted on price not supply as all oil is priced off Brent crude.'
Rising oil prices have immediate and far-reaching consequences. Higher crude costs translate into increased transportation and manufacturing expenses, feeding into broader inflationary pressures.
This dynamic can slow economic activity by reducing consumer purchasing power and increasing production costs.
Inflation in South Africa has held steady at 2.8%, paving the way for potential interest rate cuts though several factors may yet cause the Reserve Bank to adopt a more hawkish stance.
Everest Wealth CEO, Thys van Zyl, said rising tensions in the Middle East and discussions about lowering South Africa's inflation target band were two key concerns that could temper expectations of further rate cuts.
'This conflict could quickly filter through to fuel prices and transport inflation – and that will narrow the room for rate cuts,' Van Zyl said.
'Although food inflation rose sharply in May due to the impact of foot-and-mouth disease on beef prices, transport inflation was the only category with negative growth thanks to the past year's decline in fuel prices – which helped keep overall inflation low.'
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