Latest news with #OysterGroup
Yahoo
03-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
How Canada's Conservatives threw away a 27-point lead to lose again
Conservatives in Canada are trading blame for Monday night's election loss, showing that Pierre Poilievre will need to heal divisions within the movement as he fights to stay on as leader. As a clear Liberal win was emerging on election night, Conservative candidates and their supporters had one question: What the heck just happened? The party had lost a remarkable 27-point lead in opinion polls and failed to win an election for the fourth time in a row. And while it gained seats and earned almost 42% of the popular vote - its highest share since the party was founded in 2003 - its leader Poilievre was voted out of the seat he had held for the past 20 years. "Nobody's happy about that," Shakir Chambers, a Conservative strategist and vice-president of Ontario-based consultancy firm the Oyster Group, told the BBC. The party is now trying to work out how it will move forward. At the top of the agenda will be finding a way for the Conservatives to perform their duties as the Official Opposition - the second-place party in Canada's parliament whose job is to hold the sitting government to account - without their leader in the House. Ahead of a caucus meeting next Tuesday to discuss this, Poilievre announced on Friday his plan to run in an Alberta constituency special election to win back a seat. That special election will be triggered by the resignation of Conservative MP-elect Damien Kurek, who said he will voluntarily step down to let Poilievre back in after what he called "a remarkable national campaign". "An unstoppable movement has grown under his leadership, and I know we need Pierre fighting in the House of Commons," Kurek said in a statement. Unlike the US, federal politicians in Canada do not have to live in the city or province they run in. Poilievre grew up in Alberta, however, and will likely win handily as the constituency he is running in is a Conservative stronghold. A big question is whether Poilievre still has the backing of his own party to stay on as leader. Mr Chambers said the answer, so far, is a resounding yes. "Pierre has a lot of support in the caucus," he said. "I don't think there's anybody that wants him removed, or that has super high ambitions that wants to replace him as leader." A number of high-profile Conservatives have already rallied behind him. One of them is Andrew Scheer, a current MP and former leader of the party, who said Poilievre should stay on to "ensure we finish the job next time". Others are casting blame on where they went wrong. Jamil Jivani, who won his own constituency in a suburb of Toronto handily, felt that Ontario leader Doug Ford had betrayed the conservative movement and cost the party the election. The federal and provincial Conservative parties are legally different entities, though they belong to the same ideological tent, and Ford is leader of Ontario's Progressive Conservative Party. He frequently made headlines during the election campaign for his get-tough attitude with Donald Trump and the US president's trade war. "He couldn't stay out of our business," Jivani told a CBC reporter. Jivani, who in a past life attended Yale University with US Vice-President JD Vance, where the two became good friends, accused Ford of distracting from the federal Conservatives' campaign and of "positioning himself as some political genius that we need to be taking cues from". But Mr Chambers, the Conservative strategist, said that Poilievre will also need to confront where the party fell short. Poilievre, who is known for his combative political style, has struggled with being unlikeable among the general Canadian public. He has also failed to shore up the support of popular Conservative leaders in some provinces, like Ontario's Ford, who did not campaign for Poilievre despite his recent landslide victory in a provincial election earlier this year. Ford did, however, post a photo of him and Liberal leader Mark Carney having a coffee. "Last time I checked, Pierre Poilievre never came out in our election," Ford told reporters earlier this week. "Matter of fact, he or one of his lieutenants told every one of his members, 'don't you dare go out and help'". "Isn't that ironic?" Another Conservative premier, Tim Houston of Nova Scotia - who also did not campaign for Poilievre - said the federal party needs to do some "soul-searching" after its loss. "I think the Conservative Party of Canada was very good at pushing people away, not so good at pulling people in," Houston said. Not every premier stood on the sidelines. Poilievre was endorsed by Alberta's Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan's Scott Moe, both western Conservatives. Kory Teneycke, Ford's campaign manager, who publicly criticised Poilievre's campaign during the election, angering federal Conservatives, rejected the notion that Ford's failure to endorse Poilievre had cost him the election. He told the BBC that, to him, the bigger problem was Poilievre's failure to unite Conservative voters in Canada. "What constitutes a Conservative in different parts of the country can look quite different," he said, adding that Poilievre's populist rhetoric and aggressive style appealed to Conservatives in the west, but alienated those in the east. "There was a lot of Trump mimicry in terms of how they presented the campaign," Mr Teneycke said. "Donald Trump is public enemy number one to most in Canada, and I don't think it was coming across very well." He added he believes some of the "soul-searching" by Poilievre's Conservatives will need to include a plan of how to build a coalition of the right in a country "as big and diverse as Canada". Asked by reporters what it would take to heal the rift, Ford answered: "All they have to do is make a phone call." Why young voters flocked to Canada's Conservatives 'Build, baby, build': Five things Carney has pledged to do as Canadian PM How Canada voted - in charts The blunt-speaking Canadian taking his fight with Trump to Washington
BBC News
03-05-2025
- Politics
- BBC News
How Canada's Conservatives threw away a 27-point lead to lose again
Conservatives in Canada are trading blame for Monday night's election loss, showing that Pierre Poilievre will need to heal divisions within the movement as he fights to stay on as a clear Liberal win was emerging on election night, Conservative candidates and their supporters had one question: What the heck just happened?The party had lost a remarkable 27-point lead in opinion polls and failed to win an election for the fourth time in a row. And while it gained seats and earned almost 42% of the popular vote - its highest share since the party was founded in 2003 - its leader Poilievre was voted out of the seat he had held for the past 20 years."Nobody's happy about that," Shakir Chambers, a Conservative strategist and vice-president of Ontario-based consultancy firm the Oyster Group, told the party is now trying to work out how it will move forward. At the top of the agenda will be finding a way for the Conservatives to perform their duties as the Official Opposition - the second-place party in Canada's parliament whose job is to hold the sitting government to account - without their leader in the of a caucus meeting next Tuesday to discuss this, Poilievre announced on Friday his plan to run in an Alberta constituency special election to win back a special election will be triggered by the resignation of Conservative MP-elect Damien Kurek, who said he will voluntarily step down to let Poilievre back in after what he called "a remarkable national campaign"."An unstoppable movement has grown under his leadership, and I know we need Pierre fighting in the House of Commons," Kurek said in a the US, federal politicians in Canada do not have to live in the city or province they run in. Poilievre grew up in Alberta, however, and will likely win handily as the constituency he is running in is a Conservative stronghold.A big question is whether Poilievre still has the backing of his own party to stay on as leader. Mr Chambers said the answer, so far, is a resounding yes."Pierre has a lot of support in the caucus," he said. "I don't think there's anybody that wants him removed, or that has super high ambitions that wants to replace him as leader."A number of high-profile Conservatives have already rallied behind him. One of them is Andrew Scheer, a current MP and former leader of the party, who said Poilievre should stay on to "ensure we finish the job next time". Others are casting blame on where they went Jivani, who won his own constituency in a suburb of Toronto handily, felt that Ontario leader Doug Ford had betrayed the conservative movement and cost the party the federal and provincial Conservative parties are legally different entities, though they belong to the same ideological tent, and Ford is leader of Ontario's Progressive Conservative frequently made headlines during the election campaign for his get-tough attitude with Donald Trump and the US president's trade war. "He couldn't stay out of our business," Jivani told a CBC who in a past life attended Yale University with US Vice-President JD Vance, where the two became good friends, accused Ford of distracting from the federal Conservatives' campaign and of "positioning himself as some political genius that we need to be taking cues from".But Mr Chambers, the Conservative strategist, said that Poilievre will also need to confront where the party fell short. Poilievre, who is known for his combative political style, has struggled with being unlikeable among the general Canadian has also failed to shore up the support of popular Conservative leaders in some provinces, like Ontario's Ford, who did not campaign for Poilievre despite his recent landslide victory in a provincial election earlier this year. Ford did, however, post a photo of him and Liberal leader Mark Carney having a coffee."Last time I checked, Pierre Poilievre never came out in our election," Ford told reporters earlier this week. "Matter of fact, he or one of his lieutenants told every one of his members, 'don't you dare go out and help'"."Isn't that ironic?"Another Conservative premier, Tim Houston of Nova Scotia - who also did not campaign for Poilievre - said the federal party needs to do some "soul-searching" after its loss."I think the Conservative Party of Canada was very good at pushing people away, not so good at pulling people in," Houston every premier stood on the sidelines. Poilievre was endorsed by Alberta's Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan's Scott Moe, both western Teneycke, Ford's campaign manager, who publicly criticised Poilievre's campaign during the election, angering federal Conservatives, rejected the notion that Ford's failure to endorse Poilievre had cost him the told the BBC that, to him, the bigger problem was Poilievre's failure to unite Conservative voters in Canada."What constitutes a Conservative in different parts of the country can look quite different," he said, adding that Poilievre's populist rhetoric and aggressive style appealed to Conservatives in the west, but alienated those in the east."There was a lot of Trump mimicry in terms of how they presented the campaign," Mr Teneycke said. "Donald Trump is public enemy number one to most in Canada, and I don't think it was coming across very well."He added he believes some of the "soul-searching" by Poilievre's Conservatives will need to include a plan of how to build a coalition of the right in a country "as big and diverse as Canada".Asked by reporters what it would take to heal the rift, Ford answered: "All they have to do is make a phone call."
Winnipeg Free Press
28-04-2025
- Politics
- Winnipeg Free Press
Conservatives wrap up ‘wild election' asking voters to choose change
OTTAWA – Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's voice was filled with emotion Sunday night as he wrapped up his election campaign in his home riding of Carleton, in Ottawa. 'I want you to know that no matter what happens tomorrow, I will be there to fight for you,' he said, standing on the back of a pickup truck at a farm just outside Ottawa. His wife, Anaida Poilievre, openly cried as she and her husband waved goodbye to the crowd that welcomed them with cheers and chants. This is the riding where Poilievre was first elected in 2004. He won it for the seventh time in 2021 with 50 per cent of the votes cast. It was supposed to be among the safest sets in the country the party. But in the final week of the campaign, the Conservatives were pulling volunteers from other ridings to push the vote in Carleton, as even it was turning into a close contest with the Liberals. It is just one of the things about this election campaign that has come as a surprise to even the most plugged-in political observers. 'It's been a wild election that has not played out how I thought it would play out by any stretch of the imagination,' said Amanda Galbraith, a partner at Oyster Group and a former adviser to Stephen Harper. '(U.S. President Donald) Trump as the X-factor has been fascinating. Watching the campaigns play off of that — or try not to — has been fascinating to me.' Trump's tariffs and his repeated talk of making Canada the 51st state were constant features of the campaign. With fear and anxiety over the U.S.'s latest geopolitical manoeuvres growing in Canada, the Liberals pitched leader Mark Carney as the one best suited to dealing with the mercurial president. And the message resonated in ways the Conservatives could not have predicted just a few months earlier. Poilievre wanted to talk about anything but Trump unless the news cycle forced them to. Poilievre's campaign instead pumped out a steady stream of slogans with a central theme of voting for change after what he called 'the lost Liberal decade.' He held more than two dozen rallies, drawing in hundreds, even thousands, of supporters. Galbraith said the Conservative campaign was well-executed but the campaign team 'struggled at points to meet the moment when it comes to Trump.' For two months leading into the campaign Trump took Canadians on a wild ride of threatened tariffs, pauses and repeated insistence that this country would be better off as a U.S. state. Canadians responded en masse, cancelling U.S. travel plans, and shunning U.S. products, even booing the U.S. national anthem at sporting events in an explosion of Maple Leaf pride. Just five days into the campaign, Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on vehicles made outside the U.S. and demanded that automakers relocate their production to the United States. Carney, who paused his campaign to return to Parliament Hill and meet with cabinet ministers and business advisers as the prime minister, responded by saying Canada's old relationship with the U.S. was over, and promising billions to help the auto industry and its workers. 'We will need to dramatically reduce our reliance on the United States,' he said. Poilievre's policy announcement that day promised that a Conservative government would increase the annual limit on tax-free savings accounts. He paused only briefly during his daily statement to address the tariffs. 'My message to President Trump is, knock it off,' he said. Lori Turnbull, a professor in the faculty of management at Dalhousie University, said that was a key moment just four days into the race. 'I think this election, more than any I've ever watched, is about who is going to be the prime minister,' she said. And on that front, Turnbull said, 'Poilievre was the wrong candidate for this moment, and (the Conservatives) couldn't have seen that coming and they could not have changed it.' Poilievre has spent the better part of three years developing a strong narrative against the opponents he expected to face: former prime minister Justin Trudeau and the carbon price and the rising cost of living. He 'spoke directly to people who are feeling left out of Trudeau's vision for the country,' Turnbull said, and was a highly effective opposition leader. The way he held the Liberal government to account resonated with Jason Shoji, who attended a Conservative rally in Oakville, Ont., on Sunday morning. 'I really like how he talks in the House of Commons, he just speaks in really simple language, just like 'Yes or no? What's the exact number?'' he said. That pointed style of opposition helped build up a 25-point Conservative lead in the polls earlier this year that looked unshakable. Former prime minister Stephen Harper, talking to an American podcaster in January, said it would be almost impossible for a new Liberal leader to turn the tide. 'It would require a miracle on their part and some kind of disaster on our part, and Pierre is a smart enough politician, I just don't see those things happening,' he said. Polling firm Leger's latest national survey on Saturday suggested the Liberals have a four-point lead over the Conservatives nationally heading into voting day. Many Conservative supporters don't believe it. At events in the campaign's final days, some predicted a 'blue wave.' 'I think that people are very manipulated by media and stories that are put out there for propaganda, and I think we are going to show them that there's a silent majority, that there's people that are desperate for change,' said Ashleigh Pelser, who was the rally in Oakville. Joelle Weil, who hosted Poilievre's event at her family's farm in Keene, Ont., on Sunday afternoon, said she was feeling nervous about the election. Margaret Siddall, who came to the event from Peterborough, was also feeling anxious and said she thinks there will be protests and unrest if the Conservatives don't win. 'Part of me is hopeful that the media is wrong and I'm hoping he does it,' she said. Galbraith said if there is a path to victory for the Conservatives, it's a narrow one. The numbers in the national polls are tightening, but she said 'if you look at the regional numbers, it's not in the places that would benefit the Conservatives.' Many have questioned why Poilievre, who earned a reputation over the last two decades in Ottawa as a skilled political attack dog, never turned those sharp attacks against Trump. 'Canadians are very frustrated by what has happened over the last decade with the Liberal government, and there's lots of ways to prosecute that. But to me, you need to sound angrier at the U.S. president than you do at the Liberal leader,' Galbraith said. During Elections Get campaign news, insight, analysis and commentary delivered to your inbox during Canada's 2025 election. On the brighter side, she pointed out, Conservative support is actually quite high, according to polls. Leger's poll suggests 39 per cent of Canadians support Poilievre's party. That's roughly the same percentage that won Harper a majority in 2011. The major difference this time is that support for the NDP, and to a lesser extent the Bloc Québécois, has cratered. 'No matter what, should the Liberals form government on Monday, there will a lot of soul searching and within the party on a path forward,' Galbraith said. — With files from Cassandra Szklarski in Oakville, Ont., and Catherine Morrison in Keene, Ont. This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 28, 2025.
CBC
27-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Poilievre hopes young men are listening as he appeals for record turnout
Social Sharing Pierre Poilievre is trying to win over young people when he says he needs the "biggest voter turnout in Canadian history" to reverse a Liberal victory some polls suggest is a foregone conclusion, political experts say. Newly eligible voters, specifically men, are most likely to support Poilievre's Conservatives — but they're also the least likely demographic to vote according to historical trends, said David Coletto, founder and CEO of Ottawa-based polling and market research firm Abacus Data. "He needs, I think, an extraordinary level of turnout," Coletto said. "He needs to find a way to motivate younger, less reliable, less likely voters, people who may never have voted in an election before." CBC's Poll Tracker, which compiles publicly available polls, has the Conservatives with a level of popularity — 38.7 per cent — that would normally translate into a majority government come election day. But voter support has coalesced around the Liberals and Conservatives and turned this election into a two-party race, polling suggests. The Liberals have 42.5 per cent support, according to the aggregator. Big turnout is path to victory: Poilievre Poilievre made his pitch for a record turnout at a Calgary rally on Friday. Organizers say more than 3,000 people heard his call. "Are you going to reach out to all the people who may have given up on life and tell them that there's hope if they vote for a change?" Poilievre told the crowd. "We need the biggest voter turnout in Canadian history to deliver the change that Canadians need." In order to win, Coletto said the Conservatives must overcome the advantage the Liberals have among older voters, the demographic most likely to vote. In 2015, Justin Trudeau became prime minister in part because he won over young voters, Coletto noted. "And so in a way — ironically, actually — Mr. Poilievre is trying to replicate the success of Trudeau 10 years ago in getting those less reliable non-voters out this time." The Conservatives are likely hoping the polls are undercounting their support, something that occurred in the two previous elections, Coletto said. But he added that the polls missing by one or two percentage points again likely won't change the outcome of this year's election. "The only variable left is to outhustle and out-turnout your competitors." The Conservatives won the popular vote in the 2021 and 2019 elections, but lost those elections as well. Amanda Galbraith, a Conservative strategist, doesn't think the party's appeal for a record turnout is remarkable. She says every party is doing a get-out-the-vote push right now, and this is just how the Conservatives are going about it. She also believes, however, the Conservatives are targeting a demographic less likely to see voting as a duty. "It's one thing to engage [with young people]," said Galbraith, co-founder and partner of the communications firm Oyster Group. "It's another thing to get them out to vote or get their friends and colleagues out to vote." Political parties trying to bring down incumbent governments generally benefit from higher turnouts, as it usually shows voters' appetite for change, said Éric Grenier, the polling analyst who runs CBC's Poll Tracker and founded "But I question whether this is a normal election. There's obviously been a high engagement in the election," he said, noting the trade war caused by U.S. President Donald Trump. 'Go to Ontario' Elections Canada said an estimated 7.3 million Canadians — a record — cast their ballots during the advanced voting period. That's a 25 per cent increase from 2021. Geneviève Tellier, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, finds it puzzling Poilievre would call for a record turnout in Calgary, a Conservative stronghold, as it would mainly have the effect of padding the party's margin of victory there — aside from the few seats the Liberals are aiming to flip. Tellier suggested Poilievre doesn't expect to win the election anymore. "Why do you appeal to voters that won't change the numbers of ridings you will win?" she asked. "If the objective is to increase the [percentage] of popular support [that makes sense but] if the strategy is to win more seats, then go to Ontario." Calgary stop criticized The Conservatives' decision to visit Calgary in the final days of the campaign raised eyebrows from some party operatives who spoke to CBC News Friday. Two of them said the party should be making a play for swing voters elsewhere since there's little time before Monday's election. The quick rally, held at a private jet hangar near Calgary International Airport, was billed as a "whistle stop" on the way to B.C., a province crucial to the party's electoral hopes. Galbraith said it doesn't really matter where the Conservatives are asking for a record turnout, given that key messages from political rallies spread online with ease. It was in Edmonton where former prime minister Stephen Harper endorsed Poilievre, "but it was broadcast across the country so it doesn't matter where he does it any more," she said.
CBC
15-04-2025
- Business
- CBC
Trump and Ontario's tariff response likely to dominate Ford's throne speech
Ontario's legislature has returned for a shortened spring session with just over 20 days scheduled, and experts say Premier Doug Ford's throne speech is likely to focus on the continued fight against Trump's tariffs. The house returns for the first time since Ford won his third consecutive majority government in February. That rare winter election has meant politicians have been away from the legislature at a time when it would normally be sitting. Some strategists say the session will provide Ford's government its first opportunity to respond with targeted legislation aimed at helping businesses and workers impacted by the U.S. president's plan. "I think the immediate priority is obviously going to be whatever supports you can provide Ontarians in the face of Trump and his tariffs," said conservative strategist Shakir Chambers. "Getting those in place and just kind of setting the narrative for what the next four years are going to be like." On Tuesday, Ford's government will deliver its Speech from the Throne, a formal address read by Lt.-Gov. Edith Dumont that outlines the re-elected Progressive Conservatives' priorities over the next four years. The Ontario legislature returned Monday and elected a new speaker, Donna Skelly — the first woman to serve in the prestigious role in provincial history. WATCH | Hamilton MPP becomes 1st female Speaker of Ontario Legislature: Hamilton MPP becomes 1st female Speaker of Ontario Legislature 10 hours ago Duration 2:09 Spring session shorter due to snap winter election The spring session will be short-lived, lasting just 23 days in total including Monday's sitting to elect the speaker. Unless the government extends the session, the house will rise for the summer on June 5. The short session will limit the legislation the government can pass before the summer, said Chambers, who is a vice president with consulting firm Oyster Group. But he expects Ford will want to unveil some new bills, including a push to improve interprovincial trade and project permitting. "The premier was pretty clear on the campaign trail," Chambers said. "It takes way too long to get things built in this province. How can you speed up those timelines?" Early last week, the government announced $11 billion in tax deferrals and relief for businesses hit hard by tariffs. But NDP strategist Mélanie Richer says that after Ford's promises on the campaign trail people across the province now expect he'll announce additional programs for workers affected by the trade war — and the shortened session means that could be challenging. "It's not a lot of days, and folks are rightly worried and looking to Premier Ford and the government to follow through," said Richer, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies. WATCH | How Ford plans to help Ontario businesses affected by tariffs: Here's how Ford plans to help Ontario businesses affected by tariffs 7 days ago Duration 2:22 Former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy said he thinks Ford won't actually be around Queen's Park much if the damage from Trump's tariffs continues to grow. "I think Premier Ford is going to have to show a lot of empathy," said Milloy, who is now the director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University College. "I mean, if I was advising him, I would say, go out there and talk to laid off workers, talk to businesses that are struggling and be seen as someone on their side." McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe said he hopes the throne speech will give Ontarians a better idea of how the re-elected Ford government will translate their "Protect Ontario" election theme into action. "I think the government had the big challenge in that already before the election, people were wondering if it was more or less out of ideas," he said. "So part of it will be to say, well, 'These are the things we feel we got consent to do,' and to see whether Ontarians, in fact, agree that they gave their consent for the government to move those things forward." Graefe also expects the government will lean into building large infrastructure projects, like Highway 413 and the tunnel under Highway 401. In a campaign that was dominated by tariffs, the tunnel was one of the most notable and expensive promises made by Ford, he said. "It could, of course, also be, not only the biggest infrastructure project, but also the biggest boondoggle to the extent that the possibility of cost overruns would be large," Graefe said of the project, which some experts estimate will costs tens of billions of dollars. WATCH | How much experts think Ford's tunnel will cost: Ford's plan to build tunnel under Highway 401 could cost $100B, expert says 2 months ago Duration 3:57 Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford has said the province will build a tunnel under Highway 401 if he's re-elected. But as CBC's Lane Harrison explains, one expert says it could be the single-most expensive Ontario election promise in the last ten years. Milloy says he'll be watching how the NDP, Liberal and Green opposition members try to break through and hold the government to account during the new session. The election saw the NDP hang onto the role of official opposition by winning 27 seats. The Liberals made gains to once again become a recognized official party, with the funding bump that comes with it, by winning 14 seats. The Green Party held their two seats in the legislature. "The Liberal Party and the NDP as well, even throwing the Greens in, are in a very awkward situation, because the only issue that people want to talk about is Trump and the tariffs and the fallout," Milloy said.
