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Business Recorder
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil falls as IEA raises supply forecast, investors await US-Russia meeting
LONDON: Oil prices fell on Wednesday after the IEA noted supply overtaking demand this year, while investors awaited Friday's meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Brent crude futures fell 45 cents, or 0.7%, to $65.67 a barrel at 0831 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures edged down 53 cents, or 0.8% at $62.64. Both contracts settled lower on Tuesday. Trump and Putin are due to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending Russia's war in Ukraine, which has shaken oil markets since February 2022. 'Oil prices drifted lower on expectations that Friday's summit would not result in additional sanctions on Russia, ensuring the country's oil continues to flow predominantly to the south and east,' said PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga in a note. The International Energy Agency on Wednesday raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year following OPEC+'s decision but lowered its demand forecast due to lacklustre demand across the major economies. Long-term support, however, came from OPEC's updated monthly report on global supply and demand, Varga said, which raised its global oil demand forecast for next year and trimmed its estimate for growth in supply from the United States and other producers outside the wider OPEC+ group, pointing to a tighter market. Investors also awaited further cues after an industry report showed US crude stockpiles climbed last week. Crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, rose by 1.52 million barrels last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Gasoline inventories dropped while distillate inventories gained slightly. Analysts polled by Reuters expect today's Energy Information Administration report to show crude inventories fell by about 300,000 barrels last week. The EIA on Tuesday in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast Brent prices to average less than $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, which would be the first quarter with average prices that low since 2020, stating that growth in the global oil supply would surpass growth in demand for petroleum products. Reuters
Business Recorder
18-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil rises on Mideast risk
HOUSTON: Oil prices rose on Thursday as analysts pointed to low inventories and renewed Middle East risks as factors supporting the market. Brent crude futures were up 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $68.75 a barrel by 11:04 a.m. ET (1504 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 67 cents, or 1%, to $67.05 a barrel. US President Donald Trump has said letters notifying smaller countries of their US tariff rates would go out soon, and has also alluded to prospects of a deal with Beijing on illicit drugs and a possible agreement with the European Union. 'Near-term prices (are) set to remain volatile due to the uncertainty over the final scale of US tariffs and the resultant impact on global growth,' said Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, adding that prices would likely settle lower in the medium term. The oil market was also reacting to a tightened inventory scenario, said John Evans, analyst at PVM Oil Associates. US crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, government data on Wednesday showed, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 552,000-barrel draw. Last week, the International Energy Agency said that oil output increases were not leading to higher inventories, which showed markets were thirsty for more oil. 'Oil thinking has been distracted from the Middle East, and the reminders of Israel's attacks into Syria and the drone attacks on oil infrastructure in Kurdistan are timely and once again add a little fizz to proceedings,' Evans said. Drone attacks on oilfields in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have slashed crude output by up to 150,000 barrels per day, two energy officials said on Wednesday, as infrastructure damage forced multiple shutdowns. Markets were continuing to look for signals of tighter supply or higher demand, but clarity was lacking, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group. 'Everybody is waiting for the boogie man, but the boogie man hasn't shown up yet,' Flynn said. Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico was not expected to develop into a named storm as it makes its way west before moving onshore in Louisiana later on Thursday. Rainfall totals in Southeast Louisiana were expected to be about four inches (10 cm), according to the US National Hurricane Center.
New Straits Times
17-07-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Oil prices gain on geopolitical risks, inventory worries
LONDON: Oil prices rose on Thursday, even as global trade tensions appeared to cool, with analysts pointing to low inventories and renewed Middle East risks as factors supporting the market. Brent crude futures were up 31 cents, or around 0.5 per cent, to US$68.83 a barrel at 1203 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 61 cents, or 0.9 per cent, at US$66.99. US President Donald Trump has said letters notifying smaller countries of their US tariff rates would go out soon, and has also alluded to prospects of a deal with Beijing on illicit drugs and a possible agreement with the European Union. "Near-term prices (are) set to remain volatile due to the uncertainty over the final scale of US tariffs and the resultant impact on global growth," said Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, adding that prices would likely settle lower in the medium term. The oil market on Thursday was also reacting to a tightened inventory scenario, said John Evans, analyst at PVM Oil Associates. Last week, the International Energy Agency said that oil output increases were not leading to higher inventories, which showed markets were thirsty for more oil. "Oil thinking has been distracted from the Middle East, and the reminders of Israel's attacks into Syria and the drone attacks on oil infrastructure in Kurdistan are timely and once again add a little fizz to proceedings," Evans said. Drone attacks on oilfields in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have slashed crude output by up to 150,000 barrels per day, two energy officials said on Wednesday, as infrastructure damage forced multiple shutdowns. "For now, oil market indicators continue to suggest the physical market remains tight. But ongoing trade tensions could weigh on oil demand growth prospects and pose downside risks to prices," said UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Time of India
17-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Oil prices gain on geopolitical risks, inventory worries
Oil prices rose on Thursday, even as global trade tensions appeared to cool, while analysts pointed to low inventories and renewed Middle East risks as factors which were supporting the market. Brent crude futures were up 17 cents, or around 0.3%, to $68.69 a barrel at 1050 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 35 cents, or 0.5%, at $66.73. U.S. President Donald Trump has said letters notifying smaller countries of their U.S. tariff rates would go out soon, and has also alluded to prospects of a deal with Beijing on illicit drugs and a possible agreement with the European Union. "Near-term prices (are) set to remain volatile due to the uncertainty over the final scale of U.S. tariffs and the resultant impact on global growth," said Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, adding that prices would likely settle lower in the medium term. The oil market on Thursday was also reacting to a tightened inventory scenario, said John Evans, analyst at PVM Oil Associates. Last week, the International Energy Agency said that oil output increases were not leading to higher inventories, which showed markets were thirsty for more oil. "Oil thinking has been distracted from the Middle East, and the reminders of Israel's attacks into Syria and the drone attacks on oil infrastructure in Kurdistan are timely and once again add a little fizz to proceedings," Evans said. Drone attacks on oilfields in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have slashed crude output by up to 150,000 barrels per day, two energy officials said on Wednesday, as infrastructure damage forced multiple shutdowns. "For now, oil market indicators continue to suggest the physical market remains tight. But ongoing trade tensions could weigh on oil demand growth prospects and pose downside risks to prices," said UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Business Times
24-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Oil prices drop 6% as Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces Middle East supply risk
[NEW YORK] Oil prices fell 6 per cent on Tuesday (Jun 24) to settle at a two-week low, on expectations the ceasefire between Israel and Iran will reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. The ceasefire was on shaky ground with US President Donald Trump accusing both Israel and Iran of violating it just hours after it was announced. Brent crude futures fell US$4.34, or 6.1 per cent, to settle at US$67.14 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell US$4.14, or 6 per cent, to settle at US$64.37. Settlement was the lowest for Brent since Jun 10 and WTI since Jun 5, both before Israel launched a surprise attack on key Iranian military and nuclear facilities on Jun 13. 'The geopolitical risk premium built up since the first Israeli strike on Iran almost two weeks ago has entirely vanished,' said Tamas Varga, a senior analyst at TP ICAP's PVM Oil Associates brokerage and consulting firm. On Monday, both oil contracts settled down more than 7 per cent. They had rallied to five-month highs after the US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Direct US involvement in the war had investors worried about the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, through which between 18 million and 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and fuels flow, nearly a fifth of global consumption. Prices also fell as Trump said China, the world's biggest oil importer, can continue to purchase oil from Iran. In other supply news, Kazakhstan's state energy company KazMunayGaz raised its forecast for oil output at the Chevron-led Tengiz oilfield, the country's largest, to 35.7 million tonnes in 2025 from 34.8 million tonnes expected previously. Kazakhstan is a member of the Opec+ group of countries that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies. Several other Opec+ members have also been increasing output. In Guyana, oil output rose to 667,000 bpd in May from 611,000 bpd in April, fuelled by increases at two of three production facilities operated by US major ExxonMobil. US economy and oil inventories Another factor weighing on oil prices came from US consumer confidence, which unexpectedly deteriorated in June as households increasingly worried about job availability and economic uncertainty from Trump's tariffs. US Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams said he expects slower growth and higher inflation this year, due in large part to trade tariffs, in comments that suggested he was in no rush to cut interest rates, which could boost economic growth and oil demand. The American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) were due to release US oil inventory data, Analysts forecast energy firms pulled about 0.8 million barrels of oil from US stockpiles during the week ended Jun 20. If correct, that would be the first time energy firms pulled oil from storage for five weeks in a row since January. That compares with a build of 3.6 million barrels during the same week last year and an average decrease of 2.5 million barrels over the past five years (2020 to 2024). The API releases its numbers on Tuesday and the EIA on Wednesday. REUTERS
