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The Hill
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Why Netanyahu and Hamas both want to keep the Gaza war going
I wrote three months ago that 'Netanyahu and Sinwar have common interests in prolonging the war.' Incredibly, but for the details, the analysis remains the same. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu'.'s stated goals since Oct. 7, 2023, have been incoherent, but his catchphrases have evolved. It started with the nebulous 'wiping out Hamas' and the undefined 'total victory.' Only after prodding was 'the return of the hostages' added. After 22 months, Netanyahu no longer considers the return of the hostages a war goal — even though 74 percent of the Israeli population supports a hostage deal and the end of the war. Netanyahu has failed to delineate a 'day after' plan or create the conditions that would enable a credible 'day after' plan. After the ill-conceived Trump plan was announced in March, which called for the evacuation of all Gazans while a Trump Gaza 'riviera' was built, Netanyahu adopted the removal of all Gazans as an additional war goal. Trump has moved away from his own concept, but Netanyahu and his ultra-nationalist coalition clings to the vision of a Palestinian-free Gaza. As a result, Netanyahu has continued a war, despite the Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, telling the Cabinet in June that further operations would endanger the hostages and serve no military purpose. More recently, Zamir implored the Cabinet to devise a political strategy. Netanyahu and the Cabinet have nothing to offer other than to float the annexation of Gaza. In the meantime, Israel's status as a pariah nation is being solidified daily. Netanyahu believes he is the state and has no regard for the consequences of his actions. He persists in a war with no further purpose — in which Israeli casualties increase and Hamas is strengthened every day — for three purely personal reasons. First, Netanyahu's coalition is dependent on far-right ultra-nationalist parties, who threaten to bolt the coalition if there is a hostage deal and an end to the war. Second, Netanyahu knows that he will lose the next election and will be out of power. Third, if he loses power, he will no longer be able to put off his corruption trial on charges that predate the war. He could go to jail. So his best hope to continue the war and hope he can blame Oct. 7 on everyone else. Less than 40 percent of Israelis now trust Netanyahu. But let's not forget Hamas. Like Netanyahu, Hamas has its own interests in prolonging the conflict. With pressure on Netanyahu from Trump, Hamas could end the conflict by agreeing to return the Israeli hostages and self-exiling a nominal set of leaders. Hamas's first instinct, however, is survival as a political force. Most of the original Hamas leadership from the start of the war — Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Dief, Marwan Issa and Mohammed Sinwar — have been killed. The second string, however, appears to have done a good job in recruitment, by means of cash payments and intimidation. On Oct. 7, Hamas had roughly 30,000 fighters divided into five brigades, 24 battalions and multiple specialized forces — including air, maritime and special operations. It was estimated to have 30,000 rockets (not missiles), which made Hamas larger than some European militaries. By August 2024, Israel claimed to have destroyed 21 of Hamas's 24 battalions, and killed about 20,000 fighters (which are subsumed in the reported Palestinian death totals). But recent reports indicate that Hamas has recruited an equal number since Israel broke the ceasefire in March 2025. The majority of Gazans are under 30. With no economy amidst the rubble, most are looking for ways to support their families and obtain food. Hamas has an easy recruitment base. Hamas also recognizes that Israel's international situation is being degraded daily by viral images of the suffering and starvation of the populace — a situation created by Netanyahu's unilateral cut-off of most humanitarian aid into Gaza in March. Regardless of any role Hamas may play in hijacking aid, the humanitarian travesty is harmful to Gazans and is a self-inflicted injury on Israel by Netanyahu that Hamas is happy exploit. Further, France, the U.K. and Canada have announced that they will recognize the State of Palestine in September without an end to the war, though that recognition will go the Palestinian Authority, not Hamas. The Hamas massacres of Oct. 7 — which Sinwar knew would lead to massive Israeli retaliation — has led to devastation and destruction in Gaza beyond anyone's imagination. Netanyahu, knowing his political career could be over, clings to power and is willing to sacrifice Israel's international standing and the lives of Israeli soldiers to remain in power. Hamas brought calamity on the people of Gaza and knows that it too would lose a free election, and thus similarly seeks to prolong the conflict. In the meantime, Gazans and Israelis suffer.
Arab News
17-02-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Palestinians must be given the chance to rebuild Gaza
Does US President Donald Trump have a point? To an extent, maybe. Gaza is a 'hellhole.' In fact, it has been a hellhole for years as a result of previous Israeli bombardments. Rebuilding Gaza will be some challenge. The UN estimates there is about 50 million tonnes of rubble, intermingled with an array of unexploded ordnance. Technically, it would be easier to empty Gaza temporarily. The trouble is that this was not what Trump was suggesting. Trump wants a Palestinian-free Gaza to indulge his real estate dreams. He made it clear Palestinians would not be allowed to return — a violation of international law constituting the forced displacement of a civilian population. This plan exhibits no understanding of the historical Palestinian experience, whereby 70 percent of the Palestinian population became refugees between 1947 and 1949, hundreds of thousands were displaced again in 1967 and, during the last 16 months, 90 percent of the population of Gaza was again forcibly displaced. This was no great humanitarian proposal, as the White House tried to make out. Palestinians have long demonstrated a determination not to be forcibly displaced yet again. It is their right to stay on the land. They show no signs of leaving it. Anti-Palestinian groups argue that Palestinians in Gaza could leave voluntarily. There can be nothing voluntary about leaving in a situation where they have already been bombed and starved into near-oblivion. This dream was not an off-the-cuff moment. Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner made similar comments about cleaning up Gaza last year. Trump was shown ambitious plans for the Gaza riviera development that were devised by an economics professor at George Washington University, Joseph Pelzman. Why can Palestinians not dream of their riviera on the Mediterranean in Gaza? Is this so outlandish? Just as most of the world argued that any solution for the Syrian Arab Republic must be Syrian-led, any solution for Palestine has to be Palestinian-led. Gaza is for Palestinians and all designs on the future of the Strip must be devised by them, for them and with them. Pelzman's paper was decidedly not this and it reads as if it had been drafted by a committee of Israeli settler pogromists. It states that the administration of Gaza would be 'subcontracted to the selected investors and/or their representatives.' The education curriculum would be based on those from other states. Gaza is for Palestinians and all designs on the future of the Strip must be devised by them, for them and with them Chris Doyle Arab states are hurriedly devising their own plans. This includes the state of Palestine. This is vital given the need to demonstrate that there is a workable alternative — and there certainly is — to the suggestions emanating from the White House. The costs will be astronomic — the UN estimates about $50 billion. However, until a proper assessment is carried out, it is only educated guesswork. No donor state will fund this, nor will private businesses invest unless there are cast-iron guarantees that Israel will not flatten Gaza again. Who would even dare to suggest that Israel pays compensation, let alone contribute to the reconstruction costs, as it should? It should be understood that Gaza was not, as Trump described, a 'demolition site.' It has been bombarded into rubble as a deliberate Israeli strategy. Israel has a responsibility, though few suggest that Israel should offer temporary shelter to Palestinians with no homes. Reconstruction requires the blockade to be lifted and the unimpeded entry of construction materials and equipment. The dual-use system Israel enforces has to be ditched, as it prevents the import of essential construction materials. The systematic Israeli destruction of the healthcare system means that hospitals need to be rebuilt. The Israeli-orchestrated scholasticide also saw the bombing of every single university site in Gaza, while 87 percent of schools have been damaged or destroyed. This means that the education system also needs to be rebuilt. The entire water, sanitation and power infrastructure has to be rebuilt. To encourage the return of proper economic life in Gaza, which has been throttled by decades of occupation and siege, it needs a port, an airport and safe passage to the West Bank, all of which were agreed to under the Oslo Accords. The political system needs to be rebuilt too. It requires a Palestinian administration in Gaza that, first and foremost, has the support of Palestinians. It also has to attract the confidence of the international community. This is unlikely to be Hamas. So, who? A refreshed Palestinian political order is a medium- to long-term project for Palestinians, but a technocratic government would be a start. Israel should not have a veto, nor should the US. If Israel wants security and not territory, then a thriving Gaza is definitely in its best interest. Palestinians are capable of rebuilding Gaza themselves, if permitted, although genuine international assistance would be welcome. They have the skills, the motivation and the experience. But they cannot do this with the dead weight of the Israeli occupation blunting any endeavor. • Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech
