Latest news with #Payong
Bangkok Post
5 days ago
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Thai growth projections upgraded on lower US tariffs
The local private sector has increased its forecast for Thai GDP growth this year to 1.8-2.2%, rising from an estimate of 1.5-2% following the recent US decision to reduce tariffs on imports from Thailand from 36% to 19%. At its meeting on Wednesday, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking cited the US tariff reduction as a key factor contributing to the improved economic outlook. The committee also upgraded its forecast for Thai export growth from -0.5% to 0.3%, rising to a more optimistic 2-3% growth, aligning with positive global economic signals after the latest US tariff announcements for many other countries. Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association, said the 19% reciprocal tariff imposed on Thai goods helps the nation avoid the worst-case scenario of losing competitiveness against neighbouring countries, which are now subject to similar tariff levels. However, Mr Payong cautioned that economic growth in the second half of the year is expected to slow, largely due to persistent export challenges. Headwinds include intensified price competition from import surges, declining foreign arrivals and tourism revenue, and the ongoing Thailand-Cambodia border conflict - all of which could dampen economic performance in the latter half of the year. In addition, Mr Payong said, Thailand is likely to face greater challenges from the final quarter of this year into early 2026. Given this outlook, Thailand needs to pursue business and economic reforms to better prepare for long-term uncertainties, Mr Payong said. Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said the US tariff policy should serve as a wake-up call for Thailand to strengthen its long-term competitiveness, particularly in the manufacturing sector and small and medium-sized enterprises. He called for industrial restructuring and identification of priority sectors aligned with national strategies. Thai manufacturers must enhance production processes across supply chains and upstream industries to increase local content, improve productivity and reduce costs. Adoption of technology and innovation, along with workforce upskilling, including both Thai and migrant workers, was essential to building real economic value. Mr Kriengkrai said the private sector is ready to cooperate with the government, especially in providing data support. Thailand lacks critical industry-level structural data, such as the usage of primary and intermediate raw materials and regional value content, he said. To comply with new US export requirements, the private sector has begun collecting baseline data. However, to develop a comprehensive and reliable database, cooperation from public sector agencies is essential. Such data will be critical for policy decisions and international negotiations in the evolving global trade landscape, Mr Kriengkrai said. Poj Aramwattananont, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said that despite a US tariff rate regarded as consistent for the region, Thailand still requires economic adjustments in both the short and long term. In the near term, price competition is expected to intensify for both Thai exports and domestic products, which will face growing pressure from increased import competition due to expanded market access, he warned.
Bangkok Post
15-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Bankers' association pushes formal economy to the fore
The use of public policy to support the economy should primarily focus on the formal economy and Thai labour, according to Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association (TBA). Speaking at the iBusiness Forum seminar hosted on Tuesday by the Manager Group, Mr Payong said this approach would help drive economic mechanisms and boost Thai people's income over the next 5-7 years. Last week, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking (JSCCIB) held discussions with the Bank of Thailand (BoT) on economic support through public policy, as heightened uncertainties -- particularly due to the US tariffs -- are expected to impact both business and household sectors in various ways. The private sector council proposed that the use of public policy to support the economy should primarily focus on the formal economy and Thai labour. Typically the formal economy covers both taxpayers and non-taxpayers. According to Mr Payong, the current economic situation, impacted by US tariffs, presents an opportunity for both the public and private sectors to initiate meaningful reforms in economic and business practices. During global crises in the past, many countries leveraged the situation to reform their economies and enhance their post-crisis potential. For instance, during the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, global GDP growth fell sharply -- dropping to 2.1% in 2008 and contracting by 1.3% in 2009 -- down from growth rates of 4.5% in 2006 and 4.4% in 2007. In the aftermath, global GDP rebounded, reaching 4.5% in 2010 and 3.3% in 2011. Similarly, during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, global GDP contracted by 2.9%. In response, many countries, including Southeast Asian nations, undertook significant economic reforms, leading to improved growth potential post-pandemic. "Thailand, however, has not yet capitalised on such crises as opportunities for meaningful economic reform. Now is an opportune moment to implement reforms in preparation for future recovery," Mr Payong said. He noted that reforms should focus on Thailand's export and manufacturing sectors, both of which are vulnerable to US tariffs, as well as long-standing structural issues. Technological development is another critical area, which is essential for improving national productivity and upskilling the Thai workforce. In 2024, Thailand ranked 39th globally in digital and technological skills, trailing Singapore (2nd), Indonesia (20th) and Malaysia (36th). ChatGPT adoption per internet user in Thailand stands at 6%, compared to 17% in the Philippines, 14% in Malaysia, 9% in Vietnam and 7% in Indonesia. Mr Payong also stressed the need for increased investment in research and development (R&D) to boost productivity and GDP per capita. Currently, Thailand's R&D investment is less than 20% of GDP, he noted.
Bangkok Post
02-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Firms call for calm amid political tumult
Three major private sector groups have expressed growing concern over political instability, urging the government to ramp up efforts to rebuild trust and confidence among the public and businesses. Speaking after a meeting of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) on Wednesday, Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association, said a key element in rebuilding trust and confidence is emphasising the rule of law. According to Mr Payong, the JSCCIB is preparing to hold discussions with the Bank of Thailand, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), the Finance Ministry and the Commerce Ministry to realign economic priorities given the limited available resources, with a focus on the next 6-12 months. "The objective of the meetings is to reprioritise in line with global transformations and the intense challenges we're facing," he said. Political uncertainty could impact government disbursements and the formulation of the 2026 budget, said Mr Payong. If budget disbursements are delayed, this will affect the national economy, he said. Poj Aramwattananont, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the private sector is worried about the government's stability. Political processes must be concluded as quickly as possible so the country can function normally again, he said. In addition, a special taskforce is needed to restore confidence both domestically and internationally, said Mr Poj. "We are in a vulnerable position, facing economic challenges stemming from both domestic and international issues. We urge the government to act swiftly to address these problems," he said. "We are not involved in politics. Whichever group forms the government is fine, but it needs to get to work on solving problems promptly and listening to the views of the private sector." The JSCCIB expects Thailand's economy to grow by 1.5-2.0% this year, unchanged from a previous forecast, with exports shrinking by 0.5-0.3% and headline inflation ranging between 0.5-1.0%. However, if the US imposes a reciprocal tariff rate of 18% on Thai exports, this could lower Thai GDP growth to 1.5% this year, said Mr Payong. The JSCCIB is also concerned about the baht's appreciation to 32.5 per US dollar, which it views as stronger than other regional currencies. Meanwhile, he said Thailand needs more protective measures to support both the domestic manufacturing and service sectors in a balanced and standardised way, including addressing the subrogation of import rights of Thai-made products by third countries and improving the Board of Investment's (BoI) incentives. Companies receiving BoI investment privileges should be required to use designated levels of local content, employ domestic labour, and support Thailand's supply chain, said Mr Payong. The JSCCIB predicts Thai exports grew 15% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, though a contraction of 10% is anticipated in the second half, putting full-year export growth close to 0%. Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said in the first five months of this year, Thai exports expanded by 14.9%, with a gain of 18% in May. However, this level of export growth contrasts with the weak performance of Thailand's Manufacturing Production Index. He suggested the high export figures may be due to transshipments -- using Thailand as a pass-through hub for goods bound for third countries, notably to the US, which surged 27% for the period. Imports from China in the first five months also rose 29% year-on-year. Mr Kriengkrai recommended protective measures for domestic producers and a review of investment promotion policies. He also addressed the Thailand-Cambodia border trade dispute, noting total trade between the two countries totals 180 billion baht, with 170 billion coming from border trade. Border checkpoint closures have affected trade by about 500 million baht per day, with Thailand losing about 390 million baht in exports and Cambodia about 100 million baht in exports to Thailand.
