Latest news with #PeterBerezin
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Wall Street's biggest bear still expects a recession and much lower stock prices
The new US-China trade thaw hasn't shaken Wall Street's biggest bear. "We continue to see a recession as our base case. Although tariffs have come down, the effective US tariff rate is still the highest since the 1930s. The US economy was also on a weaker footing than widely believed even before the trade war began," BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin warned in a new note. "Stocks are not pricing in much recession risk, which suggests that a cautious stance towards equities is warranted." Berezin gained attention for being the lone bear on Wall Street coming into 2025 and sporting the lowest price target on the S&P 500 (^GSPC) at 4,450. His bearish call on stocks has mostly been right, at least up to the recent rally after the market tanked post-"Liberation Day." And on the economy, US GDP contracted 0.3% in the first quarter. In 2022, Berezin also correctly called that there would be no US recession, despite most on the Street bracing for one. He's been an economist for more than 30 years, with stints at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Goldman Sachs, and now BCA Research. In his latest note, Berezin did take his recession probability odds down to 60% from 75%. But he points to weakness in the labor market and consumer spending during a time of considerable tariff fears as key reasons for his economic concerns. "If existing tariff rates remain in place, they will reduce disposable income for the median US household by about 2%, with larger effects for lower-income families," Berezin explains. Listen: Why the tariff thaw isn't super bullish for stocks He reiterated a call for the S&P 500 to plunge 25% from current levels to end 2025 at 4,450, backed up by his cautious view on the US economy. "While not our base case, we would assign 30% odds to a major fiscal crisis this year — one that takes the 10-year Treasury yield north of 6%," Berezin added. This comes as the markets are moving back up and to the right. The US and China agreed on Monday to ratchet down the tariff war for 90 days as each economy begins to feel the pressure of bruising penalties. After a weekend of high-level meetings in Switzerland, the US will reduce "reciprocal" tariffs on goods from China to 10% from 125%. A separate 20% tariff imposed by Trump over what he says is China's role in the fentanyl trade will remain intact. China will cut its retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 10% from 125%. The S&P 500 reversed its losses on the year on Tuesday but gave back some gains on Wednesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) entered a new bull market on Monday. The "Magnificent Seven" complex — Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG) — are back leading the market higher in a clear show of renewed risk appetite. Watch: Charles Schwab's CEO has a message to new investors But to Berezin's point, the trade war with China is far from finished. "Well, I don't think it will ever quite be over, but what will be over are these tariffs up over 100%," billionaire businessman and longtime Trump confidant Wilbur Ross told me on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast (see video above). Ross added, "There's probably always a 20% or 25% chance of recession, and it's been many years since we had a real recession. COVID, you have to put to the side because that was not an economic recession — that had to do with the horrible epidemic. So it's been a long time, and we're therefore due for a recession at some point." Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Wall Street's biggest bear still expects a recession and much lower stock prices
The new US-China trade thaw hasn't shaken Wall Street's biggest bear. "We continue to see a recession as our base case. Although tariffs have come down, the effective US tariff rate is still the highest since the 1930s. The US economy was also on a weaker footing than widely believed even before the trade war began," BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin warned in a new note. "Stocks are not pricing in much recession risk, which suggests that a cautious stance towards equities is warranted." Berezin gained attention for being the lone bear on Wall Street coming into 2025 and sporting the lowest price target on the S&P 500 (^GSPC) at 4,450. His bearish call on stocks has mostly been right, at least up to the recent rally after the market tanked post-"Liberation Day." And on the economy, US GDP contracted 0.3% in the first quarter. In 2022, Berezin also correctly called that there would be no US recession, despite most on the Street bracing for one. He's been an economist for more than 30 years, with stints at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Goldman Sachs, and now BCA Research. In his latest note, Berezin did take his recession probability odds down to 60% from 75%. But he points to weakness in the labor market and consumer spending during a time of considerable tariff fears as key reasons for his economic concerns. "If existing tariff rates remain in place, they will reduce disposable income for the median US household by about 2%, with larger effects for lower-income families," Berezin explains. Listen: Why the tariff thaw isn't super bullish for stocks He reiterated a call for the S&P 500 to plunge 25% from current levels to end 2025 at 4,450, backed up by his cautious view on the US economy. "While not our base case, we would assign 30% odds to a major fiscal crisis this year — one that takes the 10-year Treasury yield north of 6%," Berezin added. This comes as the markets are moving back up and to the right. The US and China agreed on Monday to ratchet down the tariff war for 90 days as each economy begins to feel the pressure of bruising penalties. After a weekend of high-level meetings in Switzerland, the US will reduce "reciprocal" tariffs on goods from China to 10% from 125%. A separate 20% tariff imposed by Trump over what he says is China's role in the fentanyl trade will remain intact. China will cut its retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 10% from 125%. The S&P 500 reversed its losses on the year on Tuesday but gave back some gains on Wednesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) entered a new bull market on Monday. The "Magnificent Seven" complex — Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG) — are back leading the market higher in a clear show of renewed risk appetite. Watch: Charles Schwab's CEO has a message to new investors But to Berezin's point, the trade war with China is far from finished. "Well, I don't think it will ever quite be over, but what will be over are these tariffs up over 100%," billionaire businessman and longtime Trump confidant Wilbur Ross told me on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast (see video above). Ross added, "There's probably always a 20% or 25% chance of recession, and it's been many years since we had a real recession. COVID, you have to put to the side because that was not an economic recession — that had to do with the horrible epidemic. So it's been a long time, and we're therefore due for a recession at some point." Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Wall Street's biggest bear isn't budging on his calls after Trump tariff pause
It's going to take more than a reciprocal tariff pause to keep Wall Street's biggest bear from roaming the markets and heading into hibernation. "Based on my calculations, the tariff rate is still quite high — at least as high as anything we have seen since the 1930s. There is no guarantee these so-called reciprocal tariffs are going to come down. The fact of the matter is that most countries don't have very large trade barriers with the US," BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin tells me. Added Berezin, "The uncertainty is a problem —I think we are still headed into a recession, unfortunately." Berezin has told me recently he sees a 75% chance of a US recession this year and the S&P 500 dropping 15% to 4,450. He hasn't ruled out the US already being in a mild recession. Listen: Why Jamie Dimon may be wrong on a recession Berezin gained attention for being the lone bear on Wall Street coming into 2025. Further, he correctly called in 2022 there would be no US recession — despite most on the Street bracing for one. He has been an economist for more than 30 years, with stints at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Goldman Sachs, and now BCA Research. The bearish calls on markets and the economy comes amid another turbulent weeks for stocks as some traders aimed to price in a recession while others took the more optimistic viewpoint. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) on Thursday tanked 1,014.79 points or 2.5%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) sold off to the tune of 3.46% and 4.31%, respectively. Investor favorites in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) plunged 6% and 7.3%, respectively. Markets essentially dialed back their excitement after a historic day on Wednesday. The S&P 500 exploded 9.5% on Wednesday as President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries. He cranked up the pressure on China, however, taking tariffs up to 145%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 12% for its second-best day on record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up 7.8%, or about 3,000 points. The about face on tariffs caused Goldman Sachs economists to reverse their baseline recession call ... made earlier that day. Stock futures were solidly in the red on Friday. Despite the elevated market volatility, some Wall Street strategists are aiming to search the rubble for buying opportunities. Most calls reviewed by Yahoo Finance focus on defensive stock tilts rather than buying recent dips on former high-flyers in Apple (AAPL), Nvidia, and Tesla. "This week's stunning reversals demonstrate how quickly things can change on both the policy/macro front and for equities. Given singular updates can determine risk-on vs. risk-off, we believe a balanced approach is warranted," said the Jefferies equity research team in a note today. "The current macro backdrop calls for a different tack than the classic cyclicals vs. defensives or straightforward factor-based approaches. With tariffs yet to be decided, significant estimate revisions may still be on the come, calling current multiples into question. Equally, given recent degrossing and better-than-feared macro data points, negotiation updates or policy u-turns can change sentiment quickly," the team explained. "As a result, we think investors are well-advised to allocate toward both companies with less direct exposure to tariffs & downward spiraling growth, as well as beaten-down shares resembling coiled springs." Top ideas include Coca-Cola (KO), McDonald's (MCD), Ralph Lauren (RL), Exxon (XOM), Netflix (NFLX), and Uber (UBER). Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Wall Street's biggest bear isn't budging on his calls after Trump tariff pause
It's going to take more than a reciprocal tariff pause to keep Wall Street's biggest bear from roaming the markets and heading into hibernation. "Based on my calculations, the tariff rate is still quite high — at least as high as anything we have seen since the 1930s. There is no guarantee these so-called reciprocal tariffs are going to come down. The fact of the matter is that most countries don't have very large trade barriers with the US," BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin tells me. Added Berezin, "The uncertainty is a problem —I think we are still headed into a recession, unfortunately." Berezin has told me recently he sees a 75% chance of a US recession this year and the S&P 500 dropping 15% to 4,450. He hasn't ruled out the US already being in a mild recession. Listen: Why Jamie Dimon may be wrong on a recession Berezin gained attention for being the lone bear on Wall Street coming into 2025. Further, he correctly called in 2022 there would be no US recession — despite most on the Street bracing for one. He has been an economist for more than 30 years, with stints at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Goldman Sachs, and now BCA Research. The bearish calls on markets and the economy comes amid another turbulent weeks for stocks as some traders aimed to price in a recession while others took the more optimistic viewpoint. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) on Thursday tanked 1,014.79 points or 2.5%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) sold off to the tune of 3.46% and 4.31%, respectively. Investor favorites in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) plunged 6% and 7.3%, respectively. Markets essentially dialed back their excitement after a historic day on Wednesday. The S&P 500 exploded 9.5% on Wednesday as President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries. He cranked up the pressure on China, however, taking tariffs up to 145%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 12% for its second-best day on record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up 7.8%, or about 3,000 points. The about face on tariffs caused Goldman Sachs economists to reverse their baseline recession call ... made earlier that day. Stock futures were solidly in the red on Friday. Despite the elevated market volatility, some Wall Street strategists are aiming to search the rubble for buying opportunities. Most calls reviewed by Yahoo Finance focus on defensive stock tilts rather than buying recent dips on former high-flyers in Apple (AAPL), Nvidia, and Tesla. "This week's stunning reversals demonstrate how quickly things can change on both the policy/macro front and for equities. Given singular updates can determine risk-on vs. risk-off, we believe a balanced approach is warranted," said the Jefferies equity research team in a note today. "The current macro backdrop calls for a different tack than the classic cyclicals vs. defensives or straightforward factor-based approaches. With tariffs yet to be decided, significant estimate revisions may still be on the come, calling current multiples into question. Equally, given recent degrossing and better-than-feared macro data points, negotiation updates or policy u-turns can change sentiment quickly," the team explained. "As a result, we think investors are well-advised to allocate toward both companies with less direct exposure to tariffs & downward spiraling growth, as well as beaten-down shares resembling coiled springs." Top ideas include Coca-Cola (KO), McDonald's (MCD), Ralph Lauren (RL), Exxon (XOM), Netflix (NFLX), and Uber (UBER). Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
09-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Tariff Uncertainty Grips Markets
"Bloomberg Markets" follows the market moves across every global asset class and discusses the biggest issues for Wall Street. Today's guests: BCA Research Chief Global Investment Strategist Peter Berezin, Coresight Research CEO Deborah Weinswig, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Kelsey Berro, BMO Capital Markets Biotech and Pharma Analyst Evan Seigerman, and Bloomberg's David Lee. (Source: Bloomberg)
