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Scientific American
3 days ago
- Climate
- Scientific American
Why This Hurricane Season Has Experts on Edge
June 1 marks the official start of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean—and once again, the season looks like it will be busy. Though it is impossible to tell this far in advance exactly when storms will form and where they might hit, the presence of hurricane-friendly environmental conditions this season—along with the federal government cuts and policy chaos —have experts worried about the accuracy of forecasts and the resulting safety of communities. Scientific American asked several forecasters and hurricane researchers what they were most concerned about this year. Warm oceans may mean a busy hurricane season On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. Seasonal forecasts—including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's— put the odds in favor of having more storms than average this season, which will last until November 30. NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms, meaning those of tropical storm strength (with winds of 39 to 74 miles per hour) or higher. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes (with winds of more than 74 mph). And among those hurricanes, three to five are expected to reach major hurricane status—meaning they will have winds that will fall within Category 3 (those of 111 to 129 mph) or a stronger category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The expectations of an active season arise from a combination of a favorable atmospheric environment and abundant ocean heat to fuel storms. For one thing, there's no El Niño in place right now to influence winds in a way that tends to shred storms apart, says Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, whose team releases its own seasonal forecast each year. And waters in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm right now, providing ample fuel for the convection that drives tropical cyclones. 'Over 60 percent of the Gulf is at record or near-record warmth for the time of year, and waters east of Florida and around the Bahamas are as warm as we've seen them for the start of any hurricane season in the satellite era,' says Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 News in Miami. Warm ocean water in these areas can cause storms to rapidly intensify right before landfall, giving communities less time to prepare for the onslaught. This is a major concern for Jill Trepanier, a hurricane researcher at Louisiana State University. 'That is just a devastating situation when it occurs,' she says. It's a situation that has played out many times in recent years, including with Hurricanes Beryl and Milton last season. 'The sticky heat of the Gulf is a worrisome trend that's undoubtedly fueling the spate of big hurricane hits along the Gulf Coast over the past decade or so,' Lowry says. 'This is consistent with recent research that suggests the Gulf has seen a significant increase over the past 42 years in the number of days where it can support high-end hurricanes.' Because of that abundant hurricane fuel, 'I would not be surprised if we see early-season activity well ahead of the peak' of activity in September, says Marshall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia. Several experts noted that this year's conditions have some slight differences from the most recent seasons. For one, 'the waters of the deep tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean—often a bellwether for overall hurricane season activity—are the coolest we've seen them to start a hurricane season since 2021,' Lowry says. But, he adds, they are 'still plenty warm ... and forecast to remain so, which should favor above-average activity.' Though the overall message is that this will be a busier-than-normal season, it is not predicted to be quite as busy as those of the past few years. Klotzbach is worried that could lead to complacency. 'My biggest concern is that, because the seasonal forecasts are a bit less aggressive than last year..., people may tend to let their guard down,' he says. Communities are still recovering Inevitably, each time a new hurricane season begins, some communities are still reeling from storms from the previous year—and often even further back in time. This year 'places in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas are still recovering from Helene, Milton and Debby,' Shepherd says, citing three of the worst storms of the 2024 season. A National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report released last year warned that the Gulf Coast in particular risked being in 'perpetual disaster recovery' mode. The report noted that seven hurricanes struck the region in 2020 and 2021 alone. It's entirely possible that some of the communities pummeled in recent years could face hurricane peril again this year. 'With projections of average to above-average activity, all it takes is one storm to compound an already bad situation for many people,' Marshall says. NWS and FEMA cuts Piled atop these concerns is the situation within the federal government, with substantial budget and staffing cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 'It remains to be seen what the impacts of reduced staffing across relevant NOAA offices and agencies will be,' says Brian McNoldy, a tropical storm researcher at the University of Miami. 'But any loss of expertise, data collection capabilities and around-the-clock monitoring is troubling during critical, high-impact situations.' Though the National Hurricane Center (NHC) monitors the development of tropical storms and hurricanes and produces the main forecasts, local NWS offices still play a crucial role in providing more localized warnings about storm surge, flooding and winds. Many offices in hurricane-prone areas are understaffed, says Jeff Masters, a writer at Yale Climate Connections and a former Hurricane Hunter at NOAA. Among those, the NWS's Houston and Miami offices are suffering the largest staff shortages. The NWS has asked staff from other offices to move into some of these open slots. Lowry and Masters also point out that the cuts have reduced the number of weather balloons launches. Balloon data are crucial for understanding the larger atmospheric patterns that determine where a hurricane will go—and who might need to evacuate or take other precautions. There is one positive note: 'I was very pleased to see the Hurricane Hunters reinstated,' Trepanier says, referring to three of the meteorologists who fly specialized, equipment-laden planes directly into storms to gather data that significantly improve forecasts. 'Though it isn't enough to offset the concern, it is a move in a good direction.' James Franklin, former chief of the NHC's Hurricane Specialist Unit, says he is concerned about trainings for emergency managers that were canceled earlier this year Their absence could leave areas less prepared and less able to know what decisions to make based on forecasts. 'When training has to be cut down…, it just makes those kinds of mistakes on the emergency management side more likely to occur,' he says. Finally, another big worry is simply the government's ability to respond with help for victims when a storm hits. Masters' biggest worry is that FEMA won't 'be capable of managing a major disaster right now.' Reports by CNN and other news outlets have cited internal FEMA memos that report the loss of 30 percent of full-time staff. 'I wrote the plan FEMA uses to respond to hurricanes,' says Lowry, a former employee of both the NHC and FEMA, 'and it's hard to imagine the agency will be able to meet its mission-critical functions this season with such depleted staffing and without a fully revised plan.'
Boston Globe
5 days ago
- Climate
- Boston Globe
Right on cue, the first tropical storm of the season could be named as early as today
Advertisement Mexico can expect gusty winds with heavy rain by early next week, but the mainland United States should only see a few showers from leftover moisture at best. The tropical system will likely track north toward the west coast of Mexico. Each line represents a model forecast track of the storm. Boston Globe The first Pacific Ocean storm is usually named on June 10, but the trend over the past two-and-a-half decades shows otherwise, making a May storm more expected than surprising. 'In the past 25 years (2000-2024), 25 Eastern North Pacific named storms have formed in May,' said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at Colorado State University. 'So getting storm formations around this time of year in the eastern North Pacific is pretty common.' I mean, just take a look at how sea-surface temperatures have fared over the past week just south of Mexico. The brown shaded areas below show sea-surface temperatures of 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher. Tropical storms and hurricanes only need sea-surface temperatures of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit to develop and thrive. Advertisement Sea surface temperatures across the Eastern Tropical Pacific over the past seven days. Legend in Celsius. WeatherModels Fun fact: The word 'Pacific' came from Magellan, the famous explorer who named the ocean as such because he experienced its calm waters during travel. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season is not as dramatically peaked as the Atlantic, meaning more storms form earlier in the season, with a less dramatic peak compared to how the Atlantic hurricane season typically unfolds. Typical Eastern Pacific tropical storm and hurricane activity for an average tropical season. NOAA Just to compare with the average Atlantic hurricane season, take a look at how steep the increase in storm activity rises late in the season versus the steadier Eastern Pacific season above. The average Atlantic hurricane season in terms of storms per date. NOAA The Atlantic hurricane season begins Sunday, June 1, and NOAA is forecasting another active season with 13 to 19 named storms and 6 to 10 hurricanes, of which three to five major hurricanes are expected to spin up. Ken Mahan can be reached at
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Meteorologists make unexpected discovery while observing Atlantic Ocean: 'It's a significant difference'
With 2025's hurricane season just around the corner, meteorologists tracking the Atlantic Ocean are seeing an unexpected development. According to reporting by USA Today, a patch of the eastern Atlantic isn't warming at the same rate, which could have important implications for hurricane activity in the summer. "It's a significant difference," the article stated. Scientists closely monitor the Atlantic's "main development region," a key area between western Africa and Central America where most hurricanes form. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a surface temperature of 80 degrees Fahrenheit or more is needed to create a tropical cyclone. Rising ocean temperatures caused by human activity create favorable conditions for more frequent and severe hurricanes. This year, the ocean surface temperature is about 2 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than last year's record-breaking temperature. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, told USA Today: "Thankfully, sea-surface temperature anomalies are WAY cooler than they were last year at this time. They were downright scary in late April of 2024." Experts have cautioned that while this year's temperatures are below last year's, they are still above average, per The Weather Channel, and last month was actually the fourth-warmest April on record in the Northern Hemisphere and the second-warmest April on record globally. Colorado State is projecting above-average activity for 2025, with a forecast of 17 storms and nine hurricanes. The unusual cooling in the main development region may bode well for 2025's hurricane season, but ocean temperatures are still higher than average. Rising global temperatures heighten the severity of natural disasters, acting like "steroids for weather." The effects of a warmer Atlantic are felt worldwide, impacting crucial sea ice levels in the Arctic. A loss of sea ice compounds the problems of warming ocean temperatures and disrupts the food web of many species that rely on it. In the short term, for those who live in affected areas, preventative measures can help reduce the harm done. For example, NOAA advises identifying dangers to your home and property before the season begins. Thinking further ahead, collective efforts can cool the planet and, therefore, the ocean's temperature. Measures such as making sustainable home improvements and installing rooftop solar panels not only help the planet but also save money. Online tools such as the one provided by EnergySage offer a good starting point for getting the best deal. Do you think your city has good air quality? Definitely Somewhat Depends on the time of year Not at all Click your choice to see results and speak your mind. Join our free newsletter for good news and useful tips, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Buresh Blog: The heat is on!... Pet's paws & the heat... NOAA hurricane forecast... Safe homes
To become a part of the First Alert Neighborhood weather station network - scan below &/or click * here *: Summer is essentially here! Jacksonville averages 82 90-degree days per year, & we're well on our way. As of Thu., May 22, Jacksonville has officially had 16 90-degree days. Last year we had 102 90-degree days. The peak of our summer heat is June through September with our hottest avg. high temp. - 92 degrees - from July 3rd through August 9th. The hottest day of the year on average - going back to the late 19th century - is 98 degrees. So far this year the hottest day is May 16th at 97 degrees. A reminder about the heat & pavement & your pets: NOAA has issued their seasonal hurricane forecast. Like Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State U, the forecast is for an above average season. One of the primary expected driving forces for an active season is the continued above average sea surface temps. In the end, of course, just how severe the season is or is not (or at least how it will be remembered) will come down to where storms make landfall & how strong the storms are at landfall. As we head into the hurricane season... How strong is your home? From FLASH, the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes: 'How Strong Is Your Home?' is a research-driven scale as a dynamic solution for assessing and improving residential resilience to natural disasters. Developed through years of insight into building codes, home construction practices, and public sentiment, the tool gives users a personalized resilience rating—and a pathway to safer homes. The Strong Homes Scale is an interactive, location-specific tool. By entering a home address, users receive a customized resilience rating based on local building codes, disaster risk levels (earthquake, flood, hurricane, tornado, wildfire, and winter storm), and their home's construction features when it was built. The FLASH website is * here * - highly recommend!
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
NOAA hurricane forecast for 2025 season announced
Hurricane season 2025 is almost here and now the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a prediction about how bad the season may be. NOAA is releasing their forecast at a news conference on May 22, at 11 a.m. ET. Watch a livestream of the event below. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and continues through November 30. The first storm name will be Andrea. Other top forecasters are predicting an active season. Colorado State University's hurricane forecasting team, led by Phil Klotzbach, predicted 17 total named storms, of which 9 will be hurricanes, in its April forecast. AccuWeather's forecast, which came out in March, calls for 13-18 named storms, of which 7-10 will be hurricanes. The record for most actual named storms in a season is 30, set in 2020. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven of which spin into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020. Though no tropical cyclones have formed in the Atlantic or Pacific so far this year, the National Hurricane Center says a tropical depression could form next week in the eastern Pacific Ocean south of Mexico. It's too soon to say if the system would impact any land areas. Last year, 18 named storms formed, including devastating Hurricanes Helene and Milton. With more than 400 fatalities, 2024 was the nation's deadliest hurricane season since 2005, said National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan. It was also the third-costliest on record, after 2017 and 2005. With a U.S. death toll of at least 241, Helene was the continental United States' deadliest single storm since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when about 1,400 people died. Other deadly storms in 2024 included Hurricanes Beryl and Milton, each of which killed over 40 people in the United States. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season 2025 forecast from NOAA announced
