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USA Today
5 hours ago
- Climate
- USA Today
See why the 2025 hurricane season is off to a slow start — how long will it stay quiet?
The hurricane season has gotten off to a slow start, but this doesn't always mean the hurricane season will be less dangerous overall. The 2025 season is still expected to have 13 to 19 named storms, and six to 10 of those will become hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The agency's website underscores the importance of being prepared regardless of the hurricane season forecast. When do hurricanes typically form? The official Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30, according to the NOAA. The agency's website shows that 97% of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time, and August, September and October see the majority of storms that result in major damage in the United States. More: National Hurricane Center watching another potential storm off Southeast coast Unable to view our graphics? Click here to see them. Since 1851, only 7% of tropical storms in the Atlantic have come in July. According to the NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, that is insignificant compared with the percentage of named storms that have formed through the busiest hurricane season months of August (22%), September (35%) and October (21%). In other words, on average, one named storm forms in July on an annual basis, according to The Weather Channel. How many storms reach land each year? Over the past 30 years, from 1991 to 2020, an average of 14 storms each year developed, with three reaching at least Category 3 wind intensity and seven turning into hurricanes. According to NOAA statistics, one to two of those hurricanes typically reach land in the United States, according to the Weather Channel. The number of storms that make landfall varies considerably each year, according to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. Here's a look at storms that have made landfall since 2020: It's important to remember that hurricane activity can fluctuate year to year, and even a slightly above-average season can lead to significant effects on coastal regions, according to Colorado State University experts on seasonal hurricane forecasts. On average, the first Atlantic named storm forms on June 20, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the atmospheric science department at Colorado State University. Klotzbach is among the seasonal hurricane outlook experts who predicted a busier-than-average season. Tropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the season, formed in the Central Atlantic on June 20 but lasted only 12 hours. Historically, July is a quieter month for hurricanes because it's fairly early in the season, but that's not always the case: 2024's Category 5 Hurricane Beryl showed us that there can be significant impact from July storms. What's causing the lull in named storms? These conditions are the main causes of a slow start for the Atlantic hurricane season, according to Accuweather: Scientists from Colorado State University recently released an updated forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season on July 9, and there is a morsel of good news: "We have decreased our forecast slightly," meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said. Instead of nine hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin in 2025, the new forecast calls for eight. An average season sees seven. More: Storm Tracker: National Hurricane Center watching disturbance in Atlantic SOURCES National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Prediction Center, The Weather Channel, Accuweather and USA TODAY research CONTRIBUTING Gabe Hauari, Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice/USA TODAY
USA Today
13-07-2025
- Climate
- USA Today
Tropical trouble could be brewing around Florida, hurricane forecasters say
A broad area of low pressure could develop offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Regardless of development, the area of disturbed weather is expected to be a rainmaker in the region. USA TODAY Another potential tropical disturbance popped up on the National Hurricane Center's tracking chart on Saturday, July 12. For those who watch every potential storm closely, this initial map looks a lot like the first one that popped up for Tropical Storm Chantal. The possible development area swoops from the Atlantic to the Gulf across much of Florida, but this time the system is moving toward the Gulf, and the advisory includes the southern shores of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. A broad area of low pressure could develop sometime within the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast, the hurricane center said on the afternoon of July 12. Environmental conditions could become "marginally conducive" for the gradual development of a system within five to seven days as it moves westward across Florida. The chances of development are low, only 20%. If for some reason, a tropical storm does develop, the next name on the list this season is Dexter. "Should development take place on the Atlantic side of Florida, it may once again drift northward toward the U.S. coast," Accuweather said on July 11. The more plausible option is development on the Gulf side, which could be steered westward along the northern Gulf Coast, the weather forecast company stated. Regardless of development, the area of disturbed weather is expected to be a rainmaker in the region. Heavy rain is possible over parts of Florida and the Southeast coast through mid-to-late week, the center stated in the July 12 advisory. Tropical weather watchers say windshear over the Caribbean and dry air and Saharan dust over the Atlantic have helped keep this hurricane season from getting too busy so far. Still Chantal's development put the 2025 hurricane season about a month ahead of schedule. Typically the third Atlantic named storm doesn't form until August 3, according to Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, who leads its seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season each year. The season was forecast to see above normal activity, however the latest forecast from Klotzbach and his team slightly reduced the number of possible storms. What happened to Tropical Storm Chantal? Chantal formed off the Southeast U.S. coast on July 4, then moved over the Carolinas. Heavy rains flooded parts of North Carolina, claiming six lives. The Haw River crested at 32.5 feet, only a third of a foot away from its all-time high, set after Hurricane Fran in 1996, according to the weather service office in Raleigh. Chantal also spawned four EF-1 tornadoes in North Carolina, one each in Mebane, Snow Camp, southern Pittsboro and at the Raleigh Executive Jetport. The highest rainfall totals were reported in Chatham County, where 11.92 inches were reported in Moncure and Pittsboro, where the weather service collected five other rainfall reports of between 10 and 11.5 inches.
USA Today
12-07-2025
- Climate
- USA Today
Tropical trouble could be brewing around Florida, hurricane forecasters say
A broad area of low pressure could develop sometime within the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Another potential tropical disturbance popped up on the National Hurricane Center's tracking chart on Saturday, July 12. For those who watch every potential storm closely, this initial map looks a lot like the first one that popped up for Tropical Storm Chantal. The possible development area swoops from the Atlantic to the Gulf across much of Florida, but this time the system is moving toward the Gulf, and the advisory includes the southern shores of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. A broad area of low pressure could develop sometime within the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast, the hurricane center said on the afternoon of July 12. Environmental conditions could become "marginally conducive" for the gradual development of a system within five to seven days as it moves westward across Florida. The chances of development are low, only 20%. If for some reason, a tropical storm does develop, the next name on the list this season is Dexter. "Should development take place on the Atlantic side of Florida, it may once again drift northward toward the U.S. coast," Accuweather said on July 11. The more plausible option is development on the Gulf side, which could be steered westward along the northern Gulf Coast, the weather forecast company stated. Regardless of development, the area of disturbed weather is expected to be a rainmaker in the region. Heavy rain is possible over parts of Florida and the Southeast coast through mid-to-late week, the center stated in the July 12 advisory. Tropical weather watchers say windshear over the Caribbean and dry air and Saharan dust over the Atlantic have helped keep this hurricane season from getting too busy so far. Still Chantal's development put the 2025 hurricane season about a month ahead of schedule. Typically the third Atlantic named storm doesn't form until August 3, according to Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, who leads its seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season each year. The season was forecast to see above normal activity, however the latest forecast from Klotzbach and his team slightly reduced the number of possible storms. What happened to Tropical Storm Chantal? Chantal formed off the Southeast U.S. coast on July 4, then moved over the Carolinas. Heavy rains flooded parts of North Carolina, claiming six lives. Chantal victims: At least six deaths were reported in flooding in North Carolina The Haw River crested at 32.5 feet, only a third of a foot away from its all-time high, set after Hurricane Fran in 1996, according to the weather service office in Raleigh. Chantal also spawned four EF-1 tornadoes in North Carolina, one each in Mebane, Snow Camp, southern Pittsboro and at the Raleigh Executive Jetport. The highest rainfall totals were reported in Chatham County, where 11.92 inches were reported in Moncure and Pittsboro, where the weather service collected five other rainfall reports of between 10 and 11.5 inches. Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@ or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update.
Top experts from Colorado State University released an updated forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season on July 9, and there is a morsel of good news: "We have decreased our forecast slightly," said meteorologist Phil Klotzbach about the updated prediction. Instead of nine hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin in 2025, the new forecast calls for 8. An average season sees seven. "The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear," the forecast said. In this context, forecasters are referring to wind shear, upper-level winds that act to tear developing storms apart. "High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons," the forecast said. But don't let your guard down: Overall, the team still says a total of 16 named tropical storms will form in 2025 (this includes the three that have already formed: Andrea, Barry and Chantal). Additionally, forecasters wrote, "we anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline." The forecast includes a state-by-state look at hurricane risk. Those calculations predict the chances of a storm passing within 50 miles of the state. Per usual, the highest risk is in Florida, which faces a 90% chance of being impacted by a tropical storm and a 62% chance of being impacted by a hurricane. Will your state be impacted by a hurricane? Here's what to know about the risk in 2025, according to the new outlook: In Alabama, there's a 64% storm chance and a 32% hurricane chance. There is also a 10% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Alabama, according to CSU experts. There is a 25% storm chance and 9% hurricane chance in Connecticut. More: Tropical Storm Chantal weakens to a depression as it moves across Carolinas There is a 26% storm chance and 7% hurricane chance in Delaware. In Florida, there is a 90% storm chance and a 62% hurricane chance. There is also a 33% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state. There is a 69% storm chance and a 35% hurricane chance in Georgia. In Louisiana, there is a 72% storm chance and a 43% hurricane chance. There is also a 17% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Louisiana. In Maine, there is a 25% storm chance and 8% hurricane chance. In Maryland, there is a 35% storm chance and 13% hurricane chance. There is a 37% storm chance and a 17% hurricane chance in Massachusetts. There is a 59% storm chance and a 32% hurricane chance in Mississippi. In New Hampshire, there is a 21% storm chance and 6% hurricane chance. In New Jersey, there is a 26% storm chance and 8% hurricane chance. There is a 30% storm chance and an 11% hurricane chance in New York. There is a 74% storm chance and a 43% hurricane chance in North Carolina. There is a 23% storm chance and 9% hurricane chance in Rhode Island. In South Carolina, there is a 63% storm chance and a 33% hurricane chance. In Texas, there is a 67% storm chance and 41% hurricane chance, as well as an 18% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state. There is a 51% storm chance and a 23% hurricane chance in Virginia. Hurricane season officially began June 1. The six-month season lasts until Nov. 30. Colorado State researchers said there's a 48% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline. The average, based on records from 1880 to 2020, is 43%. A major hurricane has wind speeds of at least 111 mph. The chances for a landfall are greater along the Gulf Coast (31%) than they are along the East Coast (25%). This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Top hurricane outlook lists new state-by-state hurricane risk
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Global climate troublemaker La Niña may arrive later in 2025
Early signs of a possible La Niña fall and winter are emerging in some climate models, federal forecasters announced July 10. La Niña is a part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region. It is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring. It's the opposite to the more well-known El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean water is at least 0.9 degree warmer than average for three months. La Niña and El Niño typically have minimal impact on summer weather in the U.S., other than some effects on hurricanes. Winter is the one season when they have the most impact. A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the Southern states, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The Southeast and mid-Atlantic also tend to see higher-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. Meanwhile, New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see lower-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said. More: Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update. The typical impacts of a La Niña winter in North America include a wetter, colder winter in parts of the northern United States and a drier, warmer winter in parts of the southern United States. La Niña is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When the water cools at least 0.9 degree Fahrenheit below average for three straight months, a La Niña is declared. "While this may sound like a small change in temperature, it can cause significant changes in the weather patterns around the globe," AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said. In general, La Niña conditions favor hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America. This is because during La Niña, the strong storm-killing winds known as wind shear relax across the Atlantic basin, allowing hurricanes to more easily develop. Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, in a July 10 e-mail to USA TODAY, explained that "while Caribbean shear has been quite strong in June and is likely to remain strong throughout most of July, the potential trend more towards cool neutral (or even weak La Niña) later in the season may result in lower shear in the Caribbean later in the season." The lower the wind shear, the greater the chance for hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, as this map shows: But the status of ENSO is only part of the hurricane puzzle: Twenty years ago, in 2005, for instance, ENSO-neutral conditions also occurred in the Pacific ‒ and that year spawned the infamously destructive hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the National Weather Service said in an online report. Right now, it appears to be a toss-up. While so-called "ENSO-neutral" conditions are most likely through the late summer 2025, thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said July 10. In fact, one climate model used by the CPC – the North American Multi-Model Ensemble – "favors the onset of La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere fall," the CPC said in its monthly update. Japan's weather bureau also announced July 10 that there is a 40% chance of La Niña emerging in the fall. Overall, the CPC said the chances for La Niña remain comparable to the likelihood of ENSO-neutral continuing. ENSO-neutral means neither El Niño (warmer waters) nor La Niña (cooler waters) conditions are dominant in the Pacific. While El Niño and La Niña have expected impacts on global seasonal weather and climate, what about neutral? "ENSO-neutral doesn't mean we expect upcoming seasonal rain, snow, and temperature to be close to average," writes Emily Becker in the CPCs' ENSO blog. "Rather, during neutral, we don't have the same predictive information that El Niño and La Niña's atmospheric changes provide, making upcoming patterns harder to predict very far in advance." Contributing: Reuters This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Global climate troublemaker La Niña may be brewing
