Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update.
Instead of nine hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin in 2025, the new forecast calls for 8. An average season sees seven.
"The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear," the forecast said. In this context, forecasters are referring to wind shear, upper-level winds that act to tear developing storms apart.
"High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons," the forecast said.
But don't let your guard down: Overall, the team still says a total of 16 named tropical storms will form in 2025 (this includes the three that have already formed: Andrea, Barry and Chantal). Additionally, forecasters wrote, "we anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline."
The forecast includes a state-by-state look at hurricane risk. Those calculations predict the chances of a storm passing within 50 miles of the state.
Per usual, the highest risk is in Florida, which faces a 90% chance of being impacted by a tropical storm and a 62% chance of being impacted by a hurricane.
Will your state be impacted by a hurricane? Here's what to know about the risk in 2025, according to the new outlook:
In Alabama, there's a 64% storm chance and a 32% hurricane chance. There is also a 10% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Alabama, according to CSU experts.
There is a 25% storm chance and 9% hurricane chance in Connecticut.
More: Tropical Storm Chantal weakens to a depression as it moves across Carolinas
There is a 26% storm chance and 7% hurricane chance in Delaware.
In Florida, there is a 90% storm chance and a 62% hurricane chance. There is also a 33% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state.
There is a 69% storm chance and a 35% hurricane chance in Georgia.
In Louisiana, there is a 72% storm chance and a 43% hurricane chance. There is also a 17% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Louisiana.
In Maine, there is a 25% storm chance and 8% hurricane chance.
In Maryland, there is a 35% storm chance and 13% hurricane chance.
There is a 37% storm chance and a 17% hurricane chance in Massachusetts.
There is a 59% storm chance and a 32% hurricane chance in Mississippi.
In New Hampshire, there is a 21% storm chance and 6% hurricane chance.
In New Jersey, there is a 26% storm chance and 8% hurricane chance.
There is a 30% storm chance and an 11% hurricane chance in New York.
There is a 74% storm chance and a 43% hurricane chance in North Carolina.
There is a 23% storm chance and 9% hurricane chance in Rhode Island.
In South Carolina, there is a 63% storm chance and a 33% hurricane chance.
In Texas, there is a 67% storm chance and 41% hurricane chance, as well as an 18% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state.
There is a 51% storm chance and a 23% hurricane chance in Virginia.
Hurricane season officially began June 1. The six-month season lasts until Nov. 30.
Colorado State researchers said there's a 48% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline. The average, based on records from 1880 to 2020, is 43%.
A major hurricane has wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
The chances for a landfall are greater along the Gulf Coast (31%) than they are along the East Coast (25%).
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Top hurricane outlook lists new state-by-state hurricane risk
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