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France 24
18-06-2025
- Politics
- France 24
What Iran's reprisals against Israel reveal of its ballistic missile capabilities
Tehran reportedly planned to rain 1,000 missiles down on Israel in response to the launch of military strikes on Iran. So far, Iran has managed to fire around 350 missiles, according to estimates published by the Israeli media citing the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). 'As of now, Iran's counterattacks don't seem to be very effective … I think the missile threat turns out to be, to some extent, overstated,' says Pieter Wezeman, a researcher with the Arms Transfers Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Before Israel launched its offensive, Iran's missile arsenal was considered one of its principal sources of deterrence. '[Iran's deterrence] was very much based on two legs. One leg – which had been significantly, let's say, disturbed or destroyed by Israel – was the so-called proxies: Hezbollah, Hamas and their ability to fire missiles and do other things. And the other significant leg was the missile force,' says Wezeman, who has written about the threat posed by missile proliferation throughout the Middle East. Estimates vary, but 'Israeli intelligence – the best information on this subject – had put the number [of Iranian missiles] at 3,000 or so before the war', says Frank Ledwidge, a specialist in military capabilities and strategy at the University of Portsmouth in the UK. This impressive number of missiles would mean that Iran had 'the largest stockpile in the Middle East', Australian public broadcaster ABC News reported, citing the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence. But this new war with Israel has shown a gap between theory and practice. First, the Israeli army targeted the infrastructure necessary for Iran to fire its missiles right from the start of hostilities. 'I would say that [Iran's arsenal] has now significantly been reduced – at least 50 percent,' Ledwidge says. Second, not all of Iran's missiles have the capacity to reach Israel, which is more than 1,000km from Iran. This means that only the longest-range missiles can strike the Jewish state, according to an analysis by Dutch researcher Ralph Savelsberg for the BreakingDefense website on June 13. Variants of Soviet-era Scud missiles developed by Iran are able to reach targets at a maximum range of less than 700km. Among the devices capable of hitting Israel are those "based on collaborations with North Korea, such as the Ghadr and Khorramshahr [medium-range ballistic missiles], but also advanced solid-propellant ballistic missiles,' Savelsberg writes. These are the missiles that are most dangerous for Israel and its famous air defense systems. But the nec plus ultra of Iran's ballistic arsenal does not represent the majority of missiles available. "Most are older-generation [missiles]. We're talking a few hundred of the modern ones," says Ledwidge. 'Haj Qassem' and 'Qassem Bashir' It's difficult to assess the extent to which Iran has deployed its most effective missiles so far. One thing is certain: Iran has been deploying both drones and missiles in tandem to increase their effects. "The drones essentially serve to distract Israeli defences to improve the missiles' chances of getting through," says Ledwige. 'It's a bit more complex than decoys, but [the drones] essentially soak up Israeli air defense capability,' Ledwidge says. Among the missiles that hit their targets, "those that struck Tel Aviv on Monday were likely the most modern versions of Iranian hypersonic missiles", Ledwige says. These include the "Fattah" models, which are among the fastest, as well as weapons that Tehran had apparently never used before. Iran has claimed since Sunday to have fired two relatively recent models – the Haj Qassem and Qassem Bashir missiles – that are capable of defeating the world's best air defense systems, including Israeli missile shields and the US-made Patriot system. The former was developed in 2021 and named in honour of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Revolutionary Guards' elite Al-Quds Force who was assassinated in a 2020 US drone strike. The Qassem Bashir was unveiled in May. These new missiles offer more advantages: their speed – they can reach Mach 5, or more than 6,000 km/h – and the fact that they are powered by solid, rather than liquid, propellant. Having engines running on solid fuel "makes them easier to transport, hide, and faster to deploy', Wezeman says, because the missiles don't need to be fuelled up just before firing. Theory vs. Practice These new missiles offer another advantage. 'The hypersonic missiles (which go beyond speeds of Mach 5) of course have a manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle," says Ledwidge. In other words, they are harder to intercept, in that they can adjust their trajectory – either because they are remotely controlled, or because they are partially autonomous, meaning they can change course just before reaching the target co-ordinates based on the defensive measures deployed to counter them, Wezeman explained. In theory, then, this type of missile could indeed defeat any anti-aircraft system – but everything depends on execution. "As of now, Iran's counterattacks don't seem to be very effective, or as effective as they said. Israeli defenses have intercepted most of them," Wezeman says. Analysts are sceptical that Iran is saving its most powerful missiles for later in the conflict in the hopes of not further escalating tensions. 'Iran is not making a strong impression [militarily] at the moment," says Wezeman. "It cannot afford to look weak. So we could assume they are using their best missiles." Ledwidge says that, strategically, saving the best for last makes little sense. "it's better to use your best weapons at the beginning – before Israel destroys them – since they are priority targets," he says.
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First Post
05-05-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Tension after Pahalgam: India's air defence leapfrogs Pakistan's China-fed teeth
Amid rising tensions, India is building a next-generation air defence architecture that surpasses Pakistan's China-dependent systems in range, resilience and indigenous innovation read more Following the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22 and relentless military drills and small arms exchanges for 10 consecutive nights along the Line of Control (LoC), tensions have heightened significantly between India and Pakistan. This has fuelled speculation over whether a full-scale war is on the horizon between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. There is still no clarity on what form such a conflict might take — whether it would involve ground troops, artillery, mechanised infantry, naval forces, airpower or a combination of all. Regardless of the scope, air defence remains a vital component of any military strategy, essential for protecting both human and material assets. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Amid these evolving geopolitical challenges, India's air defence strategy is undergoing a significant transformation. With adversaries like China and Pakistan advancing their offensive capabilities, India is reassessing how to safeguard its airspace best. While there was once considerable interest in Israel's Iron Dome — widely regarded as a highly effective air defence system — its recent vulnerabilities in Israel's simultaneous conflicts with the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah have raised concerns about its applicability to India's threat environment. Previously considered nearly impenetrable, the Iron Dome came under renewed scrutiny after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, during which approximately 5,000 rockets were launched in just 20 minutes, overwhelming the system and exposing its limitations, according to Newsweek. Looking at the Iron Dome: Interest and rejection India's interest in the Iron Dome dates back to 2010, according to Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), who shared with Newsweek that India was among several countries evaluating the system. However, the interest never materialised into a purchase. Other countries like Romania, Cyprus and Azerbaijan also considered buying the Iron Dome, but actual deliveries were either unconfirmed or never occurred. One key reason for India's hesitation was its already ongoing development of indigenous systems like the Prithvi Air Defence (PAD), Advanced Air Defence (AAD) and Akash missile systems. As The Eurasian Times noted, India was inclined towards self-reliant solutions that could address the country's distinct threat landscape—a sentiment echoed by Indian defence officials who emphasised the mismatch between Israel's needs and India's. Air Marshal (Retd) Anil Chopra, head of the Centre for Air Power Studies, told The Print that while he had once supported acquiring an Iron Dome-like system, it no longer made sense with India inducting the S-400 missile system and evaluating the US-made NASAMS-II for the protection of critical infrastructure like the national capital. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Building the indigenous shield India's multi-layered air defence doctrine now rests on a blend of indigenous and imported technologies, aiming to address a wide spectrum of aerial threats—from low-flying drones to ballistic missiles. The PAD and AAD systems are among the foundational elements which provide interception at high and low altitudes, respectively. The Akash system, a medium-range surface-to-air missile platform, is another key component, capable of engaging multiple targets at various altitudes. In parallel, India has made strategic imports like the S-400 Triumf system from Russia. Signed in October 2018, the deal faced resistance from the United States, but India proceeded regardless. As reported by The Eurasian Times, the S-400 significantly boosts India's interception capabilities with a tracking range of 600 kilometres and the ability to engage 80 targets simultaneously, including ballistic and cruise missiles, drones and fighter jets up to 400 kilometres away. Additionally, India has also expressed interest in acquiring the US-made NASAMS-II (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System), although no formal procurement has occurred yet. Enter Project Kusha The most ambitious component of India's air defence future is Project Kusha—a DRDO-led initiative to develop a long-range air defence system with capabilities mirroring and even surpassing the Iron Dome. This system will be capable of intercepting stealth aircraft, drones, cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions at ranges up to 350 kilometres. Project Kusha aims to incorporate multiple layers of interception through different missile types designed to hit targets at 150, 250 and 350 kilometres respectively. It will also include long-range surveillance and fire control radars and offer high kill probabilities: not less than 80 per cent for single launches and 90% for salvo launches. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The system is designed to target high-speed threats with low radar cross-sections and can engage fighter-sized targets at 250 kilometres and larger aircraft like AWACS at 350 kilometres. With funding of Rs 21,700 crore already approved, this project marks a significant step in India's pursuit of an 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat' or self-reliant defence industry. According to DRDO sources quoted in Firstpost, the Project Kusha system will fill a critical capability gap by providing strategic and tactical cover to vulnerable zones, especially important given the missile deployments observed across the Indo-Tibetan border by China. The Pakistan factor No analysis of India's air defence environment is complete without understanding the systems fielded by Pakistan. According to the Indian Defence Research Wing, although Pakistan has made strides in modernising its air defences, its systems still lag behind India's in terms of technological sophistication, integration and reach. The backbone of Pakistan's high-altitude defence is the Chinese-supplied HQ-9P and HQ-9BE systems with ranges of 100 to 200 kilometres and interception capabilities up to Mach 14. As detailed in the Pakistan Army's SAM Systems brief, these systems primarily protect strategic zones like Karachi and Rawalpindi and are believed to use HT-233 phased-array radars. Pakistan's medium-range capabilities are built around the LY-80 and LY-80E systems, which offer coverage between 40 and 70 kilometres and target speeds of up to Mach 2.5. These systems, although effective against subsonic threats, are reportedly inadequate against India's supersonic BrahMos missile, which travels at Mach 3+. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD For short-range threats, Pakistan relies on a mix of Chinese and older Western systems like the FM-90 (15 km), French Crotale and MANPADS such as the Anza series and RBS-70 NG. However, these systems have limited radar coverage, outdated command guidance and lack the multi-target engagement capability of systems like India's Barak-8. While Pakistan's air defence architecture is improving, especially with the induction of HQ-9P and LY-80EV variants, it remains heavily reliant on Chinese technology and lacks the indigenous depth that India is now investing in through DRDO and Project Kusha. Strategic lessons from Iron Dome for India Despite its limitations, Israel's Iron Dome has proven effective in intercepting thousands of incoming threats and it still maintains a claimed 90 per cent effectiveness rate under normal operational conditions, as reported by The Eurasian Times. The system comprises three to four launchers and a radar, protecting areas of up to 60 square miles. However, its high cost—with each Tamir interceptor costing approximately $20,000 to destroy much cheaper rockets—has been a point of criticism. India has taken valuable cues from these operational lessons. Unlike Israel, which operates in a smaller geographical area with largely asymmetrical threats, India must deal with a wide array of conventional and strategic challenges across a massive territory. This has led to a preference for scalable, multi-tiered solutions with a focus on both cost-effectiveness and technological sophistication. In this context, DRDO's push to develop multiple types of interceptors for varying threat levels coupled with the integration of indigenous radars and sensors reflects a lesson well learned from Israel's Iron Dome experience. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Building a self-reliant, multi-layered shield India is crafting a uniquely tailored air defence architecture that draws inspiration from global systems like the Iron Dome but is firmly rooted in its own strategic imperatives. Through programmes like Project Kusha, integration of the S-400 and a robust portfolio of indigenous missile systems, India is creating a defence ecosystem that can meet the challenges posed by both conventional military threats and emerging asymmetric warfare. India's focus on multi-layered, high-performance and indigenously developed systems reflects a forward-looking approach to national security. The era of Iron Dome-inspired thinking is here, but in India, it comes with a distinct identity and strategic vision.
