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Forbes
30-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Will Q2 Results Move Floor & Decor Stock Up?
POLAND - 2025/02/01: In this photo illustration, the Floor and Decor company logo is seen displayed ... More on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Piotr Swat/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Floor & Decor Holdings' stock (NYSE: FND), a specialized retailer of hard surface flooring, is set to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Thursday, July 31, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of 56 cents per share alongside $1.2 billion in revenue. This would indicate a 6% increase in earnings year-over-year, and a 7% rise in sales compared to the previous year's figures of 53 cents per share and $1.13 billion in revenue. Historically, FND stock has exhibited a tendency to outperform following earnings announcements, having increased 60% of the time, with a median rise of 2.3% over one day and a maximum observed increase of 14%. With only 250 locations averaging between 50,000 and 80,000 square feet, Floor & Decor has established a $4.5 billion business. These large, high-volume stores create significant operating leverage—resulting in $301 million in operating profit and $205 million in net income within the past year. The company anticipates a long-term goal of about 500 stores, indicating it aims for high efficiency and high impact in its operations. With an $8.6 billion market cap, investors are already betting on the scalability of this model's profitability as the number of stores increases. For event-driven traders, historical patterns might provide an advantage, whether by positioning in advance of earnings or responding to movements after the release. That said, if you are looking for upside with lower volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks. Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Returns Additional details for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized alongside the statistics in the table below. FND 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return Correlation Among 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively less risky strategy (although not effective if the correlation is low) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and carry out the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D reveal the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves 'long' for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns. FND Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors.
Forbes
29-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Sarepta: SRPT Stock To $40?
POLAND - 2025/01/25: In this photo illustration, the Sarepta Therapeutics company logo is seen ... More displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Piotr Swat/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Sarepta Therapeutics is trading around $19 in extended hours following the FDA's decision to remove the pause on Elevidys, marking a critical turning point for the beleaguered biotech. This regulatory relief, combined with several other compelling catalysts, creates a pathway for the stock to potentially double from current levels to around $40 after its dramatic fall from levels of $170. Now, if you are looking for an upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception. On a separate note, see – QuantumScape: QS Stock To $0? Structural Cost Improvements Drive Profitability The company's aggressive restructuring plan, including 500 job cuts and program discontinuations, generates over $400 million in annual cost savings by 2026. This dramatic expense reduction transforms Sarepta's financial profile from a cash-burning operation to a potentially profitable entity. With Elevidys generating substantial revenues despite current restrictions, the leaner cost structure could deliver significant margin expansion once regulatory issues stabilize. FDA Pause Removal Unlocks Revenue Potential The FDA's decision to remove the pause on Elevidys represents the most significant positive catalyst for Sarepta's recovery. This regulatory relief immediately restores access to the full patient population and removes the overhang that has pressured the stock. With Elevidys generating over 40% of Sarepta's total revenues, the resumption of unrestricted commercial use could quickly restore investor confidence and drive substantial revenue growth in the coming quarters. Duchenne Franchise Stability Beyond Elevidys, Sarepta maintains a diversified Duchenne portfolio that continues generating steady revenues. This foundation provides cash flow stability while the company addresses gene therapy challenges. The established market position in rare disease treatments offers defensive characteristics that could support valuation recovery. Potential Acquisition Target Sarepta's current distressed valuation makes it an attractive acquisition candidate for larger pharmaceutical companies seeking gene therapy capabilities. The company's expertise, intellectual property, and market-leading position in Duchenne treatments could command significant premiums in a takeover scenario. Risks That Could Derail Doubling Potential Several critical risks could prevent Sarepta from achieving double-digit returns and potentially drive further declines. The ongoing FDA investigation into patient deaths, while concerning, appears to have been addressed sufficiently for the agency to lift restrictions. However, any new safety signals could trigger renewed regulatory scrutiny. Financial sustainability concerns persist despite restructuring efforts. The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 63% with $1.3 billion in obligations. Extended regulatory delays could strain cash reserves and force additional dilutive financing or asset sales. Competition from alternative Duchenne treatments could erode market share, particularly if safety concerns create opportunities for rival therapies to gain regulatory and physician preference. The extreme volatility demonstrated by Sarepta's stock movements from $172 to recent lows shows how quickly investor sentiment can shift. Any negative developments could trigger disproportionate selling pressure, making the doubling thesis dependent on near-perfect execution across multiple fronts. The Verdict Sarepta's path to doubling hinges primarily on the FDA's pause removal creating sustained revenue recovery for Elevidys, supported by the company's aggressive cost restructuring that could deliver significant margin expansion. That said, investors must weigh this against the inherent volatility and regulatory risks that have defined the stock's recent performance. The company's transformation into a leaner, more focused organization positions it well for recovery, but success requires flawless execution in maintaining regulatory compliance while maximizing the commercial potential of its core Duchenne franchise. There always remains a meaningful risk when investing in a single, or just a handful, of stocks. Consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
29-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Will LyondellBasell Industries Stock Move On Earnings?
POLAND - 2024/12/17: In this photo illustration, the LyondellBasell company logo is seen displayed ... More on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Piotr Swat/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE:LYB) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Friday, August 1, 2025. The company's current market capitalization stands at $21 Bil. Over the past twelve months, revenue reached $38 Bil, and it achieved operational profitability with $2.2 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.1 Bil. Although much will hinge on how the results compare to consensus and expectations, grasping historical trends might enhance your chances if you are a trader focused on events. There are two approaches to achieve this: understanding the historical probabilities and positioning yourself before the earnings announcement, or analyzing the correlation between immediate and mid-term returns following earnings and adjusting your position accordingly after the earnings are released. That being said, if you are looking for upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having surpassed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks LyondellBasell Industries' Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional information regarding 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is outlined along with the statistics in the table below. LYB 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively less risky approach (although not useful if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and make the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the strongest correlation, a trader can take a 'long' position for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns. LYB Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings? Occasionally, the performance of peers can affect post-earnings stock reactions. In fact, the market pricing may begin before the earnings announcements. Below is some historical data on the recent post-earnings performance of LyondellBasell Industries stock in comparison to the stock performance of peers that published earnings just prior to LyondellBasell Industries. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also denote post-earnings one-day (1D) returns. LYB Correlation With Peer Earnings Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (which includes all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors. On a separate note, if you seek upside with a smoother experience than an individual stock like LyondellBasell Industries, take a look at the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its launch.
Forbes
17-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
What Can Drive Vale Stock 2X?
POLAND - 2024/12/08: In this photo illustration, the Vale company logo is seen displayed on a ... More smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Piotr Swat/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) If you have been keeping an eye on Vale (NYSE:VALE), you might be curious—what would be necessary for this Brazilian mining giant's stock to double from its current levels? This is a reasonable question, particularly given the widespread global discussions about critical minerals and infrastructure growth. Vale's primary business revolves around iron ore. When prices are robust, Vale generates substantial profits. Should iron ore prices increase to $150/ton or beyond (currently sitting around $100), it could significantly enhance Vale's revenue and profitability. This scenario could unfold if China boosts its construction and steel output, global supply becomes constrained, or if there's an unexpected surge in demand from countries like India. More incoming capital translates to stronger earnings—and typically leads to a higher stock price. Although VALE stock has experienced volatility, if you are looking for potential growth with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – it has outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns over 91% since its launch. Moreover, Vale is heavily focusing on nickel and copper, two vital metals for electric vehicles, batteries, and clean energy technologies. If the demand for these metals experiences considerable growth, Vale's base metals division could emerge as a key player. So, can Vale truly achieve a 2x increase? Yes, this would likely require a mix of stronger commodity prices (for iron ore, nickel, and copper) and increasing demand driven by global infrastructure and energy initiatives. However, there are certainly risks involved—issues with China's economy, declining metal prices, or additional regulatory challenges in Brazil—but if Vale manages its strategy effectively, this stock might very well double in the coming years. Not satisfied with the unpredictable nature of VALE stock? The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, comprising 30 stocks, has a history of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last four years. What accounts for this? As a collective, HQ Portfolio stocks yielded stronger returns with reduced risk compared to the benchmark index; a smoother journey, as demonstrated in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
15-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Buy Or Fear Wheaton Precious Metals Stock?
POLAND - 2024/12/17: In this photo illustration, the Wheaton Precious Metals company logo is seen ... More displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Piotr Swat/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM) stock appears appealing but unpredictable – making it a difficult choice to acquire at its present price of approximately $76. We believe there is little reason for worry regarding WPM stock, which makes it appealing yet highly susceptible to negative events due to its exceedingly high valuation. We reach our assessment by analyzing the current valuation of WPM stock compared to its operational performance over recent years, as well as its current and historical financial status. Our evaluation of Wheaton Precious Metals based on key parameters of Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience indicates that the company has a very robust operational performance and financial health, as explained below. Nevertheless, if you are looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio provides an alternative – having surpassed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its launch. Based on what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, WPM stock seems very costly in relation to the wider market. • Wheaton Precious Metals holds a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 30.5 compared to a figure of 2.8 for the S&P 500 • Moreover, the company's price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio stands at 39.1 versus 17.6 for the S&P 500 • Additionally, it has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 56.0 compared to the benchmark's 24.5 Wheaton Precious Metals' Revenues have experienced notable growth in recent years. • Wheaton Precious Metals has witnessed its top line grow at an average rate of 2.0% over the last 3 years (compared to an increase of 6.2% for the S&P 500) • Its revenues have increased by 29.7% from $1.0 Bil to $1.3 Bil in the last 12 months (in contrast to a growth of 5.3% for the S&P 500) • Additionally, its quarterly revenues rose by 38.1% to $381 Mil in the most recent quarter from $313 Mil a year prior (versus a 4.9% improvement for the S&P 500) Wheaton Precious Metals' profit margins are significantly higher than most firms within the Trefis coverage universe. • Wheaton Precious Metals' Operating Income over the last four quarters reached $669 Mil, which reflects a remarkably high Operating Margin of 55.0% (compared to 13.1% for the S&P 500) • Wheaton Precious Metals' Operating Cash Flow (OCF) during this period was $950 Mil, indicating a notably high OCF Margin of 78.1% (compared to 15.7% for the S&P 500) • For the last four-quarter timeframe, Wheaton Precious Metals' Net Income was $609 Mil – suggesting a very high Net Income Margin of 50.1% (compared to 11.3% for the S&P 500) Wheaton Precious Metals' balance sheet appears solid. • Wheaton Precious Metals' Debt stood at $5.7 Mil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its market capitalization is $36 Bil (as of 5/13/2025). This indicates a very strong Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.0% (compared to 21.5% for the S&P 500). [Note: A low Debt-to-Equity Ratio is preferable] • Cash (including cash equivalents) accounts for $818 Mil of the $7.4 Bil in Total Assets for Wheaton Precious Metals. This results in a moderate Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 9.4% (compared to 15.0% for the S&P 500) WPM stock has proven to be more resilient than the benchmark S&P 500 index during certain recent downturns. While investors hope for a gentle landing by the U.S. economy, how severe could things become if another recession strikes? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash illustrates how key stocks performed during and following the last six market crashes. • WPM stock declined 43.8% from a high of $51.71 on 20 April 2022 to $29.08 on 26 September 2022, compared to a peak-to-trough drop of 25.4% for the S&P 500 • The stock completely rebounded to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 April 2023 • Since then, the stock has risen to a high of $85.77 on 11 May 2025 and currently trades around $76 • WPM stock fell 28.7% from a peak of $33.30 on 24 February 2020 to $23.74 on 19 March 2020, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500 • The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 April 2020 • WPM stock decreased 86.7% from a peak of $19.50 on 14 March 2008 to $2.59 on 20 November 2008, in contrast to a peak-to-trough drop of 56.8% for the S&P 500 • The stock successfully returned to its pre-Crisis peak by 30 April 2010 In conclusion, Wheaton Precious Metals' performance across the parameters outlined above is as follows: • Growth: Very Strong • Profitability: Extremely Strong • Financial Stability: Very Strong • Downturn Resilience: Strong • Overall: Very Strong Therefore, despite its exceedingly high valuation, the stock seems appealing but unpredictable, which reinforces our conclusion that WPM is a difficult stock to acquire. Not entirely content with the volatile nature of WPM stock? The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, comprising 30 stocks, has a history of consistently outperforming the S&P 500 over the past four years. What accounts for this? In aggregate, HQ Portfolio stocks have yielded superior returns with reduced risk compared to the benchmark index; it has proven to be less of a roller-coaster ride, as demonstrated by HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
