Will Q2 Results Move Floor & Decor Stock Up?
Floor & Decor Holdings' stock (NYSE: FND), a specialized retailer of hard surface flooring, is set to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Thursday, July 31, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of 56 cents per share alongside $1.2 billion in revenue. This would indicate a 6% increase in earnings year-over-year, and a 7% rise in sales compared to the previous year's figures of 53 cents per share and $1.13 billion in revenue. Historically, FND stock has exhibited a tendency to outperform following earnings announcements, having increased 60% of the time, with a median rise of 2.3% over one day and a maximum observed increase of 14%.
With only 250 locations averaging between 50,000 and 80,000 square feet, Floor & Decor has established a $4.5 billion business. These large, high-volume stores create significant operating leverage—resulting in $301 million in operating profit and $205 million in net income within the past year. The company anticipates a long-term goal of about 500 stores, indicating it aims for high efficiency and high impact in its operations. With an $8.6 billion market cap, investors are already betting on the scalability of this model's profitability as the number of stores increases.
For event-driven traders, historical patterns might provide an advantage, whether by positioning in advance of earnings or responding to movements after the release. That said, if you are looking for upside with lower volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Returns
Additional details for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized alongside the statistics in the table below.
FND 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Among 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (although not effective if the correlation is low) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and carry out the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D reveal the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves 'long' for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.
FND Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors.
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