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The Diplomat
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Diplomat
China's Political Calendar as a Guide to Leadership Succession
Discussion about personnel issues within Chinese politics has been rampant of late. In Japan, the media has been reporting on President Xi Jinping's supposed health issues and has even suggested that he may step down 2027, with Ding Xuexiang, a member of the Standing Committee, as his successor. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has meanwhile been rocked by leadership instability over the past few years, accompanied by rumors of a rift between Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Zhang Youxia, his number two. Ultimately, it is impossible for outside observers to confirm these rumors. Many rely on media outlets and YouTube pundits to come up with what is, after all, mere speculation. There are other sources, however. For instance, we can gain some insight into what is currently happening by consulting China's political calendar. The most important years ahead for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are 2027, when the 21st Party Congress convenes, 2032, when the 22nd Party Congress convenes, and 2035, the year Xi himself has set to achieve 'socialist modernization.' The white paper on 'National Security in a New Era,' released in May 2025, outlines construction plans for Chinese national security over the next decade and has made 2035 the target for completion for the national security system, further underscoring the importance of that year. Another, somewhat less important year is 2029, which will mark the 80th anniversary of the founding of the communist nation. Born in 1953, Xi will be 74 in 2027, 79 in 2032, and 82 in 2035. At present, Xi's administration is in the third year of its third term and will enter its fourth year this autumn. With speculation swirling about his health, Xi has yet to name a successor, and so most expect him to embark on a fourth term in 2027. That term would end in 2032, but given that his administration has emphasized 2035 as a key milestone, there is reason to believe that he plans to remain in power through that year. In 2035, Xi will be 82, the age at which Mao Zedong died, making it entirely possible that he will remain in office into the mid-2030s. However, by his fifth term beginning in 2032, he will surely need to have a clear successor in place. That means that even if the individual is not one of the top seven (members of the Politburo Standing Committee) during Xi's fourth term, a successor is likely to at least be selected from the current 24 members of the Politburo Standing Committee and brought in beginning in 2027. Of course, there is always the possibility that this won't happen until sometime after 2027, but that has not stopped predictions in China that Xi will in fact soon begin the task of choosing who will follow him. In fact, Xi's succession is one of the biggest concerns in Chinese politics, and the recent speculation about his health and his grip on power will surely intensify as 2027 approaches. The Chinese public naturally has a strong interest in the transition of power. In considering this transition of power, it's worth noting that apart from Ding Xuexiang (born 1962), all of the seven Standing Committee members were born in the 1950s, and will thus be in their mid-70s by the time Xi's fourth term ends in 2032. Even Ding Xuexiang will be 70 by then. The fact that he is the youngest of the top seven is one of the main reasons why he is often mentioned as a possible successor to Xi Jinping. Nor are any of the current 24-member Politburo particularly young, with the youngest four born in 1964. It is worth noting here that Chinese born in the late 1960s would have been university students during the Tiananmen Square protests and massacre in 1989. Looking elsewhere, Zhou Zuyi, Secretary of the Fujian Provincial Communist Party Committee, was born in 1965, with all other provincial and municipal secretaries having been born before 1964. Thus, since Xi Jinping came to power, the CCP leadership has aged rapidly. This can be seen as reflecting the aging of Chinese society itself, but one might also conclude that Xi's administration has an aversion to people born in the late 1960s, who would have come of age at a time when Western culture was having a strong influence on Chinese society. There is even speculation that this generation may be bypassed entirely in the succession process. To counter that, we might note that some deputy provincial and municipal secretaries were born in the late 1960s, with Xiong Maoping a prime example, having been appointed deputy secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Communist Party Committee in July 2025. Yet many officials born in the late 1960s have not moved up the party ranks, and increasingly the focus is now on the growing number of appointments of deputy secretaries who were born in the 1970s. The list includes Zhuge Yujie (Hubei Province), Shi Guanghui (Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region), Zhu Zhongming (Shanghai), Yang Jinbai (Hainan Province), Liu Xiaotao (Jiangsu Province), Guo Ningning (Fujian Province), and Lu Dongliang (Shanxi Province). Some of these figures are expected to be made members of the Politburo or even Standing Committee by 2027. In the meantime, the PLA's leadership is even older, with Xi's childhood friend and ally, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of CCP, born in 1950. Zhang is three years older than Xi, and will turn 77 in 2027. Having made the unusual decision to stay on at the age of 72 in 2022, many expect him to retire in 2027. Who will be his successor? This is an immediate concern for the PLA, where a number of high-ranking officials have been appointed, only to then be purged. That turnover has left it unclear if a successor will be determined by 2027. Its personnel issues notwithstanding, the PLA has been able to maintain its expansionist path under its top two leaders, Xi and Zhang, despite rumors about their health. Still, the instability within the military leadership shows how difficult it will be for the Central Committee of CCP to identify a successor for Xi. Time is the great equalizer. Moving forward, the most significant challenge for Chinese politics will be in the realm of personnel. For outside observers, insight may well come from monitoring developments in the context of the political calendar discussed here. KAWASHIMA Shin is a professor at the University of Tokyo.
India.com
03-07-2025
- Politics
- India.com
Is China president Xi Jinping ill? Meet 5 men who could replace Xi in China's Communist Party
(File) Amid rumors surrounding the health of Chinese President Xi Jinping, sparked by his unexplained absence from public view in recent times, speculations are rife that a major change may be coming soon within the political leadership of China. While Xi Jinping is believed to be firmly in charge of affairs at this point, there are other high-ranking leaders within the Communist Party of China (CCP), that potentially replace him. Let us take five most powerful CCP leaders who could replace Xi Jinping. Who could succeed Xi Jinping? Li Qiang The current Premier of China, Li Qiang is a long-time ally of Xi Jinping. Qiang had stood in for the Chinese President at several high-profile global events, including the G20 summit held in India. The Chinese Premier, who ascended to the top post in 2023, is the second-most powerful figure in the government, and heads the State Council which oversees China's economy. Li Qiang is also expected to participate in the upcoming BRICS summit in the absence of Xi Jinping. Ding Xuexiang The First Vice Premier and Politburo Standing Committee Member, Ding Xuexiang is one of the closest aides of Xi Jinping, having previously served as his chief of staff. Ding's rapid rise through the ranks without holding provincial leadership roles, is seen as a sign of trust he holds with Xi. Wang Huning The current Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Wang Huning is known as the chief theorist of the CCP. Wang has served under three presidents, and his influence over ideology is believed to have shaped the thoughts of Xi Jinping, making him a front runner in the race. However, Huning is seen as more of a Kingmaker, rather than a contender for the throne, as he lacks administrative experience. Zhao Leji Zhao Leji, a senior member of the Politburo Standing Committee, is known for his work in the anti-corruption movement. Currently, Zhao is the Chairman of the National People's Congress, and his role in the country's national legislature gives him visibility and authority, particularly over constitutional and legal matters. Li Hongzhong Li Hongzhong is a senior member of the CCP who rose through the party's regional ranks to become a key figure on the national scene. Hongzhong lacks global visibility, which many experts believe to be a good thing as most of China's rivals, or allies for that matter, would not know what to expect if he succeeds Xi Jinping. What happened to Xi Jinping? Rumors have begun circulating that Chinese President Xi Jinping might not be in good health after he suddenly vanished from the public eye in recent months. China's state-run media has not offered any explanation for his absence, and it is believed that Jinping, for the first time since assuming office, is likely to miss the upcoming BRICS Summit in Brazil, adding more credence to the rumors.
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China and US are at each other's throats on tariffs, and neither is backing down
American companies looking to sell into the huge Chinese market have just taken a big hit. A 34% price increase on all US goods entering the country will knock some out of here altogether. This is especially bad for US agricultural producers. They already had 10 or 15% tariffs on their produce entering China, in response to the last round of Trump tariffs. Now, if you add 34% on top of that, it is probably pricing most of them out. Beijing doesn't seem too worried about looking elsewhere for more chicken, pork and sorghum and – at the same time – it knows it is whacking the US president right in his heartland. Globally, all of this has analysts worried. The problem is that supply chains have become so international, components in any given product could be sourced from all corners of the planet. So, when the ripples of economic distress start spreading from country to country, it could have potentially catastrophic consequences for all trade. Live updates: Markets and reaction to Trump tariffs Full list: See all Trump tariffs by country Watch: Why Trump's tariffs aren't really reciprocal Most concerning is that the world's two greatest economies are now at each other's throats with no indication that either is preparing to backdown. Just take the timing of Beijing's announcement. The Chinese government revealed its promised "resolute countermeasures" to Trump's latest tariffs in a written statement from the finance ministry at 18:00 local time (10:00 GMT), on a Friday night, which is also a public holiday. The timing could mean several things. 1. It wanted to somewhat bury the news at home, so as to not spook people too much. 2. It simply made the announcement as soon as its own calibrations had been finalised. 3. Beijing had given up on the hope of using the small window it had before Trump's 54% tariffs on Chinese goods took effect next week to do a deal. So, the government just decided to let it rip. If it is the last of these reasons, that is pretty bleak news for the global economy because it could mean that a settlement between the world's superpowers could be harder to reach than many had expected. Another indicator of President Xi's attitude towards President Trump's tariffs can be seen by what he was doing when they were announced. Elsewhere, governments may have been glued to the television, hoping to avoid the worst from Washington. Not here. Xi and the six other members of the Politburo Standing Committee were out planting trees to draw attention to the need to counter deforestation. It presented a kind of calmness in the face of Trump, giving off a vibe along the lines of: do your best Washington, this is China and we're not interested in your nonsense. There is still room for the US and China to cut some sort of deal, but the rhetoric does not seem to be heading that way. Another possible path is for China to increase its trade with other countries – including western nations once seen as close allies of the US – and for these new routes to essentially cut America out of the loop. Again, this would hurt not only US companies but also US consumers who will already be paying higher prices thanks to Trump's tariffs. What are tariffs and why is Trump using them? Are Trump's Asia tariffs a 'full-frontal assault' on China?
BBC News
04-04-2025
- Business
- BBC News
China and US are at each other's throats on tariffs, and neither is backing down
American companies looking to sell into the huge Chinese market have just taken a big hit. A 34% price increase on all US goods entering the country will knock some out of here is especially bad for US agricultural producers. They already had 10 or 15% tariffs on their produce entering China, in response to the last round of Trump tariffs. Now, if you add 34% on top of that, it is probably pricing most of them doesn't seem too worried about looking elsewhere for more chicken, pork and sorghum and – at the same time – it knows it is whacking the US president right in his all of this has analysts problem is that supply chains have become so international, components in any given product could be sourced from all corners of the when the ripples of economic distress start spreading from country to country, it could have potentially catastrophic consequences for all trade. Live updates: Markets and reaction to Trump tariffsFull list: See all Trump tariffs by countryWatch: Why Trump's tariffs aren't really reciprocal Most concerning is that the world's two greatest economies are now at each other's throats with no indication that either is preparing to take the timing of Beijing's Chinese government revealed its promised "resolute countermeasures" to Trump's latest tariffs in a written statement from the finance ministry at 18:00 local time (10:00 GMT), on a Friday night, which is also a public timing could mean several things.1. It wanted to somewhat bury the news at home, so as to not spook people too much.2. It simply made the announcement as soon as its own calibrations had been finalised.3. Beijing had given up on the hope of using the small window it had before Trump's 54% tariffs on Chinese goods took effect next week to do a deal. So, the government just decided to let it it is the last of these reasons, that is pretty bleak news for the global economy because it could mean that a settlement between the world's superpowers could be harder to reach than many had expected. Another indicator of President Xi's attitude towards President Trump's tariffs can be seen by what he was doing when they were governments may have been glued to the television, hoping to avoid the worst from and the six other members of the Politburo Standing Committee were out planting trees to draw attention to the need to counter presented a kind of calmness in the face of Trump, giving off a vibe along the lines of: do you're best Washington, this is China and we're not interested in your nonsense. There is still room for the US and China to cut some sort of deal, but the rhetoric does not seem to be heading that possible path is for China to increase its trade with other countries – including western nations once seen as close allies of the US – and for these new routes to essentially cut America out of the this would hurt not only US companies but also US consumers who will already be paying higher prices thanks to Trump's tariffs.
South China Morning Post
27-03-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
As Beijing hails untapped Asian partnerships at Boao Forum, Hong Kong vows to do more
In the face of trade protectionism and rising global uncertainties, China and the entirety of Asia can find ways to work together, one of China's high-ranking vice-premiers said, while reiterating support for foreign investors 'regardless of external changes'. Advertisement Speaking on Thursday at the Boao Forum for Asia, Ding Xuexiang, the sixth-ranked member of China's Politburo Standing Committee, reaffirmed Beijing's commitment to propping up the economy with more proactive macro policies and the fostering of emerging industries. 'An important lesson behind Asia's dynamism and growth potential is its openness,' Ding said. 'We should … firmly oppose trade and investment protectionism and make full use of cooperation mechanisms in regions such as East Asia and the Asia-Pacific.' And in line with Beijing's broadly stepped up efforts to help private firms, including by collecting back-owned payments , Ding again stressed the importance of further supporting private firms. Ding also reaffirmed that China was 'confident' in reaching its annual growth target of 'around 5 per cent', adding it would 'undoubtedly make new contributions to the progress of Asia and the world'. Advertisement Citing Ding's speech, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu said that 'the more complex and uncertain the external environment, the more steadfast Hong Kong must be in moving forward'.
