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Chinese toymaker Pop Mart shares slide despite strong earnings forecast
Chinese toymaker Pop Mart shares slide despite strong earnings forecast

CNBC

time16-07-2025

  • Business
  • CNBC

Chinese toymaker Pop Mart shares slide despite strong earnings forecast

Shares in Pop Mart International tumbled over 6% on Wednesday after the toymaker issued a bullish first-half earnings forecast. The Beijing-headquartered company is behind the global craze around Labubu, a toothy, pointy-eared monster-like character. The toymaker sells its dolls in a blind box to buyers who don't know what character is inside until they open it, with prices ranging from about 59 yuan to 5,999 yuan. In a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange on Tuesday, Pop Mart said it expects at least a 350% increase in profit and at least a 200% increase in revenue for the first six months of 2025 from the same period last year. The negative stock reaction may be a reflection of investors' conservative outlook on Pop Mart's sales growth, Jeff Zhang, an equity analyst at Morningstar, told CNBC on Wednesday. "Despite stellar earnings growth in H1, it may have peaked and will likely see slowdown starting in H2," he added, saying it may have prompted many investors to take profits. Zhang maintained his view that Pop Mart's shares have been "overvalued," as the high level of uncertainty over the popularity of its major intellectual properties was not fully priced in. In the filing Tuesday, the company attributed its robust profit forecast to the greater global recognition of its brand and intellectual properties — referring to signature toy characters such as Labubu, Molly and Crybaby — and diversified product portfolios, as well as a growing portion of overseas sales. It also benefited from a substantial increase in profits driven by the economies of scale, cost optimization and tighter expense controls, the company said. Buoyed by the runaway success of Labubu figurines, Pop Mart's Hong Kong-listed shares have been on tear this year. Despite the latest tumble Wednesday, its share prices have nearly tripled year to date, trading at 247 Hong Kong dollars ($31.5) at 11:43 p.m. ET. The stock suffered a brief setback last month after an editorial from Chinese state media took aim at businesses enticing young children to spend excessively on "blind cards" and "mystery boxes," a model central to Pop Mart's appeal. Investors have largely shrugged off fears of a regulatory crackdown on Pop Mart, which counts Gen Zers and millennials, rather than young children, as main consumer demographic. But despite the latest pullback in share prices, many investment banks held on to their bullish calls for Pop Mart to remain one of the hottest consumer brands in China this year. In the first quarter of this year, the toymaker's revenue rose 170% from a year earlier, buoyed by a nearly 480% surge in overseas markets and about 100% revenue growth at home. The latest profit forecast was "slightly above the capital market's already-high expectation," analysts at Nomura Bank said in a note Tuesday, underscoring the "continued acceleration of sales growth." The investment bank lifted its target price for Pop Mart to 330 Hong Kong dollars from 291 Hong Kong dollars, keeping the stock as its "preferred pick in the China consumer space." Pop Mart's soaring popularity has been a stark contrast to the broader economic downturn in China which has led consumers to become more frugal and scale back on spending. A human-sized Labubu was sold for $150,000 at an auction in Beijing last month. "When optimism about long-term financial prospects fades, people shift from investing in the future, [buying] homes, cars, to seeking momentary emotional rewards," said Ivy Yang, founder of Wavelet Strategy, New York-based consultancy. "Each collector [is] projecting their own mood or story onto the toy. This is why Pop Mart differs from Sanrio or Miniso," Yang added, referring to the Japanese toymaker behind Hello Kitty and a Chinese retailer for consumer goods such as cosmetics, stationery and toys featuring IP design.

China slammed ‘blind box' addiction — but that shouldn't faze Labubu-maker Pop Mart
China slammed ‘blind box' addiction — but that shouldn't faze Labubu-maker Pop Mart

West Australian

time06-07-2025

  • Business
  • West Australian

China slammed ‘blind box' addiction — but that shouldn't faze Labubu-maker Pop Mart

Beijing may have warned against 'blind box' toys, but analysts are betting that Pop Mart International — the company behind Labubu dolls — will remain one of China's hottest consumer brands this year. In an editorial on June 20, China's state media People's Daily called for tighter regulations around selling blind-boxed toys and trading cards to children under the age of eight, such as verifying buyers' age upon payment and requiring parental approval in online transactions. Without naming Beijing-headquartered Pop Mart, the paper slammed businesses for enticing young children to spend heavily on 'blind cards' and 'mystery boxes' — a model central to Pop Mart's appeal. The company often sells its dolls in a blind box to buyers who don't know what character is inside until they open it. Sequentially, Pop Mart's share price plunged 12.1 per cent for the week ending June 20, marking its steepest fall since late 2023, denting a massive rally that sent its shares over 600 per cent higher over the last 12 months. Its stock has regained some ground since then, hovering near the all-time high levels hit in mid-June. The state media commentary on blind-box toys is reminiscent of Beijing's regulations on video games in recent years, which were aimed at curbing gaming addiction and unsupervised in-game purchases by minors. That led to restrictions on how long minors can play video games, as part of a sector-wide crackdown that wiped out billions of dollars in value from China's gaming giants. 'The magnitude of Chinese policymakers' impact [on businesses] is way higher than that in other countries,' said Alfredo Montufar-Helu, senior advisor for the China Center at The Conference Board, a think tank. That said, analysts view the fears of regulatory headwinds as overblown as Gen Zers and millennials, rather than young children, are Pop Mart's main consumer demographic. Pop Mart will largely be insulated from intensifying regulatory scrutiny as it targets younger adults with adequate purchasing power, Montufar-Helu said. Local peers that focus on minors, however, will likely be 'heavily impacted,' said Jeff Zhang, equity analyst at Morningstar. There's another factor that could cushion the regulatory impact on Pop Mart. It's increasingly driven by overseas sales, especially in Southeast Asia, he said. And the share of its China revenue will fall to about 30 per cent in the next 10 years, he projected. Pop Mart's overseas sales in 2024 have already surpassed the company's overall sales in 2021. Pop Mart derived about 61 per cent of its revenue from mainland China in 2024, according to its annual report, drawing the rest mainly from Southeast Asia and East Asia, as well as Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Its sales in North America grew more than 550 per cent last year from a year earlier, and the company has 90 physical stores and vending machine spots across the United States. HSBC Bank expects Pop Mart's overseas revenue in 2025 to more than double to 14 billion yuan ($3b) from 2024 on strong sales momentum from 'Labubu 3.0,' released in April. This figure would account for more than half of its entire projected revenue this year, up from 39 per cent in 2024. That just builds on the meteoric growth that the company enjoyed last year, when revenue more than doubled to 13.04 billion ($2.8b) yuan, while profits nearly tripled. The rapidly growing popularity of the ugly-cute toys contrasts with otherwise sluggish consumption in the country, as many become increasingly frugal in the face of an economic slowdown. Younger Chinese consumers want to build toy collections for the sense of 'affordable exclusivity' it gives them, said Montufar-Helu, as it can be satisfying to be 'one of the lucky ones to get the special edition' at a reasonable price. Pop Mart sells blind-boxed toys with prices ranging from about 59 yuan ($12.50) to 5999 yuan ($1277). Collectors often spend hundreds or thousands of yuan, and rare models can fetch six-figure sums at second hand auctions. 'The very point about blind boxes is the unknown, the uncertainty. There is some inherent curiosity about what someone's gonna get. That brings about a certain degree of excitement when people are buying blind boxes,' said Chris Wong, senior clinical psychologist at Singapore-based Resilienz Clinic. 'When that uncertainty is resolved,' he said, referring to when the blind box is opened, '[that] usually comes with certain pleasant emotions, like fun, surprise and delight. That also plays a part in why people just keep on doing that.' Seeing others share their own experiences of blind boxes on social media also amplifies such a response from the brain, as it fulfils the human need for social connection, the psychologist said. But although the Labubu frenzy shows no sign of slowing, Pop Mart still faces other challenges that may dent its momentum, analysts said. 'While Pop Mart's major IPs, such as Labubu have received some global popularity over the past two years . . . there is no guarantee that what is popular now will stay relevant over the next five to ten years,' Mr Zhang said. Other risks include uncertainty around the company's ability to meet shifting demand and scalping, which could drive genuine consumers out of the market, HSBC analysts said. Pop Mart issued a rare apology last month after a surge in orders caused delivery delays, with consumers complaining online about not having receiving orders weeks after placing them. Counterfeit toys may also dampen Pop Mart's reputation at home and abroad, analysts said, despite the government's efforts in stepping up scrutiny at export checkpoints. Customs at the Ningbo port, one of the country's busiest ports, seized over a million counterfeit Labubu dolls in the first six months of this year, over intellectual property violations and smuggling concerns. To keep its brand fresh, Pop Mart has taken a page from Disney's playbook, doubling down on expanding its IP portfolio, launching pop-up stores, a film studio and a theme park. Pop Mart's founder Wang Ning once hinted at his aspiration to turn the company into 'China's Disney.' But those initiatives don't come cheap. 'Animation production requires a strong storytelling team that can consistently deliver compelling narratives,' said Echo Gong, an independent Shanghai-based retail consumption consultant. She added that managing a theme park also demands an entirely different skillset and far greater investment than simply selling toys.

China slammed 'blind box' addiction — but that shouldn't faze Labubu-maker Pop Mart
China slammed 'blind box' addiction — but that shouldn't faze Labubu-maker Pop Mart

CNBC

time04-07-2025

  • Business
  • CNBC

China slammed 'blind box' addiction — but that shouldn't faze Labubu-maker Pop Mart

Beijing may have warned against "blind box" toys, but analysts are betting that Pop Mart International — the company behind Labubu dolls — will remain one of China's hottest consumer brands this year. In an editorial on June 20, China's state media People's Daily called for tighter regulations around selling blind-boxed toys and trading cards to children under the age of eight, such as verifying buyers' age upon payment and requiring parental approval in online transactions. Without naming Beijing-headquartered Pop Mart, the paper slammed businesses for enticing young children to spend heavily on "blind cards" and "mystery boxes" — a model central to Pop Mart's appeal. The company often sells its dolls in a blind box to buyers who don't know what character is inside until they open it. Sequentially, Pop Mart's share price plunged 12.1% for the week ending June 20, marking its steepest fall since late 2023, denting a massive rally that sent its shares over 600% higher over the last 12 months. Its stock has regained some ground since then, hovering near the all-time high levels hit in mid-June. The state media commentary on blind-box toys is reminiscent of Beijing's regulations on video games in recent years, which were aimed at curbing gaming addiction and unsupervised in-game purchases by minors. That led to restrictions on how long minors can play video games, as part of a sector-wide crackdown that wiped out billions of dollars in value from China's gaming giants. "The magnitude of Chinese policymakers' impact [on businesses] is way higher than that in other countries," said Alfredo Montufar-Helu, senior advisor for the China Center at The Conference Board, a think tank. That said, analysts view the fears of regulatory headwinds as overblown as Gen Zers and millennials, rather than young children, are Pop Mart's main consumer demographic. Pop Mart will largely be insulated from intensifying regulatory scrutiny as it targets younger adults with adequate purchasing power, Montufar-Helu said. Local peers that focus on minors, however, will likely be "heavily impacted," said Jeff Zhang, equity analyst at Morningstar. There's another factor that could cushion the regulatory impact on Pop Mart. It's increasingly driven by overseas sales, especially in Southeast Asia, Zhang said. And the share of its China revenue will fall to about 30% in the next 10 years, he projected. Pop Mart's overseas sales in 2024 have already surpassed the company's overall sales in 2021. Pop Mart derived about 61% of its revenue from mainland China in 2024, according to its annual report, drawing the rest mainly from Southeast Asia and East Asia, as well as Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Its sales in North America grew more than 550% last year from a year earlier, and the company has 90 physical stores and vending machine spots across the United States. HSBC Bank expects Pop Mart's overseas revenue in 2025 to more than double to 14 billion yuan ($1.95 billion) from 2024 on strong sales momentum from "Labubu 3.0," released in April. This figure would account for more than half of its entire projected revenue this year, up from 39% in 2024. That just builds on the meteoric growth that the company enjoyed last year, when revenue more than doubled to 13.04 billion yuan, while profits nearly tripled. The rapidly growing popularity of the ugly-cute toys contrasts with otherwise sluggish consumption in the country, as many become increasingly frugal in the face of an economic slowdown. Younger Chinese consumers want to build toy collections for the sense of "affordable exclusivity" it gives them, said Montufar-Helu, as it can be satisfying to be "one of the lucky ones to get the special edition" at a reasonable price. Pop Mart sells blind-boxed toys with prices ranging from about 59 yuan to 5,999 yuan. Collectors often spend hundreds or thousands of yuan, and rare models can fetch six-figure sums at secondThe state media commentary on blind-box toys is reminiscent of Beijing's regulations on video games a few years ago,hand auctions. "The very point about blind boxes is the unknown, the uncertainty. There is some inherent curiosity about what someone's gonna get. That brings about a certain degree of excitement when people are buying blind boxes," said Chris Wong, senior clinical psychologist at Singapore-based Resilienz Clinic. "When that uncertainty is resolved," he said, referring to when the blind box is opened, "[that] usually comes with certain pleasant emotions, like fun, surprise and delight. That also plays a part in why people just keep on doing that." Seeing others share their own experiences of blind boxes on social media also amplifies such a response from the brain, as it fulfils the human need for social connection, the psychologist said. But although the Labubu frenzy shows no sign of slowing, Pop Mart still faces other challenges that may dent its momentum, analysts said. "While Pop Mart's major IPs, such as Labubu" have "received some global popularity over the past two years ... there is no guarantee that what is popular now will stay relevant over the next five to ten years," Zhang said. Other risks include uncertainty around the company's ability to meet shifting demand and scalping, which could drive genuine consumers out of the market, HSBC analysts said. Pop Mart issued a rare apology last month after a surge in orders caused delivery delays, with consumers complaining online about not having receiving orders weeks after placing them. Counterfeit toys may also dampen Pop Mart's reputation at home and abroad, analysts said, despite the government's efforts in stepping up scrutiny at export checkpoints. Customs at the Ningbo port, one of the country's busiest ports, seized over a million counterfeit Labubu dolls in the first six months of this year, over intellectual property violations and smuggling concerns. To keep its brand fresh, Pop Mart has taken a page from Disney's playbook, doubling down on expanding its IP portfolio, launching pop-up stores, a film studio and a theme park. Pop Mart's founder Wang Ning once hinted at his aspiration to turn the company into "China's Disney." But those initiatives don't come cheap. "Animation production requires a strong storytelling team that can consistently deliver compelling narratives," said Echo Gong, an independent Shanghai-based retail consumption consultant. She added that managing a theme park also demands an entirely different skillset and far greater investment than simply selling toys.

Delulu Over Labubu? The Market Has Its Say
Delulu Over Labubu? The Market Has Its Say

Bloomberg

time27-06-2025

  • Entertainment
  • Bloomberg

Delulu Over Labubu? The Market Has Its Say

Save This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a dramaturgical dollhouse of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. I've avoided the global Labubu phenomenon for months, even since I saw the ugly creatures pop up on the social media feeds of addled influencers. But now the ever-astute Shuli Ren has taken note of the toy's enormous popularity and profitability— and how that very success betrays a weakness in the business plan of its Beijing-based manufacturer Pop Mart International Group Ltd. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal

A bunny made him a billionaire: Pop Mart's Labubu turned Wang Ning into China's youngest tycoon
A bunny made him a billionaire: Pop Mart's Labubu turned Wang Ning into China's youngest tycoon

Independent Singapore

time23-06-2025

  • Entertainment
  • Independent Singapore

A bunny made him a billionaire: Pop Mart's Labubu turned Wang Ning into China's youngest tycoon

CHINA: In the world of designer items, where a whimsical mind meets commerce, few stories are as astonishing and as pleasantly peculiar as that of Wang Ning and his business, Pop Mart. At age 38, Wang has soared into the exalted ranks of China's top 10 wealthiest individuals, and he owed it to the breakneck fame of a playful, rabbit-like character named Labubu. In the latest Forbes ' billionaire list, Wang now claims an overwhelming net worth of $22.7 billion, making him the 10th richest individual in China. His meteoric rise, according to a recent article published by Punchng , mirrors not only the financial triumph of the Pop Mart International Group but also the cultural sensation that the company has triggered worldwide. From niche to global craze Created by Hong Kong-born artist Kasing Lung, Labubu isn't your archetypal fluffy mascot. With round, enlarged eyes manifesting an 'innocent gaze', shabby fur, and a 'nonchalant brashness,' the vinyl figure has found an improbable fan base extending from Asia to Europe to the U.S. The company's shares, traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, have risen threefold in 2025, now soaring above HK$270 ($34.40), driving Pop Mart's market value to a jaw-dropping HK$365 billion. 'This is more than just a toy—it's a cultural export,' according to Deutsche Bank analyst Jessie Xu in a recent note. 'It's rare for a comic or toy IP to break cultural walls so effectively, appealing to both Asian fans and Western pop culture icons.' Indisputably, Labubu's list of 'devotees' reads like a music holiday roster — Rihanna, Dua Lipa, and Lisa of Blackpink — have all been seen with Pop Mart's iconic figures, bolstering the brand's worldwide desirability and X-factor. Billionaire at play Wang Ning's journey is a masterclass in niche advertising and shrewd brand building. Established in 2010, Pop Mart began as a tiny Beijing store fixated on blind-box novelties — taped-up parcels that make the toy inside a surprise until unlocked. The idea swiftly progressed into a fever of swapping, selling, trading, collecting, and social media sharing, building a 'subculture' that is a lot different from that of streetwear or sneaker culture. Labubu took the company to another level. When the third edition showed up in April, scenarios at a London Pop Mart store looked like Black Friday havoc — fans pushed and shoved to grab the £13.50 to £50 toys, while others resold them online for hundreds. In Beijing, a full-size Labubu recently made 1.08 million yuan ($150,000) at a public sale, fortifying its position as a luxury collectible. Even banks took part in the fun, Ping An Bank offered Labubu dolls as an 'incentive' to new account holders who placed more than 50,000 yuan as a deposit. The promotional stunt was so effective, regulators noticed it and eventually stopped. Investors took note Pop Mart's spectacular upsurge hasn't gone unobserved on Wall Street. Deutsche Bank recently increased its price target for the stock by 52%, and Morgan Stanley followed, speculating on the brand's international growth. Labubu and Pop Mart's route is vastly different from the conventional path to affluence in China, such as real estate, tech, or manufacturing. Instead, Wang Ning proved that pop culture can be just as potent as an engine for progress. Now hobnobbing with giants like ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming, Nongfu Spring's Zhong Shanshan, and Tencent's Ma Huateng, Wang is the newest and youngest member of China's billionaire exclusive. However, unlike his equals, his domain didn't grow through data or drinks, but on a radiant, tiny rabbit with a grunge smile. As hoarders and fans queue for the next release of Labubu, its influence grows further, and one thing is clear — with the kind of global economy at present, quirkiness and wealth are, in reality, closely aligned.

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