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Irish Examiner
16-07-2025
- Business
- Irish Examiner
Agricultural output price index up 20.7% in the 12 months to May
In the 12 months to May of this year, the agricultural output price index rose by 20.7%. In the CSO's (Central Statistics Office) latest report, despite the rise over the past 12 months to May, compared to every month, the output price index dropped by 0.8% in the month since April. The most significant output price increases in the 12 months to May 2025 were in wool, milk and cattle. Wool has experienced an annual increase of 31.9%. However, this figure solely rides on the increase experienced from April to May of this year within the index. The wool output price index remained static at 106.3 for the last 11 months, only to jump to 140.2 in May 2025, contributing to an almost 32% increase. The IFA (Irish Farmers' Association) has said the sudden uptick occurring in May is the result of improved wool demand, with auction prices also up compared to previous months. These higher prices secured by farmers are only returning to them in recent months, in line with normal selling time and payment arrangements in place for some sellers. IFA Sheep Chair Adrian Gallagher said: 'The increase in wool prices is a welcome move in the right direction, but there is still a journey for wool prices to travel to cover the shearing costs and leave a margin for the farmer.' Sheep have also received a 7% drop in the output price index in the 12 months leading up to May of this year. Cattle saw an annual increase of 48% in the output price. Cattle excluding calves increased by 47.5% and calves secured an increase of 123.9% with the output price index sitting at 116.7 in May 2024 and 261.2 in May of this year. Milk has also seen an annual increase of 14.2% in the output price index despite experiencing a 0.8% drop when comparing April and May of this year. Potatoes have received the most significant drop in the output price index, with potatoes (including seeds) dropping by 15.1%. Amongst other crops, cereals (with seeds) experienced an annual drop of 0.2%, vegetables a drop of 1% and 'industrial and forage' an increase of 3.4%. The agricultural input price index rose slightly by 0.1% in the 12 months to May but dropped by 0.2% when compared monthly to April. Commenting on the release, Senior Statistician in the Agriculture Division, Sam Scriven, said: 'Within the Input Price Index, Fertilisers rose by 10.2% while Motor Fuels (-8.0%), and Feeding Stuffs (-2.3%) were lower than in May 2024." Breaking down the fertiliser index further, straight fertilisers experienced the largest annual increase in the input price index, with a jump of 14%. On an annual basis, NPK fertilisers rose by 9.8%, compound fertilisers rose by 9.4%, NP and PK fertilisers rose by 3.8% and 'other' fertilisers experienced an increase of 1%. Veterinary expenses also rose by 4.7% in the 12 months to May. Although the input price for veterinary expenses has risen in the last 12 months, the price index has remained stationary at 120.3 since January. Terms of Trade fell by 0.6% in May 2025 when compared with the previous month and were 20.6% higher when compared with May 2024.
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
New Council of Economic Advisers report finds tariffs not causing inflation
FIRST ON FOX: A new report from the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) found that the prices of imported goods have fallen this year and have dipped faster than overall goods prices since February. The CEA, an agency within the Executive Office of the President, said its findings contradict claims that the Trump administration's tariffs on many countries around the world or fears sparked by the levies would lead to a rise in inflation. The report breaks down the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is an inflation gauge watched closely by the Federal Reserve and financial markets, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is an inflation gauge most commonly used by the public, into imported and domestic components. Trump Announces 25% Tariffs On Japan, South Korea Overall goods prices in the PCE index jumped by 0.4% from December through May, which corresponds to a 1% annualized rate, according to the CEA report. Meanwhile, the imported component of PCE goods prices dropped by 0.1% during that same time period. "CEA's directional findings using this method of analyzing the PCE are consistent across core goods (excluding food and energy), durables (which last for at least three years), and nondurables," the report reads. "The import contribution to inflation includes both the direct impact of imported final goods for consumption and indirect effects of imported intermediate inputs." Read On The Fox Business App The report said similar analysis for the CPI showed that imported goods dipped 0.8% while overall goods prices remained flat. Trump Threatens Additional 10% Tariffs On 'Anti-american' Brics Nations There are several differences between PCE and CPI inflation, such as scope of products included and weighting methodologies, according to the report, which argued that finding a similar pattern for CPI highlights the robustness of the results. The CEA report said it compared the imported subindex to overall prices from December through May to capture the effects of President Donald Trump's policies in his second administration. "The results clearly show the price of imported components declining, starting in March, while overall prices were close to unchanged or increased slightly," the report reads. "Cumulatively, overall PCE prices have increased by about 1.1% since December compared to about 0.2% for PCE import prices. However, those values include pricing for services, which tend to have lower import intensity, so the divergence could be due to stickier services prices." The CEA also acknowledged that its analysis "does not identify the counterfactual in which tariffs are not instituted." "Goods and imported goods prices started to diverge towards the end of 2023, and have continued since," the report says. "Importantly, there is no clear trend break so far this year. This analysis suggests that tariffs have not reduced the disinflationary impulse from imported goods as of May."Original article source: New Council of Economic Advisers report finds tariffs not causing inflation Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Economic Times
27-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
US consumer spending falls unexpectedly in May
AP FILE - A shopping cart filled with groceries sits in an aisle at an Asian grocery store in Rowland Heights, Calif., Thursday, April 3, 2025. U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell in May as the boost from the pre-emptive buying of goods like motor vehicles ahead of tariffs faded, while monthly inflation increases remained moderate. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, dropped 0.1% last month after an unrevised 0.2% gain in April, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending would edge up 0.1%. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, which have led businesses and households to front-run imports and goods purchases to avoid higher prices from duties, have muddled the economic picture. Economists warned it could take time for the tariff-related distortions to wash out of the data. A record goods trade deficit in the first quarter, thanks to a deluge of imports, accounted for much of the 0.5% annualized rate of decline in gross domestic product during that period. Consumer spending also nearly braked last quarter after being propelled by households pulling forward goods purchases. Households also spent less on services last quarter, helping to restrain growth in consumer spending to only a 0.5% pace, the slowest rate since the second quarter of 2020. That data potentially puts spending on a slow growth path in the second quarter. The combination of soft consumer spending and inflation is, however, unlikely to spur the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates in July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers this week that the U.S. central bank needed more time to gauge the impact of tariffs on prices before considering a rate cut. Economists argue that price increases have remained moderate because businesses are still selling inventory accumulated before the tariffs went into effect. They expect inflation will start picking up, beginning with consumer price data for June. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index gained 0.1% in May, matching the rise in April, the BEA said. In the 12 months through May, PCE inflation increased 2.3% after climbing 2.2% in April. Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, the PCE Price Index increased 0.2% last month. That followed a 0.1% rise in the so-called core PCE inflation in April. In the 12 months through April, core inflation advanced 2.7% after rising 2.6% in April. The Fed tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target. The central bank last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, where it has been since December.
Reuters
30-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
US consumer spending slows in April; inflation rises moderately
WASHINGTON, May 30 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending increased marginally in April as a rush to beat higher prices from import duties slowed. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.7% jump in March, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending climbing 0.2%. Pre-emptive buying of goods ahead of President Donald Trump's sweeping import tariffs helped to push spending higher in the prior month. Most of the tariffs have been implemented though higher duties on goods have been delayed until July. Duties on Chinese imports have been slashed to 30% from 145% until mid-August. Economists have argued that Trump's aggressive trade policy will sharply slow economic growth this year and boost inflation, concerns echoed by Federal Reserve officials. Minutes of the U.S. central bank's May 6-7 meeting published on Wednesday noted "participants judged that downside risks to employment and economic activity and upside risks to inflation had risen, primarily reflecting the potential effects of tariff increases." The U.S. central bank has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December. A U.S. trade court on Wednesday blocked most of Trump's tariffs from going into effect in a sweeping ruling that the president overstepped his authority. They were temporarily reinstated by a federal appeals court on Thursday, adding another layer of uncertainty over the economy's outlook. The economy by all measures contracted at a 0.2% annualized rate in the first quarter after growing at a 2.4% pace in the October-December quarter. With the exception of trade data, most official economic reports are yet to show the negative effects of tariffs in a significant way, though sentiment surveys have deteriorated. Economists expect the hit could become evident in June data. Inflation was benign in April, with retailers likely still selling inventory accumulated before the tariffs. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.1% last month after being unchanged in March, the BEA said. In the 12 months through April, PCE prices increased 2.1% after advancing 2.3% in March. Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index gained 0.1% last month. That followed a similar rise in the so-called core PCE inflation in March. In the 12 months through April, core inflation rose 2.5% after climbing 2.7% in March. The Fed tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target. Economists expect inflation to accelerate this year as tariffs raise goods prices. Consumers' one-year inflation expectations have soared. The Fed minutes on Wednesday showed some policymakers assessed that the surge in short-term inflation expectations "could make firms more willing to raise prices." They also saw a risk that longer-term inflation expectations "could drift upward, which could put additional upward pressure on inflation."
Reuters
15-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
US producer prices unexpectedly fall in April
WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in April as the cost of services declined by the most since 2009, pulled down by ebbing demand for air travel and hotel accommodation. The producer price index for final demand dropped 0.5% last month after an upwardly revised unchanged reading in March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rising 0.2% after a previously reported 0.4% drop in March. In the 12 months through April, the PPI increased 2.4% after climbing 3.4% in March. President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy, immigration crackdown as well as references to Canada as the 51th state and a desire to acquire Greenland have contributed to a sharp drop in tourist travel, hurting airline ticket sales, hotel and motel bookings. Wholesale services prices dropped 0.7%, the largest decline since the government started tracking the series in December 2009, after rising 0.4% in March. A 1.6% decrease in trade services, which measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers, accounted for more than two-thirds of drop in services. Prices for hotel and motel rooms dropped 3.1% after easing 0.5% in March. Portfolio management fees plunged 6.9%, while airline fares fell 1.5%. Portfolio management fees, hotel and motel accommodation and airline fares are among the components that go into the calculation of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, one of the inflation measures tracked by the Federal Reserve for its 2% target. Last month's tame reading could see economists downgrade their core PCE inflation estimates for April, which are currently around a 0.2% increase. The core PCE price index was unchanged in March and rose 2.6% year-on-year. Financial markets expect the U.S. central bank to resume cutting interest rates in September, though some economists believe policymakers could wait until December. While the United States and China moved to de-escalate their trade war over the weekend, tariffs remain higher than before President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January. Washington agreed to slash duties on Chinese goods to 30% for the next 90 days while Beijing will reduce tariffs on U.S. goods imported into China to 10% from 125%. A 10% blanket duty on almost all goods imported into the U.S. remained in place as did sectoral tariffs. Economists expect inflation will still rise this year, though not as sharply as they had estimated before the 90-day truce. They expected the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, to peak at around 3.6% this year, down from 4.0% previously.
