Latest news with #RajeevAgrawal
Economic Times
07-08-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Tariffs not the endgame, just opening moves: Rajeev Agrawal
"It's still early days. As we all know, Trump is a tough negotiator, and we must recognize that these are not final decisions—these are just the opening moves. I hear a lot of commentary from people taking extreme positions on either side, but I personally believe this is an opportunity for high-level negotiations to resolve the matter," says Rajeev Agrawal, DoorDarshi India Fund. ADVERTISEMENT Given that former President Trump had been hinting at additional levies for some time, and now we're seeing action on that front, do you believe these developments are part of a broader geopolitical strategy rather than just a trade dispute? And how should India view these initial moves—are they threats or openings for strategic negotiation, especially considering the strong democratic and economic alignment between India and the US? Rajeev Agrawal: This has been building for a little while, with Mr. Trump giving a lot of indications that there would be additional levies. It just wasn't clear what exactly they would be. What this effectively means is that Trump is not just bargaining on trade, but also on how the entire geopolitical establishment views who is buying still early days. As we all know, Trump is a tough negotiator, and we must recognize that these are not final decisions—these are just the opening moves. I hear a lot of commentary from people taking extreme positions on either side, but I personally believe this is an opportunity for high-level negotiations to resolve the matter. Ultimately, India and the US are natural partners in terms of how our systems operate. We're both capitalistic, democratic nations, and there is much we can collaborate on. Trade barriers like these shouldn't get in the way of the long-term future we can build together. As you were saying, it could actually serve as an opportunity. I wanted to understand—what do you make of the timing of this latest announcement of a 50% tariff? NSA Ajit Doval is in Russia at the moment, and Trump's comments are coming now, while on August 25th, a US delegation is scheduled to visit India to discuss this matter further. The tariffs take effect only on August 27th. So, what do you make of this timeline? What does it suggest about the future of ties between the two countries? Rajeev Agrawal: That's a very important point you've raised. There are 21 days from now until the tariffs take effect, and there's still a lot of room for positive developments in that window. We have the US trade delegation coming, and of course, India and the US have been in constant communication through back fact that India's Prime Minister will be attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting also gives India some leverage—since this involves engaging with one of the US's key global competitors, namely China, on Chinese soil. That adds a layer of flexibility. ADVERTISEMENT But clearly, the idea should be for both countries to move forward in a way that's mutually beneficial. So, the timing suggests to me that there is still significant room for negotiation. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
07-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Tariffs not the endgame, just opening moves: Rajeev Agrawal
"It's still early days. As we all know, Trump is a tough negotiator, and we must recognize that these are not final decisions—these are just the opening moves. I hear a lot of commentary from people taking extreme positions on either side, but I personally believe this is an opportunity for high-level negotiations to resolve the matter," says Rajeev Agrawal, DoorDarshi India Fund. Given that former President Trump had been hinting at additional levies for some time, and now we're seeing action on that front, do you believe these developments are part of a broader geopolitical strategy rather than just a trade dispute? And how should India view these initial moves—are they threats or openings for strategic negotiation, especially considering the strong democratic and economic alignment between India and the US? Rajeev Agrawal: This has been building for a little while, with Mr. Trump giving a lot of indications that there would be additional levies. It just wasn't clear what exactly they would be. What this effectively means is that Trump is not just bargaining on trade, but also on how the entire geopolitical establishment views who is buying what. Productivity Tool Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide By Metla Sudha Sekhar View Program Finance Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By Dinesh Nagpal View Program Finance Financial Literacy i e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By CA Rahul Gupta View Program Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel By Neil Patel View Program Finance Technical Analysis Demystified- A Complete Guide to Trading By Kunal Patel View Program Productivity Tool Excel Essentials to Expert: Your Complete Guide By Study at home View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Treatment That Might Help You Against Knee Pain Knee pain| search ads Find Now Undo It's still early days. As we all know, Trump is a tough negotiator, and we must recognize that these are not final decisions—these are just the opening moves. I hear a lot of commentary from people taking extreme positions on either side, but I personally believe this is an opportunity for high-level negotiations to resolve the matter. Ultimately, India and the US are natural partners in terms of how our systems operate. We're both capitalistic, democratic nations, and there is much we can collaborate on. Trade barriers like these shouldn't get in the way of the long-term future we can build together. As you were saying, it could actually serve as an opportunity. I wanted to understand—what do you make of the timing of this latest announcement of a 50% tariff? NSA Ajit Doval is in Russia at the moment, and Trump's comments are coming now, while on August 25th, a US delegation is scheduled to visit India to discuss this matter further. The tariffs take effect only on August 27th. So, what do you make of this timeline? What does it suggest about the future of ties between the two countries? Rajeev Agrawal: That's a very important point you've raised. There are 21 days from now until the tariffs take effect, and there's still a lot of room for positive developments in that window. We have the US trade delegation coming, and of course, India and the US have been in constant communication through back channels. Live Events The fact that India's Prime Minister will be attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting also gives India some leverage—since this involves engaging with one of the US's key global competitors, namely China, on Chinese soil. That adds a layer of flexibility. But clearly, the idea should be for both countries to move forward in a way that's mutually beneficial. So, the timing suggests to me that there is still significant room for negotiation.
Economic Times
28-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Sectoral divergence growing, markets watching both macros and micro moves: Rajeev Agrawal
"What we have to do now is see where India comes in because really there is not a lot of talk that is happening about India deal and that is to some extent a little bit of a concern at this stage," says Rajeev Agrawal, DoorDarshi India Fund. ADVERTISEMENT There is definitely some progress which seems to be made on the tariff deals that Trump has been signing and this time around it is EU. While we are of course awaiting when is going to be India's turn, but it seems that negotiations are pretty hard, but how is it that you are reading into the market construct both US and of course India? Rajeev Agrawal: So, in terms of how I am reading the market, it is quite clear that Trump is in the deal making mode, but he is really getting a lot of investments for the US which is interesting that EU had to actually go back and look at investing in the US which is really surprising to me that they are putting $750 billion in the US, that is quite surprising given their own investments that they have to do in the economy, but they are ultimately able to get 15%. What we have to do now is see where India comes in because really there is not a lot of talk that is happening about India deal and that is to some extent a little bit of a concern at this stage. I just want to take that point ahead, it is a little bit of a concern now that the US has announced deals with major global economies and 15% for UK, 15% for EU, you have this 15% number that is gaining centre stage right now. Where do you think Indian tariffs could come down to? We at 26% right now. Do you think 15 could be a possibility for us? Rajeev Agrawal: I am sure India is looking at that. India has been trying to have a favourable term. I do not think given some of the negotiations and the deal making that has happened. It looks that earlier India was shooting for 10%, clearly that does not seem like it is anywhere close at this stage, so that 10% to 20% is the range and the lower is obviously good. But the given the sort of deals that are happening, 15% looks like a nice round number at this stage and that is what India will end up. Very frankly at this stage the negotiations have to be, rather than at the official level it has to be at the top level between the leaders of both the nations, that is really what it will take to get the deal done. Just wanted to have your take on the auto sector as a whole because it was Japan for which the 15% tariff has been announced and in the latest it is EU that will be going ahead with a 15% tariff on the cars itself. How do you see the sentiment shaping up for autos because 15% is indeed very less versus what was anticipated earlier. So, do you believe good times for the global automotive sector? Rajeev Agrawal: Auto sector in my view is a little bit struggling especially in the new space, in the EV space, because in the US especially the EV industry has not picked up as much. And given the desire to not have as much subsidies, so in the US for example the federal subsidies are going to go away after September. So, in the new vehicle space, in the new technology space in autos, there will be struggle there. ADVERTISEMENT But in other areas, maybe in the traditional ice technology, maybe there will be a little bit more of a pickup, but overall autos will frankly not necessarily do as well unless and until we see the economies start picking up in a major manner. ADVERTISEMENT So, where does that leave equity markets like India because it is pretty reflective in the price? We have been just range bound. Of course, the big concern is softness in earnings and we can see that clearly play out at least with, of course, it which was much expected, but individual cases within banks too now. Rajeev Agrawal: So, as you pointed out earlier in the show, clearly it is not industrywide. It is player by player and some players are doing better than others and so it is quite interesting how different players are looking to grow but really struggling either on the credit side or in the particular segments that they are in. Looking more at the overall Indian macro, I would think and the Indian markets, the big news for this week will definitely be the deal or no deal that we were discussing earlier and that could have a very sharp reaction either way depending on what happens. Apart from that as you have also said there are a lot of earnings that are coming out and those earnings will drive the market. ADVERTISEMENT (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
28-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Sectoral divergence growing, markets watching both macros and micro moves: Rajeev Agrawal
"What we have to do now is see where India comes in because really there is not a lot of talk that is happening about India deal and that is to some extent a little bit of a concern at this stage," says Rajeev Agrawal , DoorDarshi India Fund. There is definitely some progress which seems to be made on the tariff deals that Trump has been signing and this time around it is EU. While we are of course awaiting when is going to be India's turn, but it seems that negotiations are pretty hard, but how is it that you are reading into the market construct both US and of course India? Rajeev Agrawal: So, in terms of how I am reading the market, it is quite clear that Trump is in the deal making mode, but he is really getting a lot of investments for the US which is interesting that EU had to actually go back and look at investing in the US which is really surprising to me that they are putting $750 billion in the US, that is quite surprising given their own investments that they have to do in the economy, but they are ultimately able to get 15%. 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I just want to take that point ahead, it is a little bit of a concern now that the US has announced deals with major global economies and 15% for UK, 15% for EU, you have this 15% number that is gaining centre stage right now. Where do you think Indian tariffs could come down to? We at 26% right now. Do you think 15 could be a possibility for us? Rajeev Agrawal: I am sure India is looking at that. India has been trying to have a favourable term. I do not think given some of the negotiations and the deal making that has happened. It looks that earlier India was shooting for 10%, clearly that does not seem like it is anywhere close at this stage, so that 10% to 20% is the range and the lower is obviously good. But the given the sort of deals that are happening, 15% looks like a nice round number at this stage and that is what India will end up. Very frankly at this stage the negotiations have to be, rather than at the official level it has to be at the top level between the leaders of both the nations, that is really what it will take to get the deal done. Live Events Just wanted to have your take on the auto sector as a whole because it was Japan for which the 15% tariff has been announced and in the latest it is EU that will be going ahead with a 15% tariff on the cars itself. How do you see the sentiment shaping up for autos because 15% is indeed very less versus what was anticipated earlier. So, do you believe good times for the global automotive sector? Rajeev Agrawal: Auto sector in my view is a little bit struggling especially in the new space, in the EV space, because in the US especially the EV industry has not picked up as much. And given the desire to not have as much subsidies, so in the US for example the federal subsidies are going to go away after September. So, in the new vehicle space, in the new technology space in autos, there will be struggle there. But in other areas, maybe in the traditional ice technology, maybe there will be a little bit more of a pickup, but overall autos will frankly not necessarily do as well unless and until we see the economies start picking up in a major manner. So, where does that leave equity markets like India because it is pretty reflective in the price? We have been just range bound. Of course, the big concern is softness in earnings and we can see that clearly play out at least with, of course, it which was much expected, but individual cases within banks too now. Rajeev Agrawal: So, as you pointed out earlier in the show, clearly it is not industrywide. It is player by player and some players are doing better than others and so it is quite interesting how different players are looking to grow but really struggling either on the credit side or in the particular segments that they are in. Looking more at the overall Indian macro, I would think and the Indian markets, the big news for this week will definitely be the deal or no deal that we were discussing earlier and that could have a very sharp reaction either way depending on what happens. Apart from that as you have also said there are a lot of earnings that are coming out and those earnings will drive the market.
Economic Times
30-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
NBFCs may outperform banks as rate cut fears weigh on NIMs: Rajeev Agrawal
"If we look at some of the recent metrics that have come out in terms of the PMI and all that, they are looking pretty strong, interest rates are coming down. So, in general, the sense on India's macro looks pretty good and that is one of the reasons that the markets are going up but clearly, it is not a cheap market as you were saying earlier in the show," says Rajeev Agrawal, DoorDarshi India Fund. ADVERTISEMENT What is the headline we should focus on? Yesterday, it was the ruling from a US Appeal Federal Court that tariff will not be implemented. Today, the headline is tariff will be implemented. Can we decide what we should focus on, 24 hours and world changes? Rajeev Agrawal: That is the fun of today's times that things are changing so rapidly that you have to either focus on them or ignore them completely. One possibility is do not even worry about all these things and focus on the fundamentals. Indian markets are going up. Is it largely because of flows? Is it largely because of monsoon? Because between April and May, the sentiment has changed, prices have changed, outlook has changed, and flows have changed. What is driving Indian markets higher? Rajeev Agrawal: So, one is definitely the flows. We have seen FPIs come back into the market quite strongly, Indian markets. I think, also as financial year 25 has ended and that was a single-digit earnings growth, there is expectation that given that the lower base the earnings going into next year will be strong. If we look at some of the recent metrics that have come out in terms of the PMI and all that, they are looking pretty strong, interest rates are coming down. So, in general, the sense on India's macro looks pretty good and that is one of the reasons that the markets are going up but clearly, it is not a cheap market as you were saying earlier in the show. ADVERTISEMENT So, what has been your portfolio strategy, recommending to buy anything, book out of anything? What is looking like, it is already frothy and what is looking like there is value on the table now that earnings also are behind us? Rajeev Agrawal: So, in terms of what we are buying, actually we are rotating a little bit. So, what we are doing is selling some of the more expensive names and then utilising the cash available to get into some of the more compelling opportunities in this market. Areas where we are finding good opportunities continues to be financials where we think still there is this concern that interest rates are coming down which will have pressure on the NIMs especially for banks, but that may not be the case for the NBFC, so that could be one area that one could look at. ADVERTISEMENT Capital markets, again as the markets are coming back, some of the capital market players were hit quite hard when the correction came, so some of the markets either on the wealth side, asset management side, and as well as the capital markets, they continue to look quite interesting even at this point. ADVERTISEMENT Just tell our viewers about your top India holdings, where have you been investing, where were you invested, where you plan to remain invested, and where were you invested and now you are selling it. Rajeev Agrawal: So, in terms of financials, I am happy to give you some names, I know there are a lot of regulations around it, so I will just give the caveat that obviously this is not recommendation. But I think some of the power finance companies look pretty interesting to us. The power is going to be an area where there will be a lot of development in India given the power need and if we look at both PFC and REC, those companies should continue to grow their book. They are not necessarily that expensive even in this market and the asset quality is improving, so that is one area that we basically remain bullish about. In terms of where we are, if we are selling some, I think some of the renewable energy areas are where there is enough value possibly or enough price now that one could look at starting to get out, I mean some of the solar names you can see that they have gone up quite a bit as the business has improved, but frankly running a bit ahead and then another one is the defence area where clearly the names have run up very quickly and there might be an opportunity for people to take some money off. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
