Tariffs not the endgame, just opening moves: Rajeev Agrawal
high-level negotiations
to resolve the matter," says Rajeev Agrawal, DoorDarshi India Fund.
Given that former President Trump had been hinting at additional levies for some time, and now we're seeing action on that front, do you believe these developments are part of a broader
geopolitical strategy
rather than just a trade dispute? And how should India view these initial moves—are they threats or openings for strategic negotiation, especially considering the strong democratic and economic alignment between India and the US?
Rajeev Agrawal:
This has been building for a little while, with Mr. Trump giving a lot of indications that there would be additional levies. It just wasn't clear what exactly they would be. What this effectively means is that Trump is not just bargaining on trade, but also on how the entire geopolitical establishment views who is buying what.
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It's still early days. As we all know, Trump is a tough negotiator, and we must recognize that these are not final decisions—these are just the opening moves. I hear a lot of commentary from people taking extreme positions on either side, but I personally believe this is an opportunity for high-level negotiations to resolve the matter.
Ultimately, India and the US are natural partners in terms of how our systems operate. We're both capitalistic, democratic nations, and there is much we can collaborate on. Trade barriers like these shouldn't get in the way of the long-term future we can build together.
As you were saying, it could actually serve as an opportunity. I wanted to understand—what do you make of the timing of this latest announcement of a 50% tariff? NSA Ajit Doval is in Russia at the moment, and Trump's comments are coming now, while on August 25th, a US delegation is scheduled to visit India to discuss this matter further. The tariffs take effect only on August 27th. So, what do you make of this timeline? What does it suggest about the future of ties between the two countries?
Rajeev Agrawal:
That's a very important point you've raised. There are 21 days from now until the tariffs take effect, and there's still a lot of room for positive developments in that window. We have the US trade delegation coming, and of course, India and the US have been in constant communication through back channels.
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The fact that India's Prime Minister will be attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting also gives India some leverage—since this involves engaging with one of the US's key global competitors, namely China, on Chinese soil. That adds a layer of flexibility.
But clearly, the idea should be for both countries to move forward in a way that's mutually beneficial. So, the timing suggests to me that there is still significant room for negotiation.
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