Latest news with #Raupach
The Australian
3 days ago
- Climate
- The Australian
‘Bigger' and ‘more frequent' hail predicted for Australian cities
Younger generations of Australians are being warned to expect significantly larger and more frequent hail into the future with a new study revealing which cities are most at risk. The paper from UNSW's Dr Timothy Raupach and Dr Joanna Aldridge looked at the possible changes a 2.4 degree rise in global temperatures would have on Australian hailstorms from 2080-2100. 'Between (time periods), there were increases in seasonal hail days of 29 per cent around Sydney/Canberra and 15 per cent around Brisbane,' Dr Raupach told NewsWire. Large hailstones outside Parliament House in Canberra after a 2020 storm. Picture: David Foote/ AUSPIC/DPS 'Mean hail size increased by 0.5mm around Melbourne, Sydney/Canberra, and Brisbane, while maximum hail size, important for damage potential, increased by 7.8mm around Melbourne and 3.9mm around Sydney/Canberra.' Dr Raupach said any hail above two centimetres in diameter was considered damaging. 'Here we're talking about very large hailstones, sort of five centimetres or even 10 centimetres,' Dr Raupach said. 'Those are kinds of hail that can punch through people's roofs and cause their roof tiles to break and then you get flooding inside the house and of course they also can damage cars and be very dangerous for people as well. 'Because the damage you get from a hailstorm correlates very closely with the size of the hailstones that are produced by that storm, it indicates that in those regions we would be looking at an increased damage risk.' Maximum hail ball sizes are predicted to reach up to 10cm in diameter. Picture: Danni/Brisbane Weather Data from the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) shows hail is already one of Australia's most costly natural disasters with the frozen water missiles responsible for more than 20 per cent of insurance losses in Australia from 1967 to 2023. Hail is also not currently part of the building regulations Australian constructors are expected to adhere to, it's a point Dr Raupach believes can be acted on now to strengthen our cities into the future. 'I think there's room for discussions around how they could be built in because hail already – even without the future climate forecast – causes really significant damage,' he said. 'It's a leading driver of insured losses year to year. 'So building in things like hail resilience into our building standards would be a really good way to start to strengthen our cities. And then we can also look at possible future changes as well.' The paper projected reductions in damaging winds in proximity to hail for Melbourne, Sydney/Canberra and Perth. Picture: weather zone Dr Raupach said the research was still in its early stages and further studies were needed to gain greater clarity and confidence in predictions. 'This is just one study, so it's looking at it from one angle. It's using one simulation and one model,' he said. 'Ideally, we'd have multiple simulations in what's called an ensemble where you have lots of different simulations and you can look at how much they agree or disagree.' For those who are confused how a rise in global temperatures equates to giant hail balls, Dr Raupach explained for every degree the atmosphere warms, it can hold 7 per cent more moisture. This added moisture means more 'fuel' for passing weather systems to draw on, when that weather system is a hail producing one it means larger and more damaging hail. Robert White Cadet Robert got his start as an Editorial Assistant at the Daily Telegraph in 2024 before entering the Newscorp cadet program. With a background in history and law Robert has a passion for politics and crime reporting as well as telling meaningful stories. @white_robb73416 Robert White
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
‘Bigger, more frequent' hail for Aus cities
Younger generations of Australians are being warned to expect significantly larger and more frequent hail into the future with a new study revealing which cities are most at risk. The paper from UNSW's Dr Timothy Raupach and Dr Joanna Aldridge looked at the possible changes a 2.4 degree rise in global temperatures would have on Australian hailstorms from 2080-2100. 'Between (time periods), there were increases in seasonal hail days of 29 per cent around Sydney/Canberra and 15 per cent around Brisbane,' Dr Raupach told NewsWire. 'Mean hail size increased by 0.5mm around Melbourne, Sydney/Canberra, and Brisbane, while maximum hail size, important for damage potential, increased by 7.8mm around Melbourne and 3.9mm around Sydney/Canberra.' Dr Raupach said any hail above two centimetres in diameter was considered damaging. 'Here we're talking about very large hailstones, sort of five centimetres or even 10 centimetres,' Dr Raupach said. 'Those are kinds of hail that can punch through people's roofs and cause their roof tiles to break and then you get flooding inside the house and of course they also can damage cars and be very dangerous for people as well. 'Because the damage you get from a hailstorm correlates very closely with the size of the hailstones that are produced by that storm, it indicates that in those regions we would be looking at an increased damage risk.' Data from the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) shows hail is already one of Australia's most costly natural disasters with the frozen water missiles responsible for more than 20 per cent of insurance losses in Australia from 1967 to 2023. Hail is also not currently part of the building regulations Australian constructors are expected to adhere to, it's a point Dr Raupach believes can be acted on now to strengthen our cities into the future. 'I think there's room for discussions around how they could be built in because hail already – even without the future climate forecast – causes really significant damage,' he said. 'It's a leading driver of insured losses year to year. 'So building in things like hail resilience into our building standards would be a really good way to start to strengthen our cities. And then we can also look at possible future changes as well.' Dr Raupach said the research was still in its early stages and further studies were needed to gain greater clarity and confidence in predictions. 'This is just one study, so it's looking at it from one angle. It's using one simulation and one model,' he said. 'Ideally, we'd have multiple simulations in what's called an ensemble where you have lots of different simulations and you can look at how much they agree or disagree.' For those who are confused how a rise in global temperatures equates to giant hail balls, Dr Raupach explained for every degree the atmosphere warms, it can hold 7 per cent more moisture. This added moisture means more 'fuel' for passing weather systems to draw on, when that weather system is a hail producing one it means larger and more damaging hail.
West Australian
3 days ago
- Climate
- West Australian
‘Bigger, more frequent' hail forecast for Australian cities
Younger generations of Australians are being warned to expect significantly larger and more frequent hail into the future with a new study revealing which cities are most at risk. The paper from UNSW's Dr Timothy Raupach and Dr Joanna Aldridge looked at the possible changes a 2.4 degree rise in global temperatures would have on Australian hailstorms from 2080-2100. 'Between (time periods), there were increases in seasonal hail days of 29 per cent around Sydney/Canberra and 15 per cent around Brisbane,' Dr Raupach told NewsWire. 'Mean hail size increased by 0.5mm around Melbourne, Sydney/Canberra, and Brisbane, while maximum hail size, important for damage potential, increased by 7.8mm around Melbourne and 3.9mm around Sydney/Canberra.' Dr Raupach said any hail above two centimetres in diameter was considered damaging. 'Here we're talking about very large hailstones, sort of five centimetres or even 10 centimetres,' Dr Raupach said. 'Those are kinds of hail that can punch through people's roofs and cause their roof tiles to break and then you get flooding inside the house and of course they also can damage cars and be very dangerous for people as well. 'Because the damage you get from a hailstorm correlates very closely with the size of the hailstones that are produced by that storm, it indicates that in those regions we would be looking at an increased damage risk.' Data from the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) shows hail is already one of Australia's most costly natural disasters with the frozen water missiles responsible for more than 20 per cent of insurance losses in Australia from 1967 to 2023. Hail is also not currently part of the building regulations Australian constructors are expected to adhere to, it's a point Dr Raupach believes can be acted on now to strengthen our cities into the future. 'I think there's room for discussions around how they could be built in because hail already – even without the future climate forecast – causes really significant damage,' he said. 'It's a leading driver of insured losses year to year. 'So building in things like hail resilience into our building standards would be a really good way to start to strengthen our cities. And then we can also look at possible future changes as well.' Dr Raupach said the research was still in its early stages and further studies were needed to gain greater clarity and confidence in predictions. 'This is just one study, so it's looking at it from one angle. It's using one simulation and one model,' he said. 'Ideally, we'd have multiple simulations in what's called an ensemble where you have lots of different simulations and you can look at how much they agree or disagree.' For those who are confused how a rise in global temperatures equates to giant hail balls, Dr Raupach explained for every degree the atmosphere warms, it can hold 7 per cent more moisture. This added moisture means more 'fuel' for passing weather systems to draw on, when that weather system is a hail producing one it means larger and more damaging hail.
Perth Now
3 days ago
- Climate
- Perth Now
‘Bigger, more frequent' hail for Aus cities
Younger generations of Australians are being warned to expect significantly larger and more frequent hail into the future with a new study revealing which cities are most at risk. The paper from UNSW's Dr Timothy Raupach and Dr Joanna Aldridge looked at the possible changes a 2.4 degree rise in global temperatures would have on Australian hailstorms from 2080-2100. 'Between (time periods), there were increases in seasonal hail days of 29 per cent around Sydney/Canberra and 15 per cent around Brisbane,' Dr Raupach told NewsWire. Large hailstones outside Parliament House in Canberra after a 2020 storm. David Foote/ AUSPIC/DPS Credit: Supplied 'Mean hail size increased by 0.5mm around Melbourne, Sydney/Canberra, and Brisbane, while maximum hail size, important for damage potential, increased by 7.8mm around Melbourne and 3.9mm around Sydney/Canberra.' Dr Raupach said any hail above two centimetres in diameter was considered damaging. 'Here we're talking about very large hailstones, sort of five centimetres or even 10 centimetres,' Dr Raupach said. 'Those are kinds of hail that can punch through people's roofs and cause their roof tiles to break and then you get flooding inside the house and of course they also can damage cars and be very dangerous for people as well. 'Because the damage you get from a hailstorm correlates very closely with the size of the hailstones that are produced by that storm, it indicates that in those regions we would be looking at an increased damage risk.' Maximum hail ball sizes are predicted to reach up to 10cm in diameter. Danni/Brisbane Weather Credit: Supplied Data from the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) shows hail is already one of Australia's most costly natural disasters with the frozen water missiles responsible for more than 20 per cent of insurance losses in Australia from 1967 to 2023. Hail is also not currently part of the building regulations Australian constructors are expected to adhere to, it's a point Dr Raupach believes can be acted on now to strengthen our cities into the future. 'I think there's room for discussions around how they could be built in because hail already – even without the future climate forecast – causes really significant damage,' he said. 'It's a leading driver of insured losses year to year. 'So building in things like hail resilience into our building standards would be a really good way to start to strengthen our cities. And then we can also look at possible future changes as well.' The paper projected reductions in damaging winds in proximity to hail for Melbourne, Sydney/Canberra and Perth. weather zone Credit: Supplied Dr Raupach said the research was still in its early stages and further studies were needed to gain greater clarity and confidence in predictions. 'This is just one study, so it's looking at it from one angle. It's using one simulation and one model,' he said. 'Ideally, we'd have multiple simulations in what's called an ensemble where you have lots of different simulations and you can look at how much they agree or disagree.' For those who are confused how a rise in global temperatures equates to giant hail balls, Dr Raupach explained for every degree the atmosphere warms, it can hold 7 per cent more moisture. This added moisture means more 'fuel' for passing weather systems to draw on, when that weather system is a hail producing one it means larger and more damaging hail.
9 News
4 days ago
- Climate
- 9 News
Call for action as huge storm change to hit millions of Aussies
Your web browser is no longer supported. To improve your experience update it here Millions of Australians in the country's largest cities could be facing a future of giant, more intense hailstorms, according to a new study. Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne, and Perth are all in the firing line, according to the research from the University of NSW's Sydney's Institute for Climate Risk and Response. The study found that climate change could bring more damaging hailstorms as the globe heats up. The larger a hailstone is, the more damage it can cause. (Instagram/@smashleaduff) In analysing simulations of weather in a warmer world, "we're seeing an increase in hail size over some capital cities", study lead author Dr Tim Raupach said. However, other cities such as Adelaide did not show major changes in the simulations. "More research is needed to better address the complexities in modelling hail," Raupach said. Australia is facing a future of increased hail intensity, according to one study. (Nine) Hailstorms were responsible for more than 20 per cent of insured losses in Australia from 1967 to 2023. The damage is largely driven by the size of hailstones, with the record in Australia standing at about 16cm across for a stone found near Mackay, Queensland – more than twice the size of a cricket ball. Raupach said more intense storms in the future could increase the chances of large-diameter hail. Particular regions of Australia are most vulnerable. (Nine) "We looked at changes in hailstone size between simulations of historical and future periods," he said. "And we can see increases in hail size produced by the model around Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne and Perth. "For example, in past simulations, very large, 10 cm hailstones were expected once every 20 years around Melbourne. But in a warmer future, it's once every three years." Solar panels are vulnerable to hail storms. (Wolter Peeters/SMH) Despite being made of ice, hailstones rely on warmth for their formation. In a thunderstorm, strong winds – updrafts – carry moisture high up into the atmosphere, where it freezes. These ice particles – known as 'hail embryos' – pick up supercooled water as they circulate through the storm cloud. To grow large hailstones, the storm cloud needs to be tall, with lots of energy to keep the stone suspended long enough to gather layers of ice. While hail can fall anywhere in Australia, certain regions are particularly exposed. "The main region is the East Coast from a bit north of Brisbane to a bit south of Sydney," Raupach said. One of the major concerns about an increase in hail in that heavily-populated area, is the vulnerability of solar panels – though Raupach said this should not deter investment in renewables. "We should also think about how to strengthen our cities to resist hail damage, especially if hailstone size is increasing with climate change," he said. But in the meantime, Australians should become more acquainted with hail preparation. "To be protected from hail you can move undercover, move your car undercover, have good insurance and have strong roof tiles," Raupach said. He says some farmers use hail nets. QBE Insurance's Dr Joanna Aldridge, co-author of the study, warned that Australian building standards don't include hail resistance. This left many properties "vulnerable", she said. If Australians need to take steps in the short term, Raupach also urged long-term action, both to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to further the study of future hail trends and how they could affect urban environments in particular. "It's very early days, but maybe one day we could design cities with a reduced storm risk," he said. science storm Wild Weather Australia national climate change CONTACT US
