‘Bigger, more frequent' hail forecast for Australian cities
The paper from UNSW's Dr Timothy Raupach and Dr Joanna Aldridge looked at the possible changes a 2.4 degree rise in global temperatures would have on Australian hailstorms from 2080-2100.
'Between (time periods), there were increases in seasonal hail days of 29 per cent around Sydney/Canberra and 15 per cent around Brisbane,' Dr Raupach told NewsWire.
'Mean hail size increased by 0.5mm around Melbourne, Sydney/Canberra, and Brisbane, while maximum hail size, important for damage potential, increased by 7.8mm around Melbourne and 3.9mm around Sydney/Canberra.'
Dr Raupach said any hail above two centimetres in diameter was considered damaging.
'Here we're talking about very large hailstones, sort of five centimetres or even 10 centimetres,' Dr Raupach said.
'Those are kinds of hail that can punch through people's roofs and cause their roof tiles to break and then you get flooding inside the house and of course they also can damage cars and be very dangerous for people as well.
'Because the damage you get from a hailstorm correlates very closely with the size of the hailstones that are produced by that storm, it indicates that in those regions we would be looking at an increased damage risk.'
Data from the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) shows hail is already one of Australia's most costly natural disasters with the frozen water missiles responsible for more than 20 per cent of insurance losses in Australia from 1967 to 2023.
Hail is also not currently part of the building regulations Australian constructors are expected to adhere to, it's a point Dr Raupach believes can be acted on now to strengthen our cities into the future.
'I think there's room for discussions around how they could be built in because hail already – even without the future climate forecast – causes really significant damage,' he said.
'It's a leading driver of insured losses year to year.
'So building in things like hail resilience into our building standards would be a really good way to start to strengthen our cities. And then we can also look at possible future changes as well.'
Dr Raupach said the research was still in its early stages and further studies were needed to gain greater clarity and confidence in predictions.
'This is just one study, so it's looking at it from one angle. It's using one simulation and one model,' he said.
'Ideally, we'd have multiple simulations in what's called an ensemble where you have lots of different simulations and you can look at how much they agree or disagree.'
For those who are confused how a rise in global temperatures equates to giant hail balls, Dr Raupach explained for every degree the atmosphere warms, it can hold 7 per cent more moisture.
This added moisture means more 'fuel' for passing weather systems to draw on, when that weather system is a hail producing one it means larger and more damaging hail.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
7NEWS
14 hours ago
- 7NEWS
Freezing at home? The heating that keeps you warm and adds value to your property
If you're one of those people shivering through another winter and vowing to invest in new heating in time for the next one, your head is likely spinning from all the choices. In a country where climate extremes are becoming the new normal, and energy efficiency is more important than ever, Australian homeowners are faced with an increasing number of heating options from affordable choices such as split systems and wood burners to smarter, more sustainable options. But when it comes to heating that will not only keep you warm, but add value to your home, most experts say there are a couple of heating choices you can't go past. Topping the list is electric hydronic heating which is quickly emerging as the gold standard when it comes to heating your home in Australia, particularly in cooler climates, such as Victoria, Tasmania and Canberra and regional NSW. Simon Clark, president of the Sustainable Builders Alliance and the founder and director of Sustainable Homes Melbourne says hydronic heating is the "bees' knees" when it comes to heating your home, particular for those with older, "leaky" homes. By leaky, he means drafty homes with poorly sealed windows and doors, gaps in flooring, and inadequate insulation, which are more common in older homes. "Hydronic heating is a lovely ambient heat that just stays in the home and doesn't blow through and out of the home like a lot of the breezier alternatives," Mr Clark says. While you can get both gas and electric hydronic heating, Mr Clark says an increasing number of home buyers are now specifically looking for no-gas homes. Goodbye to gas He says renovating or building a home with electric heating, especially if it can be powered by solar panels can add enormous value to a home. "One of the biggest objectives for most of our clients we work with now, whether it's a renovation of an old home or a new home, is to have no gas," Mr Clark says. The latest electric hydronic heating can be effectively run using solar power, offering a sustainable and efficient way to heat homes. By pairing solar panels with a heat pump or electric boiler, the system can utilise solar energy to heat water, which is then circulated through pipes for heating the space, either through underfloor heating or radiator panels. Mr Clarke says while electric hydronic heating is 60 to 80 per cent more costly to install than gas, if it is powered by solar panels, it ends up being far cheaper, and more sustainable in the long run. Peter Stephens from real estate agent Nelson Alexander in Carlton North says installing a good hydronic heating system will add value to any home located in a cooler climate. "Home buyers, particularly down here in Melbourne, love hydronic heating, and we are finding more and more buyers carefully considering the energy efficiency of a home when they are buying," he says. "So, they are not just looking at the energy efficiency of the heating but the passive orientation of the entire home, including things like double-glazed windows and the thermal quality of the home," he says. Hot property: heating and selling price Mario Sanfrancesco from Blackshaw Manuka says in Canberra where it is mandatory to have an energy rating on every property that goes to market, choosing the right heating can have a significant impact on the selling price. "In Canberra, heating is a very important consideration for home buyers, given how grey and cold it can be." "Not only that, a good energy rating can really add to the value of your home, so it really is important to think through your heating options, in terms of costs, efficiency and sustainability," Mr Sanfrancesco says. He says the heating choices that add the most value to homes in Canberra include ducted heating systems and hydronic heating. "Ducted heating definitely adds value to a home compared to say a split system, while some of the higher-end builds now have hydronic in-floor slab heating which really boosts the price of a home," he says. Mr Sanfrancesco says while good ducted and hydronic heating will add value to a home in a cold-climate environment, it is just as important to ensure the home includes other energy efficiencies such as good insulation and double or triple glazing on the windows. "You can have the best form of heating but if you're losing that heat through inefficiencies like lots of windows and hard surfaces than it can be counterproductive," he says. Wood fires add ambience While split systems are one of the most common and affordable heating options for Australian homes, they don't necessarily add great dollar value to a property, particularly for bigger homes or those located in cooler areas of Australia. Meanwhile, experts agree open fireplaces and wood heaters do add value, mainly for the ambience and charm they add to a home. And for those appealing to high-end home buyers, underfloor heating in bathrooms and ensuites can definitely boost the price of a home. Mr Collins says electric hydronic heating is by far the best option for older homes dealing with drafts and poor insulation.
Herald Sun
14 hours ago
- Herald Sun
Australia added to tsunami advisory list after 8.8 magnitude earthquake on Russian coast
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre has added Australia to its advisory after a magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off the coast of eastern Russia. The earthquake hit east-southeast of Kamchatka in Russia's east about 9.24pm AEST, triggering tsunami warnings across the globe. The warnings have extended to Japan, Hawaii, parts of the west coast of North and South America, Alaska, parts of South East Asia, Guam and all Pacific Islands. The centre has also issued a warning to Australia, adding that waves reaching 0.3 to 1m are possible along the coast. The Bureau of Meteorology said there was no threat of a tsunami hitting Australia. Picture: BOM A Bureau of Meteorology spokesman said there was no tsunami threat to the country. 'The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre have assessed the event in the Pacific and there is no threat current to the Australian mainland and islands,' they told NewsWire. 'The JATWC will continue to monitor and assess the situation as it evolves.' However, Australia has been added to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre advisory. Picture: Supplied New Zealand has issued warnings to residents living in coastal areas, advising them to steer clear of beaches and the shore. The National Emergency Management Agency said there was no reason to evacuate unless ordered to do so by authorities. Affected areas include the West Coast of the North Island from Cape Reinga to Raglan, including the West Coast of Auckland and Manukau Harbour, and from Hawera to Whanganui. Other areas affected by the threat include the east and south coasts of the North Island from Cape Reinga to Makara including Whangarei, Great Barrier Island, the east coast of Auckland, Waiheke Island, Waitemata Harbour, Tauranga, Whakatane, Opotiki, Gisborne, Napier, Lake Ferry, the Wellington south coast and Wellington Harbour. Originally published as Australia added to tsunami advisory list after 8.8 magnitude earthquake strikes Russian coast
7NEWS
17 hours ago
- 7NEWS
Jane's weather: Rain system with Sydney and much of the NSW on its radar
Earlier this month we moved into a weather pattern where a new, big rain system affects some part of the country every few days. Tropical moisture is fed into low pressure and turned into widespread rain - for those in the path of the low pressure. The most recent system was huge, affecting every Australian state and territory, because the low crossed the Great Australian Bight near the coast and had a cold front stretching up into northern Australia, ensuring rain fell across a huge swathe of land. As always, there are some spots that miss out and the path of this one meant that it was from Melbourne through to Sydney, if you were taking the coastal route. Conversely, the Hume Freeway did extremely well, with falls over 50mm for much of the journey. The next weather system delivered in the west early in the week, then took a path over South Australia and New South Wales. This part was a nice follow up, but nothing significant. While the low pressure part disappears off the east coast, it does leave behind a pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere. This is the energy needed for the next low to form, and the weather pattern has decided that just off the northern NSW coast is the right spot for that low. Coastal lows can pack a punch, as we saw recently with the headlines that screamed Rain Bomb. That particular low developed quickly and deeply enough to undergo what is known as 'bombogenesis', while this upcoming one isn't likely to be quite as severe. We'll still see a lot of rain, with falls over 100mm highly likely along parts of the NSW coast and adjacent inland to the ranges. The winds strengthen too, especially on the weekend when the low is at its deepest, but may fall just short of widespread damaging gusts. Conditions ease early next week after the next big weather system crosses the west on the weekend. While this is occurring the southeast (away from the NSW coast) takes a break under high pressure. That high is likely to 'get in the way' of the next big system approaching from the west, blocking most of that rain early next week. Then a new feed of moisture from the Indian Ocean could develop mid next week. Another juicy, northwest cloudband. One to watch to see what path it takes and which areas see the next significant rain. Why are we seeing all these feeds of tropical moisture? Earlier this week the Indian Ocean crossed the threshold into a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole. A significant milestone for Australia's weather, and a sign that more rain systems are on the horizon.
