Latest news with #RebeccaBabin
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Gas prices pulling back: What to expect for the rest of 2025
A drop in crude oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices is driving gas prices lower. Rebecca Babin, CIBC Private Wealth senior energy trader, breaks down what's behind these moves and where oil and gas prices could go from here. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination. A sharp drop in energy prices is driving lower gas prices and that's helping keep a lid on headline inflation. In July's Consumer Price Index, the gas index fell 2.2% from the prior month helping pull the overall monthly headline number lower. For more, we're bringing in Rebecca Babin, Senior Energy Trader at CIBC Private Wealth. So Rebecca, let's start there. How much of this pullback in gas prices is driven by seasonal trends versus maybe broader shifts in the crude market? And do you expect this relief to last for consumers? So that's a great question, Allie. And I would say most of this pullback in gasoline prices has not been seasonal. Um seasonally, they adjust those numbers in the CPI. This has been much more structural and the structural change that's taken place for gasoline has really been the drop in crude oil prices. If we look at on a year-over-year basis, crude oil is down 15%, gasoline prices year over year are down around nine. So basically the inputs or the crude that goes into the refiners to make gasoline has really been under pressure because OPEC has been bringing back a lot of supply over the last six months and really compressing crude prices lower, combined with the fact that the economy is in question as we kind of move along this tariff journey and understanding what's happening with demand. So we have this kind of increase in supply coming from crude oil and concerns about demands. We've had a really big kind of pressure on the commodity price. Refining margins, interestingly, have actually held up really well. Thus the 9% drop in gasoline versus 15% in crude, and that's actually because we have had product inventories in gasoline really low. Venezuelan products have been off the market, we had wildfires in Canada, which hurt some products. So the product market, the refining margins have been okay. All of that kind of compression and price has come from crude oil itself falling lower. Interesting. So given all those structural changes, where do you see crude heading toward the year end? Are prices skewed to the downside? So the market is very much in consensus that the risk is to the downside from here. And it kind of plays into everything I kind of touched on. More supply coming from OPEC, more supply coming from non-OPEC. The EIA just released their monthly report and increased the non-OPEC supply for the year from the US, from Brazil. Um and then you have the OPEC supply as well. And demand, which is expected to kind of taper off here in the second half as tariffs start to bite. So consensus is that we gravitate down to kind of the mid to high 50s in WTI for the end of the year. My view is I actually think that's a little bit too negative and very much kind of telegraphed at this point. Um so I think we could kind of stay in this, let's call it 60 to 75 range. 60 being kind of that downside, lower end of the risk kind of spectrum, just because I'm looking at positioning, I'm looking at how many CTAs and systematic funds are starting to lean very short. The options market is starting to show you that puts are getting much more expensive than call options, which tells you that people are actively hedging that downside. So a little bit of this is starting to get priced in. So that's kind of, I like this 60 to 75 range. Um and I think the upside is bound by the fact that we do have a lot of supply that kind of sits on the sidelines in Saudi Arabia, in the UAE, um that kind of buffers a potential supply shock. Now, if we lose, you know, Russian barrels, and Friday is obviously a huge event, um for the oil market in terms of what happens with the Putin-Trump meeting and if Trump decides to move forward with either sanctions on the shadow fleet or tariffs, you know, that could change the picture pretty dramatically. I think the upside is buffered by that spare capacity.
CTV News
10-07-2025
- Business
- CTV News
Demand is the ‘wildcard' for oil prices as supply increases, expert says
Rebecca Babin, Senior Energy Trader at CIBC Private Wealth, joins BNN Bloomberg to dissect OPEC+ discussing potential oil production pause.
Yahoo
29-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices must be 'meaningfully higher' for more US production
Oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) are in focus as investors weigh the Middle East conflict's impact on the energy market. CIBC Private Wealth senior energy trader Rebecca Babin joins Market Domination to take a closer look and discuss the dynamics impacting the oil market. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. President Trump, right? He's posting on social media. He's posting Drill, baby, drill. It is a Trump mantra. It's a Republican mantra. You saw that, Rebecca. Do we actually see, in your opinion, a meaningful pickup in US production? I do not think you see a meaningful pickup in US production unless crude prices are meaningfully higher than they are right now. So let's call this strip right now at 65. And it's slightly lower further out. I do not think US producers are going to see this price action and say, "You know what, this is a great time for me to be putting money into my CAPEX and getting more crude out of the ground." Why? OPEC Plus is bringing back more barrels into the market and likely going to pressure prices. So I might be putting my investment into a market where other other sources of supply are also coming onto the market. They're also going to look at the recent volatility and say, "Okay, this is a different picture than I'm I'm comfortable with in terms of the amount of volatility in the price action. Maybe I actually step back and wait and see how things play out before I go put my dollars in and try to and try to produce more crude." So I don't think that that's going to be the initial reaction from US producers. They will respond to higher prices and price stability. And if we get those two things, um, they will absolutely start spending money and bringing out more barrels. I just don't think that that is the environment we're in, and I don't see that in the near term, and all of the data supports that if you look at rig counts. Rig counts have been falling precipitously over the past three months. This isn't an environment where they want to ratchet up the risk. If anything, they want to shore up their balance sheets and make sure they can survive this cycle and come out really strong the other side. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices sink 6% as Trump touts Israel-Iran ceasefire deal, supply worries ease
Oil futures tumbled on Tuesday after President Trump touted a US brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, and signaled easing of sanctions against Tehran. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell over 6% to trade nearat $64.37 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also tumbled to hover above $67.14 per barrel. Crude futures took a leg lower after Trump wrote on social media : "China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!' The comment was seen as a reversal of his stance in May when the President threatened 'secondary sanctions' against importers of Iranian oil. Earlier on Tuesday Trump attempted to keep both countries in line with a timeline on a ceasefire agreement he announced on Monday evening. "ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly 'Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!" wrote Trump. Oil settled 7% lower on Monday after Iran launched missile attacks on a US air base in Qatar, retaliating against Washington's strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Prices further weakened after Trump hinted Iran's retaliation had been telegraphed, thanking Tehran for "giving us early notice." "Iran's response appears to have been more symbolic than escalatory — targeting US military bases but avoiding any loss of life or damage to energy structure," Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Monday afternoon. Prior to the retaliatory move, Wall Street weighed various scenarios in the wake of the initial US strikes, including the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil flows. JPMorgan analysts projected the closure would be a "severe outcome" scenario, in which oil futures could spike to $120 to $130. "Yet, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains anchored by our supply-demand balance, which shows that the world has enough oil," Natasha Kaneva wrote on Monday morning. JPMorgan expects oil to trade in the low-to-mid-$60 range for the remainder of 2025, assuming the Middle East risk premium fully dissipates. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices sink 6% as Trump touts Israel-Iran peace deal, supply worries ease
Oil futures tumbled on Tuesday after President Trump touted a US brokered peace agreement between Israel and Iran, and signaled easing of sanctions against Tehran. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell over 6% to trade nearat $64.37 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also tumbled to hover above $67.14 per barrel. Crude futures took a leg lower after Trump wrote on social media : "China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!' Earlier on Tuesday the President attempted to keep both countries in line with a timeline on the peace agreement he announced on Monday evening. "ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly 'Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!" wrote Trump. Oil settled 7% lower on Monday after Iran launched missile attacks on a US air base in Qatar, retaliating against Washington's strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Prices further weakened after Trump hinted Iran's retaliation had been telegraphed, thanking Tehran for "giving us early notice." "Iran's response appears to have been more symbolic than escalatory — targeting US military bases but avoiding any loss of life or damage to energy structure," Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Monday afternoon. Prior to the retaliatory move, Wall Street weighed various scenarios in the wake of the initial US strikes, including the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil flows. JPMorgan analysts projected the closure would be a "severe outcome" scenario, in which oil futures could spike to $120 to $130. "Yet, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains anchored by our supply-demand balance, which shows that the world has enough oil," Natasha Kaneva wrote on Monday morning. JPMorgan expects oil to trade in the low-to-mid-$60 range for the remainder of 2025, assuming the Middle East risk premium fully dissipates. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
