Gas prices pulling back: What to expect for the rest of 2025
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A sharp drop in energy prices is driving lower gas prices and that's helping keep a lid on headline inflation. In July's Consumer Price Index, the gas index fell 2.2% from the prior month helping pull the overall monthly headline number lower. For more, we're bringing in Rebecca Babin, Senior Energy Trader at CIBC Private Wealth. So Rebecca, let's start there. How much of this pullback in gas prices is driven by seasonal trends versus maybe broader shifts in the crude market? And do you expect this relief to last for consumers?
So that's a great question, Allie. And I would say most of this pullback in gasoline prices has not been seasonal. Um seasonally, they adjust those numbers in the CPI. This has been much more structural and the structural change that's taken place for gasoline has really been the drop in crude oil prices. If we look at on a year-over-year basis, crude oil is down 15%, gasoline prices year over year are down around nine. So basically the inputs or the crude that goes into the refiners to make gasoline has really been under pressure because OPEC has been bringing back a lot of supply over the last six months and really compressing crude prices lower, combined with the fact that the economy is in question as we kind of move along this tariff journey and understanding what's happening with demand. So we have this kind of increase in supply coming from crude oil and concerns about demands. We've had a really big kind of pressure on the commodity price. Refining margins, interestingly, have actually held up really well. Thus the 9% drop in gasoline versus 15% in crude, and that's actually because we have had product inventories in gasoline really low. Venezuelan products have been off the market, we had wildfires in Canada, which hurt some products. So the product market, the refining margins have been okay. All of that kind of compression and price has come from crude oil itself falling lower.
Interesting. So given all those structural changes, where do you see crude heading toward the year end? Are prices skewed to the downside?
So the market is very much in consensus that the risk is to the downside from here. And it kind of plays into everything I kind of touched on. More supply coming from OPEC, more supply coming from non-OPEC. The EIA just released their monthly report and increased the non-OPEC supply for the year from the US, from Brazil. Um and then you have the OPEC supply as well. And demand, which is expected to kind of taper off here in the second half as tariffs start to bite. So consensus is that we gravitate down to kind of the mid to high 50s in WTI for the end of the year. My view is I actually think that's a little bit too negative and very much kind of telegraphed at this point. Um so I think we could kind of stay in this, let's call it 60 to 75 range. 60 being kind of that downside, lower end of the risk kind of spectrum, just because I'm looking at positioning, I'm looking at how many CTAs and systematic funds are starting to lean very short. The options market is starting to show you that puts are getting much more expensive than call options, which tells you that people are actively hedging that downside. So a little bit of this is starting to get priced in. So that's kind of, I like this 60 to 75 range. Um and I think the upside is bound by the fact that we do have a lot of supply that kind of sits on the sidelines in Saudi Arabia, in the UAE, um that kind of buffers a potential supply shock. Now, if we lose, you know, Russian barrels, and Friday is obviously a huge event, um for the oil market in terms of what happens with the Putin-Trump meeting and if Trump decides to move forward with either sanctions on the shadow fleet or tariffs, you know, that could change the picture pretty dramatically. I think the upside is buffered by that spare capacity.
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