Latest news with #crudeoil
Forbes
7 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
Crude Oil ‘s Seasonal And Technical Outlook
NEW YORK - APRIL 7: Traders work in the oil futures pit at the New York Mercantile Exchange April ... More 7, 2005 in New York City. (Photo by) The NYMEX launched the West Texas Light Crude oil contract in 1983. Soon, their price action, as well as that of the T-Bond and gold futures became a regular part of my analytical routine. This led to instructional presentations for oil traders in Singapore and London. WTI is now traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) which provided a 40-year history. Many crude oil traders use fundamental data to measure supply and demand in order to forecast prices. In my technical approach, I look at the actual futures price data as well as the volume and open interest to determine where prices are heading. Crude Oil Monthly This monthly chart goes back to early 2021 as the monthly DTS (created by my colleague Jerry A) generated a buy signal (see arrow) in January 2021. Crude oil prices traded higher until peaking in June 2023 after a high of $123.68. Crude oil had spent several months above the starc+ band, so it was in a high-risk buy area. The monthly sell signal came in August (see arrow) and prices subsequently declined $25 before a low in May of 2023. The new monthly buy was generated in July 2023 as crude oil closed back above its 20- month EMA. The rally terminated three months later as it acted like a bear market rally as crude oil failed to overcome the 50% resistance at $93.82. In 2024, crude oil prices drifted lower, and then in April of 2025, WTI closed below the support line A, at $65.41. The three-month rally from the low at $55.12 peaked at $78.40 and briefly moved above the yearly pivot at $74.94 (in purple), but was not able to close above it, which kept the yearly trend negative On the bottom of the chart is the Aspray Insight indicator, a derivation of the relative performance, developed by Jerry A. This indicator has been in a downtrend since late 2023, indicating that WTI was going to be weaker than the S&P 500. So far in 2025, WTI is down 8.9% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 7.9%. Crude Oil Weekly This weekly chart shows that the recent WTI move above the yearly pivot at $74.94 (in purple) reached or exceeded the weekly starc+ band before it turned lower. Below the chart is plotted the Seasonal Trend, which is calculated using the WTI data since 1984. Based on this data, WTI prices typically bottom on December 13th and then typically will top out on July 4th. It has always been my approach that the Seasonal Trend analysis should only be followed when it agrees with the technical outlook. The negative monthly analysis of crude oil and the current signs of failing rallies in the Energy Select (XLE) and SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP) mean that August may be a tough month for oil prices and the oil stocks. A drop in crude oil or the energy ETFs below the July lows should confirm a new decline.
Zawya
8 hours ago
- Business
- Zawya
Oman oil price reaches $70.52 per barrel
MUSCAT: The official price of Oman oil for September delivery on Wednesday reached $70.52. The price of Oman oil decreased by 18 cents compared to Tuesday's price of $70.70. The monthly average price of Omani crude oil for July delivery reached $63.62 per barrel, a decrease of $4.25 compared to the price for June delivery. Meanwhile, international oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, as investors assessed trade developments including a US tariff deal with Japan ahead of a US stocks data announcement. Brent crude futures were down 50 cents, or 0.7%, at $68.05 a barrel as of 11:19 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 47 cents, or 0.7%, at $64.78 per barrel. Both benchmarks lost about 1% in the previous session after the EU said it was considering countermeasures against US tariffs. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US and Japan had struck a trade deal that included a 15% tariff on US imports from Japan. 'The slide (in prices) of the past three sessions appears to have abated but I don't expect much of an upward impetus from news of the US-Japan trade deal as the hurdles and delays being reported in talks with the EU and China will remain a drag on sentiment', said an analyst. — Agencies MUSCAT: The official price of Oman oil for September delivery on Wednesday reached $70.52. The price of Oman oil decreased by 18 cents compared to Tuesday's price of $70.70. The monthly average price of Omani crude oil for July delivery reached $63.62 per barrel, a decrease of $4.25 compared to the price for June delivery. Meanwhile, international oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, as investors assessed trade developments including a US tariff deal with Japan ahead of a US stocks data announcement. Brent crude futures were down 50 cents, or 0.7%, at $68.05 a barrel as of 11:19 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 47 cents, or 0.7%, at $64.78 per barrel. Both benchmarks lost about 1% in the previous session after the EU said it was considering countermeasures against US tariffs. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US and Japan had struck a trade deal that included a 15% tariff on US imports from Japan. 'The slide (in prices) of the past three sessions appears to have abated but I don't expect much of an upward impetus from news of the US-Japan trade deal as the hurdles and delays being reported in talks with the EU and China will remain a drag on sentiment', said an analyst. — Agencies
Yahoo
20 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Crude Prices Finish Slightly Lower on a Mixed EIA Inventory Report
September WTI crude oil (CLU25) on Wednesday closed down -0.06 (-0.09%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU25) closed up +0.0187 (+0.90%). Crude oil and gasoline prices settled mixed on Wednesday. A build in crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, for a third consecutive week, undercut oil prices. Losses in crude were contained, and gasoline prices rose after weekly EIA crude inventories and gasoline supplies fell more than expected. Also, Wednesday's decline in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 2-week low was supportive of energy prices. Additionally, the action by the US and Japan to agree on a trade agreement eases trade concerns and supports energy demand. More News from Barchart Array Technologies (ARRY) Just Flashed a Statistically Significant Reversal Signal for Options Traders Forecasts for Milder US Weather Weigh on Nat-Gas Prices Crude Oil Price Fall on Concern About Energy Demand Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! Wednesday's US economic news was negative for energy demand and crude prices after Jun existing home sales fell -2.7% m/m to a 9-month low of 3.93 million, weaker than expectations of -0.7% to 4.00 million. Weighing on crude is the outlook for Iraq to boost crude exports from its northern Kurdish region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, where oil exports have been halted since March 2023. The Iraqi government approved a plan for the semi-autonomous Kurdish region to resume oil exports. Kurdistan expects to supply Iraq's crude market with 230,000 bpd of crude once exports resume. Iraq is the second-largest oil producer in OPEC. Crude prices have carryover support from last Friday when the European Union approved fresh sanctions on Russian oil due to its aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions package includes cutting off 20 more Russian banks from the international payments system SWIFT, as well as restrictions imposed on Russian petroleum refined in other countries. A large oil refinery in India, part-owned by Russia's Rosneft PJSC, was also blacklisted. Additionally, 105 more ships in Russia's shadow fleet were sanctioned, pushing the number of sanctioned ships above 400. Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices. On July 5, OPEC+ agreed to raise its crude production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning August 1, exceeding expectations of a 411,000 bpd increase. Saudi Arabia also stated that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and penalize overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd increase in crude production for July, following the same 411,000 bpd hike for June. June crude production rose +360,000 bpd to a 1.5-year high of 28.10 million bpd. In a supportive factor for oil prices, Bloomberg reported on July 10 that OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, following its next monthly hike in September of 548,000 barrels. OPEC+ may be concerned about a slowdown in global oil demand in the second half of this year that could lead to a supply glut if the group keeps boosting production. The International Energy Agency said inventories have been accumulating at a rate of 1 million bpd and that the global crude oil market faces a surplus by Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption. A decrease in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -14% w/w to 66.31 million bbl in the week ended July 18. Wednesday's weekly EIA report was mixed for crude and products. On the negative side, EIA distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose +2.9 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.25 million bbl draw. Also, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose by +455,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude inventories fell -3.17 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of 1.5 million bbl. Also, EIA gasoline supplies fell -1.7 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of a -200,000 bbl draw. Wednesday's weekly EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 18 were -8.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +0.2% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -18.5% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 18 fell -0.8% w/w to 13.273 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending July 18 decreased by -2 rigs to a new 3.75-year low of 422 rigs. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.25-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. 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Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Crude Price Slip on a Mixed Weekly EIA Report
September WTI crude oil (CLU25) today is down -0.33 (-0.51%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU25) is up +0.0112 (+0.54%). Crude oil and gasoline prices today are mixed. Dollar strength today is undercutting energy prices. Also, today's weekly EIA report showing a build in crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, for a third consecutive week, is undercutting oil prices. Losses in crude are contained, and gasoline prices rose after weekly EIA crude inventories and gasoline supplies fell more than expected. Additionally, the action by the US and Japan to agree on a trade agreement eases trade concerns and supports energy demand. More News from Barchart Array Technologies (ARRY) Just Flashed a Statistically Significant Reversal Signal for Options Traders Forecasts for Milder US Weather Weigh on Nat-Gas Prices Crude Oil Price Fall on Concern About Energy Demand Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! Today's US economic news was negative for energy demand and crude prices after Jun existing home sales fell -2.7% m/m to a 9-month low of 3.93 million, weaker than expectations of -0.7% to 4.00 million. Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for crude prices after the crack spread fell to a 2-week low today. The weaker crack spread discourages refiners from purchasing crude oil to refine into gasoline and distillates. Weighing on crude is the outlook for Iraq to boost crude exports from its northern Kurdish region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, where oil exports have been halted since March 2023. The Iraqi government approved a plan for the semi-autonomous Kurdish region to resume oil exports. Kurdistan expects to supply Iraq's crude market with 230,000 bpd of crude once exports resume. Iraq is the second-largest oil producer in OPEC. Crude prices have carryover support from last Friday when the European Union approved fresh sanctions on Russian oil due to its aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions package includes cutting off 20 more Russian banks from the international payments system SWIFT, as well as restrictions imposed on Russian petroleum refined in other countries. A large oil refinery in India, part-owned by Russia's Rosneft PJSC, was also blacklisted. Additionally, 105 more ships in Russia's shadow fleet were sanctioned, pushing the number of sanctioned ships above 400. Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices. On July 5, OPEC+ agreed to raise its crude production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning August 1, exceeding expectations of a 411,000 bpd increase. Saudi Arabia also stated that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and penalize overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd increase in crude production for July, following the same 411,000 bpd hike for June. June crude production rose +360,000 bpd to a 1.5-year high of 28.10 million bpd. In a supportive factor for oil prices, Bloomberg reported on July 10 that OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, following its next monthly hike in September of 548,000 barrels. OPEC+ may be concerned about a slowdown in global oil demand in the second half of this year that could lead to a supply glut if the group keeps boosting production. The International Energy Agency said inventories have been accumulating at a rate of 1 million bpd and that the global crude oil market faces a surplus by Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption. A decrease in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -14% w/w to 66.31 million bbl in the week ended July 18. Today's weekly EIA report was mixed for crude and products. On the negative side, EIA distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose +2.9 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.25 million bbl draw. Also, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose by +455,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude inventories fell -3.17 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of 1.5 million bbl. Also, EIA gasoline supplies fell -1.7 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of a -200,000 bbl draw. Today's weekly EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 18 were -8.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +0.2% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -18.5% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 18 fell -0.8% w/w to 13.273 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending July 18 decreased by -2 rigs to a new 3.75-year low of 422 rigs. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.25-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. 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Reuters
a day ago
- Business
- Reuters
US crude, gasoline stockpiles fall, distillates build, EIA says
July 23 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week, buoyed by stronger demand and exports, while distillate stockpiles rose, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 419 million barrels in the week ended July 18, the EIA said, double analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.6 million-barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub (USOICC=ECI), opens new tab rose by 455,000 barrels in the week, the EIA said. U.S. crude exports were up by 337,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.86 million bpd, while net U.S. crude imports (USOICI=ECI), opens new tab fell last week by 740,000 barrels per day, the EIA said. Oil futures pared earlier losses following the larger-than-expected draw. Global benchmark Brent futures were trading at $68.18 a barrel, down 41 cents, by 11:06 a.m. EDT (1506 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 43 cents to $64.88 a barrel. Refinery crude runs (USOICR=ECI), opens new tab rose by 87,000 barrels per day, and refinery utilization rates (USOIRU=ECI), opens new tab rose by 1.6 percentage points to 95.5% of total capacity, its highest level since June 2023. Utilization rates in the Gulf Coast refinery hub hit a one-year high at 96.1%. Gasoline stocks (USOILG=ECI), opens new tab fell by 1.7 million barrels last week to 231.1 million barrels, the EIA said, also nearly double expectations for a 908,000-barrel draw. Product supplied of gasoline, a proxy for demand, rose by 478,000 bpd to 8.97 million bpd. The four-week average for product supplied was at 8.81 million bpd, versus 9.27 million bpd last year. "Gasoline demand posted a bit of a positive vibe in this report," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, while cautioning that demand numbers should still be higher for this time of year. "Gasoline demand during the summer driving season has to be at 9 million bpd for the market to really succeed," he added. Distillate stockpiles (USOILD=ECI), opens new tab, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.9 million barrels in the week to 109.9 million barrels, the data showed, versus forecasts for a 1.1 million-barrel drop. "The increase in the diesel supplies has eased some of the panic we've been seeing in the crack spread recently about tight supplies," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst with Price Futures Group.
