Latest news with #crudeoil
Zawya
4 hours ago
- Business
- Zawya
OPEC, IEA crude oil demand forecasts may be too cautious: Russell
(The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) LAUNCESTON, Australia - A key difference in crude oil demand forecasts between this year and 2024 is that both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are being far more cautious in their growth expectations. While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ group publicly maintain that strong demand and a tight market justify increasing oil output, the numbers in their monthly report are more circumspect. It is largely the same for the IEA, which forecast in its July monthly report that global crude demand will grow by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, the slowest pace since 2009. OPEC's July report is slightly more bullish, forecasting oil demand will increase by 1.29 million bpd in 2025, with 1.16 million bpd coming from countries outside the developed economies of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The forecasts from both the IEA and OPEC are now so cautious that they actually run the risk of being too pessimistic, especially in the top-importing region of Asia. This is in stark contrast to last year, when OPEC in particular was massively bullish in its demand forecasts even as Asia's crude oil imports were declining. There is, of course, a difference between demand forecasts and imports, but the level of seaborne imports is the key driver of crude prices, given it is this market, which accounts for about 40% of global daily oil demand, that sets the global prices. In its July 2024 monthly report OPEC forecast that Asia's non-OECD oil demand would rise by 1.34 million bpd in 2024, with China accounting for 760,000 bpd of this. However, Asia's crude imports actually declined in 2024, dropping by 370,000 bpd to 26.51 million bpd, according to data compiled by LSEG Oil Research. It was the first decline in Asia's oil imports since 2021, at a time when demand was hit by the lockdowns prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The gap between OPEC's bullish forecasts for much of 2024 and the reality of weak crude imports by Asia may have tempered the exporter group's forecasts for 2025. The question is whether they are now actually being too cautious. ASIA RECOVERY OPEC's July monthly report forecast that non-OECD Asia's oil demand will rise by 610,000 bpd in 2025, with China the main contributor at 210,000 and India, Asia's second-biggest crude importer, seeing an increase of 160,000 bpd. The IEA said in its July report that it expects China's total oil product demand to rise by 81,000 bpd in 2025, while India is expected to see a gain of 92,000 bpd. Total non-OECD Asia is forecast to see demand rise by 352,000 bpd. Both the OPEC and the IEA numbers seem modest, especially since Asia's crude imports actually saw relatively strong growth in the first half of 2025. Asia's imports in the first six months of the year were 27.25 million bpd, an increase of 510,000 bpd from the same period last year, according to calculations based on LSEG data. Imports increased in the second quarter, especially in China, as refiners took advantage of the weakening trend in oil prices that prevailed at the time cargoes were being arranged. It is likely that some of the increase in oil imports was used to build inventories, a process that may extend into the second half if oil prices remain soft as OPEC+ increases output amid the economic uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump's ongoing global trade war. If there is one lesson to be learnt from the difference between this year's circumspect oil demand forecasts and last year's buoyant estimates, it is that price plays a far bigger role in demand, especially in Asia. Part of the reason Asia's crude imports fell short of forecasts in 2024 was because prices remained elevated for much of the year, reaching above $92 a barrel in April and only briefly dropping below $70 in September. This year, prices have been softer, with benchmark Brent futures peaking at just over $82 a barrel in January, and trading as low as $58.50 in May. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Crude Oil Price Fall on Concern About Energy Demand
August WTI crude oil (CLQ25) on Tuesday closed down -0.99 (-1.47%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ25) closed down -0.0300 (-1.41%). Crude oil and gasoline retreated for a second session Tuesday, with gasoline dropping to a 2-week low. Crude oil prices are being undercut by concern that President Trump's tariff policies will lead to slower global economic growth and reduced energy demand. President Trump recently said that reciprocal tariffs will increase on August 1 for countries that have not clinched trade deals with the US. Tuesday's slide in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 1.5-week low helped to limit losses in crude oil prices. More News from Barchart Nat-Gas Prices Sink on the Outlook for Cooler US Temps and Higher Gas Production Crude Oil Prices Pressured by Concerns of Oversupply Crude Oil Prices Slip on Concerns of a Mounting Global Oil Supply Glut Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Tuesday's global economic news was negative for energy demand and crude prices. The US July Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -12 points to an 11-month low of -20, weaker than expectations of an increase to -2. Also, the ECB's quarterly Bank Lending Survey stated that loan demand in the Eurozone remained weak in Q2. Weighing on crude is the outlook for Iraq to boost crude exports from its northern Kurdish region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, where oil exports have been halted since March 2023. The Iraqi government approved a plan for the semi-autonomous Kurdish region to resume oil exports. Kurdistan expects to supply Iraq's crude market with 230,000 bpd of crude once exports resume. Iraq is the second-largest oil producer in OPEC. Crude prices have carryover support from last Friday when the European Union approved fresh sanctions on Russian oil due to its aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions package includes cutting off 20 more Russian banks from the international payments system SWIFT, as well as restrictions imposed on Russian petroleum refined in other countries. A large oil refinery in India, part-owned by Russia's Rosneft PJSC, was also blacklisted. Additionally, 105 more ships in Russia's shadow fleet were sanctioned, pushing the number of sanctioned ships above 400. Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices. On July 5, OPEC+ agreed to raise its crude production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning August 1, exceeding expectations of a 411,000 bpd increase. Saudi Arabia also stated that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and penalize overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd increase in crude production for July, following the same 411,000 bpd hike for June. June crude production rose +360,000 bpd to a 1.5-year high of 28.10 million bpd. In a supportive factor for oil prices, Bloomberg reported on July 10 that OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, following its next monthly hike in September of 548,000 barrels. OPEC+ may be concerned about a slowdown in global oil demand in the second half of this year that could lead to a supply glut if the group keeps boosting production. The International Energy Agency said inventories have been accumulating at a rate of 1 million bpd and that the global crude oil market faces a surplus by Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption. A decrease in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -14% w/w to 66.31 million bbl in the week ended July 18. The consensus is that Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories will decrease by 1.5 million barrels, and gasoline supplies will decrease by 200,000 barrels. Last Wednesday's weekly EIA report showed that US crude inventories in the week ended July 11 fell by -3.859 million bbls, the first draw in three weeks. Gasoline inventories rose by +3.399 million bbls, and distillate inventories rose by +4.173 million bbls. The EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 11 were -8.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -21.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 11 fell -0.1% w/w to 13.375 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending July 18 decreased by -2 rigs to a new 3.75-year low of 422 rigs. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.25-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CBC
11 hours ago
- Politics
- CBC
Coastal First Nations in B.C. issue open letter to Carney opposing suggested northern pipeline
Coastal First Nations in British Columbia have issued an open letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney, asking him to reject any new proposal for a crude oil pipeline to the northwest coast. The move comes as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith pushes for a new private-sector pipeline that would send crude oil to the northern B.C. coast for export to Asia. Marilyn Slett, president of the Coastal First Nations-Great Bear Initiative, says in a statement that there is no pipeline or oil tanker project that would be acceptable to their group, and any proposal to send crude oil through their coastal waters is a "non-starter." The group is asking Carney to uphold the 2019 Oil Tanker Moratorium Act, which prohibits oil tankers carrying more than 12,500 metric tons of crude from stopping, loading or unloading at ports or marine installations along the North Coast. It says the act is Canada's recognition of more than 50 years of effort to protect the North Pacific coast, which includes the Great Bear Rainforest and Haida Gwaii, from the risks of an oil spill. The nations say they have not changed their stance since oil tankers were banned from their territorial waters in 2010 based on ancestral laws, rights and responsibilities. The group says the North Pacific coast has one of the richest and most productive cold-water marine ecosystems on Earth, and it remains a source of sustenance, culture, and livelihood for coastal communities and all B.C. residents. The group has instead suggested the prime minister meet with them to "better understand the credible ecological treasure that is the North Pacific coast." The letter comes less than a week after Carney met hundreds of First Nations chiefs, where he faced resistance to the Building Canada Act, which allows the government to fast-track major projects that it deems to be in the national interest, including by sidestepping existing laws. A news release from the Prime Minister's Office after he met with premiers in Ontario, says Carney will "continue meeting with key stakeholders over the coming weeks to ensure big projects are built in full partnership with First Nations, Inuit, and Métis, and to build one Canadian economy." B.C. Premier David Eby told media after the meeting that "for the pipeline project that Premier Smith is a great enthusiast of, a heavy oil pipeline project, there is no project, there is no proponent, there is no private sector money involved at all that I'm aware of." Eby says that his government is focused on projects with proponents who are ready to go and have passed an environmental assessment. "When Premier Smith crosses those obvious hurdles to get a project done, then let's have those conversations. But to be blunt, we have major projects that are moving ahead, and that's where our focus is."
Yahoo
13 hours ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
B.C. Coastal First Nations issue open letter to Carney opposing suggested pipeline
VANCOUVER — Coastal First Nations in British Columbia have issued an open letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney, asking him to reject any new proposal for a crude oil pipeline to the northwest coast. The move comes as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith pushes for a new private-sector pipeline that would send crude oil to the northern B.C. coast for export to Asia. Marilyn Slett, president of the Coastal First Nations-Great Bear Initiative, says in a news release that there is no pipeline or oil tanker project that would be acceptable to their group, and any proposal to send crude oil through their coastal waters is a "non-starter." The group is asking Carney to uphold the 2019 Oil Tanker Moratorium Act, which prohibits oil tankers carrying more than 12,500 metric tons of crude from stopping, loading or unloading at ports or marine installations along the north coast. It says the act is Canada's recognition of more than 50 years of effort to protect the north Pacific coast, which includes the Great Bear Rainforest and Haida Gwaii, from the risks of an oil spill. The nations say they have not changed their stance since oil tankers were banned from their territorial waters in 2010 based on ancestral laws, rights and responsibilities. The group says the north Pacific coast has one of the richest and most productive cold-water marine ecosystems on Earth, and it remains a source of sustenance, culture, and livelihood for coastal communities and all B.C. residents. The group has instead suggested the prime minister meet with them to "better understand the credible ecological treasure that is the north Pacific coast." The letter comes less than a week after Carney met hundreds of First Nations chiefs, where he faced resistance to the Building Canada Act, which allows the government to fast track major projects that it deems to be in the national interest, including by sidestepping existing laws. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 22, 2025. Brieanna Charlebois, The Canadian Press Sign in to access your portfolio
Reuters
16 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
US became net exporter of crude to Nigeria for the first time, EIA says
July 22 (Reuters) - The United States became a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria in February and March, as crude demand on the U.S. East Coast slowed due to refinery maintenance and the Dangote refinery drove up Nigeria's demand for inputs, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a note on Tuesday. This is the first time that the U.S. has exported more crude oil to Nigeria than it imported. Nigeria is generally considered a source for U.S. crude oil imports, ranking ninth last year. Nigeria's Dangote oil refinery – the largest in Africa, located on the outskirts of Lagos – began processing crude in January 2024 after years of delays. The refinery is set to reach full capacity of 650,000 b/d this year, according to the EIA. Gross U.S. exports of crude to Nigeria touched 111,000 b/d in February and 169,000 b/d in March. Imports, which were at 133,000 b/d in January, dropped to 54,000 b/d and 72,000 b/d in February and March respectively. The decline in imports is largely due to maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery New Jersey, per the EIA. However, imports increased later in the year as the Bayway refinery resumed normal operations in April, and Dangote underwent some unplanned maintenance. This trend seems more a snapshot of a very fluid market, rather than a permanent realignment, according to Eli Tesfaye, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. "The new refinery in Nigeria and some issues in securing domestic supplies played a role for those unique flows earlier this year. But going forward, with the refinery now aiming to secure domestic flows, and probably looking at other crude grades, it is difficult to forecast if the volume flowing from the U.S. to Nigeria will persist," agreed Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.
