Crude Oil ‘s Seasonal And Technical Outlook
The NYMEX launched the West Texas Light Crude oil contract in 1983. Soon, their price action, as well as that of the T-Bond and gold futures became a regular part of my analytical routine. This led to instructional presentations for oil traders in Singapore and London. WTI is now traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) which provided a 40-year history.
Many crude oil traders use fundamental data to measure supply and demand in order to forecast prices. In my technical approach, I look at the actual futures price data as well as the volume and open interest to determine where prices are heading.
Crude Oil Monthly
This monthly chart goes back to early 2021 as the monthly DTS (created by my colleague Jerry A) generated a buy signal (see arrow) in January 2021. Crude oil prices traded higher until peaking in June 2023 after a high of $123.68. Crude oil had spent several months above the starc+ band, so it was in a high-risk buy area.
The monthly sell signal came in August (see arrow) and prices subsequently declined $25 before a low in May of 2023. The new monthly buy was generated in July 2023 as crude oil closed back above its 20- month EMA. The rally terminated three months later as it acted like a bear market rally as crude oil failed to overcome the 50% resistance at $93.82.
In 2024, crude oil prices drifted lower, and then in April of 2025, WTI closed below the support line A, at $65.41. The three-month rally from the low at $55.12 peaked at $78.40 and briefly moved above the yearly pivot at $74.94 (in purple), but was not able to close above it, which kept the yearly trend negative
On the bottom of the chart is the Aspray Insight indicator, a derivation of the relative performance, developed by Jerry A. This indicator has been in a downtrend since late 2023, indicating that WTI was going to be weaker than the S&P 500. So far in 2025, WTI is down 8.9% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 7.9%.
Crude Oil Weekly
This weekly chart shows that the recent WTI move above the yearly pivot at $74.94 (in purple) reached or exceeded the weekly starc+ band before it turned lower. Below the chart is plotted the Seasonal Trend, which is calculated using the WTI data since 1984. Based on this data, WTI prices typically bottom on December 13th and then typically will top out on July 4th.
It has always been my approach that the Seasonal Trend analysis should only be followed when it agrees with the technical outlook. The negative monthly analysis of crude oil and the current signs of failing rallies in the Energy Select (XLE) and SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP) mean that August may be a tough month for oil prices and the oil stocks. A drop in crude oil or the energy ETFs below the July lows should confirm a new decline.
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