Latest news with #Reform-friendly
The National
01-07-2025
- Politics
- The National
The simple Ipsos poll change that could be significant for independence
That's far more than a dry technical point, because in recent years the unusual Ipsos methodology has produced much better results for both independence and the SNP than most online polls. However, Ipsos hasn't switched wholesale to the methods of rival polling firms, and has instead adopted a hybrid approach of recruiting potential respondents offline, and then interviewing them online. The new poll therefore can't be directly compared to any previous results from any firm, and it will be a major relief for leading figures in the SNP and the Greens that the numbers do not, at least for the most part, represent a radical departure from past Ipsos polling. The 52% to 48% lead for Yes on the independence question is in fact a marginal improvement on the position shown by the Ipsos poll just over a year ago during the General Election campaign. It's true that there have been far more impressive results for Yes in other Ipsos polls over the years, but nevertheless the new poll offers grounds for optimism that the revised Ipsos methodology will continue to produce more favourable independence numbers than are typically seen from long-standing online firms such as Survation and YouGov, both of which showed a No lead in their most recent polls. READ MORE: Minister responds to claims of 'Iranian Scottish independence X accounts' Part of the reason for this ongoing contrast may be that most other pollsters differ from Ipsos in that they insist on weighting their results according to how respondents say they voted in the 2014 independence referendum – a practice that after such a long period of time carries the increasing risk of results being distorted by false recall. The SNP's 31% vote share in Westminster voting intentions is firmly within their normal range of between 30% and 34% shown in recent months across all polling firms. However, the 22% share for Labour is the second-highest showing for Keir Starmer's party since February, while Reform UK's 16% is markedly lower than the 21% reported by both Survation and Norstat in May. So it may be that the new Ipsos methodology will be a touch more Labour-friendly, and less Reform-friendly, than conventional online polling. That would make intuitive sense, because Reform supporters are perhaps disproportionately likely to be politically engaged and to sign up for volunteer polling panels. The Ipsos approach of recruiting panellists offline could produce a more realistic measure of where Reform truly stand with the Scottish public. READ MORE: Labour MP Joani Reid caught out on 'didn't support welfare cuts' claim It's a similar story in voting intentions for next year's Holyrood election, with the SNP's vote share of 34% on the constituency ballot mirroring other recent polls, but with their 11-point lead over Labour being less overwhelming than the leads recently reported by Survation and Norstat, due to a higher Labour vote and a lower Reform vote. A more significant cause for concern for John Swinney will be his party's 26% share on the list ballot, which is the second-lowest reported by any pollster this year. That may not matter much if the SNP's double-digit lead in the constituencies is maintained, but the voting system will start to skew heavily in Labour's favour if the lead contracts to low single digits. In that scenario, the SNP might need to win lots of list seats simply to remain the largest party in the Scottish Parliament – and on 26% of the list vote they probably wouldn't be winning enough.
Yahoo
06-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Starmer will pay a heavy price for his efforts to fight off Reform
Next week's spending review should go better for the Chancellor than widely expected – at least, in the short term. The Treasury communications plan would normally build up to the big day by focussing on things that might get lost in the moment. So if they can pre-announce an extra £1bn for free school meals and £16bn for transport projects, that suggests there is even more good news up Rachel Reeves's sleeve. I suspect there will be reasons enough for Labour MPs to cheer on Wednesday. Together with the about-turn on the winter fuel allowance, however messy that may be, I'm sure this will get the Chancellor through the week. The reasoning for the winter fuel change is on display in Scotland. Labour won a surprise by-election victory in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, snatching the Scottish Parliament seat from the SNP. Not only that, but it managed to see off the threat of Reform, which surged into third place in the constituency. The real challenge will come in the autumn. Not least because the bill for this good news will have to be paid. Voters may not then be as grateful as they might be next week when they see their taxes go up thanks to the Government's botched attempt to reform the welfare system. So these short-term wins will quickly evaporate and simply store up more political trouble for the future. With other headwinds going against the Government, Reeves may need to find anywhere between an extra £10bn and £30bn in the next Budget. The Chancellor refused four times to rule out more tax rises this year when questioned at the CBI annual dinner this week, suggesting this is exactly what she is contemplating. Aside from the economic damage this will do, tax rises of this magnitude will have serious political implications. First of all, it will further exacerbate Reform's overall appeal. With a general election so far away, it doesn't really matter that Reform's numbers don't add up. People like what they are saying about tax cuts funded by spending less on net zero and diversity initiatives. With Labour poised to announce more money for net zero, Reform will argue it gives them even more cash with which to fund tax cuts. Any tax rise will therefore make this dividing line even starker. Given the scale of revenue needed, it looks increasingly likely that the Chancellor may have to break her manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, National Insurance or value added tax (VAT), as well as keeping corporation tax at or below 25pc. Some rises are politically more damaging than others. Faced with a choice of which promise to break, which is the most Reform-friendly option? Given that many of Reform's voters are on the economic Left, measures that hit lower-income, working people seem unlikely. So I think we can rule out income tax or National Insurance rises. Likewise, VAT. This was one of the many tax rises that seemed to always appear on Treasury scorecards ahead of each fiscal event I was involved in. It is straightforward and raises serious revenue, with each additional percentage point resulting in around £8bn of extra tax income. George Osborne increased the standard rate of VAT to 20pc, which didn't stop the Conservatives from winning a majority at the next general election. He hadn't promised not to do so, though – and I cannot see how this Government could target people's pockets when its main measure for economic growth is supposed to be real household disposable income. With inflation also expected to stay around 3pc for the rest of this year, anything that pushes prices up in the short term makes little sense. Which leaves one major tax that Labour promised to leave untouched, but that no one is really talking about: corporation tax. For the avoidance of doubt I think it would be a terrible mistake to increase it. It would be the final nail in the coffin of the Government's relationship with 'big business', send a dreadful signal to international investors and represent the end of Reeves's already-crumbling growth narrative. But if you compare it to the alternatives, I can see why Sir Keir Starmer and his Chancellor may go for it. For a start, it would be popular, even populist. Every Treasury commissioned opinion poll and focus group that I saw found overwhelming support for increasing tax on big business. It also passes the PM's payslip test and wouldn't directly hit working people in the pocket. It is lucrative too. Every percentage point increase would raise around £4bn a year. You could therefore get most, if not all the revenue you need, from one measure, avoiding the need to fight on many fronts. Whichever tax rise they do pick, expect the Chancellor to blame 'international events'. They will no doubt be helped somewhat by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which will (rightly) take into account the impact of increased global tariffs on GDP. Whether this negative hit is sufficient to mask the impact of the actions the Government itself has taken, we will see. By the autumn, the Government will be in damage-limitation territory. With Reform continuing to ride high in the polls, they may be tempted to find the money they need from big business rather than working people, regardless of the economic consequences. But the general election is a long way off and Starmer risks paying a heavy price if decisions he takes now to boost Labour's standing fail to sustain momentum by the time it comes around. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Epoch Times
02-05-2025
- Politics
- Epoch Times
Reform Party Election Surge Signals Sea Change in British Politics
The Reform UK party under Nigel Farage has just seized its first by-election victory in a former Labour stronghold and has made huge gains in local elections, foreshadowing seismic shifts in English politics. On May 2, in a by-election triggered by Labour MP Mike Amesbury's March resignation following his Runcorn is a typical Northern England constituency, a once-thriving bastion of working-class loyalty now in decline, where long-standing support for the incumbent Labour Party has drained. Voters are tilting toward Farage's upstart movement that is steaming ahead of the two establishment parties, Labour and the Conservatives. They have dominated two-party British politics for more than a century. Voters across England also headed to the booths to vote for four regional mayors and 1,750 councilors on May 1. Related Stories 2/1/2025 2/27/2025 As of Friday afternoon, Reform has also won an avalanche of council seats, including control of Staffordshire County Council and Durham County Council. The BBC reported that as of mid-Friday, it had won In the United Kingdom, Regional mayors are more Andrea Jenkyns, a former Conservative minister who defected to Reform after losing her seat last year, became Reform was founded in 2021 as the successor to the Brexit Party, itself formed as a spin-off of the UKIP party after Farage resigned from that organization in 2018. After a break from front-line politics, Farage—a longtime supporter of U.S. President Donald Trump and a GB News presenter—joined Reform as its leader only last year, ahead of the general election in July. 'It's been a huge night for Reform,' Farage He said that the Conservatives, historically one of the most successful parties of any modern democracy, were now 'toast.' 'You're witnessing the end of a party that's been around since 1832,' he said. Reform still holds five seats in the 650-member House of Commons, having won more than 4 million votes at the last general election. In the British Under the proportional representation used in countries such as Israel, Reform's share of the national vote would have theoretically converted into a larger number of seats. Popular former Reform MP Rupert Lowe lost the party whip in March amid bullying allegations, which he denies. However, the total remains at five after the Pochin win. Academic, writer, and pollster Matthew Goodwin told The Epoch Times, 'This is a huge, huge result for Reform, which signals the beginning of a much bigger political earthquake.' He added that winning Runcorn and Helsby, which he characterised as the '155th most Reform-friendly seat in the country,' meant that they can win much more. Goodwin has 'They can win dozens and dozens of mainly Labour-held seats' across England and into Wales, he said. 'It also marks a continuation of the post-Brexit realignment, which the Conservatives squandered after 2019 by imposing mass uncontrolled immigration.' Pollsters In 'We've essentially gone 17 years without meaningful growth, meaningful average wage rises. It's not surprising that people are getting fed up at the same time we've got crumbling public services,' he said. Menon also said that if the economy were working properly, people would be less concerned about immigration.
The Guardian
02-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
What have we learned so far from England's local elections and byelection?
A series of elections took place across England on Thursday, with the results starting to come in. It can seem a confusing picture, but some clear lessons are already emerging. The spine of Thursday's contests were elections for representatives on 24 local councils of various types across England. Such local elections take place in four-yearly cycles, with different councils holding votes each year. Also taking place were elections for six regional mayors, and a one-off election for a House of Commons constituency, Runcorn and Helsby in the north-west of England, called because the sitting Labour MP resigned after being convicted of punching someone. Most of the council results have yet to be declared, but the early results show – as predicted – a big surge in support for Nigel Farage's rightwing populist Reform UK party, which took the Runcorn seat by just six votes; a disappointing night for Keir Starmer's Labour; a collapse in support for the main opposition Conservatives; and early signs of gains for the smaller Liberal Democrats and Greens. The big takeaway is still tentative but seems to be twofold. The first side is that Reform is, as national polling has said for some time, performing at a high level, and in the results so far has often exceeded the 25% or so support seen in polls. The other is more evidence of an atomisation in English (and UK) politics, moving further away from the longstanding duopoly of Labour and the Conservatives. Reform is now seeking to position itself as the main rightwing challenger to Labour, supplanting the Conservatives, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens are also gaining support. There are a few. The first is that we have been here before – several times – including with Farage. In 2014 (when he led the UK Independence party, or Ukip) and 2019 (when he ran the Brexit party), he came first in elections for UK representatives to the European parliament. Both times there was much talk of a fracturing in British politics, but followed by general elections in which Labour and the Conservatives won the bulk of parliamentary seats. Another note of caution is that the early results were always expected to be the most Reform-friendly, and that as council counts are completed other narratives will emerge, for example the Lib Dems eating further into Conservative heartlands. Finally, it is still potentially more than four years till the next general election, and a huge amount could happen in UK and global politics over that time to change things. All that said, there is strong evidence that traditional party loyalties have broken down. Farage will aim to use the results as a springboard towards supplanting the Conservatives and, he hopes, winning the next election. There are, however, a lot of obstacles ahead, not least the basic campaigning machine of his still-new party, and the distorting effect of the UK's first past the post electoral system. Reform will also now face the challenge of running councils and mayoralties, being judged not just on its rhetoric but its record. It also faces the ongoing ructions from the departure of Rupert Lowe, one of five Reform MPs elected last July, who has bitterly fallen out with Farage and is suing him for defamation. Labour MPs are already arguing what they can learn from the results, with some believing the party needs to counter Reform's rise with stronger words and policies on areas such as immigration, with others more worried about an apparent ebb of progressive voters towards the Greens and, in some cases, the Lib Dems. For Conservatives, the expected rout of councillors will place more pressure on their new-ish leader, Kemi Badenoch, who is seen as having performed poorly since she took over late last year. She is, however, unlikely to face any formal challenge until at least next year's local elections, not least because her party's chaotic churn of four prime ministers in five years was seen as one of the reasons behind their awful performance in last year's general election.
New European
18-03-2025
- Politics
- New European
Lord Ashcroft's questionable new poll
The former Tory chairman and Brexiteer Lord Ashcroft, who now sees himself as a chaos agent in British politics, is at it again. Best known for his pre-referendum book that reported untrue claims that Remain supporter David Cameron had performed a sex act with the head of a dead pig, Ashcroft's latest wheeze is a poll ahead of the Runcorn and Helsby by-election that shows Reform about to take the seat with a nine-point lead on Labour. But experts are asking why Ashcroft's poll seems to underrepresent areas where Labour might be expected to perform strongly and overrepresent those where Reform seems strongest. The social media channel Britain Elects said: 'The flaw in the Lord Ashcroft poll is it undersamples (after weighting) the least Reform-friendly parts of the seat by 21pts. And oversamples the most by 20pts. The Gowy villages & Helsby make up 22% of the seat's electorate. But only 1% of the poll's sample.'
