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Politico
4 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
How Democrats could gerrymander New York
With help from Amira McKee WHAT COULD BE ON TAP FOR 2028: There's never been a full-fledged partisan gerrymander on the books for New York's congressional districts. Democrats and Republicans have split power in Albany during most modern redistricting cycles. When they didn't in 2024, the lines drawn by Democrats after a series of court battles were nowhere near as aggressive as some partisans hoped. Gov. Kathy Hochul now wants to change that in response to similar Republican efforts in Texas. Redrawing the lines would be complicated in the Empire State. It couldn't happen until 2028 at the earliest, and even then, it could only move forward if voters approve a constitutional amendment to permit a mid-decade gerrymander. But that begs a big question: What would an all-out New York gerrymander look like? The political realities of 2028 are tough to predict. Some incumbents will be gone by then, and political shifts could come to various pockets of the state. And if President Donald Trump has his way, a new Census could throw the current mapmaking calculus out the window. But as things stand now, at least two Republicans have reason to fret, and maybe as many as four. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis has topped 60 percent in the past two elections. Her district currently encompasses Staten Island and merges it with portions of Brooklyn mostly to the east of the Verrazzano Bridge, most of them Republican-friendly. In 2022, Democrats wanted to extend the district further north into Brooklyn to include portions of the left-leaning enclave of Park Slope. Enacting such a plan would turn the district into a battleground. A more aggressive approach — harkening back to a map used in the 1970s — would merge Staten Island with parts of Manhattan. In Westchester, Democratic Rep. George Latimer has a lot of breathing room — he received 72 percent of the vote in 2024. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler doesn't — he received 52 percent. There are towns, such as the ones immediately south of the Tappan Zee, that could be swapped from Latimer's district to Lawler's, growing the number of Democrats in the Republican's seat. The four Congressional seats on Long Island are currently split between Democratic Reps. Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi and Republican Reps. Nick LaLota and Andrew Garbarino. 'You could pull Suozzi's district more into the city. You could pull Gillen's district more into Gregory Meeks' territory,' Hofstra University's Larry Levy said, referring to the Queens Congress member. That would allow for some portions of the Suozzi and Gillen districts to be merged with the Democratic strongholds currently situated in Republican districts: 'You probably could make either Garbarino or LaLota more vulnerable, but not both,' Levy said. In the western half of upstate, Democratic Rep. Tim Kennedy and Republican Reps. Claudia Tenney and Nick Langworthy each received around 65 percent of the vote in 2024. Democratic Rep. Joe Morelle got 60 percent. There might be a path to joining slices of the Kennedy and Morelle seats with Democratic-friendly towns like Geneva and Oswego, allowing the Tenney district to become a bit more competitive. But there's not much to work with. 'Kennedy and Morelle are kind of islands of Democrats in a sea of Republicans,' one Buffalo Democrat said. With that in mind, the end result might just be jeopardizing two Democrats without actually making the Tenney seat winnable. — Bill Mahoney FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL MAMDANI TURNS UP PRESSURE: Zohran Mamdani sought to press his advantage today among Democrats who have yet to support him by leveraging a New York Times report that rival Andrew Cuomo and President Donald Trump have discussed the mayoral race. 'My administration will be Donald Trump's worst nightmare,' Mamdani declared, predicting his policies to boost working-class New Yorkers would show how Trump has failed those communities. The Democratic nominee for mayor accused Cuomo of 'conspiring' with Trump. He spoke to reporters in Lower Manhattan outside 26 Federal Plaza, where federal immigration agents have been detaining migrants outside of court. Mamdani, who defeated Cuomo by 12 points in the June primary, stood with the leaders of labor unions that have endorsed him after previously backing Cuomo. 'We know that Andrew Cuomo will sell working people out for his interests, for the interests of the billionaires that support him, for the interests of Donald Trump,' Mamdani said, 'because all of those interests are lining up as one and the same.' Cuomo, who's running an independent general election bid, told reporters in Midtown Manhattan that he doesn't remember the last time he spoke with Trump and knocked the story as 'palace intrigue.' The former governor said he did 'leave word' with the president after an assasination attempt. 'I've never spoken to him about the mayor's race,' Cuomo said, denying the Times report. 'I had spoken to him when I was governor dozens and dozens, if not hundreds of times. We went through Covid together.' Cuomo told reporters he would defend New York City against Trump 'with every ounce of my strength.' The Times additionally reported today that Cuomo has told business leaders he's not 'personally' looking for a fight with the president. In Brooklyn, Mayor Eric Adams, who's also running as an independent, said he's never discussed the campaign with Trump and that his 'conversations with the president is about bringing resources to the city.' Mamdani told reporters today that he's willing to talk with Trump and keep an open dialogue but only to improve the lives of New Yorkers. 'If he wants to actually act upon the cheaper groceries that he told us he would deliver, that is a different conversation,' the candidate said. — Emily Ngo, Joe Anuta and Amira McKee 'LOOK ON THE HAT': The first borough office of Adams' uphill reelection campaign is borrowing the headquarters of one of Brooklyn's old-guard political clubs. The self-titled 'child from Brownsville' cut the ribbon at his new Mill Basin office Thursday, announcing that the Thomas Jefferson Democratic Club headquarters — now plastered with 're-elect Eric for Mayor' posters — will serve as the nerve center for the campaign's Brooklyn efforts. 'Why Brooklyn?' Adams said at the Thursday event, gesturing to his cap. 'Brooklyn is the place I was born. When you look on the hat, it says Brownsville. It was the place that shaped and made me. It was the place that taught me the fortitude that I have right now to lead this city.' Adams' team said today it expects to unveil more offices across the five boroughs — just a day after the New York City Campaign Finance board denied the incumbent millions of dollars in public matching funds, putting him at a weighty financial disadvantage against Mamdani. This isn't the first time Adams has encountered trouble with the CFB, whose public matching fund program requires strict adherence to reporting mandates and individual donation limits. A 900-page CFB audit of Adams' 2021 campaign found more than 150 fundraising events that the Adams campaign said they paid for but did not document how much was spent and by whom — a red flag for potentially prohibited in-kind contributions. The campaign declined to address those irregularities in its official response. POLITICO reported in 2021 that Adams also intermittently used office space occupied by the Democratic Party's law firm without disclosing the relationship in campaign finance filings. When asked about how much his campaign was spending to rent the home of one of New York's oldest and most influential Democratic clubs, Adams shrugged. 'Every payment we do is listed on the campaign finance so you can look at that,' he said. Despite the CFB denying his funding request for the tenth time yesterday, Adams said he was unfazed, dodging questions about whether he would shake up his campaign staff or forgo the matching program to accept larger donations. 'The life of a person born in Brownsville, you're always meeting obstacles,' Adams said, again gesturing to his cap. 'But in all those obstacles, what happened? I'm the mayor, because I'm a working class, resilient, hard working New Yorker, and we're used to obstacles.' — Amira McKee From City Hall DEPARTMENT OF WISHFUL THINKING: City Hall is asking agencies to contribute ideas for Mayor Eric Adams' 2026 State of the City address — a request that assumes the mayor will win reelection despite poll numbers suggesting otherwise. On Wednesday, Deputy Mayor for Communications Fabien Levy blasted out a message encouraging agencies to submit ideas for the theoretical address by Aug. 11, according to a copy of the missive obtained by Playbook. The request comes as Adams, who is running as an independent, remains a longshot contender for a second term. The incumbent is running as an independent in an overwhelmingly Democratic town. The Campaign Finance Board appears determined to deny him millions of dollars in public matching funds. And the latest poll had the mayor winning just 7 percent of the vote, coming in behind Mamdani, Cuomo and GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa. Regardless, Levy is bullish on the mayor's odds. 'New York City's public servants are at their best when putting politics aside and staying focused on the work — and that is exactly what we are doing,' he said in a statement. 'The State of the City takes months of thoughtful planning, and we intend to deliver a speech in early 2026 that is as groundbreaking as ever.' Despite the aura of futility, some municipal workers are treating the exercise as a job preservation strategy, according to one city employee who was granted anonymity to discuss internal thinking. Should Mamdani win the general election, as polling currently indicates, senior staffers would have a readymade plan to pitch to the new administration and prove their worth. 'Zohran's people are going to gravitate to those who have an agenda that aligns with his populism,' another city staffer, also granted anonymity, told Playbook. Levy is convinced there will be no changing of the guard. 'We have appreciated POLITICO's coverage of our past four State of the City addresses, and we look forward to their continued coverage of Mayor Adams' next four,' he said in his statement. — Joe Anuta IN OTHER NEWS — MEGABILL CUTS: New York's social service providers are bracing for deep federal funding cuts as poverty rates rise among the state's elderly. (New York Focus) — ANOTHER LAWSUIT: A former top NYPD lawyer is suing the department, accusing top brass of firing her for investigating Adams' former Chief of Department Jeffrey Maddrey. (Gothamist) — SLOW DOWN: New York City has instituted a new e-bike speed limit, but local officials don't have the teeth to enforce it. (The Wall Street Journal) Missed this morning's New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
NDTV
5 days ago
- Politics
- NDTV
Republicans, Democrats Go To 'War' Over US Election Map
Donald Trump is pulling hard on the levers of power to strengthen Republicans through redistricting in Texas and other states -- the latest offensive in escalating moves by both sides to shape the battlefield of US democracy for the midterm elections. The president's efforts have lit a fuse in multiple states, triggering a high-stakes tussle over election law that could upend what is expected to be a fierce fight for control of the House of Representatives in 2026. Partisan redistricting -- or gerrymandering -- operates under a principle that has become known as "packing and cracking." Officials redrawing the districts in any given state "pack" opposition voters together so that they win big in a tiny number of districts. Then they "crack" the rest more thinly across the remaining districts to ensure losses there. It isn't inherently illegal at the federal level unless electoral districts are redrawn along racial lines and both parties have been guilty of excessive manipulation to maximize their vote. "I'd be happy to outlaw gerrymandering," Democratic strategist Mike Nellis, a former top aide to 2024 presidential candidate Kamala Harris, posted on X. "I think it's ridiculous for politicians to draw their own maps, but I'm not for unilateral disarmament when Republicans are trying to rig the midterms." Redistricting typically happens once a decade after the census, but lawmakers have increasingly been inclined to break with that tradition. While Trump coasted to victory in 2024, his success wasn't contagious, and his party was left clinging to the House by a threadbare 219-212 margin. Historically, the party in the White House loses ground in midterms, and Trump's team knows the clock is ticking. To tighten his grip, the president has leaned on Texas to redraw its congressional map to create five new Republican-friendly seats. But Trump and his party are not stopping with the Lone Star State, according to US media. Republicans in Missouri and Ohio are planning their own redistricting to boost their representation in Washington, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has made noises about addressing the "raw deal" conservatives got in the last Sunshine State redistricting round. Democratic counteroffensives Meanwhile, Democratic governors are preparing their own counteroffensives. In California, Gavin Newsom has floated a potential special election to redraw the map -- a dramatic reversal in a state where redistricting power has belonged to an independent commission since the 2010s. In Illinois, JB Pritzker recently hosted a delegation of Texas Democrats to talk strategy. And in New York, Kathy Hochul hinted at a redistricting push of her own, telling a Buffalo crowd, "If other states are violating the rules, I'm going to look at it closely." Gerrymandering is hardly a new phenomenon in US elections, but the latest escalation has sparked fears of what Hochul cast as a nationwide partisan "war." Opponents say gerrymandering entrenches politicians, pushes candidates toward ideological extremes and erodes public trust in the democratic process. It is also a risky business, and even the best-laid maps can collapse under the shifting ground of demographic changes and political overreach that tends to spark a legal backlash. The term "gerrymandering" dates back to 1812, when Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry approved a salamander-shaped district that sparked the term. As the salamander digs in for 21st century elections, the consequences are more far-reaching. According to the Cook Political Report, just one in 16 House seats were competitive in 2024 -- 12 held by Democrats and 15 held by Republicans, out of a total of 435. Democrats believe Trump's latest push may have crossed a legal line by coordinating with local Texas officials, citing the president's July 15 comment that with "just a simple redrawing, we pick up five seats." They also point to reports that senior Trump aides met with Texas Republicans to finalize plans. But Daron Shaw, a politics professor at the University of Texas, said it was "curious" to blame Trump for the problem, given that deeply Democratic California is the country's most "egregious gerrymander." Liberal Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts were also at fault, he told AFP. "It's especially kind of rich coming from people in California and Illinois that have gerrymander significantly more egregious than exists in Texas," he added.
Politico
7 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Hochul embraces gerrymandering in New York
The redistricting skirmish in New York is one front in a much larger battle nationwide. Aside from Texas and New York, California, Ohio and Missouri are also considering similar changes to gain a political advantage ahead of next year's midterm elections, which will determine which party controls the House and how President Donald Trump will implement his agenda. It also comes as Hochul is increasingly being drawn into the national spotlight. Over the weekend, she publicly feuded with Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz on social media over his criticism that she wore a headscarf at a Muslim NYPD officer's funeral. Hochul's reelection run next year coincides with the midterm elections. The redistricting effort she's pushing in New York could open the door to a new set of maps that give Democrats an edge in 22 of the state's 26 congressional districts by 2028. They won 19 of the 26 seats in 2024. The six Texas Democrats who stood with her Monday morning fled the state to block a quorum for a planned redistricting vote. That plan would create five new Republican-friendly congressional districts. Hochul has embraced changing New York's process since the fight over the Lone Star State maps escalated last month. Other Democrats have gone along as well: New York lawmakers introduced a state constitutional amendment last week that would let Democrats make mid-decade adjustments to their maps before the 2028 election cycle.
Yahoo
31-07-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Redistricting war underscores growing power of state legislatures
The brewing war over redistricting is underscoring the increasing importance of state legislatures heading into the midterms. Texas Republicans unveiled a new set of proposed House lines on Wednesday that create five additional Republican-friendly districts ahead of 2026. Legislators in other states, including New York and Maryland, are similarly beginning to take measures into their own hands amid the redistricting tit for tat. The broader turmoil over changing congressional lines is putting a fresh spotlight on state legislatures' ability to shape federal politics, though some experts say national donors still need to pay more attention to local races. 'So local races and state House races, state Senate races, have always mattered,' said Republican strategist Jimmy Keady, who's worked on state legislative races. 'They're just becoming more important in the long run, because now they're directly influencing representation that is happening in the federal space. And I think the smart candidates are talking about that,' he added. Texas Republicans finally issued their proposal for a new House map, which will have major implications for lawmakers representing areas near Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston and the southern border. The Texas GOP currently holds 25 seats, while Democrats hold 12. One other seat, represented by former Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), awaits a replacement in a special election this November after his death in March. The new map would add five House seats that voted for President Trump by double digits on Election Day last year, increasing the possibility Republicans increase their majority in the congressional delegation to 30 House members. While the map is not set in stone, the larger redistricting process playing out in the Lone Star State has prompted other states — both red and blue — to consider doing middecade redistricting in response. More importantly, the broader battle over redrawing House maps is underscoring that state legislative elections can impact issues of national importance, including federal races. Mandara Meyers, executive director of The States Project, noted how Democrats narrowly lost key state House races in their bid to flip nine seats to gain a Democratic majority in the lower chamber in 2020. 'So little attention is paid to these state legislative races, and so few votes can make a difference — not just in winning or losing a single election, but in control of an entire legislative chamber,' she said. To be sure, state legislatures have been receiving growing attention for some time as they've become the epicenter over battles on issues such as election certification, school choice and abortion access. While Republicans have been focused on state legislative races — particularly during the 2010 cycle with their REDMAP program, which saw key GOP gains downballot in statehouses — Democrats have struggled to match their Republican counterparts in terms of attention and fundraising to these critical races. Even though Democrats have started to outperform in special elections, including in red states like Alabama and Iowa, several Democratic-aligned groups focused on state legislative elections said they've heard little interest from donors about the races, even amid the redistricting battle. 'A little bit,' Forward Majority CEO Leslie Martes told The Hill when asked if she had been hearing more from donors who were more interested in contributing, given the redistricting news. 'One of our problems is that state legislative resources are further down the list for donors, that they want to fund federal work first,' she said, noting 'the lack of dedicated funders for this work' is a problem. Mandara Meyers, executive director of The States Project, suggested a similar dynamic was playing out with her group. 'When we look at the issues that impact people's daily lives, we believe state legislators are the most important policymakers in the country, and yet again, much of the focus from donors, from the media, tends to be at the national level,' she said. 'So we are not seeing the kind of shift that we would like to see towards the importance of states.' In a memo released earlier this month by Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, she pointed out that there would be consequences for the party if Democrats continued to prioritize federal races at the expense of downballot ones. She specifically pointed to redistricting as one reason why members of the party needed to start paying attention to state legislative races, noting 'Democrats are still digging themselves out of the hole we found ourselves in after the GOP executed their $30 million REDMAP strategy that gained them 20 legislative chamber majorities and the ability to unilaterally draw over 340 congressional districts.' 'To have a shot at winning and maintaining a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives moving forward, Democrats must reassess our failed federal-first strategy and get serious about winning state legislatures ahead of redistricting — not just in the final months of 2030,' she said, 'but starting now.' Some Republican groups are similarly invoking redistricting as reason for their party to continue paying attention to the key downballot elections. 'The only way to halt the Democrats' relentless efforts to manipulate district lines is to win state legislative races cycle after cycle,' Mason Di Palma, spokesperson for the Republican State Leadership Committee, said in a statement, knocking Democrats for both advocating for redistricting commissions while also pushing for new map lines middecade in response to Texas. Despite the attention redistricting has received nationally, that issue isn't necessarily playing out in all states. Redistricting is particularly tricky for more evenly divided legislatures such as Minnesota and Pennsylvania. A Minnesota Senate Republican spokesperson told The Hill in an email that they couldn't 'comment on any campaign activity, including donor conversations' but noted of the state's maps that they 'have not been contested or discussed as needing change.' The Minnesota House has a 67-66 Republican edge, with Democrats looking to fill a vacancy after the assassination of former House DFL Leader Melissa Hortman. The state House has a power-sharing agreement between the two parties but a Republican speaker. The state Senate has a 33-32 Democratic edge and two vacancies. Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Leader Jay Costa (D) similarly told The Hill that 'it's not being discussed as much' on the legislative side. The state Senate has a 27-23 GOP edge, while Democrats hold a 102-101 majority in the state House. 'The bigger issue is holding onto the majority,' he said, referring to the state Supreme Court majority and its retention races this year, 'and making sure Gov. [Josh] Shapiro gets reelected, which — I think he's the ultimate backstop in that regard on redistricting.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
31-07-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Redistricting war underscores growing power of state legislatures
The brewing war over redistricting is underscoring the increasing importance of state legislatures heading into the midterms. Texas Republicans unveiled a new set of proposed House lines on Wednesday, creating five more Republican-friendly districts ahead of 2026. Legislators in states like New York and Maryland are similarly beginning to take measures into their own hands amid the redistricting tit-for-tat. The broader turmoil over changing congressional lines is putting a fresh spotlight on state legislatures' ability to shape federal politics, though some experts say national donors still need to pay more attention to local races. 'So local races and state House races, state Senate races have always mattered,' said Republican strategist Jimmy Keady, who's worked on state legislative races. 'They're just becoming more important in the long run, because now they're directly influencing representation that is happening in the federal space. And I think the smart candidates are talking about that,' he added. Texas Republicans finally issued their proposal for a new House map, which will have major implications for lawmakers representing areas near Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston and the southern border. The Texas GOP currently holds 25 seats while Democrats hold 12. One other seat, represented by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), awaits a replacement in a special election this November. The new map would add five House seats that would have gone for President Trump by double digits, increasing the possibility Republicans increase their majority in the congressional delegation to 30 House members. While the map is not set in stone, the larger redistricting process playing out in the Lone Star State has prompted other states — both red and blue — to consider doing mid-decade redistricting in response. More importantly, the broader battle over redrawing House maps is underscoring that state legislative elections can impact issues of national importance, including federal races. Mandara Meyers, executive director of The States Project, noted how Democrats narrowly lost key state House races in their bid to flip nine seats to gain a Democratic majority in the lower chamber in 2020. 'So little attention is paid to these state legislative races, and so few votes can make a difference, not just in winning or losing a single election, but in control of an entire legislative chamber,' she said. To be sure, state legislatures have been receiving growing attention for some time as they've become the epicenter over battles on issues like election certification, school choice and abortion access. While Republicans have been focused on state legislative races — particularly during the 2010 cycle with their REDMAP program, which saw key GOP gains down ballot in state houses — Democrats have struggled to match their Republican counterparts in terms of attention and fundraising to these critical races. Even though Democrats have started to outperform in special elections, including in states like Alabama and Iowa, several Democratic-aligned groups focused on state legislative elections said they've heard little interest from donors about the races, even amid the redistricting battle. 'A little bit,' Forward Majority CEO Leslie Martes told The Hill when asked if she had been hearing more from donors who were more interested in contributing given the redistricting news. 'One of our problems is that state legislative resources are further down the list for donors, that they want to fund federal work first,' she said, noting that 'the lack of dedicated funders for this work' is a problem. Mandara Meyers, executive director of The States Project, suggested a similar dynamic was playing out with her group. 'When we look at the issues that impact people's daily lives, we believe state legislators are the most important policymakers in the country, and yet again, much of the focus from donors, from the media, tends to be at the national level,' she said. 'So we are not seeing the kind of shift that we would like to see towards the importance of states.' In a memo released earlier this month by Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), she pointed out that there would be consequences for the party if Democrats continued to prioritize federal races at the expense of down-ballot ones. She specifically pointed to redistricting as one reason why members of the party needed to start paying attention to state legislative races, noting 'Democrats are still digging themselves out of the hole we found ourselves in after the GOP executed their $30 million REDMAP strategy that gained them 20 legislative chamber majorities and the ability to unilaterally draw over 340 congressional districts.' 'To have a shot at winning and maintaining a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives moving forward, Democrats must reassess our failed federal-first strategy and get serious about winning state legislatures ahead of redistricting — not just in the final months of 2030,' she said, 'but starting now.' Some Republican groups are similarly invoking redistricting as reason for their party to continue paying attention to the key down ballot elections. 'The only way to halt the Democrats' relentless efforts to manipulate district lines is to win state legislative races cycle after cycle,' said Mason Di Palma, spokesman for the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC), in a statement, knocking Democrats for both advocating for redistricting commissions while also pushing for new map lines mid-decade in response to Texas. Despite the attention redistricting has received nationally, that issue isn't necessarily playing out in all states. Redistricting is particularly tricky for more evenly divided legislatures like Minnesota and Pennsylvania. A Minnesota Senate Republican spokesperson told The Hill in an email that they couldn't 'comment on any campaign activity, including donor conversations' but noted of the state's maps that they 'have not been contested or discussed as needing change.' 2024 Election Coverage The Minnesota House has a 67-66 edge, with Democrats looking to fill a vacancy after the assassination of former House DFL Leader Melissa Hortman. The state House has a power-sharing agreement between the two parties but a Republican speaker. The state Senate has two vacancies right now but has a slight 33-32 Democratic edge. Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Leader Jay Costa (D) similarly told The Hill that 'it's not being discussed as much' on the legislative side. The state Senate has a 27-23 GOP edge while Democrats hold a narrow 102-101 majority in the state House. 'The bigger issue is holding onto the majority,' he said, referring to the state Supreme Court majority and its retention races this year, 'and making sure Gov. Shapiro gets reelected, which I think he's the ultimate backstop in that regard on redistricting.'
