How Democrats could gerrymander New York

Politico

4 days ago

With help from Amira McKee
WHAT COULD BE ON TAP FOR 2028: There's never been a full-fledged partisan gerrymander on the books for New York's congressional districts.
Democrats and Republicans have split power in Albany during most modern redistricting cycles. When they didn't in 2024, the lines drawn by Democrats after a series of court battles were nowhere near as aggressive as some partisans hoped.
Gov. Kathy Hochul now wants to change that in response to similar Republican efforts in Texas.
Redrawing the lines would be complicated in the Empire State. It couldn't happen until 2028 at the earliest, and even then, it could only move forward if voters approve a constitutional amendment to permit a mid-decade gerrymander.
But that begs a big question: What would an all-out New York gerrymander look like? The political realities of 2028 are tough to predict. Some incumbents will be gone by then, and political shifts could come to various pockets of the state. And if President Donald Trump has his way, a new Census could throw the current mapmaking calculus out the window. But as things stand now, at least two Republicans have reason to fret, and maybe as many as four.
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis has topped 60 percent in the past two elections. Her district currently encompasses Staten Island and merges it with portions of Brooklyn mostly to the east of the Verrazzano Bridge, most of them Republican-friendly.
In 2022, Democrats wanted to extend the district further north into Brooklyn to include portions of the left-leaning enclave of Park Slope. Enacting such a plan would turn the district into a battleground. A more aggressive approach — harkening back to a map used in the 1970s — would merge Staten Island with parts of Manhattan.
In Westchester, Democratic Rep. George Latimer has a lot of breathing room — he received 72 percent of the vote in 2024. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler doesn't — he received 52 percent. There are towns, such as the ones immediately south of the Tappan Zee, that could be swapped from Latimer's district to Lawler's, growing the number of Democrats in the Republican's seat.
The four Congressional seats on Long Island are currently split between Democratic Reps. Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi and Republican Reps. Nick LaLota and Andrew Garbarino.
'You could pull Suozzi's district more into the city. You could pull Gillen's district more into Gregory Meeks' territory,' Hofstra University's Larry Levy said, referring to the Queens Congress member.
That would allow for some portions of the Suozzi and Gillen districts to be merged with the Democratic strongholds currently situated in Republican districts: 'You probably could make either Garbarino or LaLota more vulnerable, but not both,' Levy said.
In the western half of upstate, Democratic Rep. Tim Kennedy and Republican Reps. Claudia Tenney and Nick Langworthy each received around 65 percent of the vote in 2024. Democratic Rep. Joe Morelle got 60 percent.
There might be a path to joining slices of the Kennedy and Morelle seats with Democratic-friendly towns like Geneva and Oswego, allowing the Tenney district to become a bit more competitive.
But there's not much to work with.
'Kennedy and Morelle are kind of islands of Democrats in a sea of Republicans,' one Buffalo Democrat said. With that in mind, the end result might just be jeopardizing two Democrats without actually making the Tenney seat winnable. — Bill Mahoney
FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
MAMDANI TURNS UP PRESSURE: Zohran Mamdani sought to press his advantage today among Democrats who have yet to support him by leveraging a New York Times report that rival Andrew Cuomo and President Donald Trump have discussed the mayoral race.
'My administration will be Donald Trump's worst nightmare,' Mamdani declared, predicting his policies to boost working-class New Yorkers would show how Trump has failed those communities.
The Democratic nominee for mayor accused Cuomo of 'conspiring' with Trump. He spoke to reporters in Lower Manhattan outside 26 Federal Plaza, where federal immigration agents have been detaining migrants outside of court. Mamdani, who defeated Cuomo by 12 points in the June primary, stood with the leaders of labor unions that have endorsed him after previously backing Cuomo.
'We know that Andrew Cuomo will sell working people out for his interests, for the interests of the billionaires that support him, for the interests of Donald Trump,' Mamdani said, 'because all of those interests are lining up as one and the same.'
Cuomo, who's running an independent general election bid, told reporters in Midtown Manhattan that he doesn't remember the last time he spoke with Trump and knocked the story as 'palace intrigue.' The former governor said he did 'leave word' with the president after an assasination attempt.
'I've never spoken to him about the mayor's race,' Cuomo said, denying the Times report. 'I had spoken to him when I was governor dozens and dozens, if not hundreds of times. We went through Covid together.'
Cuomo told reporters he would defend New York City against Trump 'with every ounce of my strength.'
The Times additionally reported today that Cuomo has told business leaders he's not 'personally' looking for a fight with the president.
In Brooklyn, Mayor Eric Adams, who's also running as an independent, said he's never discussed the campaign with Trump and that his 'conversations with the president is about bringing resources to the city.'
Mamdani told reporters today that he's willing to talk with Trump and keep an open dialogue but only to improve the lives of New Yorkers.
'If he wants to actually act upon the cheaper groceries that he told us he would deliver, that is a different conversation,' the candidate said. — Emily Ngo, Joe Anuta and Amira McKee
'LOOK ON THE HAT': The first borough office of Adams' uphill reelection campaign is borrowing the headquarters of one of Brooklyn's old-guard political clubs.
The self-titled 'child from Brownsville' cut the ribbon at his new Mill Basin office Thursday, announcing that the Thomas Jefferson Democratic Club headquarters — now plastered with 're-elect Eric for Mayor' posters — will serve as the nerve center for the campaign's Brooklyn efforts.
'Why Brooklyn?' Adams said at the Thursday event, gesturing to his cap. 'Brooklyn is the place I was born. When you look on the hat, it says Brownsville. It was the place that shaped and made me. It was the place that taught me the fortitude that I have right now to lead this city.'
Adams' team said today it expects to unveil more offices across the five boroughs — just a day after the New York City Campaign Finance board denied the incumbent millions of dollars in public matching funds, putting him at a weighty financial disadvantage against Mamdani.
This isn't the first time Adams has encountered trouble with the CFB, whose public matching fund program requires strict adherence to reporting mandates and individual donation limits.
A 900-page CFB audit of Adams' 2021 campaign found more than 150 fundraising events that the Adams campaign said they paid for but did not document how much was spent and by whom — a red flag for potentially prohibited in-kind contributions. The campaign declined to address those irregularities in its official response.
POLITICO reported in 2021 that Adams also intermittently used office space occupied by the Democratic Party's law firm without disclosing the relationship in campaign finance filings.
When asked about how much his campaign was spending to rent the home of one of New York's oldest and most influential Democratic clubs, Adams shrugged. 'Every payment we do is listed on the campaign finance so you can look at that,' he said.
Despite the CFB denying his funding request for the tenth time yesterday, Adams said he was unfazed, dodging questions about whether he would shake up his campaign staff or forgo the matching program to accept larger donations.
'The life of a person born in Brownsville, you're always meeting obstacles,' Adams said, again gesturing to his cap. 'But in all those obstacles, what happened? I'm the mayor, because I'm a working class, resilient, hard working New Yorker, and we're used to obstacles.' — Amira McKee
From City Hall
DEPARTMENT OF WISHFUL THINKING: City Hall is asking agencies to contribute ideas for Mayor Eric Adams' 2026 State of the City address — a request that assumes the mayor will win reelection despite poll numbers suggesting otherwise.
On Wednesday, Deputy Mayor for Communications Fabien Levy blasted out a message encouraging agencies to submit ideas for the theoretical address by Aug. 11, according to a copy of the missive obtained by Playbook.
The request comes as Adams, who is running as an independent, remains a longshot contender for a second term.
The incumbent is running as an independent in an overwhelmingly Democratic town. The Campaign Finance Board appears determined to deny him millions of dollars in public matching funds. And the latest poll had the mayor winning just 7 percent of the vote, coming in behind Mamdani, Cuomo and GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa.
Regardless, Levy is bullish on the mayor's odds.
'New York City's public servants are at their best when putting politics aside and staying focused on the work — and that is exactly what we are doing,' he said in a statement. 'The State of the City takes months of thoughtful planning, and we intend to deliver a speech in early 2026 that is as groundbreaking as ever.'
Despite the aura of futility, some municipal workers are treating the exercise as a job preservation strategy, according to one city employee who was granted anonymity to discuss internal thinking. Should Mamdani win the general election, as polling currently indicates, senior staffers would have a readymade plan to pitch to the new administration and prove their worth.
'Zohran's people are going to gravitate to those who have an agenda that aligns with his populism,' another city staffer, also granted anonymity, told Playbook.
Levy is convinced there will be no changing of the guard.
'We have appreciated POLITICO's coverage of our past four State of the City addresses, and we look forward to their continued coverage of Mayor Adams' next four,' he said in his statement. — Joe Anuta
IN OTHER NEWS
— MEGABILL CUTS: New York's social service providers are bracing for deep federal funding cuts as poverty rates rise among the state's elderly. (New York Focus)
— ANOTHER LAWSUIT: A former top NYPD lawyer is suing the department, accusing top brass of firing her for investigating Adams' former Chief of Department Jeffrey Maddrey. (Gothamist)
— SLOW DOWN: New York City has instituted a new e-bike speed limit, but local officials don't have the teeth to enforce it. (The Wall Street Journal)
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