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Newsweek
03-06-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Florida's Housing Market 'Turning Down Fast'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Florida housing market is "turning down fast," according to real estate analyst Nick Gerli, as sellers are increasingly offering reluctant buyers dramatic price cuts to convince them to close a purchase. Gerli, founder and CEO of real-estate platform Reventure, shared on X, formerly Twitter, late last month, a Zillow listing of a home in Saint Petersburg, Florida, which was bought by an investor in 2022—the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic homebuying frenzy—for a staggering $550,000 and sold again in late March for a much more reasonable $391,000. "Twenty-eight percent loss in three years," Gerli wrote in his post. Why It Matters The Sunshine State's housing market exploded during the pandemic, when the rise of remote work enabled many out-of-state movers to relocate to more affordable parts of the country offering a better quality of life than the country's busiest metropolises. The newcomers rapidly increased demand as well as prices across Florida, investors flocked to the state chasing what at the time seemed like sure-fire opportunities, and builders received authorization for building thousands of new homes to keep up with buyers. But Florida's once red-hot housing market started showing signs of a significant cooldown over the past year, as domestic migration shrank compared to the pandemic boom, housing costs rose sharply, and the threat of more frequent, more severe natural disasters and higher home insurance premiums swayed some buyers away from the state. The result is that prices have started to drop across much of the state, as historically high mortgage rates are still putting a significant damper on demand, despite growing inventory giving buyers more options. The median sale price of a home in Florida in April, according to Redfin, was $409,900, down 3.2 percent from a year earlier. Home sales were down 8.8 percent from April 2024, at 33,667. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty What To Know Gerli pointed at a home listing in Saint Petersburg as a glaring example of the dynamics unfolding in the state. The property, a three-bedroom home built in 1960 and sitting on 1,703 square feet of land, is estimated by Zillow to be worth about $386,800, having risen in value by 157 percent in the past 10 years. According to the property's price history, the home was sold in July 1999 for $93,000 and then again in December 2021 for $255,000. At the peak of the pandemic homebuying frenzy, in March 2022, it was listed for sale for $499,900, but the listing was later removed. The property was listed and sold again in April 2022 for an even higher price tag—$550,000—to a Blackstone-owned entity, according to Gerli. The new owner then listed it for sale again in February 2024 for a lower price, $529,000 and then offered four different price cuts in the following months. The listing was removed and reposted several times, until the home was sold on March 21, 2025 for $391,000—a drop of nearly $160,000 from the amount it fetched in 2022. "The house sat on the market for a year, and they incrementally lowered the price until finally it sold," Gerli said. According to the analyst, there was no clear issue with the property. "This does not appear to be a hurricane-damaged property, as they had already cut the price down to $431K (22-percent loss from purchase) before the hurricanes hit," he wrote on X. "After the hurricane hit, the price went down another $40K (7 percent)." For Gerli, the fate of this home in Saint Petersburg shows what can happen when investors get involved in a market, contributing to its overheating and then its downturn. "Investors had a huge impact in driving the Florida real estate bubble during the pandemic boom years of 2020 and 2021," he told Newsweek. Gerli added: "In markets like Jacksonville and Orlando, investor purchases nearly doubled from the pre-pandemic norm. Since then, they have collapsed by 50-60 percent from peak, leaving a gaping hole in the market. Many investors are now also electing to sell, particularly big Wall Street Investors, because the economics of owning real estate in Florida no longer make sense due to stagnating rents and skyrocketing insurance costs." On X, he wrote: "Imagine being a neighbor on this street, and getting excited about how much the value of your neighborhood was increasing. Only to now look at the new sales comp, and realize that the marginal buyer is now paying 28 percent less than three years ago. This is what investors do. Make the boom bigger on the way up, but the crash bigger on the way down." According to Gerli, investors are backing out of Florida for three main reasons—including high interest rates, rising housing costs and falling rents. "Higher interest rates significantly increased the cost of capital for investors, who almost always use debt to finance their acquisitions. Higher debt costs mean it's difficult to earn cash flow, making owning real estate a less attractive option," he said. "Second are the costs of holding real estate in Florida. Both property tax and insurance rates have skyrocketed in Florida over the last three years, further hurting investor margins and lowering the incentive to buy," he added. Gerli continued: "Third is the rental market. Rents in many areas of Florida are now dropping on a year-over-year basis, which makes the whole thesis of owning cash-flow driven real estate hard to justify, especially in market that is in a bubble like Florida. Many investors see this as their last chance to sell out before the prices and rents drop further." What Happens Next According to Gerli and most housing experts who talked with Newsweek, what is happening in Florida is the natural correction that you would expect to follow years of overheating. Many locals in the Sunshine State have been priced out of the market in recent years, and without investors buying up properties, demand has naturally come down. Investors backing off the market could exacerbate these dynamics, accelerating downward pressure on prices and forcing other sellers to slash prices to sell their homes. "Investors rushing to the exits is already destabilizing the market in Florida and making the downturn worse," Gerli told Newsweek. "In some neighborhoods around Tampa and St. Petersburg, there are examples of investors selling houses at 20-25 percent losses from their purchase price in 2022. These sales are now entering the comps and significantly lowering the values of homes in the surrounding area."
Newsweek
29-05-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Housing Market Expert Sees 'Alarming' Trend
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. A real estate analyst has sounded the alarm about a new trend that could weaken housing markets across the United States. "The collapse in investor demand in the U.S. Housing Market is alarming," Nick Gerli, the CEO of the Reventure app, wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "In a market like Atlanta, investors are buying 65% fewer homes than they did at the peak of the pandemic." In the markets affected by fewer investor purchases, housing inventory and supply are skyrocketing. This can cause home values to drop in many of the markets on a month-to-month basis, Gerli said. Why It Matters Monthly home values have already dropped in 27 out of the 50 states this year, according to Zillow. While Florida, Colorado, Washington, D.C., California, and Washington state experienced the greatest value declines from March to April, the data could foreshadow a larger shift in the housing market. Investor buying could play a significant role in determining home prices, depending on the market, and sellers may soon find themselves in a challenging situation. What To Know Beyond Atlanta, Gerli said investors are abandoning other markets, including Jacksonville, Phoenix, Charlotte, Nashville, Miami and Denver. While Jacksonville saw investors buying down by 63 percent, Charlotte experienced a 61 percent decline, and Nashville saw a similar 59 percent decline. "The issue with investors in the housing market is that they tend to 'amplify' whatever the current market trends are," Gerli said. "If there is a bubble, investors will make the bubble bigger, bringing in external capital into a local housing market that should be dependent on local buyers. "Meanwhile, in a crash or downturn, investors tend to make the situation worse. Leaving the market in droves before the crash gets worse." A real estate sign in front of a house for sale in West Los Angeles on November 20, 2020. A real estate sign in front of a house for sale in West Los Angeles on November 20, 2020. CHRIS DELMAS/AFP via Getty Images Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, has seen this trend in his market region of Fort Worth, Texas. "There were multiple homes purchased during the new build process by an investment group, and they have been left vacant for months," Thompson told Newsweek. "We are starting to see renters come back in as of now, but those places were vacant for at least six months which can be a large cash outlay for those companies. They were even trying to sell the properties outright, yet the market is just so tight at the moment." What People Are Saying Nick Gerli, the CEO of the Reventure app, wrote on X: "Home values in many of these markets boomed during the pandemic, as a result of the huge spike in investor demand. So what happens to home values when this demand goes away, and when these investors sell? I believe we're starting to see the answer." Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: "While lower demand from investors in some housing markets may be seen as a worrying sign, it actually could be a good thing for potential buyers in the coming months and years. Less demand for housing from the portfolios of some investors will equate to more availability, particularly in markets like Atlanta, Jacksonville, and others that have seen a substantial decline." Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of told Newsweek: "When I see headlines calling this 'alarming,' I'm for who exactly? For the investment firms that got caught holding overpriced assets when the music stopped? Or for my oldest son, who might finally be able to afford a home? "It's not a crisis, it's a housing market correction that's been a long time coming. And frankly, it can't happen fast enough." What Happens Next While a lack or reduction in investor demand may be a key factor in a potential housing crash, homebuyers are likely to benefit from the trend in the coming months, Beene said. "While in the past less investor demand has assisted in housing crashes going deeper, pricing remains strong, as most sellers and builders are offering smaller discounts instead of dramatically dropping prices," Beene said.
Newsweek
20-05-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Map Shows Home Values Dropping in Half the Country as Housing Market Shifts
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Home values shot down in half the country as the housing market faces a nationwide downturn. According to Zillow, monthly home values dropped in 27 out of the 50 states this year. While Florida, Colorado, Washington, D.C., California and Washington state experienced the greatest value declines from March to April, the data could foreshadow a larger housing market shift. Why It Matters The low inventory in the U.S. housing market has pushed prices upward in recent years. But as markets across the country now note an uptick in inventory, home values are coming down. Still, many potential homebuyers have been priced out of the market due to historically high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. What To Know The Zillow data revealed that real estate prices were shifting downward in more than just a few markets. While the post-pandemic era brought lower prices to Texas and Florida markets due to higher inventory and lower demand, home values across the country reflect a shifting market. Behind Florida, Colorado, Washington, D.C., California and Washington state, which saw the most notable decreases in value this past year, were Arizona, Louisiana, West Virginia, Texas and Georgia. These states saw as much as 0.37 percent decreases in home values, while Florida saw the worst value loss at 0.55 percent. "The broadening of this housing decline suggests there's a shift occurring in the U.S. Housing Market right now," Nick Gerli, founder and CEO of the real estate Reventure app, wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday. "Inventory is starting to rise in most parts of the country, and sellers are beginning to wake up to the fact that prices are overvalued, and they need to cut." Even states like California, where home prices have historically been some of the highest and demand continues to surge, experienced some course correction in home values. While values are up 1.3 percent over the last year, California home prices dropped 0.42 percent in the last month alone. "I think this data holds key implications for housing market analysts, homebuyers, and investors in 2025," Gerli said. "The question isn't becoming 'if' prices will drop. But rather: where the drops are occurring. And by how much." A "For Sale" sign is displayed in front of a home on February 22, 2023, in Miami. A "For Sale" sign is displayed in front of a home on February 22, 2023, in People Are Saying Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek: "Housing prices have declined due to their rapid rise after the pandemic. The economic shift from migration out of the West to now, a slowing of that same migration and overbuilding in places like Austin, TX, is now seeing an equilibrium shift downward. The median cost of homes rose sharply coming out of the pandemic, and that rise was unsustainable." Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst with told Newsweek: "This summer's housing market is expected to display familiar seasonal patterns, such as increased home sales and rising prices, but overall activity may remain subdued as buyers contend with elevated housing costs and lingering economic uncertainty. In regions like the South, where inventory is more abundant, these conditions could entice some buyers to enter the market." "Still, persistently high mortgage rates mean affordability remains top of mind, and many shoppers will be looking for more bang for their buck. Builders have pivoted toward offering smaller, more affordable homes and a range of incentives to entice buyers, but this strategy may be tested if the cost of construction inputs continues to rise." Michael Ryan, finance expert and founder of told Newsweek: "It's fascinating how we've gone from "your home is worth what?!" to "reality check" territory now. The housing market isn't crashing dramatically, more like it's finally coming back down to earth from a sugar high." Nationwide title and escrow expert Alan Chang told Newsweek: "For the last few years, I have been saying that property values have been at an unsustainable growth trajectory. It appears that portions of the market have started to correct themselves. I also believe that sellers are starting to ask a more realistic sales price as they see time on market being longer than what was seen a year or two ago. I don't see this as a housing crash like some have, but more of a normalization of the market." Alex Beene, financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: "Over the past two years, we've seen a major shift in the housing markets of certain cities and states that enjoyed a significant increase in purchases during the pandemic. As people have relocated due to "back to office" decisions, we've seen an exodus from some of those locations. Subsequently, the high prices and interest rates of homes are keeping many potential buyers out of the marketplace. It's a bad combination of factors that are causing housing values to trend downward, even if we have yet to see that impact in home sale values and declining interest rates." What Happens Next While many analysts believe interest rates are the housing market's main problem today, Thompson said prices of homes play a larger role in improving the market. "It is the cost of the homes that remains the issue and prices need to correct to make it more affordable for new buyers. I expect prices to continue to fall while rates remain higher, reaching a level where buyers and sellers can come to a good price in the future," Thompson said. "The timing of that is still up in the air, but it will definitely happen as all markets tend to correct where demand and supply meet." Some markets will continue seeing price drops while others are still growing, Ryan said. "It's not a one-size-fits-all story anymore," Ryan said. "Here in most of Florida, Texas, and Arizona are seeing bigger corrections while places like Charlotte, Denver, and even Miami are still posting gains." Still, on a larger scale, buyers will likely have more choices and "less frantic competition," Ryan said. "And for sellers? Gone are the days when you could slap any old price on your house and expect a bidding war," Ryan said. "Pricing right from the start is crucial now. Overpriced listings are just sitting there collecting dust."
Newsweek
11-05-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
South Florida Homes for Sale Quadruple As Residents Leave En Masse
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. South Florida's housing market is undergoing a sharp reversal as the number of homes for sale climbs to its highest level in nearly a decade—quadrupling since 2022, figures show. Real estate analysts say the surge is driven by a drop in demand and a wave of homeowners deciding to sell amid rising costs and stagnant affordability. Why It Matters Florida's housing market is beginning to undergo what experts describe as a correction, as growing inventory and weakening demand start to ease the effects of years of overheated growth. South Florida, home to many of the state's aging condominiums, has also been grappling with the effects of new building safety legislation enacted after the deadly collapse of Surfside's Champlain Tower South in 2021. The law mandates that condo associations carry out regular inspections and maintain sufficient reserves to cover essential repairs and maintenance. An overhead image shows a neighborhood community in Miami, Florida. An overhead image shows a neighborhood community in Miami, To Know There were nearly 52,000 active home listings across South Florida's tricounty area in April, the South Florida Sun Sentinel reported, citing to data from real estate analytics tool Reventure. That figure represents an almost fourfold increase from 2022, when listings dropped to just 12,825 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic migration boom. A surge of new residents moved to South Florida during that time but this has since tapered off, further reducing demand for properties. This is one of three main factors contributing to the increase in home listings, according to Nick Gerli, founder and CEO of Reventure: locals being priced out, fewer people relocating to the area and many current homeowners deciding to sell, the South Florida Sun Sentinel reported. Gerli added that many homeowners across Florida, not just in South Florida, are opting to sell their properties due to rising costs associated with homeowner association fees and property insurance rates. "It's kind of like this perfect storm now," he said, per the publication. Newsweek previously reported that many residents now appear to be "looking to escape" Florida, describing the state as having become "a victim of its own success," according to Cotality, formerly known as CoreLogic. What People Are Saying Nick Gerli said that the typical household in Miami-Dade, Broward or Palm Beach counties likely earns a median annual income ranging between $70,000 and $80,000, according to the South Florida Sun Sentinel and that "This type of family could afford to buy a house prior to the pandemic at prevailing prices and mortgage rates." "They can now no longer afford it. They can't even qualify for a mortgage in many cases, and that's just leading to a constriction in demand at the local level." Gerli previously wrote on X: "Florida's housing market is in a housing downturn. Prices are dropping all across the state, and will likely continue to drop for years due to an oversupply of housing combined with record lack of affordability." What Happens Next Florida may be heading into a multiyear housing market correction, with declining prices needed to make homes affordable again and bring buyers back into the market.
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
South Florida housing market could see drop in prices, with nearly 52,000 homes listed for sale
The number of homes listed for sale in South Florida has risen to its highest point in nearly a decade — which ultimately could lead to some lower prices, real estate experts say. There were nearly 52,000 active listings across South Florida's tricounty region in April — more than quadruple the number from 2022 during the COVID-19 pandemic, when listings had fallen to 12,825, according to Reventure, a real estate analytics tool. The home inventory has kept going up in recent years. Last year, active listings in April stood at nearly 37,000, before the region saw yet another increase this year. Three key factors are leading to the inventory spike, according to Nick Gerli, founder and CEO of Reventure. He says contributing to the rise has been: — Many local homebuyers have been priced out of the market. — The 'big crush' of people moving to South Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed. — Many people are now trying to sell. A family who lives in either Miami-Dade, Broward or Palm Beach counties likely earns the median annual income, which hovers between $70,000 to $80,000, Gerli said. 'This type of family could afford to buy a house prior to the pandemic at prevailing prices and mortgage rates,' Gerli said. 'They can now no longer afford it. They can't even qualify for a mortgage in many cases, and that's just leading to a constriction in demand at the local level.' For the second factor, Gerli said the 'massive wild entry of people,' particularly from the Northeastern portion of the United States, is significantly down from its peak several years ago. This loss of new people also is hurting demand, he said. And for the third influence, Gerli said many people across the state, not just in South Florida, are looking to sell their homes because of homeowner association fees or 'crazy property insurance.' 'It's kind of like this perfect storm now,' he said. Louie Granteed, the senior vice president of real estate for Tobin, a real estate company, said he's seeing more frequent downsizing, or moving to a smaller home, which also is influencing the rise in the home supply. 'I hear more and more people saying, 'I could just go rent and pay my rent and I don't have to worry about maintenance on my home. I don't have to worry about the annual real estate taxes. I don't have to worry about homeowners insurance. I can just pay my rent and if I decide I want to move, I move at the end of my lease, and I could do whatever I want,'' he said. Prices Because of the inverse relationship they share, home prices tend to go down as active listings go up. And a market correction, or a drop in prices that could create a more affordable environment, is less severe than a crash. Usually, a correction sees prices drop between 10% and 20%, while a crash sees a steeper decline that is often more sudden. If 'home value is declining at all, that could be thought of as a correction,' Gerli said. 'For it to be thought of as a crash, prices would probably need to drop over 20% from their peak. And we're definitely not at that point.' According to Reventure, in March of 2024, home values were about $486,000. One year later, in March of 2025, that dropped to about $485,000. Values for condominiums are particularly dropping, the byproduct of the issues plaguing the condo market. In response to the 2021 Champlain Towers South collapse in Surfside, state lawmakers implemented legislation that mandates inspection reports and reserve requirements for condos, but many boards were struggling to keep up with deadlines. These rules may be loosened, though, as a bill makes its way to Gov. Ron DeSantis' desk that would extend by one year the deadline for structural-integrity studies and allow for a temporary pause in reserve funding for two years immediately following a milestone inspection. 'I'm hearing about that every day, about associations that have not been putting reserves aside for maintenance of their buildings, associations that are sending out assessments that are significant in dollar amount to the people who live in the buildings, and a lot are saying that they can't afford them,' Granteed said. 'There's a lot of seniors that have zero mortgages and are getting these massive assessments that are being sent out that is the size of mortgages, and they're not going to be able to afford them so I think the correction is going to be mainly directed in the condo market.' Save for a few ZIP codes in Miami-Dade County, condo home values experienced a significant drop from March 2024 to March 2025, with some areas seeing a drop by nearly 20%. If interest rates stay relatively high, Granteed said home prices will continue to come down and inventory will keep growing. 'I keep seeing a lot of expired listings, which is telling me that I know the houses are not selling but there was a lot on the market,' Granteed said. For people who may want to buy in South Florida, this is good news, Gerli said. 'A lot of people are going to finally see more affordable home prices, and they're going to see more options on the market in terms of more inventory, and so this is actually great news for local homebuyers who have been priced out,' he said. 'However, it's still going to probably feel expensive, right, for the next year,' he said. 'It might take some time to get back to affordability, but the ball is moving in the correct direction for local homebuyers who've been waiting.'
