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Newsweek
10-08-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Dallas Housing Market Turns, Number of Homes for Sale Go 'Through the Roof'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. The Dallas-Fort Worth housing market is experiencing a sharp shift, with the number of homes for sale hitting levels not seen in more than a decade and price growth starting to reverse. The surge in available homes in Dallas marks a stark contrast to the pandemic-era frenzy that saw bidding wars, record price growth, and a flood of out-of-state buyers, according to housing experts. Analysts, meanwhile, point to a combination of factors behind the turnaround: more sellers re-entering the market after holding off during periods of interest rate uncertainty, a wave of new construction, and slowing demand as affordability pressures mount. With prices slipping year-over-year, they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Active listings in Dallas-Fort Worth reached almost 32,000 last month, according to Nick Gerli, CEO of real estate data consulting firm Reventure. That is around 60 percent more than the July average of 20,000 going back to 2017. Gerli described the current supply situation as "through the roof" in a post on X earlier this month, noting that the inventory surge is "happening pretty much everywhere in DFW." "[This is] the most selection the market has had since the tail end of the last downturn in 2011–12," Gerli wrote. Currently in Dallas, Zillow says house prices are down 4.6 percent over the last year, with an average value of $315,056. Looking ahead, Reventure forecasts a 7.8 percent drop in Dallas-Fort Worth home values over the next 12 months. On X, Gerli described the market as still "overvalued" by 22 percent and suggested prices may continue to fall for a couple of years before hitting bottom. Housing Price Drop 'Isn't Totally Surprising' For Harrison Polsky, a Dallas-based agent with Douglas Elliman and principal of Catēna Homes, the current cooling follows a period of unusually rapid growth. Between March 2017 and a peak in May 2025, home values in Dallas grew from $185,000 to $331,000, according to Zillow. "What's happening in Dallas-Fort Worth isn't totally surprising," Polsky told Newsweek. "We had such an explosive run-up in prices during the pandemic and people moving here in droves, low interest rates, tons of investor activity. Now we're seeing the market catch its breath. A lot of that outside momentum has cooled, and buyers are just being more cautious. It's not just Dallas—it's happening in other Texas cities too, but we're feeling it here more because we had such a sharp rise to begin with. This is more of a recalibration than a collapse." Some increase in supply is normal during the warmer months, but Polsky said the current surge goes beyond seasonal patterns. "Some of this is definitely seasonal—we always see more homes hit the market in spring and summer," he explained. "But this year feels different. Sellers who were holding off last year because of rate uncertainty are now listing, hoping to catch buyers before prices dip further. At the same time, we're seeing more new construction coming online, and fewer out-of-state buyers compared to the pandemic peak. So, it's not just a seasonal bump—it's a shift toward a market that's getting more competitive." Stock image/file photo: The Dallas skyline taken in late afternoon. Stock image/file photo: The Dallas skyline taken in late afternoon. GETTY Buyer's Market: Prices Drops to Continue Polsky sees Reventure's 7 to 8 percent drop forecast as plausible in certain parts of the metro. "A 7 to 8 percent drop might sound dramatic, but in context, it's not totally out of bounds—especially in neighborhoods where prices got inflated quickly," he said. "That said, I don't think every area will see that kind of dip. Some neighborhoods with strong schools, walkability, or limited inventory will probably hold up better. If rates stay high and inventory keeps climbing, sure, we could get close to that number. But I'd call that the higher end of the range—not a baseline for the whole market." For prospective buyers, the shift could bring long-awaited relief from years of overheated conditions. "If you're a buyer, this is probably the best shot you've had in years to negotiate," Polsky said. "Prices are softer, sellers are more flexible, and you're not having to compete in crazy bidding wars like before. I always tell clients: if you're planning to stay in the home for a while, and you find the right fit, go for it. Waiting for the 'perfect' bottom can backfire—especially if rates tick up again. This is a market where patience helps, but hesitation could cost you the right opportunity." Sellers, however, could be facing a more challenging environment. "You've got to be honest with yourself about today's market," Polsky said. "Gone are the days of throwing out a sky-high asking price and getting multiple offers overnight. Buyers are smarter and have way more options now. The best thing a seller can do is price right from the start, make the home look its absolute best, and be open to conversations. You don't need to give the house away, but you do need to show you're serious about selling. Presentation and realistic expectations are everything right now."
Newsweek
10-07-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
California's Housing Market Freezes Up
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Home sales have plummeted in California over the past few years and are now down 37 percent from their pandemic peak, according to data from real estate analytics platform Reventure App. Real estate analyst Nick Gerli, Reventure's CEO and founder, said that this plunge in sales indicates "a massive homebuyer strike underway in California right now" which is likely the result of how expensive the Golden State market has gotten over the past five years. Falling Sales and Rising Inventory While the California housing market remains competitive—with homes for sale spending an average 31 days on the market before going under contract, less than the nationwide median of 38—and home prices are still rising, buyers in the state are clearly withdrawing. According to the latest Redfin data, home sales in California totaled 24,895 in May, down 7.9 percent from a year earlier. An analysis of historical data by Reventure found that this number was about 25 percent lower than the state's long-term average—the typical or expected number of sales over an extended period of time. It was also significantly lower than the pandemic peak reached in June 2021, when the Golden State closed 43,471 sales. According to the California Association of Realtors, it was actually the biggest yearly decline in sales in 17 months. A Compass Realty sign is posted in front of a home for sale on June 23, 2025, in Greenbrae, California. A Compass Realty sign is posted in front of a home for sale on June 23, 2025, in Greenbrae, drop in sales might have something to do with the fact that the median sale price of a home in California remains much higher than that of a typical home in the U.S. In May, the median sale price of a home in the state was $859,700, up 0.02 percent year-over-year; in the U.S., it was $440,910, up 0.6 percent from a year earlier. Not only are homes expensive, but mortgage rates remain high—as of July 3, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.67 percent—and other costs—including home insurance, homeowners association (HOA) fees and repairs—are also going up, making buyers think twice about whether they can afford owning a home. "Buyers are waiting for the costs of homeownership to come down. That could mean lower mortgage rates or lower home prices," Oscar Wei, deputy chief economist at the California Association of REALTORS® (CAR), told Newsweek. "Buyers could also be waiting for some clarity on the market direction, as consumers remain concerned about how tariffs and the ongoing trade tensions could affect the economy and their personal finances." What Gerli describes as a "homebuyer strike" is starting to push up inventory in the state, where the supply of available homes is low and has been kept down by California's strict red-tape policies. According to Redfin, there were 112,485 homes for sale in the Golden State in May, up 18.7 percent from a year earlier. Of these, 38,160 were newly listed homes. According to data, active listings in the state totaled 76,737 in June. "This is the second-highest inventory level for June going back almost 10 years. So inventory is now rising, which is putting downward pressure on prices," Gerli told Newsweek. "The question is: will inventory continue to rise? If it does, I think the potential is there for California to experience a 15 percent housing correction." On the state level, only 40.4 percent of homes sold above list price in May, 9.53 percentage points less than a year earlier. On the other hand, 28.6 percent of home listings had price drops, up 4.4 percentage points from May 2024. "The increase in supply could alleviate some upward pressure on prices and make homeownership easier for those who are considering buying now," Wei said. A Market To Keep an Eye On While prices are not rising as much as they have in the past few years, they are far from dropping at the state level in California. According to Gerli, the state's housing market "will likely continue to struggle until affordability improves." Currently, he said, the median household in the state needs to spend over 62 percent of their gross income to afford mortgage and tax payments on a home purchase—which is an untenable proposition for many. "That's the most expensive of any conventional U.S. state, and ultimately, a payment ratio that puts owning a home out of reach for the vast majority of California renter households," Gerli said. But the dynamics unfolding in California should be watched closely, Gerli said, as any downturn in the state could have "big implications for the U.S. market more broadly," especially if California's housing market heads toward anything like a recession. The performance of the state's housing market has historically had a direct impact on California's neighbors—including Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Nevada and Washington—where Californians have sought cheaper housing when their own state offered little options. "California's high housing costs result in some would-be buyers electing to move to more affordable nearby states like Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho to buy a house," Gerli told Newsweek. "As a result, if home values were to drop in California, it could mean fewer people electing to leave the state—and less homebuyer demand in the surrounding states."
Newsweek
03-06-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Florida's Housing Market 'Turning Down Fast'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Florida housing market is "turning down fast," according to real estate analyst Nick Gerli, as sellers are increasingly offering reluctant buyers dramatic price cuts to convince them to close a purchase. Gerli, founder and CEO of real-estate platform Reventure, shared on X, formerly Twitter, late last month, a Zillow listing of a home in Saint Petersburg, Florida, which was bought by an investor in 2022—the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic homebuying frenzy—for a staggering $550,000 and sold again in late March for a much more reasonable $391,000. "Twenty-eight percent loss in three years," Gerli wrote in his post. Why It Matters The Sunshine State's housing market exploded during the pandemic, when the rise of remote work enabled many out-of-state movers to relocate to more affordable parts of the country offering a better quality of life than the country's busiest metropolises. The newcomers rapidly increased demand as well as prices across Florida, investors flocked to the state chasing what at the time seemed like sure-fire opportunities, and builders received authorization for building thousands of new homes to keep up with buyers. But Florida's once red-hot housing market started showing signs of a significant cooldown over the past year, as domestic migration shrank compared to the pandemic boom, housing costs rose sharply, and the threat of more frequent, more severe natural disasters and higher home insurance premiums swayed some buyers away from the state. The result is that prices have started to drop across much of the state, as historically high mortgage rates are still putting a significant damper on demand, despite growing inventory giving buyers more options. The median sale price of a home in Florida in April, according to Redfin, was $409,900, down 3.2 percent from a year earlier. Home sales were down 8.8 percent from April 2024, at 33,667. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty What To Know Gerli pointed at a home listing in Saint Petersburg as a glaring example of the dynamics unfolding in the state. The property, a three-bedroom home built in 1960 and sitting on 1,703 square feet of land, is estimated by Zillow to be worth about $386,800, having risen in value by 157 percent in the past 10 years. According to the property's price history, the home was sold in July 1999 for $93,000 and then again in December 2021 for $255,000. At the peak of the pandemic homebuying frenzy, in March 2022, it was listed for sale for $499,900, but the listing was later removed. The property was listed and sold again in April 2022 for an even higher price tag—$550,000—to a Blackstone-owned entity, according to Gerli. The new owner then listed it for sale again in February 2024 for a lower price, $529,000 and then offered four different price cuts in the following months. The listing was removed and reposted several times, until the home was sold on March 21, 2025 for $391,000—a drop of nearly $160,000 from the amount it fetched in 2022. "The house sat on the market for a year, and they incrementally lowered the price until finally it sold," Gerli said. According to the analyst, there was no clear issue with the property. "This does not appear to be a hurricane-damaged property, as they had already cut the price down to $431K (22-percent loss from purchase) before the hurricanes hit," he wrote on X. "After the hurricane hit, the price went down another $40K (7 percent)." For Gerli, the fate of this home in Saint Petersburg shows what can happen when investors get involved in a market, contributing to its overheating and then its downturn. "Investors had a huge impact in driving the Florida real estate bubble during the pandemic boom years of 2020 and 2021," he told Newsweek. Gerli added: "In markets like Jacksonville and Orlando, investor purchases nearly doubled from the pre-pandemic norm. Since then, they have collapsed by 50-60 percent from peak, leaving a gaping hole in the market. Many investors are now also electing to sell, particularly big Wall Street Investors, because the economics of owning real estate in Florida no longer make sense due to stagnating rents and skyrocketing insurance costs." On X, he wrote: "Imagine being a neighbor on this street, and getting excited about how much the value of your neighborhood was increasing. Only to now look at the new sales comp, and realize that the marginal buyer is now paying 28 percent less than three years ago. This is what investors do. Make the boom bigger on the way up, but the crash bigger on the way down." According to Gerli, investors are backing out of Florida for three main reasons—including high interest rates, rising housing costs and falling rents. "Higher interest rates significantly increased the cost of capital for investors, who almost always use debt to finance their acquisitions. Higher debt costs mean it's difficult to earn cash flow, making owning real estate a less attractive option," he said. "Second are the costs of holding real estate in Florida. Both property tax and insurance rates have skyrocketed in Florida over the last three years, further hurting investor margins and lowering the incentive to buy," he added. Gerli continued: "Third is the rental market. Rents in many areas of Florida are now dropping on a year-over-year basis, which makes the whole thesis of owning cash-flow driven real estate hard to justify, especially in market that is in a bubble like Florida. Many investors see this as their last chance to sell out before the prices and rents drop further." What Happens Next According to Gerli and most housing experts who talked with Newsweek, what is happening in Florida is the natural correction that you would expect to follow years of overheating. Many locals in the Sunshine State have been priced out of the market in recent years, and without investors buying up properties, demand has naturally come down. Investors backing off the market could exacerbate these dynamics, accelerating downward pressure on prices and forcing other sellers to slash prices to sell their homes. "Investors rushing to the exits is already destabilizing the market in Florida and making the downturn worse," Gerli told Newsweek. "In some neighborhoods around Tampa and St. Petersburg, there are examples of investors selling houses at 20-25 percent losses from their purchase price in 2022. These sales are now entering the comps and significantly lowering the values of homes in the surrounding area."
Newsweek
29-05-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Housing Market Expert Sees 'Alarming' Trend
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. A real estate analyst has sounded the alarm about a new trend that could weaken housing markets across the United States. "The collapse in investor demand in the U.S. Housing Market is alarming," Nick Gerli, the CEO of the Reventure app, wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "In a market like Atlanta, investors are buying 65% fewer homes than they did at the peak of the pandemic." In the markets affected by fewer investor purchases, housing inventory and supply are skyrocketing. This can cause home values to drop in many of the markets on a month-to-month basis, Gerli said. Why It Matters Monthly home values have already dropped in 27 out of the 50 states this year, according to Zillow. While Florida, Colorado, Washington, D.C., California, and Washington state experienced the greatest value declines from March to April, the data could foreshadow a larger shift in the housing market. Investor buying could play a significant role in determining home prices, depending on the market, and sellers may soon find themselves in a challenging situation. What To Know Beyond Atlanta, Gerli said investors are abandoning other markets, including Jacksonville, Phoenix, Charlotte, Nashville, Miami and Denver. While Jacksonville saw investors buying down by 63 percent, Charlotte experienced a 61 percent decline, and Nashville saw a similar 59 percent decline. "The issue with investors in the housing market is that they tend to 'amplify' whatever the current market trends are," Gerli said. "If there is a bubble, investors will make the bubble bigger, bringing in external capital into a local housing market that should be dependent on local buyers. "Meanwhile, in a crash or downturn, investors tend to make the situation worse. Leaving the market in droves before the crash gets worse." A real estate sign in front of a house for sale in West Los Angeles on November 20, 2020. A real estate sign in front of a house for sale in West Los Angeles on November 20, 2020. CHRIS DELMAS/AFP via Getty Images Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, has seen this trend in his market region of Fort Worth, Texas. "There were multiple homes purchased during the new build process by an investment group, and they have been left vacant for months," Thompson told Newsweek. "We are starting to see renters come back in as of now, but those places were vacant for at least six months which can be a large cash outlay for those companies. They were even trying to sell the properties outright, yet the market is just so tight at the moment." What People Are Saying Nick Gerli, the CEO of the Reventure app, wrote on X: "Home values in many of these markets boomed during the pandemic, as a result of the huge spike in investor demand. So what happens to home values when this demand goes away, and when these investors sell? I believe we're starting to see the answer." Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: "While lower demand from investors in some housing markets may be seen as a worrying sign, it actually could be a good thing for potential buyers in the coming months and years. Less demand for housing from the portfolios of some investors will equate to more availability, particularly in markets like Atlanta, Jacksonville, and others that have seen a substantial decline." Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of told Newsweek: "When I see headlines calling this 'alarming,' I'm for who exactly? For the investment firms that got caught holding overpriced assets when the music stopped? Or for my oldest son, who might finally be able to afford a home? "It's not a crisis, it's a housing market correction that's been a long time coming. And frankly, it can't happen fast enough." What Happens Next While a lack or reduction in investor demand may be a key factor in a potential housing crash, homebuyers are likely to benefit from the trend in the coming months, Beene said. "While in the past less investor demand has assisted in housing crashes going deeper, pricing remains strong, as most sellers and builders are offering smaller discounts instead of dramatically dropping prices," Beene said.
Newsweek
20-05-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Map Shows Home Values Dropping in Half the Country as Housing Market Shifts
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Home values shot down in half the country as the housing market faces a nationwide downturn. According to Zillow, monthly home values dropped in 27 out of the 50 states this year. While Florida, Colorado, Washington, D.C., California and Washington state experienced the greatest value declines from March to April, the data could foreshadow a larger housing market shift. Why It Matters The low inventory in the U.S. housing market has pushed prices upward in recent years. But as markets across the country now note an uptick in inventory, home values are coming down. Still, many potential homebuyers have been priced out of the market due to historically high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. What To Know The Zillow data revealed that real estate prices were shifting downward in more than just a few markets. While the post-pandemic era brought lower prices to Texas and Florida markets due to higher inventory and lower demand, home values across the country reflect a shifting market. Behind Florida, Colorado, Washington, D.C., California and Washington state, which saw the most notable decreases in value this past year, were Arizona, Louisiana, West Virginia, Texas and Georgia. These states saw as much as 0.37 percent decreases in home values, while Florida saw the worst value loss at 0.55 percent. "The broadening of this housing decline suggests there's a shift occurring in the U.S. Housing Market right now," Nick Gerli, founder and CEO of the real estate Reventure app, wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday. "Inventory is starting to rise in most parts of the country, and sellers are beginning to wake up to the fact that prices are overvalued, and they need to cut." Even states like California, where home prices have historically been some of the highest and demand continues to surge, experienced some course correction in home values. While values are up 1.3 percent over the last year, California home prices dropped 0.42 percent in the last month alone. "I think this data holds key implications for housing market analysts, homebuyers, and investors in 2025," Gerli said. "The question isn't becoming 'if' prices will drop. But rather: where the drops are occurring. And by how much." A "For Sale" sign is displayed in front of a home on February 22, 2023, in Miami. A "For Sale" sign is displayed in front of a home on February 22, 2023, in People Are Saying Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek: "Housing prices have declined due to their rapid rise after the pandemic. The economic shift from migration out of the West to now, a slowing of that same migration and overbuilding in places like Austin, TX, is now seeing an equilibrium shift downward. The median cost of homes rose sharply coming out of the pandemic, and that rise was unsustainable." Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst with told Newsweek: "This summer's housing market is expected to display familiar seasonal patterns, such as increased home sales and rising prices, but overall activity may remain subdued as buyers contend with elevated housing costs and lingering economic uncertainty. In regions like the South, where inventory is more abundant, these conditions could entice some buyers to enter the market." "Still, persistently high mortgage rates mean affordability remains top of mind, and many shoppers will be looking for more bang for their buck. Builders have pivoted toward offering smaller, more affordable homes and a range of incentives to entice buyers, but this strategy may be tested if the cost of construction inputs continues to rise." Michael Ryan, finance expert and founder of told Newsweek: "It's fascinating how we've gone from "your home is worth what?!" to "reality check" territory now. The housing market isn't crashing dramatically, more like it's finally coming back down to earth from a sugar high." Nationwide title and escrow expert Alan Chang told Newsweek: "For the last few years, I have been saying that property values have been at an unsustainable growth trajectory. It appears that portions of the market have started to correct themselves. I also believe that sellers are starting to ask a more realistic sales price as they see time on market being longer than what was seen a year or two ago. I don't see this as a housing crash like some have, but more of a normalization of the market." Alex Beene, financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: "Over the past two years, we've seen a major shift in the housing markets of certain cities and states that enjoyed a significant increase in purchases during the pandemic. As people have relocated due to "back to office" decisions, we've seen an exodus from some of those locations. Subsequently, the high prices and interest rates of homes are keeping many potential buyers out of the marketplace. It's a bad combination of factors that are causing housing values to trend downward, even if we have yet to see that impact in home sale values and declining interest rates." What Happens Next While many analysts believe interest rates are the housing market's main problem today, Thompson said prices of homes play a larger role in improving the market. "It is the cost of the homes that remains the issue and prices need to correct to make it more affordable for new buyers. I expect prices to continue to fall while rates remain higher, reaching a level where buyers and sellers can come to a good price in the future," Thompson said. "The timing of that is still up in the air, but it will definitely happen as all markets tend to correct where demand and supply meet." Some markets will continue seeing price drops while others are still growing, Ryan said. "It's not a one-size-fits-all story anymore," Ryan said. "Here in most of Florida, Texas, and Arizona are seeing bigger corrections while places like Charlotte, Denver, and even Miami are still posting gains." Still, on a larger scale, buyers will likely have more choices and "less frantic competition," Ryan said. "And for sellers? Gone are the days when you could slap any old price on your house and expect a bidding war," Ryan said. "Pricing right from the start is crucial now. Overpriced listings are just sitting there collecting dust."
