Latest news with #RobGinsberg
CNBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
The index to watch to decide if we are entering a new bull phase
Wall Street has its eye on the S & P 500 Equal Weight Index — which treats every stock equally — to gauge if the current market rally is a head fake or the start of a serious bull run. The Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF , known by its RSP ticker symbol, closed Friday at an all-time high. That sent the equal-weighted version of the broad market index — which gives less weight to buzzy technology names than the classic S & P 500 — to its first record since late November. "It will be an important chart to watch over the coming week," Rob Ginsberg, technical analyst at Wolfe Research, wrote in a note to clients over the weekend. "A breakout to new highs in the face of overbought conditions is something we would have to respect." RSP 5D mountain RSP over the last 5 days Because the RSP isn't concentrated in megacap technology names, investors see it as a better gauge of the health of the entire economy and stock market than the regular S & P 500. Given that, the RSP rising to an all-time closing high in tandem with the S & P 500 — which itself has marked a series of new all-time highs lately — gives some traders confidence that the current rally is more than a blip. "New highs for this ETF is a simple way to suggest price based market breadth is starting to improve," said Paul Ciana, Bank of America's technical strategist, in a Monday note to clients. The fund has a tailwind thanks to the head-and-shoulders formation etched out in its price chart, Ciana added. Similarly, Roth MKM chief technical strategist JC O'Hara said the equal-weighted index's recent performance is constructive for equity investors, even though the stock market may be due for a pause after the run up to record highs. The RSP pulled back about a half of 1% even after the trade deal President Trump reached with the European Union in Scotland on Sunday. "The expansion of breadth in the middle of earnings season widens the playing field for stock selection," O'Hara wrote to clients. That "should be seen as bullish behavior." Wolfe's Ginsberg also raised the idea of the playing field shifting. Outperformance of sectors that are considered more defensive, for example, can show a market leadership rotation is in the cards, he said. The RSP surpassing its November record close can signal a return to broadly bullish market conditions. Investors sent stocks soaring that month in the wake of Trump's re-election, which many saw as heralding an era of business deregulation. With Friday's record-setting move, the RSP is higher by more than 8% on the year. Yet the S & P 500 has outperformed, rising more than 9% in the same period.
CNBC
7 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
The energy sector has been lagging, but Wolfe says this dividend payer is about to break out
The energy sector is lagging the S & P 500 this year, but Wolfe Research spotted a couple of stocks that could be poised to gain. Oil prices have been soft this year, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures off about 9% per barrel, and Brent crude futures down 8%. Supply of the commodity has remained plentiful, and eight members of the OPEC+ cartel agreed earlier this month to lift production by 548,000 barrels a day. Similarly, the performance of energy stocks has been lackluster, with the S & P 500 sector only up by about 1% in 2025 versus 8% for the broad market index. Nevertheless, there are some gems in the space, according to Rob Ginsberg, technical analyst at Wolfe. "The landscape of the sector remains in the favor of stock pickers with outperformers being few and far between," he wrote in a report Monday, highlighting a "compelling" name that's on the verge of breaking out. Peabody Energy St. Louis-based coal miner Peabody Energy turned up on Ginsberg's radar, showing "one of the most convincing charts within energy." Ginsberg said that the stock's 200-day moving average at $18 is the next level of resistance as momentum continues to build. BTU 3M mountain Peabody Energy in the past three months "We expect it to be tested in coming weeks, with a breakout through that level likely to follow," the chart watcher said. Peabody closed Tuesday at $17.34, and the stock pays a dividend yield of 1.7% — fatter than the S & P 500 yield of 1.18%. Though shares have had a rough year thus far, down 17% in 2025, Peabody has recently seen a resurgence. The stock has soared 42% in the past three months, and 28% in July alone. Peabody's hot streak coincides with President Donald Trump's moves to take a lighter approach toward environmental regulations and his administration's support for the coal industry to help power the growth of artificial intelligence . Earlier this month, the president granted two years of regulatory relief to coal plants, taconite iron ore processing facilities and some chemical manufacturers. Peabody shares are well liked on Wall Street, with most analysts covering the St. Louis-based coal producer rating it a buy or strong buy, according to LSEG. But Wall Street's consensus price target calls for just 2% upside from where the stock has recently traded. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting
CNBC
27-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Look for S&P 500 rally to continue into mid-July, says chart analyst
The S & P 500 could continue to rally for the next few weeks, according to Wolfe Research. "We continue to get asked how much further this rally might run before consolidating. Our thinking has been mid to late July — right in time for the start of second-quarter earnings season and the typical seasonal peak," technical analyst Rob Ginsberg wrote Thursday. Stocks have been on a tear in recent weeks, with the S & P 500 surging more than 20% since reaching a low in April. Equities took a hit on fears that President Donald Trump's tariff policies would hurt corporate profits, slow the economy and maybe lift inflation. .SPX YTD bar SPX year to date Trade pressures have since eased, sending stocks to within a whisker of record levels. The S & P 500 entered Friday's session just 0.1% below its all-time intraday high set in February. S & P 500 futures were up around 0.2%, signaling a new record will be set at the open. Ginsberg also noted that the grind back to record highs comes as large speculators take out larger short positions, betting that prices will fall. The analyst said short positions on S & P 500 futures are at their highest levels since the first quarter of 2024. "If the VIX breaks support and large specs start covering, that could be the fuel for some near-term capitulation in the weeks ahead" and fuel more market gains, Ginsberg said, referring to the Volatility Index that's traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. The VIX, which briefly touched 60 in early April, has tumbled all the way back to 16.23 at Thursday's close. Elsewhere Friday morning on Wall Street, Citizens JMP Securities upgraded Google-parent Alphabet , calling for more than 20% upside on the stock citing benefits from artificial intelligence. "We believe AI is a net tailwind, with ChatGPT's impact too small today to move enough queries away from Google to materially impact results, while AI is expanding the search opportunity by answering a broader array of queries and extending monetization as AI better infers user intent," analyst Andrew Boone wrote in a note published Thursday.
CNBC
04-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
The setup is ‘compelling' for these two real estate stocks, Wolfe says – and they pay big dividend yields
The real estate sector has been a lackluster performer in recent weeks, but some dividend-paying stocks in the group could be showing signs of promise, according to Wolfe Research. While the S & P 500 was up more than 6% in May, the real estate sector only advanced about 0.9% in that time. Real estate's performance last month coincided with a volatile period for longer-dated Treasurys, including the 10-year note, as investors grappled with shakiness around tariff policy and deficit worries as the House of Representatives cleared a massive tax and spending bill . The 10-year Treasury is closely tied to the real estate sector, as a spike in yields raises borrowing costs and hurts returns on real estate investments. But even as the real estate sector has had a rough go, one corner of the market is standing out. "A more diluted group that intrigues us is Office [real estate investment trusts]," wrote Wolfe Research managing director and technical analyst Rob Ginsberg in a May 30 report. Indeed, the S & P 500's office REIT sub-industry group was up more than 5% in May – its first winning month in 2025. "[T]he group is starting to come around nicely following months of aggressive underperformance," Ginsberg added, noting that two names in particular are seeig "compelling setups." COPT Defense Properties Ginsberg called out COPT Defense Properties , noting that once the stock punches through its 200-day moving average of $29, its November high at $34 will be "the only thing left in its path." COPT Defense ended Tuesday's trading at $27.56. Shares are off more than 11% in 2025, and pay a current dividend yield of 4.4%. COPT Defense, based in Maryland, has a tenant base that includes U.S. government agencies and defense contractors. It also owns and operates more than 30 data centers. Earlier this year, the REIT lifted its quarterly dividend by 3.4%, a move that caught the attention of Wedbush analyst Richard Anderson. "The company confidently raised the dividend as results are beating essentially every guidance building block," he said in a May 12 report. Anderson rates COPT outperform. "Bigger picture, even though CDP appears protected from [Department of Government Efficiency] cuts and other military forced departures, we think the market [sees] the company as too close for comfort," he added. "Assuming CDP continues to perform, we expect it to shake that stigma." Wall Street also likes the name, with most analysts rating it a buy or strong buy, according to LSEG, and the consensus price target calling for 15% upside. Highwoods Properties Ginsberg also highlighted North Carolina-based Highwoods Properties , which owns and manages real estate in business districts in major Sunbelt cities, including Atlanta, Charlotte and Orlando. The key level for investors to watch is the $30.50 mark – Highwoods' 200-day moving average, Ginsberg said. Once the stock tops that, it would open a "sizable runway to the high $30s," he added. Shares ended Tuesday at $30.31. Highwoods' stock is off about 1% in 2025, and it pays a dividend yield of 6.6%. "We see the set-up into FY26-27 as promising but still see some execution risk and remain Neutral," Mizuho analyst Vikram Malhotra said in a report last week after meeting with Highwoods' CFO Brendan Maiorana. Malhotra noted that the South is still benefiting from migration trends, which is lifting office demand in Highwoods' markets. "Getting back to steady 'mid-single-digit' cash flow growth combined with a well-covered 7% dividend is the opportunity for investors," the analyst added. Analysts largely rate the company a hold, and the consensus price target sees just 1% upside from current levels, according to LSEG. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
CNBC
09-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
S&P 500 is still struggling below a ‘stubborn' resistance level
Not even signs of progress on the trade front could lift stocks above a key level that chart watchers are focused on. The S & P 500 ended Thursday at roughly 5,664. While that reflected a 0.6% advance for the day, it was well off the benchmark's session high of 5,720. In fact, the index sold off into the close — tumbling from about 5,709 just before 3:30 p.m. ET. "Not the ideal close, as ~5700 resistance is proving to be quite stubborn since the S & P first took it out 2-months ago," wrote Wolfe Research technical strategist Rob Ginsberg. A close above 5,700 would have been the first since late March, before President Donald Trump's April 2 tariff announcement. Ginsberg also noted that the S & P 500 fell short of its 200-day moving average, currently 5,748. "Ebullience on the U.K. trade deal gave way to a late day fade as the market once again closed below its 200-day moving average," Ginsberg said. "While many would argue [that's] an arbitrary number, the moving average has done a sound job over the years in helping to identify the market's underlying trend, and spending all but two days beneath it over the past two months speaks to the tape's longer-term deterioration." Indeed, the S & P 500 last closed above its 200-day average on March 25, when it ended the day at about 5,777. Bottom line: If the market can't make a meaningful break above 5,700 and retest its 200-day moving average, the bounce from the April lows could be short lived. Elsewhere Friday morning on Wall Street, UBS raised its price target on Boeing to $226, implying about 18% upside. The bank cited the aerospace company's ability to navigate a tough tariff landscape. "Boeing has taken a proactive approach to addressing tariff risk, communicating that they will prioritize supply chain continuity over price negotiations / changing production schedules and quantifying the direct cost impact as < $500mn annually (full reciprocals, net of duty drawbacks)," UBS wrote.
