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RTÉ News
3 days ago
- Politics
- RTÉ News
Behind the Story: Why meeting Trump in Alaska is 'handing Putin victory'
A meeting with US President Donald Trump is 'handing victory' to Russian President Vladimir Putin, an expert has said. Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House in the UK, was speaking to the Behind the Story podcast as US and Russian leaders are due to meet in Alaska on Friday. Mr Giles said the outcome of the meeting, which is excluding European and Ukrainian leaders, is the biggest question. "Having seen all the things leading up to this it's like watching a low motion train crash when you know days in advance it's going to happen," he told hosts Carole Coleman and Louise Byrne. "Everybody knows that the outcome is going to be at best nothing, at worst disastrous – and yet nobody seems to be able to do anything about it." The White House has played down expectations for the talks, saying it would be a "feel-out" meeting. However, Mr Giles described the meeting as a win for President Putin "long before he sets foot on US soil". "Russia will be fully aware that this is something that US presidents normally reward Moscow for – for good relations and working constructively towards solving problems. "Instead, you've got, effectively, a workaround where an internationally wanted war criminal who can't travel anywhere else so he has to go to Alaska in order not to arrive somewhere where he's going to be arrested. "So, it's handing Putin a victory on a plate even before they start talking". The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Mr Putin, accusing him of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine, in 2023. Mr Giles said he doubts that Ukraine will be the only talking point during the meeting. "I would expect there to be demands on Trump from Putin that go much further than Ukraine," he explained. "For instance, Putin trying to encourage Trump into thinking the whole problem with Europe is to do with American support there, or NATO accepting new members in eastern Europe. "We've seen previously that Trump is quite willing to swallow the lies [and] disinformation, the manipulation of history that we've seen from Putin. "So it could be that Trump comes away from this meeting completely convinced that the best thing to do is withdraw American support from Europe altogether". Mr Giles said he believes the time for optimism is "long passed" on Ukraine. "There were opportunities to deter Russia from invading Ukraine in the first place but they have all been missed," he said. "All the ways in which Ukraine could have helped to bring this to a conclusion have been refused by the United States and by some of Ukraine's foremost backers in Europe as well." You can listen to Behind the Story which is available on the RTÉ Radio Player.
The Sun
08-08-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Trump tariffs on buyers of Russian oil raise global risks
WASHINGTON: From punishing Brazil to trying to curb imports of fentanyl, US President Donald Trump has wielded the threat of tariffs as an all-purpose foreign policy weapon. With a Friday deadline for Russia to agree to peace in Ukraine or have its oil customers face secondary tariffs, Trump has found a novel, but risky, use for his favourite trade tool. The administration took a step towards punishing Moscow's customers on Wed-nesday, imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India over its imports of Russian oil, marking the first financial penalty aimed at Russia in Trump's second term. No order has been signed for China, the top Russian oil importer, but a White House official said on Wednesday, secondary measures that Trump has threatened against countries buying the petroleum were expected on Friday. These are the latest in a string of Trump's tariff threats on non-trade issues such as pressing Denmark to give the US control of Greenland, attempting to stop fentanyl deliveries from Mexico and Canada, and penalising Brazil over what he described as a 'witch hunt' against former President Jair Bolsonaro. While secondary tariffs could inflict pain on the Russian economy – severing a top source of funding for Russian President Vladimir Putin's war effort – they also carry costs for Trump. Oil prices will likely rise, creating political problems for him before next year's US midterm congressional elections. The tariffs would also complicate the administration's efforts to secure trade deals with China and India. For his part, Putin has signalled that Russia is prepared to weather any new economic hardship imposed by the US and its allies. There is 'close to zero chance' Putin will agree to a ceasefire due to Trump's threats of tariffs and sanctions on Russia, said Eugene Rumer, a former US intelligence analyst for Russia who directs the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Russia and Eurasia Programme. 'Theoretically if you cut off Indian and Chinese purchases of oil that would be a very heavy blow to the Russian economy and to the war effort. But that isn't going to happen,' he said, adding that the Chinese have signaled they will keep buying Russia's oil. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Russian embassy in Washington did not immediately respond. Secondary tariffs would hurt Russia, the world's second leading oil exporter. The West has pressured Russia since late 2022 with a price cap on its oil exports, intended to erode Russia's ability to fund the war. That cap has piled costs on Russia as it forced it to reroute oil exports from Europe to India and China, which have been able to import huge amounts of it at discounted prices. But the cap also kept oil flowing to global markets. In an early sign that Putin hopes to avoid the tariffs, the White House said that Putin and Trump could meet as soon as next week, following a meeting between US envoy Steve Witkoff and the Russian leader on Wednesday. But some analysts are skeptical that Moscow is ready to stop the war. Brett Bruen, former foreign policy adviser for former president Barack Obama now head of the Global Situation Room consultancy, cautioned that Putin has found ways to evade sanctions and other economic penalties. And even if tariffs and sanctions cut into Russia's revenues, Putin is not under much domestic pressure. Secondary tariffs, Bruen said, could start to cause some economic pain. 'But the question is whether that really changes Putin's behaviour.' The tariffs could also create new problems for the Trump administration as it pursues sweeping trade deals, especially with India and China. Kimberly Donovan, a former US Treasury official, said the tariffs could hamper the US bilateral and trade relationships with India and China. 'You've got two major oil importers that can kind of dig in their heels and push back, knowing what the US needs out of them,' said Donovan, now director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative in the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Centre. China has demonstrated leverage over the US by cutting off mineral exports and new tariffs would upset a delicate balance negotiated since May to restart those flows critical to a host of US industries. India has leverage over generic pharmaceutical exports and precursor chemicals to the US. Both countries say that oil purchases are a sovereign matter and contend that they are playing by the previous rules, namely the price cap on Russian crude. Secondary tariffs would raise the cost of imports into the US of products from Russia's customers, giving them an incentive to buy their oil elsewhere. Squeezing the shipments risks spiking fuel prices and inflation around the world that could pose political difficulties for Trump. The month after Moscow's February 2022 invasion, fears of disruptions from Russia pushed international crude prices close to US$130 per barrel, not far from their all-time high of US$147. If India were to stop buying 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian crude, about 2% of global supply, world prices would jump from the current US$66, analysts said. JP Morgan analysts said this month it was 'impossible' to sanction Russian oil without triggering a price jump. Any perceived disruptions to Russian shipments could propel Brent oil prices into the US$80s or higher. Despite Trump's statements that US producers would step in, it would be unable to quickly ramp up, they said. Russia could retaliate, including closing the CPC Pipeline from Kazakhstan, which could create a global supply crisis. Western oil firms Exxon, Chevron, Shell , ENI and TotalEnergies ship up to 1 million barrels per day via CPC, which has total capacity of 1.7 million bpd. Cullen Hendrix, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said energy shocks are never welcome, especially not amidst a softening housing market and weak job growth. A key question is whether Trump can frame any economic pain as necessary to force Russia to negotiate. – Reuters
Yahoo
04-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Why Trump's Ukraine aid freeze upends world order
The U.S. has suspended military aid to Ukraine as part of a pressure campaign to push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky toward negotiations with Russia, U.S. President Donald Trump's senior adviser Jason Miller said on March 4. It's just the latest in a series of developments since Trump took office that mark a dramtic shift in the U.S.'s relationship with not only Ukraine, but Europe, and the rest of the world. The Kyiv Independent spoke with Timothy Ash, associate fellow at the Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, who told us that what is unfolding right now amount to 'teutonic shifts in alliances that I don't think anyone could quite have imagined.' We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Bloomberg
03-03-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
'NATO Is Dead,' Says Chatham House's Timothy Ash (Full Interview)
Timothy Ash, Chatham House, Russia and Eurasia Programme Associate Fellow says "NATO is dead" but there are "silver linings" to the Oval Office row between Trump and Zelenskiy. The comments come after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to repair his relationship with US counterpart Donald Trump after a public spat at the White House on Friday. The US and Ukraine failed to sign a critical minerals agreement after a meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy devolved into a fiery exchange, fracturing relations between the two countries. Qualifying the incident as "very unfortunate," Mark Rutte said in an interview with the BBC that he's spoken to Zelenskiy twice since and told him that "we really have to respect what President Trump has done so far for Ukraine." Ash Spoke to Caroline Hepker on Bloomberg Radio about the rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
27-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
What will happen after the Ukraine peace talks? Experts assess four possible outcomes
Vladimir Putin has said Europe will eventually need to be involved in Ukraine peace talks but indicated Moscow first wants to build its trust with Washington. The Russian leader suggested a deal to end the conflict is some way off – with his comments less optimistic than those of US president Donald Trump, who on Monday suggested the war could end within weeks. Describing his recent phone call with Trump as well as talks between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia, Putin said that the resolution of the conflict was "not discussed in detail" and that both sides "only agreed that we would move toward this". Visiting the White House on Monday as the world marked the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, French president Emmanuel Macron said he believed it was "feasible" that a truce could be agreed in "weeks to come", after which negotiators would work towards longer-term peace. But what will that peace look like? Throughout the three-year conflict, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has pursued full liberation of his country's territory including Crimea, as well as Nato membership – but with Trump more far critical towards Ukraine than his predecessor Joe Biden, is this really still a realistic outcome? Here, Yahoo News takes a look at the possible outcomes of Ukraine peace talks: An enduring peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely, according to Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations think-tank. 'I'm sceptical that we'll get a peace deal,' he told the Los Angeles Times this week. 'I think we might get a ceasefire, which then leads to a frozen conflict.' Faced with the choice of a few years' respite or a continued "war of attrition", John Lough an associate fellow of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, wrote in October that many Ukrainians might prefer the former option. A ceasefire could also be in the interests of Ukraine, as the Minsk Agreements signed in 2014 to end fighting between Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces in the Donbas bought Ukraine more time to strengthen its institutions, armed forces and security services. Speaking to Yahoo News on Tuesday, Lough said that despite the term "ceasefire", Russia would likely use it as an opportunity to "achieve some of its war aims", potentially by "disrupting the election process" in Ukraine. Lough believes a ceasefire is more likely than a formal peace deal, and that while Trump would try to sell such an arrangement "as peace", it would be "anything but that". He said that the US is unlikely to achieve a longer-term and more secure settlement as "the underlying issues are too complex" for such an agreement to be reached "quickly". Much of this depends on what Russia wants, with US secretary of state Marc Rubio recently suggesting the country has "public demands" and "private demands". Trump will likewise want something from Moscow – potentially for Russia to distance itself from China (which will be a hard sell for Trump), or "something to do with the Arctic", Lough said, alluding to Trump's recent interest in Greenland. When people talk about the war beginning in 2022, they are referring to Russia's "full-scale" invasion of Ukraine. However, Russian forces annexed the country's southeastern region of Crimea back in 2014, with Russian-backed separatists taking control of parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk areas of the eastern Donbas region later that same year. Zelensky has made it clear he wants this territory back under Ukrainian control, too, but this outcome appeared more distant after US defence secretary Pete Hegseth told Nato allies earlier this month that "returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective". "Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering," he added. Insisting that this would not be a "concession" to Putin, Hegseth said: "It's a recognition of the hard power realities on the ground after a lot of investment and sacrifice first by the Ukrainians and then by allies." Lough also said the reclaiming by Ukraine of Crimea is "not going to happen", although questions remain over other parts of Ukraine taken by Russia. Setting a tough opening stance before talks in Saudi Arabia last week, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said there would be no talk of territorial concessions to Ukraine. "Territorial concessions to what is now called Ukraine were made by the Soviet leadership during the formation of the USSR," he added. About 20% of Ukraine is currently controlled by Russian forces, and while Zelensky has long called for a complete liberation of those territories as part of a deal, this outcome is appearing less likely. 'Everybody knows how the war ends, it ends with Ukraine giving up some territory,' former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney told Sky News Australia. Map shows how much Ukrainian territory Russia controls (please wait for map to load) Russia has said keeping control of these regions in the south and east of Ukraine – including Crimea and the Donbas – is high on the agenda. 'In exchange for that, Ukraine would get additional security guarantees, so I think that is the balance. I think at the end of the day, they'll be a ceding of some territory in the Ukraine in exchange for closer ties to the West.' Lough said there might be some minor "swapping" of territory if Ukraine can keep hold of the area of land it has captured within Russia's border in the Kursk region, but said there is "not really going to be much beyond that". Journalist and fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Centre Mark Temnycky told Yahoo News that while many European countries would "not acknowledge Russian land grabs as legitimate in Ukraine" and describe them as "illegal occupations", this "will not matter" as far as Moscow is concerned. "While the territory will not be internationally recognised as Russian, the Russians will still celebrate this as a victory," he added. Despite the sudden developments in recent weeks and Trump's optimistic pronouncements, it remains possible that the current peace talks could break down. "It is still possible that the Russians will list a set of outlandish demands, which would have Ukraine and Europe walk away from negotiations," said Temnycky. "Should this occur, the international community would likely continue to send aid to Ukraine so that it can defend itself." However, Lough said that Putin is "under more pressure than it may appear" not to let the war carry on indefinitely, faced with a struggling Russian economy and the need to maintain significant manpower in his country's military. A military mobilisation order in 2022 which would have seen people drafted into the war was not a popular decision, with tens of thousands of people fleeing the country as a result, so these domestic problems might keep Putin at the negotiating table. If peace talks did collapse, however, Ukraine would continue to depend on the help of its allies, and with Trump saying in December that he was open to the idea of reducing military aid to Ukraine, the future would look very uncertain. Senior Tories attack Trump over 'new axis' after US sides with China, North Korea and Russia (The Independent) As Starmer announces defence budget increase, how big is the British Army? (Yahoo News) UK PM heads to US hoping to 'bridge' Trump-Europe divide over Ukraine (AFP)
