Behind the Story: Why meeting Trump in Alaska is 'handing Putin victory'
Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House in the UK, was speaking to the Behind the Story podcast as US and Russian leaders are due to meet in Alaska on Friday.
Mr Giles said the outcome of the meeting, which is excluding European and Ukrainian leaders, is the biggest question.
"Having seen all the things leading up to this it's like watching a low motion train crash when you know days in advance it's going to happen," he told hosts Carole Coleman and Louise Byrne.
"Everybody knows that the outcome is going to be at best nothing, at worst disastrous – and yet nobody seems to be able to do anything about it."
The White House has played down expectations for the talks, saying it would be a "feel-out" meeting.
However, Mr Giles described the meeting as a win for President Putin "long before he sets foot on US soil".
"Russia will be fully aware that this is something that US presidents normally reward Moscow for – for good relations and working constructively towards solving problems.
"Instead, you've got, effectively, a workaround where an internationally wanted war criminal who can't travel anywhere else so he has to go to Alaska in order not to arrive somewhere where he's going to be arrested.
"So, it's handing Putin a victory on a plate even before they start talking".
The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Mr Putin, accusing him of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine, in 2023.
Mr Giles said he doubts that Ukraine will be the only talking point during the meeting.
"I would expect there to be demands on Trump from Putin that go much further than Ukraine," he explained.
"For instance, Putin trying to encourage Trump into thinking the whole problem with Europe is to do with American support there, or NATO accepting new members in eastern Europe.
"We've seen previously that Trump is quite willing to swallow the lies [and] disinformation, the manipulation of history that we've seen from Putin.
"So it could be that Trump comes away from this meeting completely convinced that the best thing to do is withdraw American support from Europe altogether".
Mr Giles said he believes the time for optimism is "long passed" on Ukraine.
"There were opportunities to deter Russia from invading Ukraine in the first place but they have all been missed," he said.
"All the ways in which Ukraine could have helped to bring this to a conclusion have been refused by the United States and by some of Ukraine's foremost backers in Europe as well."
You can listen to Behind the Story which is available on the RTÉ Radio Player.
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He said that if Friday's talks went well, quickly arranging a second, three-way summit with Zelenskiy would be even more important than his encounter with Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a three-way summit would be possible if the Alaska talks bore fruit, Interfax news agency reported. Peskov also said Friday's talks could last 6-7 hours and that aides would take part in what had been expected to be one-to-one meetings. Zelenskiy said the summit should open the way for a "just peace" and three-way talks that included him but added that Russia was continuing to wage war on Friday. A Russian ballistic missile earlier struck Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region, killing one person and wounding another. "It's time to end the war, and the necessary steps must be taken by Russia. We are counting on America," Zelenskiy wrote on the Telegram messaging app. 'Smart guy' The Kremlin said Putin would arrive in Alaska at 11 a.m. (1900 GMT) and would be met at his plane by Trump. "He is a smart guy, been doing it for a long time but so have I... We get along, there's a good respect level on both sides," Trump said of Putin. He also welcomed Putin's decision to bring a lot of businesspeople with him to Alaska. "But they're not doing business until we get the war settled," he said, repeating a threat of "economically severe" consequences for Russia if the summit goes badly. One source acquainted with Kremlin thinking said there were signs that Moscow could be ready to strike a compromise on Ukraine given that Putin understood Russia's economic vulnerability and costs of continuing the war. Reuters has previously reported that Putin might be willing to freeze the conflict along the front lines, provided there was a legally binding pledge not to enlarge NATO eastwards and to lift some Western sanctions. NATO has said that Ukraine's future is in the alliance. Russia, whose war economy is showing signs of strain, is vulnerable to further U.S. sanctions - and Trump has threatened tariffs on buyers of Russian crude, primarily China and India. "For Putin, economic problems are secondary to goals, but he understands our vulnerability and costs," the Russian source said. Putin this week held out the prospect of something else he knows Trump wants - a new nuclear arms control accord to replace the last surviving one, which is due to expire next February. Common ground? The source familiar with Kremlin thinking said it looked as if the two sides had been able to find some common ground. "Apparently, some terms will be agreed upon... because Trump cannot be refused, and we are not in a position to refuse (due to sanctions pressure)," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity. Putin has said he is open to a full ceasefire but that issues of verification must first be sorted out. One compromise could be a truce in the air war. Zelenskiy has ruled out formally handing Moscow any territory and is also seeking a security guarantee backed by the United States. It is unclear how that guarantee could work. Ukrainians who spoke to Reuters in central Kyiv on Friday were not optimistic about the summit. "Nothing good will happen there, because war is war, it will not end. The territories - we're not going to give anything to anyone," said Tetiana Harkavenko, a 65-year-old cleaner. Today 01:32 PM Russia's President Vladimir Putin listens to explanations as he visits a plant of Omega-Sea enterprise in the far eastern port city of Magadan on the Sea of Okhotsk, Russia, August 15, 2025. Sputnik/Alexey Nikolsky/Pool via REUTERS Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Magadan region's Governor Sergei Nosov as he visits the far eastern port city of Magadan on the Sea of Okhotsk, Russia, August 16, 2025. Sputnik/Alexey Nikolsky/Pool Russia's President Vladimir Putin listens to explanations as he visits a plant of Omega-Sea enterprise in the far eastern port city of Magadan on the Sea of Okhotsk, Russia, August 15, 2025. Sputnik/Alexey Nikolsky/Pool via REUTERS Load more Live Blog Software Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who was not invited to the talks, and his European allies fear Trump might sell out Ukraine by essentially freezing the conflict and recognising - if only informally - Russian control over one fifth of Ukraine. Trump sought to assuage such concerns as he boarded Air Force One, saying he would let Ukraine decide on any possible territorial swaps. "I'm not here to negotiate for Ukraine, I'm here to get them at a table," he said. Asked what would make the meeting a success, he told reporters: "I want to see a ceasefire rapidly... I'm not going to be happy if it's not today... I want the killing to stop." The U.S. and Russian presidents are due to meet at a Cold War-era air force base in Alaska's largest city at around 11 a.m. (1900 GMT) for their first face-to-face talks since Trump returned to the White House. Trump hopes a truce in the 3-1/2-year-old war will bolster his credentials as a global peacemaker worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize. For Putin, the summit is already a big win that he can portray as evidence that years of Western attempts to isolate Russia have unravelled and that Moscow is retaking its rightful place at the top table of international diplomacy. Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev described the pre-summit mood as "combative" and said the two leaders would discuss not only Ukraine but the full spectrum of bilateral relations, Russia's RIA news agency reported. Trump, who once said he would end Russia's war in Ukraine within 24 hours, conceded on Thursday it had proven a tougher task than he had expected. He said that if Friday's talks went well, quickly arranging a second, three-way summit with Zelenskiy would be even more important than his encounter with Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a three-way summit would be possible if the Alaska talks bore fruit, Interfax news agency reported. Peskov also said Friday's talks could last 6-7 hours and that aides would take part in what had been expected to be one-to-one meetings. Zelenskiy said the summit should open the way for a "just peace" and three-way talks that included him but added that Russia was continuing to wage war on Friday. A Russian ballistic missile earlier struck Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region, killing one person and wounding another. ADVERTISEMENT Learn more "It's time to end the war, and the necessary steps must be taken by Russia. We are counting on America," Zelenskiy wrote on the Telegram messaging app. The Kremlin said Putin would arrive in Alaska at 11 a.m. (1900 GMT) and would be met at his plane by Trump. "He is a smart guy, been doing it for a long time but so have I... We get along, there's a good respect level on both sides," Trump said of Putin. He also welcomed Putin's decision to bring a lot of businesspeople with him to Alaska. "But they're not doing business until we get the war settled," he said, repeating a threat of "economically severe" consequences for Russia if the summit goes badly. One source acquainted with Kremlin thinking said there were signs that Moscow could be ready to strike a compromise on Ukraine given that Putin understood Russia's economic vulnerability and costs of continuing the war. Reuters has previously reported that Putin might be willing to freeze the conflict along the front lines, provided there was a legally binding pledge not to enlarge NATO eastwards and to lift some Western sanctions. NATO has said that Ukraine's future is in the alliance. Russia, whose war economy is showing signs of strain, is vulnerable to further U.S. sanctions - and Trump has threatened tariffs on buyers of Russian crude, primarily China and India. "For Putin, economic problems are secondary to goals, but he understands our vulnerability and costs," the Russian source said. Putin this week held out the prospect of something else he knows Trump wants - a new nuclear arms control accord to replace the last surviving one, which is due to expire next February. The source familiar with Kremlin thinking said it looked as if the two sides had been able to find some common ground. "Apparently, some terms will be agreed upon... because Trump cannot be refused, and we are not in a position to refuse (due to sanctions pressure)," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity. Putin has said he is open to a full ceasefire but that issues of verification must first be sorted out. One compromise could be a truce in the air war. Zelenskiy has ruled out formally handing Moscow any territory and is also seeking a security guarantee backed by the United States. It is unclear how that guarantee could work. Ukrainians who spoke to Reuters in central Kyiv on Friday were not optimistic about the summit.
