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Russia faces struggle to replace bombers lost in Ukrainian drone strikes
Russia faces struggle to replace bombers lost in Ukrainian drone strikes

Reuters

time4 hours ago

  • Politics
  • Reuters

Russia faces struggle to replace bombers lost in Ukrainian drone strikes

LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - Russia will take years to replace nuclear-capable bomber planes that were hit in Ukrainian drone strikes last weekend, according to Western military aviation experts, straining a modernisation programme that is already delayed. Satellite photos of airfields in Siberia and Russia's far north show extensive damage from the attacks, with several aircraft completely burnt out, although there are conflicting versions of the total number destroyed or damaged. The United States assesses that up to 20 warplanes were hit - around half the number estimated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy - and around 10 were destroyed, two U.S. officials told Reuters. The Russian government on Thursday denied that any planes were destroyed and said the damage would be repaired, but Russian military bloggers have spoken of loss or serious damage to about a dozen planes, accusing commanders of negligence. The strikes - prepared over 18 months in a Ukrainian intelligence operation dubbed "Spider's Web", and conducted by drones that were smuggled close to the bases in trucks - dealt a powerful symbolic blow to a country that, throughout the Ukraine war, has frequently reminded the world of its nuclear might. In practice, experts said, they will not seriously affect Russia's nuclear strike capability which is largely comprised of ground- and submarine-based missiles. However, the Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-22M3 Backfire bombers that were hit were part of a long-range aviation fleet that Russia has used throughout the war to fire conventional missiles at Ukrainian cities, defence plants, military bases, power infrastructure and other targets, said Justin Bronk, an aviation expert at the RUSI think tank in London. The same fleet had also been carrying out periodic patrol flights into the Arctic, North Atlantic and northern Pacific as a show of strength to deter Russia's Western adversaries. Bronk said that at the outset of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia was operating a fleet of 50-60 Bear-Hs and around 60 Backfires, alongside around 20 Tu-160M nuclear-capable Blackjack heavy bombers. He estimated that Russia has now lost more than 10% of the combined Bear-H and Backfire fleet, taking into account last weekend's attacks and the loss of several planes earlier in the war - one shot down and the others struck while on the ground. These losses "will put major pressure on a key Russian force that was already operating at maximum capacity," Bronk told Reuters. Russia's defence ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Replacing the planes will be challenging. Both the Bear H and the Backfire are aircraft that were designed in the Soviet era and have been out of production for decades, said Douglas Barrie, aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, although existing planes have been upgraded over the years. Barrie said that building new ones like-for-like was therefore very unlikely, and it was unclear whether Russia had any useable spare airframes of either type. Western sanctions against Russia have aimed to restrict the import of components such as microprocessors that are vital to avionics systems, although Moscow has so far been comparatively successful at finding alternative sources, Barrie added. Russia has been modernising its Blackjack bomber fleet, and Putin sent a pointed signal to the West last year by taking a 30-minute flight in one such aircraft and pronouncing it ready for service. But production of new Blackjacks is slow - one Russian military blogger this week put it at four per year - and Western experts say progress in developing Russia's next-generation PAK DA bomber has also been moving at a crawl. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) said in a report, opens new tab last month that Russia had signed a contract with manufacturer Tupolev in 2013 to build the PAK DA, but cited Russian media reports as saying state test flights are not scheduled until next year, with initial production to begin in 2027. While it would be logical for Russia to try to speed up its PAK DA plans, it may not have the capacity, said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the FAS. He said in a telephone interview that Russia is facing delays with a range of other big defence projects including its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. RUSI's Bronk was also sceptical of Moscow's chances of accelerating the timeline for the next-generation bomber. "Russia will struggle to deliver the PAK DA programme at all in the coming five years, let alone accelerate it, due to budgetary shortfalls and materials and technology constraints on industry due to sanctions," he said.

Adam Zivo: Vladimir Putin's new 'peace' terms are a predatory farce
Adam Zivo: Vladimir Putin's new 'peace' terms are a predatory farce

National Post

time2 days ago

  • General
  • National Post

Adam Zivo: Vladimir Putin's new 'peace' terms are a predatory farce

Want further proof that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no genuine interest in ending the war? Look no further than the 'peace memo' his government presented to Ukraine in Istanbul on Monday. The document makes absurd demands that, if fulfilled, would render Ukraine's dismemberment inevitable. Evidently, Putin's goal is conquest, not coexistence. Article content Article content While the Trump administration naively hoped that this week's Istanbul peace talks might produce some kind of diplomatic breakthrough, the Russian memo merely rehashed Moscow's longstanding, maximalist position: 'hand over more territory, disarm yourselves and we pinky-swear not to invade again.' Article content Article content Specifically, the Russians want Kyiv to cede four Ukrainian provinces — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — which Putin unilaterally 'annexed' in late 2022. While Russia currently occupies 99 per cent of Luhansk, Ukraine has managed to retain control over 29 per cent of the remaining three provinces, including the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which are the capitals of their eponymous regions. Article content Putting things into perspective, these unoccupied lands (24,000~ square kilometres) are slightly larger in size than Israel and equal to four per cent of Ukraine's total area. Despite the ravages of war, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians continue to reside there, primarily in Zaporizhzhia city. Article content Article content There is no way that any government in Kyiv — aside from a puppet regime — could voluntarily trade away these territories. Doing so would consign countless Ukrainians to the brutalities of Russian occupation, and precipitate a mass exodus of refugees whose destitution would further strain Ukraine's already overstretched state resources. Article content Article content Worse yet, Putin's so-called peace plan is structured in a way that would leave Ukraine vulnerable to total conquest in a matter of weeks or months, not years. Article content The memo outlines a clear sequence of steps for ending the conflict — among the first would be the signing of a 'ceasefire memorandum' that would establish timelines for the implementation of Moscow's demands. Unlike treaties, memorandums are relatively informal documents that are legally nonbinding. Article content A 30-day ceasefire would subsequently commence, coinciding with the beginning of Ukraine's withdrawal from the four annexed provinces. During this period, Kyiv would be banned from mobilizing new soldiers or receiving any foreign military aid. Existing Ukrainian forces would have to begin demobilizing, and would be barred from being redeployed within the country (except when withdrawing). Martial law would be lifted and new elections would be announced, to be held within 100 days.

Sweden tightens maritime controls to target Russian shadow fleet
Sweden tightens maritime controls to target Russian shadow fleet

Yahoo

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Sweden tightens maritime controls to target Russian shadow fleet

The Swedish government has introduced regulations to enhance insurance checks on foreign vessels to counter Russia's shadow fleet. Source: a statement of the Swedish government, as quoted by AP News and reported by European Pravda Details: Effective from 1 July 2025, the Swedish Coast Guard and Maritime Administration can request insurance details from vessels transiting Sweden's territorial waters or economic zone, beyond those entering ports. "We are seeing more and more problematic events in the Baltic Sea and this requires us not only to hope for the best, but also to plan for the worst," said Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Russia's shadow fleet transports oil, gas and reportedly stolen Ukrainian grain, evading Western sanctions. Background: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on 21 May that a Russian shadow fleet vessel had carried out suspicious manoeuvres near a power cable connecting Poland and Sweden. Polish forces intervened in the incident. Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!

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