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Yahoo
7 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Will Tropical Storm Erin hit the US or turn? Here's what early forecasts say.
Tropical Storm Erin, which is still thousands of miles from the U.S. East Coast in the central Atlantic Ocean, is traveling west and forecast to strengthen into the season's first hurricane by Aug. 14, the National Hurricane Center said. But will it hit the United States? Most reliable computer models that meteorologists use to forecast storms show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast in mid-August. "It is too soon to discount – or pinpoint – USA landfall impacts from Erin but based upon current model guidance – the chance RIGHT NOW is low, at less than 10%," said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in an email to USA TODAY Aug. 11. WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry added a note of caution, telling USA TODAY that "it's worth reiterating that forecasts 5 to 10 days out are subject to large errors, so we'll need to hang tight before confidently giving the U.S. the all-clear." Maue predicted that "as the Lower 48 comes into view of Erin in the next few days, our models will become more confident/certain on the eventual outcome — so we should know on Thursday (Aug. 14) what will happen." However, even if Erin does avoid landfall on the United States, "there will be a significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said. What forces are guiding Erin? As is often the case with Atlantic hurricanes, Erin's path will be primarily determined by the strength of the Bermuda High, a semi-permanent ridge of high pressure that sits over the western Atlantic Ocean in the summer. The stronger the Bermuda High, the more of a threat Erin is to the United States. A weaker Bermuda High is better news. "Erin will be guided along by the northeast trade winds initially and then the clockwise circulation around the massive Bermuda High over the central Atlantic," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. As of the morning of Aug. 12, the hurricane center reported that Erin should head west and slow down as the Bermuda High weakens slightly. Later in the forecast period, the high is expected to weaken a little more, and a more west-northwestward track is likely. Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said the track forecast is in decent model agreement, "showing a good, tight track consensus through Sunday or Monday, bringing the storm north of the Caribbean islands." Warm waters could fuel major hurricane All signs point to Erin reaching major hurricane status, the hurricane center said. This means the storm will reach Category 3 status, with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph. The forecast is due to warm waters where the storm is expected to track, providing fuel for the storm, the hurricane center said. Low wind sheer could also help Erin strengthen There will also be a lack of wind shear that acts to tear developing hurricanes apart. "Low wind shear (a lack of disruptive winds) north of the Caribbean and much warmer water could really allow Erin to strengthen rapidly late this week and this weekend," AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in an online report. What parts of the US coast are most at risk? AccuWeather said that a major hurricane passing 100 miles east of the United States or west of Bermuda could still bring tropical storm conditions in terms of wind, heavy seas and perhaps heavy rain. "Land that extends farther to the east might be the most prone in this case, such as coastal areas of North Carolina, Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard in New England," said AccuWeather meteorologists Alex Sosnowski and Elizabeth Danco in an online report. In Canada, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could be facing more significant impacts from Erin. How worried should people be? The hurricane center, as always, stressed caution: It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the east coast of the United States, the hurricane center said Aug. 12. However, the hurricane center said "As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place." Checklist: How to prepare your house for a hurricane Lanza said the odds favor a miss: "History favors an out to sea track, though not at 100 percent. Of the 56 known named storms track within 120 nautical miles of Erin's forecast position in 24 hours, 51 of them have gone out to sea, a U.S. hit rate of about 9 percent." This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will Erin hit the U.S.? Here's what forecasters say. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erin to become major hurricane soon: See tracker
Tropical Storm Erin continues to travel west and is on pace to strengthen into the season's first major hurricane by the end of this week, the National Hurricane Center said. According to a 5 a.m. ET advisory from the NHC on Aug. 13, Erin was located about 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds around 45 mph with higher gusts. Erin is currently moving west near 20 mph, and this motion is expected into Thursday, according to forecasters. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin Thursday night and will continue into the weekend, with the center of Erin likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. "Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday," the hurricane center said in the Aug. 13 advisory. A major hurricane is a term used for cyclones rated a Category 3 or higher with sustained wind speeds over 110 mph. Forecasters are urging interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico to monitor the progress of Erin, as the storm could produce impacts on those islands this weekend. The magnitude of those impacts, however, is still not known. Most reliable computer models that meteorologists use to forecast storms show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast in mid-August. "It is too soon to discount – or pinpoint – USA landfall impacts from Erin, but based upon current model guidance – the chance RIGHT NOW is low, at less than 10%," said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in an email to USA TODAY Aug. 11. WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry added a note of caution, telling USA TODAY that "it's worth reiterating that forecasts 5 to 10 days out are subject to large errors, so we'll need to hang tight before confidently giving the U.S. the all-clear." However, even if Erin does avoid landfall on the United States, "there will be a significant increase in seas, surf, and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said. Will Erin hit the US?: Will Tropical Storm Erin hit the US or turn? Here's what early forecasts say. Tropical Storm Erin path tracker Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts. Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts. NHC keeping tabs on 2 other systems in Atlantic, Henriette weakens in Pacific Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the hurricane center said it is tracking a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula later today with no significant increase in organization, the hurricane center said on Aug. 13. Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning Aug. 14, however the NHC gives it a 20% chance of formation through the next seven days. Additionally, the hurricane center said a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing showers and thunderstorms. Limited tropical or subtropical development is still possible on Aug. 13 as the system lingers near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream; however, it is forecast to move northward over cooler waters, which will diminish its chance for tropical development. In the Pacific, Henriette has weakened into a post-tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane center forecasters said Henriette should continue to weaken and dissipate later this week. How do hurricanes form? Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Prepare now for hurricanes Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends. Develop an evacuation plan. If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there. Assemble disaster supplies. Whether you're evacuating or sheltering in place, you're going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for a possibly lengthy aftermath, NOAA said. Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions. Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance checkup to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn't cover flooding, so you'll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, because flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period. Create a family communication plan. NOAA says you should take the time now to write down a hurricane plan and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation. Strengthen your home. Now is the time to improve your home's ability to withstand hurricanes. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and impact glass; seal outside wall openings. Contributing: Doyle Rice, USA TODAY Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@ This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tropical Storm Erin hurricane outlook: Path tracker, spaghetti models
USA Today
7 days ago
- Climate
- USA Today
Tropical Storm Erin to become major hurricane soon: See tracker
Tropical Storm Erin continues to travel west and is on pace to strengthen into the season's first major hurricane by the end of this week, the National Hurricane Center said. According to a 5 a.m. ET advisory from the NHC on Aug. 13, Erin was located about 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds around 45 mph with higher gusts. Erin is currently moving west near 20 mph, and this motion is expected into Thursday, according to forecasters. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin Thursday night and will continue into the weekend, with the center of Erin likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. "Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday," the hurricane center said in the Aug. 13 advisory. A major hurricane is a term used for cyclones rated a Category 3 or higher with sustained wind speeds over 110 mph. Forecasters are urging interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico to monitor the progress of Erin, as the storm could produce impacts on those islands this weekend. The magnitude of those impacts, however, is still not known. Most reliable computer models that meteorologists use to forecast storms show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast in mid-August. "It is too soon to discount – or pinpoint – USA landfall impacts from Erin, but based upon current model guidance – the chance RIGHT NOW is low, at less than 10%," said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in an email to USA TODAY Aug. 11. WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry added a note of caution, telling USA TODAY that "it's worth reiterating that forecasts 5 to 10 days out are subject to large errors, so we'll need to hang tight before confidently giving the U.S. the all-clear." However, even if Erin does avoid landfall on the United States, "there will be a significant increase in seas, surf, and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said. Tropical Storm Erin path tracker Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts. Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts. NHC keeping tabs on 2 other systems in Atlantic, Henriette weakens in Pacific Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the hurricane center said it is tracking a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula later today with no significant increase in organization, the hurricane center said on Aug. 13. Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning Aug. 14, however the NHC gives it a 20% chance of formation through the next seven days. Additionally, the hurricane center said a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing showers and thunderstorms. Limited tropical or subtropical development is still possible on Aug. 13 as the system lingers near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream; however, it is forecast to move northward over cooler waters, which will diminish its chance for tropical development. In the Pacific, Henriette has weakened into a post-tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane center forecasters said Henriette should continue to weaken and dissipate later this week. How do hurricanes form? Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Prepare now for hurricanes Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends. Contributing: Doyle Rice, USA TODAY Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@
USA Today
12-08-2025
- Climate
- USA Today
Will Tropical Storm Erin hit the US or turn? Here's what early forecasts say.
For now, most reliable computer models that meteorologists use show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast later in August. Tropical Storm Erin, which is still thousands of miles from the U.S. East Coast in the central Atlantic Ocean, is traveling west and forecast to strengthen into the season's first hurricane by Aug. 14, the National Hurricane Center said. But will it hit the United States? Most reliable computer models that meteorologists use to forecast storms show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast in mid-August. "It is too soon to discount – or pinpoint – USA landfall impacts from Erin but based upon current model guidance – the chance RIGHT NOW is low, at less than 10%," said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in an email to USA TODAY Aug. 11. WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry added a note of caution, telling USA TODAY that "it's worth reiterating that forecasts 5 to 10 days out are subject to large errors, so we'll need to hang tight before confidently giving the U.S. the all-clear." Maue predicted that "as the Lower 48 comes into view of Erin in the next few days, our models will become more confident/certain on the eventual outcome — so we should know on Thursday (Aug. 14) what will happen." However, even if Erin does avoid landfall on the United States, "there will be a significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said. What forces are guiding Erin? As is often the case with Atlantic hurricanes, Erin's path will be primarily determined by the strength of the Bermuda High, a semi-permanent ridge of high pressure that sits over the western Atlantic Ocean in the summer. The stronger the Bermuda High, the more of a threat Erin is to the United States. A weaker Bermuda High is better news. "Erin will be guided along by the northeast trade winds initially and then the clockwise circulation around the massive Bermuda High over the central Atlantic," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. As of the morning of Aug. 12, the hurricane center reported that Erin should head west and slow down as the Bermuda High weakens slightly. Later in the forecast period, the high is expected to weaken a little more, and a more west-northwestward track is likely. Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said the track forecast is in decent model agreement, "showing a good, tight track consensus through Sunday or Monday, bringing the storm north of the Caribbean islands." Warm waters could fuel major hurricane All signs point to Erin reaching major hurricane status, the hurricane center said. This means the storm will reach Category 3 status, with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph. The forecast is due to warm waters where the storm is expected to track, providing fuel for the storm, the hurricane center said. Low wind sheer could also help Erin strengthen There will also be a lack of wind shear that acts to tear developing hurricanes apart. "Low wind shear (a lack of disruptive winds) north of the Caribbean and much warmer water could really allow Erin to strengthen rapidly late this week and this weekend," AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in an online report. What parts of the US coast are most at risk? AccuWeather said that a major hurricane passing 100 miles east of the United States or west of Bermuda could still bring tropical storm conditions in terms of wind, heavy seas and perhaps heavy rain. "Land that extends farther to the east might be the most prone in this case, such as coastal areas of North Carolina, Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard in New England," said AccuWeather meteorologists Alex Sosnowski and Elizabeth Danco in an online report. In Canada, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could be facing more significant impacts from Erin. How worried should people be? The hurricane center, as always, stressed caution: It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the east coast of the United States, the hurricane center said Aug. 12. However, the hurricane center said "As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place." Checklist: How to prepare your house for a hurricane Lanza said the odds favor a miss: "History favors an out to sea track, though not at 100 percent. Of the 56 known named storms track within 120 nautical miles of Erin's forecast position in 24 hours, 51 of them have gone out to sea, a U.S. hit rate of about 9 percent."
Yahoo
08-08-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Tropical trouble: After Dexter, could 'Erin' and 'Fernand' be next?
As Tropical Storm Dexter races out to sea away from the United States, hurricane forecasters Aug. 4 were watching two other areas of potential concern in the Atlantic, which if they form, could be named Erin and Fernand. One, a tropical wave that's just recently moved off the coast of Africa, could develop into a named storm in the central Atlantic by later in the week, some forecast models show. The second is a developing area of low pressure much closer to home, off the Southeast U.S. coast ‒ a system that promises a dreary week of weather for hordes of beachgoers. "We are now moving into a more active period (of the) Atlantic hurricane season," said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in an Aug. 4 email to USA TODAY. Dexter heads out to sea "Dexter is already exiting stage right, moving east northeast around 10 to 15 mph," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in an Aug. 4 newsletter post. "By the end of the week, Dexter should be post-tropical. Eventually, this will probably end up in the British Isles, either as part of another typical European storm or as a passing disturbance. Either way, it's mostly just a curiosity than anything else." WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, in an email to USA TODAY, said that "Dexter, while posing no threat to land, is the opening act for the show the Atlantic's threatening to put on behind it." Out of Africa Exiting the coast of Africa late on Aug. 3 was a robust tropical wave that models suggest has a good chance of becoming a named storm (likely Erin) and possibly our first hurricane by Aug. 9 to 11 over the central Atlantic, Lowry said. "In a few days, environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of this week as it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic," the National Hurricane Center said. Beyond Aug. 11, forecast models diverge, with the Euro curling the system out to sea and the American GFS continuing a track west-northwestward toward the U.S. East Coast, Lowry reported. "We won't have much confidence in a forecast for this one till we see if something actually develops and where," said University of Miami meteorologist Andy Hazelton in a post on X. More: A key sign of hurricane activity has flipped into high gear Soggy Southeast The National Hurricane Center has also highlighted an area of concern off the Southeast U.S. coast. The hurricane center has given the system a 30% chance of development, and models support 'something' weak developing and then moving westward, which equals more rainfall for drenched Georgia, Florida, and Carolinas, but the upper-level environment (for full tropical development) is hostile, said Maue. Later in the first week of August, we're probably going to see a weak area of low pressure develop along a remnant stationary front off the Southeast U.S. coast, Lanza said. "Unlike Dexter, this won't get whisked out to sea. Rather, it looks likely to just kind of sit and spin for a bit." If it gets a name, which seems unlikely at this point, it might be Fernand, depending on when Erin gets named. Regardless of whether it gets a name, "this may make for a somewhat dreary week along the Carolina coast," Lanza said. "Rain totals may begin to add up some in this area as well through the week." This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: After Tropical Storm Dexter, could 'Erin' and 'Fernand' be next? Solve the daily Crossword
