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Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Modi heads to China — a delicate step in the dragon-elephant tango
Synopsis Amidst fragile relations and border tensions, Prime Minister Modi's upcoming visit to China signals a calculated step in geopolitics. Facilitated by a pact at the BRICS summit, the visit, tied to the SCO summit, aims to foster regional stability and address trade imbalances. India navigates complex relationships, balancing engagement with China and continued collaboration with the US. Just a year ago, the idea of Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting China would have seemed far-fetched. Relations between the two nations were fragile. The border in eastern Ladakh was quiet but tense, with troop disengagement at key friction points still incomplete. Fast forward to 2025, and Modi's upcoming trip to Tianjin feels less like a gamble and more like a calculated step in a complex geopolitical dance. The foundation for this cautious reset was laid last October, when Modi and President Xi Jinping agreed at the BRICS summit that 'disputes and differences would not be allowed to disturb border peace.' That pact has held firm, setting the stage for Modi's visit, official confirmation aside. Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is scheduled to visit India next week to meet NSA Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. visit is officially tied to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, a 10-member Eurasian security grouping led by China and Russia, often seen as a counterweight to NATO. Modi's last trip to China, in 2018, was also SCO-related. India's position in the SCO is unique, it refrains from endorsing projects like the Belt and Road Initiative and keeps its distance from China-centric economic roadmaps. Yet the SCO serves India's interests, from counterterrorism in Afghanistan to promoting connectivity that respects sovereignty and strengthening ties with Central Asia. Modi has used the SCO Heads of State Council meetings to spotlight cross-border terrorism, without directly naming Pakistan. The forum has also become a neutral space for India and China to engage after tensions spiked in 2020's Galwan clash. The so-called 'Moscow Consensus,' reached months after Galwan during an SCO foreign ministers' meeting, is a clear example. President Xi's participation in the 2023 SCO summit Modi hosted virtually further cemented the platform's hasn't attended every SCO summit. He skipped the Kazakhstan meeting last year. This trip signals recognition of the Tianjin summit's importance to China and the global stage. It's not just about bilateral ties, it's about maintaining a steady hand in regional geopolitics and securing support for India's upcoming BRICS policy has occasionally complicated India's external engagements, but the India-China thaw started long before trade tensions hit. Agreements to end the military standoff in eastern Ladakh were reached before the US elections. Modi's China visit conveys a clear message: India is ready for a functional relationship with Beijing, as long as border stability is preserved.'When NSA Doval visited China last December, both sides agreed to maintain peace on the ground so that 'issues on the border do not hold back the normal development of bilateral relations,'' the reports note. India has maintained this balance despite China's military ties with Pakistan or tensions in the South China Modi-Xi meeting could include announcements like resuming direct flights and rebuilding trust in trade, investment, and technology. India hopes China will ease trade restrictions and increase imports to reduce the $100 billion trade deficit. China, for its part, seeks a transparent, non-discriminatory environment for its companies.'The dragon-elephant tango may have just started, but in these circumstances, it will remain accident-prone,' analysts say, recalling highs and lows, from the early Modi years to Doklam, informal summits, and Galwan. Modi's recent remark, endorsed by Beijing, that 'competition should not be allowed to turn into conflict,' signals the cautious approach both sides are aiming visit doesn't mean India is abandoning the US. Modi has met Xi at previous SCO summits without affecting India's strategic autonomy. Today, attention is heightened because of US-India trade tensions, including tariffs on Indian oil imports from Russia. Yet India continues to pursue defence, technology, and energy collaboration with the China visit asserts India's position against unilateralism while keeping the door open with America. A potential resolution in Ukraine could also ease some tariff will closely monitor three issues: The US's continued commitment to the Indo-Pacific amid potential trade concessions with China, particularly as India hosts the upcoming Quad summit in November. Counterterrorism cooperation, which may be affected by the US recalibrating its Pakistan policy. The proposed H-1B visa overhaul, which could impact Indian professionals in IT and healthcare, potentially straining people-to-people and economic ties. These challenges will test India's diplomatic finesse and its ability to balance competing global priorities. With inputs from TOI
India Today
4 days ago
- Business
- India Today
Why China's Xinjiang-Tibet rail plan near India border is a red flag
Even as efforts are on to bring derailed India-China relations back on track, Beijing is ready with plans to build a railway line in Tibet that will run close to the Indian borders along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).Both nations are in the process of resuming direct flights and trade through select border posts—seen as a huge mark-up in ties since the lows of the summer of 2020 when Chinese troops made incursions into eastern Ladakh and a deadly physical clash occurred between personnel of the two militaries in the Galwan railway line development comes at a time Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Tianjin in China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit later this month. It will be Modi's first trip to China since has welcomed Modi's visit and described the SCO Summit as a 'gathering of solidarity, friendship and fruitful results'. Modi's visit to Tianjin will follow a series of SCO-related engagements in China in recent months by defence minister Rajnath Singh, national security advisor Ajit Doval and external affairs minister S. Jaishankar. India-China relations are showing signs of cautious improvement, a key highlight of which has been the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra pilgrimage in Tibet in 2025 after a gap of five has begun preparations for starting the Xinjiang-Tibet railway project, which will link Hotan in Xinjiang (East Turkestan) to Lhasa in Tibet by 2035. The project will span about 2,000 km and connect with the existing Lhasa-Shigatse rail line, creating a strategic plateau rail network of approximately 5,000 km centred around new railway project is seen as vital to China's 'Border Infrastructure Strategy', running very close to India's borders near Ladakh and the LAC. It will pass through disputed areas, such as Aksai Chin, allowing China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) to swiftly move troops, equipment and supplies to these sensitive watchers claim that while it is framed as a development project, the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway is a calculated effort to reinforce military control and extend territorial influence in contested areas. By embedding critical infrastructure within sensitive border regions, China threatens regional stability and challenges India's sovereignty. The railway project's dual-use nature and grey-zone tactics reflect a broader strategy of coercion disguised as connectivity. India must stay vigilant, accelerate its defence infrastructure development and strengthen international partnerships to effectively counter China's expansionist ambitions and safeguard its national security, the observers Xinjiang-Tibet Railway Company that is managing the project is wholly owned by the China State Railway Group, with an initial registered capital of 95 billion yuan (around $13.2 billion). This railway is one of the four planned lines connecting Tibet with China's western regions. While the Qinghai-Tibet Railway has been operational since 2006, the others are still under construction, with overall costs expected to exceed initial estimates, similar to the Sichuan-Tibet and Qinghai-Tibet railways, each costing over 300 billion proposed railway line will cross some of the highest and toughest terrains on the Tibetan Plateau, including the Kunlun, Karakoram, Kailash and Himalayan ranges. It faces severe engineering challenges in the form of glaciers, frozen rivers, permafrost, extremely low temperatures (up to minus 40C) and extremely low oxygen levels (about 44 per cent less than normal). Building this railway line requires advanced technology, significant investment and strong environmental has planned five railway lines into Tibet: the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway, the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, the Gansu-Tibet Railway, the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the Yunnan-Tibet Railway. The Qinghai-Tibet Railway has been opened to traffic while construction of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway is underway since to Geeta Kochhar, senior assistant professor at the Centre for Chinese and South East Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, China is using these networks to suit two purposes: give a boost to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project as well as make cross-border connections with neighbouring countries for export of goods and strategic military alliances. For instance, China is planning to expand its railway network into presented as an economic growth effort for Tibet, observers say the railway line has a clear military purpose of boosting China's ability to deploy forces swiftly and tightening its control over border areas. This infrastructure greatly strengthens China's military capabilities and offers it a significant advantage over India during potential conflicts or standoffs. China also uses tactics like creating 'border defence villages', wherein residents help maintain a continuous presence, gradually extending territorial control through incremental 'salami slicing' without provoking full-scale conflict. This gradual change of facts on the ground increases tensions and threatens India's border security, the observers Sriparna Pathak, professor of China Studies at the O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonepat, Haryana, points to the critical importance of the timing of Chinese moves. 'China was, is and always will be the biggest security threat to India. This is visible even more so through the dams it is unleashing on India, this railway line that it is creating, and in the ways it supported Pakistan during Operation Sindoor—all while claiming to have India's back against the United States,' said Dr response, India has accelerated its border infrastructure push. The strategic Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DSDBO) road—the sole land link to the Galwan Valley—is being reinforced to handle tanks and long-range missile carriers. To cut reliance on this exposed route, a stealthier 130-km alternative road is under construction, beyond the line of sight of Chinese new measures include deploying larger workforces, hiking wages to speed up construction and upgrading surveillance and logistics networks. Together, these steps aim to enable rapid troop deployment in crises and bolster India's readiness against China's expanding footprint along the to India Today Magazine- EndsTune InMust Watch
India Today
08-08-2025
- Politics
- India Today
China welcomes PM's SCO Summit visit, calls it gathering of solidarity, friendship
China on Friday welcomed Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit later this month. This will be PM Modi's first trip to China since foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said the summit, to be held from August 31 to September 1, will see participation from leaders of over 20 countries, including all SCO member states and heads of 10 international organisations. Calling it the largest SCO meet since the grouping's inception, Guo Jiakun said, 'We believe the summit will be a gathering of solidarity, friendship and fruitful results.'advertisementPM Modi is expected to reach Tianjin after a stop in Japan, where he will hold the annual India-Japan Summit with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on August 30. His upcoming visit to Tianjin will follow a series of SCO-related engagements in China by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in recent trip comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions, including US President Donald Trump's criticism of Brics nations — several of which are SCO members — for buying Russian oil. Russia is set to send representatives to the summit, though it is unclear if President Vladimir Putin will June, India had refused to sign an SCO defence ministers' document that, according to sources, omitted references to the Pahalgam terror attack, which killed 26 people, while mentioning unrest in Pakistan's Balochistan province. However, in July, China strongly condemned the Pahalgam attack, calling for greater regional counterterrorism SCO currently has nine member states- China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Iran, and Uzbekistan.- EndsMust Watch
