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The Independent
21-03-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Ballistic missile interceptors and pamphlets dropping in France: How Europe is preparing for nuclear war
The pace of re-armament in Europe is accelerating and going in many unexpected directions. The most recent was a report in the French newspaper, Le Figaro, that the French SGDSN (General Secretariat for Defence and National Security) has been preparing a new pamphlet providing advice on how the population might prepare itself for a conflict, including nuclear war. For those who can remember the 1980s, this has echoes of the (at the time derided) pamphlet issued in the UK, 'Protect And Survive'. France has not yet published and released its version – but it shows where the focus is for many European governments right now. In November, Sweden updated its advice to the population about how to prepare for a war. Called, 'In case of crisis or war', the 32-page pamphlet covers what stocks you should keep at home, public alarms and warnings in the event of a crisis, and what to do about your pet! It even has a link to the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (which published the booklet) to an interactive map for the locations of all the civil defence shelters across Sweden – most blocks of flats have one. An earlier version also had tips on guerilla warfare should an enemy invade. All of the Nordic nations, as well as the Baltic States have now issued similar guidance, and homeland defence is not some abstract concept – it is very real. Those states that border Russia, or are in close proximity to it view the actual threat with the seriousness that it deserves. As one example, last year, Sweden upped its home defence budget from SEK8.5bn (£650m) to SEK15bn (£1.15bn) over four years – and this might yet be accelerated. Quite a lot of the spending is set to be on stocks of things such as food, shelters, and medical supplies. If the same percentage of spending in Sweden on home defence was to be spent in the UK, the budget would be over £5bn annually. There is another element to preparations in the event of a conflict: air defences. Many European countries have been investing billions into advanced surface-to-air missiles, especially the US-supplied Patriot system. A key capability of the system is that it has shown that it can intercept quite a wide range of ballistic missiles, as well as advanced cruise missiles. When Ronald Reagan talked in the 1980s about creating a 'Star Wars' defence shield against Soviet missiles, he was laughed at, as the science/engineering at the time could not produce the radars, the missiles, or the command systems to undertake such complex operations. But the video of an Israeli Arrow 3 missile intercepting an Iranian ballistic missile in space or reports of HMS Diamond shooting down Houthi ballistic missiles in the Red Sea shows that a lot of aspects of Reagan's vision are now eminently achievable – albeit at a huge price. What could that be for the UK, where we have absolutely no credible surface-to-air missile defences (apart from a few destroyers, two of which are about to decamp 8,000 miles on a deployment to Asia)? Looking at air defence programmes in Germany, as well as the cash-rich Gulf States, coming up with a 'pretty good' air defence missile system in the UK that could take on many ballistic and cruise missiles would cost £15bn as a start. A more comprehensive air defence missile system? North of £25bn. Put simply, the cost of a weapon that has a good chance of intercepting a ballistic missile is not cheap – but the cost of the damage that the missile can do is even higher. 'Third Party, Fire and Theft' missile defence is acceptable, right up until casualties are suffered. But as the spectre of nuclear stand-offs looms, there is a further issue to consider: an independent European nuclear multi-layer deterrent. The MoD website says about the nuclear deterrent: 'The UK's independent nuclear deterrent has existed for over 60 years to deter the most extreme threats to our national security and way of life, helping to guarantee our safety, and that of our Nato allies.' There has always been an element of the UK deterrent being at the disposal of Nato. France has not done this for decades, although Emmanuel Macron has been much more open to Paris adopting a similar position to the UK, while still keeping the French deterrent independent. Taking the French and the UK strategic deterrents together, this would provide a more-or-less credible top-level nuclear deterrent for Euro-Nato. Where there are serious doubts is in the tactical nuclear deterrent area. The UK gave up tactical nuclear weapons (smaller yield warheads, ones that can be fired from systems as small as an artillery piece). France is now the only European country currently to have its own tactical nuclear weapons. France's non-strategic deterrent, the current ASMP-A near-hypersonic missile, is launched from Rafale fighter bombers, and is being replaced over the next five years by a longer-ranged, faster missile. Again, Macron has posed the question as to whether this part of France's deterrent – a nuclear umbrella – could be placed at Europe's service. At a recent speech at the airbase that contains the air-launched nuclear deterrent, he suggested that elements could be based closer to Germany – heading east. For the rest of European Nato, various countries have offered their air forces to carry and deliver US-supplied (and controlled) tactical nuclear bombs. Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands all have (US-dictated) aircraft dedicated to this mission. However, the political ructions of the past weeks have caused many to have doubts as to whether the USA would release these weapons if there was a crisis (Russia being the opponent) in Europe. The issue about the reliability of the USA over nuclear weapons has had echoes in the UK. In talks with MoD sources last year, raising the issue about whether Washington would release Trident nuclear missiles (the warheads are UK sovereign) to Britain was met with derision. However, whether a Royal Navy Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarine would be guaranteed access to the Trident missile stocks is now no longer a given. When people talk about the US having a 'kill switch' on the UK nuclear deterrent, there is no big red switch somewhere in the Pentagon to power down the UK's Trident missiles. However, access to the stocks could be denied, and if the UK cannot regularly rotate missiles, they would become ineffective over time. This is, in effect, the 'kill switch' people are now concerned about. The solution? Well, over tactical nuclear weapons, Poland has talked for some years now about acquiring these weapons. Put simply, the history of Poland is one of being dominated or sold out by larger powers. Warsaw is reading the lessons of Ukraine bargaining away its stock of nuclear weapons/missiles – and trust in France, Germany, and the UK was already low before the 2022 invasion. Now, trust in the USA has also taken a hit, so even offering to host US tactical nuclear weapons isn't good enough. In short order, only the UK and France could get a tactical nuclear weapons programme together – and the good news is that the two countries already share a series of test and validation tools for warheads. On top of this, the UK has announced that it is resuming the production of highly enriched uranium, the key component for new tactical nuclear weapons. It would be far from inconceivable for a new generation of tactical warheads to be built, and there are a variety of options for missiles to carry those. The 'Step Too Far' for the UK is whether the reliance on the USA for the Trident strategic missiles has ended. If reliability of the USA is now at such a low ebb, might the UK swap horses? An industrial source inside the UK's nuclear enterprise told me: 'There's, actually, never a better time than now if we are to swap Trident for the French M51 [submarine-launched ballistic missile] – we are early enough in the Dreadnought programme to achieve it.' Almost all of this would have been completely unthinkable even six months ago – that's how fast things are moving. Anyone suggesting that the UK government would need to issue a pamphlet about building your own shelter in your house would have been completely ridiculed. But look East – this is exactly what a dozen countries are doing and have been doing for over a year. The previous Conservative government did start to look at issuing advice – suggestions? – about what every household should stock up on to ensure 'resilience' against natural disasters, but also conflict: wind-up radios, head torches, water – and at the time, the wider reaction was pretty much the same as for the 1980s 'Protect And Survive' pamphlet. It is now to Starmer's government to re-visit this and take home(land) defence seriously – and also nuclear defence too.
Yahoo
20-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
The European countries preparing their citizens for possible war
The French government has created a survival guide for citizens on how to cope with nationwide crises including a nuclear attack. Due to be sent out before the summer, the content of the booklet is intended 'to ensure the resilience of populations in the face of all types of crises, whether natural, technological, cyber or security'. The guide also tells citizens to 'protect yourself, but also protect the people around you'. It explains how to register as a reserve to carry out civic service if needed – be it military, digital or communal. The 30-page booklet also contains practical advice on what to do in the event of a climate disaster or industrial accident – including building up essential supplies like bottles of water, torches, batteries and first aid kids. The guide, which is expected to be distributed via official websites, social media and discussed in schools, follows the lead of other European countries. Officials from the General Secretariat for Defence and National Security (SGDSN), insisting that the booklet was 'absolutely not' to prepare the population for 'the prospect of war – unlike in Sweden'. However, while it does not specifically mention the threat of invasion, it comes in the shadow of Russia's ongoing war with Ukraine – and the fears that Vladimir Putin could invade other countries and escalate a wider war with the continent. So what are countries in Europe doing to prepare their citizens in case of conflict? Yahoo explains... In November last year, Sweden updated its guide on how to survive in the event of a war. The country has faced escalating threats from Russia – particularly after it joined Nato last year. However, the updated guidance did not mention Russia by name. Nevertheless, Russia would likely be the aggressor in the event of a war and citizens have been told to 'mentally prepare' for the possibility of an armed conflict. The 32-page booklet, titled 'If Crisis or War Comes', was distributed to every household and was it was updated for the first time since 2018 to include the threat of war. It includes advice on stockpiling essentials like water and canned food to last for at least a week, while also gives detailed instructions on how to shelter in the event of air raid sirens going off. Conscription is mandatory for everyone in Sweden over the age of 18, while everyone aged 16-70 is also part of Sweden's 'total defence' – and are obligated to contribute in the event of a war. The guide states: 'If Sweden is attacked, we will never surrender." Finland shares a land border with Russia that stretches over 800 miles – potentially putting the country at greater risk of a potential invasion by Putin's forces. While the country does not have a physical booklet, an online guide called 'Preparing for Incidents and Crises' was made available in November last year. The guide, which does not mention Russia by name, offers advice on how to prepare for emergencies – including military conflicts, cyberattacks, power outages and disinformation. Again, it advises citizens to stockpile food and water for at least three days, as well as pet food and an alternative energy source to deal with the sub-zero climates in the country. Finland has compulsory military or alternative services for all males over 18. Germany's 'Guide for Emergency Preparedness and Correct Action in Emergency Situations' was last updated in 2022 but does give advice for citizens at a time of war. The 48-page booklet is available both online and in physical form and says German citizens should stockpile 10 days of food and five days of water, as well as cash and medicine. Candles, torches and batteries are recommended in the event of a power cut, while there are tips on packing a 'grab bag' if people need to evacuate quickly. Last year, Germany also updated its outlines of wartime plans, including the armed forces beginning training companies on how to respond in the event of a conflict. Compulsory military service was abolished in Germany in 2011 but the debate on conscription has been brought up in the country once again due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Norway's 'You Are Part of Norway's Emergency Preparedness' was issued in 2018 and while it has not been updated since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, it is nevertheless relevant for a Nato country that shares a border with Russia. The 20-page booklet advises stockpiling food for at least a week, as well as cooking equipment and sleeping bags. It states that people should stay indoors at a time of war, unless there are evacuation orders, and securing digital devices in the event of a cyber attack. Military service is also compulsory for men and women aged 19-44. Denmark's 'Prepare for Crises' was relaunched digitally in 2024 and prepares citizens for crises like conflict, and natural disasters. Another country close to Russia physically, Denmark advises people to stockpile enough food and water for three days and keep a crisis kit containing torches, batteries, first aid and medicine. It sets out what to do if hearing a siren and advises using basements for shelter in the event of a conflict, as well as securing online accounts from cyber threats from countries like Russia. Males over 18 are also subject to compulsory military or alternative services. Lithuania is physically close to Russia and Belarus – a country aligned with Russia and sympathetic to Putin's aims. Its LT72 website was last updated in 2023 and its guide is distributed to all households and schools in the country. Again, stockpiling is key – the guide advises enough food and water for 72 hours, as well as a first aid kit, torch, money and a radio. Staying indoors are inside public shelters are recommended in the event of hearing sirens, while it also includes a section on resisting occupation. The booklet advises people to disrupt occupiers non-violently, but also recommends damaging infrastructure to disrupt takeover if people are willing. Lithuania does have military conscription and it is compulsory for selected males aged 18-23. While the UK does not have a physical guide for citizens at a time of emergency or war, there are plenty of resources online. The 'Prepare' page offers advice for people in England in how to deal with things like floods, including stockpiling three days' worth of food and water, as well as first aid kits, torches, batteries and money. The UK Emergency Alerts system sends phone warnings for life-threatening events like terror attacks or natural disasters, while the government recommends making a household plan with emergency contacts and learning first aid. Unlike some other countries, it avoids advice on conflict but there have been calls for the UK to be more like Sweden and be prepared for war. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the UK defence staff, said Britain would benefit in looking at Sweden for their lead at a time of increased risk from Russia. He told the Berlin security conference in 2024: 'We don't have some of the civil aspects or planning aspects that other countries within Nato have as part of their traditions. We are having those conversations to learn from our colleagues and see what might be appropriate for ourselves.' He added: 'The conclusions from Ukraine speak for themselves. Deterrence doesn't start at the barrel of a gun. It starts with a society that can muster a credible answer to the threat of an armed attack.'
Yahoo
20-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Survival manual to be sent to every French household by this summer
The French government is preparing to send some literature to every household this summer. A new tome for the annual 'A book for the holidays' campaign? How delightful. Well, not so wholesome or cheery as it turns out, as the literature in question is a twenty-page survival manual which details the steps to take in the event of an armed conflict or any crisis. Modelled on a similar Norwegian booklet and the Swedish model, 'Om krisen eller kriget kommer' ('In case of crisis or war'), which was distributed to households in 2018, the booklet will detail "all the good gestures to adopt in the event of an imminent threat in France', a government source told Europe 1. These threats include armed conflict, as well as natural disasters such as flooding or a new health epidemic. The publication is reportedly divided into three distinct parts: 'Protecting yourself' - a section intended to raise solidarity when it comes to protecting oneself and neighbours. This first part also lists the survival kit to have at home in the event of a serious crisis. The kit includes at least six litres of bottled water, ten canned goods, batteries and a flashlight in case of a power cut. 'What to do in the event of an alert' - a part detailing the actions one must take in the event of an imminent threat. This chapter lists emergency numbers, radio frequencies, as well as tips like closing all doors in the event of a nuclear accident. 'Get involved' - this final section explains how to sign up to a reserve force, whether military or communal. "This document aims to ensure the resilience of populations in the face of all types of crises, whether natural, technological, cyber, or security-related,' according to a statement from the government. 'This draft document, whose conditions for distribution to the French public have not yet been defined, is currently being approved by the Prime Minister.' The title also has not been defined, and sources say that the two main options are: 'French Resilience" or "All Resilient'. As you can imagine, the announcement of the distribution of a survival manual has sparked criticism online, with many calling it a waste of money, some likening it to Cold War brochures, and others writing: "Stop creating a climate of fear and anxiety." Indeed, while hardly surprising in the wake of President Emmanuel Macron's March 5 speech, in which he declared that the threat of armed conflict with Russia concerned all European countries and called for strengthening the continent's defenses, a survival booklet doesn't exactly smack of reassurance. However, as indicated by the General Secretariat for Defense and National Security (SGDSN), this guide is an integral part of the national resilience strategy, initiated after the Covid-19 pandemic - and therefore predates the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Still, until the pamphlet arrives in letterboxes, let's just hope the advice goes beyond 'close your doors in case of a nuclear blast'. Anxiety-inducing is one thing, but thinking that closed doors are going to prevent... well, anything... or that people would rush to crack open a window in order to take in as much of the nuclear mushroom as possible is insulting. Hell of a sunrise, though. Also, no mention of what to do in case of a zombie apocalypse... Part 4, maybe?
Euronews
20-03-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
Survival manual to be sent to every French household by this summer
The French government is preparing to send some literature to every household this summer. A new tome for the annual 'A book for the holidays' campaign? How delightful. Well, not so wholesome or cheery as it turns out, as the literature in question is a twenty-page survival manual which details the steps to take in the event of an armed conflict or any crisis. Modelled on a similar Norwegian booklet and the Swedish model, 'Om krisen eller kriget kommer' ('In case of crisis or war'), which was distributed to households in 2018, the booklet will detail "all the good gestures to adopt in the event of an imminent threat in France', a government source told Europe 1. These threats include armed conflict, as well as natural disasters such as flooding or a new health epidemic. The publication is reportedly divided into three distinct parts: 'Protecting yourself' - a section intended to raise solidarity when it comes to protecting oneself and neighbours. This first part also lists the survival kit to have at home in the event of a serious crisis. The kit includes at least six litres of bottled water, ten canned goods, batteries and a flashlight in case of a power cut. 'What to do in the event of an alert' - a part detailing the actions one must take in the event of an imminent threat. This chapter lists emergency numbers, radio frequencies, as well as tips like closing all doors in the event of a nuclear accident. 'Get involved' - this final section explains how to sign up to a reserve force, whether military or communal. "This document aims to ensure the resilience of populations in the face of all types of crises, whether natural, technological, cyber, or security-related,' according to a statement from the government. 'This draft document, whose conditions for distribution to the French public have not yet been defined, is currently being approved by the Prime Minister.' The title also has not been defined, and sources say that the two main options are: 'French Resilience" or "All Resilient'. As you can imagine, the announcement of the distribution of a survival manual has sparked criticism online, with many calling it a waste of money, some likening it to Cold War brochures, and others writing: "Stop creating a climate of fear and anxiety." Indeed, while hardly surprising in the wake of President Emmanuel Macron's March 5 speech, in which he declared that the threat of armed conflict with Russia concerned all European countries and called for strengthening the continent's defenses, a survival booklet doesn't exactly smack of reassurance. However, as indicated by the General Secretariat for Defense and National Security (SGDSN), this guide is an integral part of the national resilience strategy, initiated after the Covid-19 pandemic - and therefore predates the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Still, until the pamphlet arrives in letterboxes, let's just hope the advice goes beyond 'close your doors in case of a nuclear blast'. Anxiety-inducing is one thing, but thinking that closed doors are going to prevent... well, anything... or that people would rush to crack open a window in order to take in as much of the nuclear mushroom as possible is insulting. Hell of a sunrise, though. Also, no mention of what to do in case of a zombie apocalypse... Part 4, maybe? J.K. Rowling appears to have taken an indirect jab at Harry Potter stars Daniel Radcliffe, Emma Watson, and Rupert Grint in a recent social media post on X, reigniting tensions with the actors. On Tuesday (18 March), when asked on social media, 'What actor/actress instantly ruins a movie for you?' Rowling replied, 'Three guesses. Sorry, but that was irresistible,' along with laughing emojis. Many have interpreted it as a clear dig at Radcliffe, Watson, and Grint. Once closely connected, the actors have distanced themselves from Rowling following a string of controversial statements she has made about transgender rights. Since 2020, the author has repeatedly shared views widely condemned as transphobic, including her assertion that trans women 'are not women' and that she would 'rather go to jail' than use a trans person's preferred pronouns. Labeled a 'TERF' (trans-exclusionary radical feminist) by critics, Rowling has not only embraced the term but has worn it as a badge of honour. Radcliffe, Watson and Grint have all spoken out against her views and defended transgender women and men. Last year, Radcliffe told The Atlantic that Rowling's views 'make me really sad', adding: 'Because I do look at the person that I met, the times that we met, and the books that she wrote, and the world that she created, and all of that is to me so deeply empathic.' Watson expressed her support, stating: "Trans people are who they say they are and deserve to live their lives without being constantly questioned or told they aren't who they say they are." Meanwhile Rupert Grint said: "I firmly stand with the trans community... Trans women are women. Trans men are men. We should all be entitled to live with love and without judgment." Conclave star Ralph Fiennes, who played Lord Voldemort in the beloved film franchise, came to the author's defence: "The verbal abuse directed at her is disgusting, it's appalling.' Rowling previously said that she wouldn't forgive the Harry Potter stars who have criticised her views. 'Celebs who cosied up to a movement intent on eroding women's hard-won rights and who used their platforms to cheer on the transitioning of minors can save their apologies for traumatised detransitioners and vulnerable women reliant on single sex spaces,' she wrote on X. The Harry Potter films are currently being reimagined into a HBO TV series, to which Rowling is an executive producer. Casting is underway. Unknowns are reportedly being scouted to play the roles of the Potter, Ron Weasley and Hermione Granger. Meanwhile, six-time Emmy-winning actor John Lithgow has been confirmed to play the Hogwarts headmaster Albus Dumbledore, stepping into the role previously played by Richard Harris, Michael Gambon and Jude Law. HBO have defended the author's involvement in the TV seires despite controversy surrounding her name. 'J.K. Rowling has a right to express her personal views. We will remain focused on the development of the new series, which will only benefit from her involvement.'
