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Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Gold price rises 200% in six years. How expensive it may become in next 5 years?
Gold prices have delivered stellar returns to investors in 2025. The precious yellow metal on MCX has ascended over 30 per cent, other risky assets like silver surged nearly 35%, and the Nifty 50 index has risen around 4.65 per cent. The BSE Sensex has given around 3.75 per cent, while some Sensex heavyweights like Reliance share price have generated a little over 14 per cent in 2025. Nifty 50 heavyweight HDFC Bank shares have surged around 12.50 per cent. So, gold and silver have outshone other risky assets by a massive margin in YTD. The precious bullions have dominated the market in the long term, too. In six years, the MCX gold rate has risen from around ₹ 32,000 per 10 gm to around 97,800 per 10 gm, delivering a rise of over 200 per cent. According to commodity market experts, gold prices are expected to dominate the list of risky assets. The bears may deliver at least 40 per cent in the next five years, whereas the bulls may become expensive by over 125 per cent. Speaking on the gold price rally in recent years, Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, said, "Gold has long held deep emotional and financial value in Indian households. It has also gained prominence as a strategic asset among global central banks in recent years. This shift has accelerated over the past two years, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which led to the freezing of a significant portion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves. As geopolitical tensions rise and tariff disputes continue, central banks increasingly turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a steady rise in its price." Santosh Meena of Swastika Inestmart said several key factors drive this renewed interest in gold. One of the most notable is the weakening confidence in the US dollar. Many central banks are diversifying their reserves to reduce dependency on the dollar, and gold is emerging as the preferred alternative. Another major driver is the rising US debt-to-GDP ratio, which raises concerns about the long-term stability of the dollar and further enhances gold's appeal as a store of value. The overall geopolitical instability climate also pushes institutional and retail investors toward gold as a reliable hedge against uncertainty. On why gold prices have risen in the last six years, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said, "Gold has delivered outstanding returns of nearly 200% over the past six years, rallying from around ₹ . 34,200 in June 2019 to approximately ₹ . 97,800 per 10 grams in 2025. This exceptional performance has been driven by global macroeconomic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, ultra-loose monetary policies, geopolitical tensions, and heightened financial market uncertainty." The SS WealthStreet expert said that the outbreak of the pandemic unleashed massive economic disruption and led to unprecedented monetary and fiscal interventions. Central banks across the globe slashed interest rates to near zero. They rolled out large-scale quantitative easing programs, injecting liquidity into the system and fueling inflation and currency debasement concerns. Simultaneously, real interest rates turned negative, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Governments deployed aggressive stimulus measures, further expanding the money supply and reinforcing gold's role as a hedge against systemic risk. Sugandha Sachdeva went on to add that a string of geopolitical and financial flashpoints has further reinforced gold's appeal: 1] Russia-Ukraine war (Feb 2022); 2] US banking turmoil (SVB, Credit Suisse – early 2023); 3] Middle East conflict (Oct 2023); 4] Escalating US tariff war under President Trump (2025); 5] Record Central bank gold purchases; and 6] Persistent de-dollarisation efforts globally. "These tailwinds have propelled gold to fresh record highs of over ₹ 1,00,178 per 10 gm in 2025, and the environment remains supportive for structurally elevated prices over the long term," said Sugandha Sachdeva, adding, "While past returns may not be repeated at the same scale, multiple macroeconomic and structural forces point to further upside in gold over the next five years. The continued central bank purchases, strong ETF inflows, de-dollarisation drive, and rising debt levels in the US all point towards prices being meaningfully higher from current levels." On whether gold will be able to deliver this stellar performance again, "The ongoing strategic accumulation of gold by global central banks is likely to be a key pillar that would provide further strength to gold prices. Gold now comprises almost 20% of total central bank reserves against the US dollar's declining share, down from 73% in 2001 to 58% in 2025. Gold has emerged as a key beneficiary of central banks' diversification efforts. A shift towards a multi-polar currency world is eroding the dollar's dominance. Volatility in currency markets makes gold more attractive as a stable reserve asset. Furthermore, burgeoning public debt levels, particularly in the US, raise long-term fiscal risks and erode confidence in fiat currencies, making gold a crucial hedge against currency debasement." Sugaqndha said that ongoing and potential future conflicts (including economic, political, and military) will continue to elevate safe-haven demand. Beyond institutional buying, new channels of demand are emerging, such as China's insurance sector reportedly allocating 1% of its Assets Under Management (AUM) to gold, signifying growing institutional interest. ETF inflows and investor allocations toward non-yielding assets could remain strong if real yields stay suppressed. Moreover, a structurally weak rupee amplifies domestic gold price performance. Sugandha Sachdeva of SS Wealthstreet advised investors to continue investing in gold: "Gold continues to prove its mettle as a long-term store of value and a portfolio diversifier. Amid ongoing global uncertainties, rising global debt, elevated geopolitical risks, currency volatility, and policy-induced distortions, the yellow metal will likely remain a core hedge against systemic risks. Investors may consider systematic accumulation during price corrections and hold a strategic allocation over the next five years to enhance risk-adjusted returns." Regarding how much gold may become expensive in the next five years, Sugandha Sachdeva said, "Gold remains subject to intermittent corrections due to changing interest rate expectations or temporary strength in the US dollar. However, the major floor level is expected around ₹ 75,000-72000 per 10 gm, providing a strong downside cushion to prices. However, the gold price pattern suggests around ₹ 1,05,000 per 10 gm for the year, while for the next 5 years it could trend towards around ₹ 1,35,000 per gm to anywhere around ₹ 1,40,000 per 10 gm." However, Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart believes that stellar gold price returns may continue in the next five years. Geopolitical tension and a trade war are expected to keep the demand for gold as a safe haven intact. "In terms of performance, gold has delivered an impressive 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the Indian market over the past five years. If this trajectory continues, gold prices could reach ₹ 2,25,000 per 10 grams within five years. While short-term volatility is natural, the broader structural case for gold remains intact, supported by sustained central bank buying, currency debasement concerns, and the asset's historical role as a financial haven," Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart concluded. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
RTÉ News
23-06-2025
- Business
- RTÉ News
Oil surges to five-month high after US hits Iran's key nuclear sites
Oil prices jumped today to their highest since January as the United States' weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities stoked supply concerns. Brent crude futures were up $1.52 or 1.97% to $78.53 a barrel as of 0503 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $1.51 or 2.04% to $75.35. Both contracts jumped by more than 3% earlier in the session to $81.40 and $78.40, respectively, touching five-month highs before giving up some gains. The rise in prices came after US President Donald Trump said he had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran is OPEC's third-largest crude producer. Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global crude supply flows. "The current geopolitical escalation provides the fundamental catalyst for (Brent) prices to traverse higher and potentially spiral towards $100, with $120 per barrel appearing increasingly plausible," said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet. Iran's Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament had approved a measure to close the strait. Iran has in the past threatened to close the strait but has never followed through. Iran and Israel exchanged air and missile strikes on Monday, as global tensions rose over Tehran's expected response to a US attack on its nuclear facilities. "The risks of damage to oil infrastructure ... have multiplied," said Sparta Commodities senior analyst June Goh. Although there are alternative pipeline routes out of the region, there will still be crude volume that cannot be fully exported out if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Shippers will increasingly stay out of the region, she added. Goldman Sachs said in a Sunday report that Brent could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the critical waterway were halved for a month, and remain down by 10% for the following 11 months. The bank still assumed no significant disruption to oil and natural gas supply, adding global incentives to try and prevent a sustained and very large disruption. Brent has risen 13% since the conflict began on June 13, while WTI has gained around 10%. Given the Strait of Hormuz is indispensable for Iran's own oil exports, which are a vital source of its national revenues, a sustained closure would inflict severe economic damage on Iran itself, making it a double-edged sword, Sachdeva added. Meanwhile, Japan on Monday called for de-escalation of the conflict in Iran, while a South Korean vice industry minister voiced concern over the potential impact of the strikes on the country's trade.
Arab News
23-06-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Oil Updates – crude surges to 5-month high after US hits Iran's key nuclear sites
NEW DELHI: Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January as the US's weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities stoked supply concerns. Both contracts rose by more than 3 percent earlier in the session to $81.40 and $78.40, respectively, touching five-month highs before giving up some gains. By 12:21 p.m. Saudi time, Brent crude futures were up 5 cents or 0.06 percent to $77.06 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 0.02 cents or 0.03 percent to $73.86. The rise in prices came after US President Donald Trump said he had 'obliterated' Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran is OPEC's third-largest crude producer. Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global crude supply flows. 'The current geopolitical escalation provides the fundamental catalyst for (Brent) prices to traverse higher and potentially spiral toward $100, with $120 per barrel appearing increasingly plausible,' said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet. Iran said on Monday that the US attack on its nuclear sites expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces and called Trump a 'gambler' for joining Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic. 'The risks of damage to oil infrastructure ... have multiplied,' said Sparta Commodities senior analyst June Goh. Although there are alternative pipeline routes out of the region, there will still be crude volume that cannot be fully exported out if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Shippers will increasingly stay out of the region, she added. Goldman Sachs said in a Sunday report that Brent could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the critical waterway were halved for a month, and remain down by 10 percent for the following 11 months. The bank still assumed no significant disruption to oil and natural gas supply, adding global incentives to try and prevent a sustained and very large disruption. Brent has risen 13 percent since the conflict began on June 13, while WTI has gained around 10 percent. Given the Strait of Hormuz is indispensable for Iran's own oil exports, which are a vital source of its national revenues, a sustained closure would inflict severe economic damage on Iran itself, making it a double-edged sword, Sachdeva added. Meanwhile, Japan on Monday called for de-escalation of the conflict in Iran, while a South Korean vice industry minister voiced concern over the potential impact of the strikes on the country's trade. Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Moscow on Monday, Russian Interfax agency said, citing Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov.
The Star
23-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
Oil surges to five-month high after US hits Iran's key nuclear sites
NEW DELHI: Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January as the United States' weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities stoked supply concerns. Brent crude futures were up $1.52 or 1.97% to $78.53 a barrel as of 0503 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $1.51 or 2.04% to $75.35. Both contracts jumped by more than 3% earlier in the session to $81.40 and $78.40, respectively, touching five-month highs before giving up some gains. The rise in prices came after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran is OPEC's third-largest crude producer. Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global crude supply flows. "The current geopolitical escalation provides the fundamental catalyst for (Brent) prices to traverse higher and potentially spiral towards $100, with $120 per barrel appearing increasingly plausible," said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet. Iran's Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament had approved a measure to close the strait. Iran has in the past threatened to close the strait but has never followed through. Iran and Israel exchanged air and missile strikes on Monday, as global tensions rose over Tehran's expected response to a U.S. attack on its nuclear facilities. "The risks of damage to oil infrastructure ... have multiplied," said Sparta Commodities senior analyst June Goh. Although there are alternative pipeline routes out of the region, there will still be crude volume that cannot be fully exported out if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Shippers will increasingly stay out of the region, she added. Goldman Sachs said in a Sunday report that Brent could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the critical waterway were halved for a month, and remain down by 10% for the following 11 months. The bank still assumed no significant disruption to oil and natural gas supply, adding global incentives to try and prevent a sustained and very large disruption. Brent has risen 13% since the conflict began on June 13, while WTI has gained around 10%. Given the Strait of Hormuz is indispensable for Iran's own oil exports, which are a vital source of its national revenues, a sustained closure would inflict severe economic damage on Iran itself, making it a double-edged sword, Sachdeva added. Meanwhile, Japan on Monday called for de-escalation of the conflict in Iran, while a South Korean vice industry minister voiced concern over the potential impact of the strikes on the country's trade. - Reuters
Shafaq News
23-06-2025
- Business
- Shafaq News
Oil surges to five-month high after US hits Iran's key nuclear sites
Shafaq News/ Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January as the United States' weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities stoked supply concerns. Brent crude futures were up $1.52 or 1.97% to $78.53 a barrel as of 0503 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $1.51 or 2.04% to $75.35. Both contracts jumped by more than 3% earlier in the session to $81.40 and $78.40, respectively, touching five-month highs before giving up some gains. The rise in prices came after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran is OPEC's third-largest crude producer. Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global crude supply flows. "The current geopolitical escalation provides the fundamental catalyst for (Brent) prices to traverse higher and potentially spiral towards $100, with $120 per barrel appearing increasingly plausible," said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet. Iran's Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament had approved a measure to close the strait. Iran has in the past threatened to close the strait but has never followed through. Iran and Israel exchanged air and missile strikes on Monday, as global tensions rose over Tehran's expected response to a U.S. attack on its nuclear facilities. "The risks of damage to oil infrastructure ... have multiplied," said Sparta Commodities senior analyst June Goh. Although there are alternative pipeline routes out of the region, there will still be crude volume that cannot be fully exported out if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Shippers will increasingly stay out of the region, she added. Goldman Sachs said in a Sunday report that Brent could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the critical waterway were halved for a month, and remain down by 10% for the following 11 months. The bank still assumed no significant disruption to oil and natural gas supply, adding global incentives to try and prevent a sustained and very large disruption. Brent has risen 13% since the conflict began on June 13, while WTI has gained around 10%. Given the Strait of Hormuz is indispensable for Iran's own oil exports, which are a vital source of its national revenues, a sustained closure would inflict severe economic damage on Iran itself, making it a double-edged sword, Sachdeva added. Meanwhile, Japan on Monday called for de-escalation of the conflict in Iran, while a South Korean vice industry minister voiced concern over the potential impact of the strikes on the country's trade.
