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Scientific American
3 days ago
- Climate
- Scientific American
Why This Hurricane Season Has Experts on Edge
June 1 marks the official start of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean—and once again, the season looks like it will be busy. Though it is impossible to tell this far in advance exactly when storms will form and where they might hit, the presence of hurricane-friendly environmental conditions this season—along with the federal government cuts and policy chaos —have experts worried about the accuracy of forecasts and the resulting safety of communities. Scientific American asked several forecasters and hurricane researchers what they were most concerned about this year. Warm oceans may mean a busy hurricane season On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. Seasonal forecasts—including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's— put the odds in favor of having more storms than average this season, which will last until November 30. NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms, meaning those of tropical storm strength (with winds of 39 to 74 miles per hour) or higher. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes (with winds of more than 74 mph). And among those hurricanes, three to five are expected to reach major hurricane status—meaning they will have winds that will fall within Category 3 (those of 111 to 129 mph) or a stronger category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The expectations of an active season arise from a combination of a favorable atmospheric environment and abundant ocean heat to fuel storms. For one thing, there's no El Niño in place right now to influence winds in a way that tends to shred storms apart, says Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, whose team releases its own seasonal forecast each year. And waters in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm right now, providing ample fuel for the convection that drives tropical cyclones. 'Over 60 percent of the Gulf is at record or near-record warmth for the time of year, and waters east of Florida and around the Bahamas are as warm as we've seen them for the start of any hurricane season in the satellite era,' says Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 News in Miami. Warm ocean water in these areas can cause storms to rapidly intensify right before landfall, giving communities less time to prepare for the onslaught. This is a major concern for Jill Trepanier, a hurricane researcher at Louisiana State University. 'That is just a devastating situation when it occurs,' she says. It's a situation that has played out many times in recent years, including with Hurricanes Beryl and Milton last season. 'The sticky heat of the Gulf is a worrisome trend that's undoubtedly fueling the spate of big hurricane hits along the Gulf Coast over the past decade or so,' Lowry says. 'This is consistent with recent research that suggests the Gulf has seen a significant increase over the past 42 years in the number of days where it can support high-end hurricanes.' Because of that abundant hurricane fuel, 'I would not be surprised if we see early-season activity well ahead of the peak' of activity in September, says Marshall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia. Several experts noted that this year's conditions have some slight differences from the most recent seasons. For one, 'the waters of the deep tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean—often a bellwether for overall hurricane season activity—are the coolest we've seen them to start a hurricane season since 2021,' Lowry says. But, he adds, they are 'still plenty warm ... and forecast to remain so, which should favor above-average activity.' Though the overall message is that this will be a busier-than-normal season, it is not predicted to be quite as busy as those of the past few years. Klotzbach is worried that could lead to complacency. 'My biggest concern is that, because the seasonal forecasts are a bit less aggressive than last year..., people may tend to let their guard down,' he says. Communities are still recovering Inevitably, each time a new hurricane season begins, some communities are still reeling from storms from the previous year—and often even further back in time. This year 'places in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas are still recovering from Helene, Milton and Debby,' Shepherd says, citing three of the worst storms of the 2024 season. A National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report released last year warned that the Gulf Coast in particular risked being in 'perpetual disaster recovery' mode. The report noted that seven hurricanes struck the region in 2020 and 2021 alone. It's entirely possible that some of the communities pummeled in recent years could face hurricane peril again this year. 'With projections of average to above-average activity, all it takes is one storm to compound an already bad situation for many people,' Marshall says. NWS and FEMA cuts Piled atop these concerns is the situation within the federal government, with substantial budget and staffing cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 'It remains to be seen what the impacts of reduced staffing across relevant NOAA offices and agencies will be,' says Brian McNoldy, a tropical storm researcher at the University of Miami. 'But any loss of expertise, data collection capabilities and around-the-clock monitoring is troubling during critical, high-impact situations.' Though the National Hurricane Center (NHC) monitors the development of tropical storms and hurricanes and produces the main forecasts, local NWS offices still play a crucial role in providing more localized warnings about storm surge, flooding and winds. Many offices in hurricane-prone areas are understaffed, says Jeff Masters, a writer at Yale Climate Connections and a former Hurricane Hunter at NOAA. Among those, the NWS's Houston and Miami offices are suffering the largest staff shortages. The NWS has asked staff from other offices to move into some of these open slots. Lowry and Masters also point out that the cuts have reduced the number of weather balloons launches. Balloon data are crucial for understanding the larger atmospheric patterns that determine where a hurricane will go—and who might need to evacuate or take other precautions. There is one positive note: 'I was very pleased to see the Hurricane Hunters reinstated,' Trepanier says, referring to three of the meteorologists who fly specialized, equipment-laden planes directly into storms to gather data that significantly improve forecasts. 'Though it isn't enough to offset the concern, it is a move in a good direction.' James Franklin, former chief of the NHC's Hurricane Specialist Unit, says he is concerned about trainings for emergency managers that were canceled earlier this year Their absence could leave areas less prepared and less able to know what decisions to make based on forecasts. 'When training has to be cut down…, it just makes those kinds of mistakes on the emergency management side more likely to occur,' he says. Finally, another big worry is simply the government's ability to respond with help for victims when a storm hits. Masters' biggest worry is that FEMA won't 'be capable of managing a major disaster right now.' Reports by CNN and other news outlets have cited internal FEMA memos that report the loss of 30 percent of full-time staff. 'I wrote the plan FEMA uses to respond to hurricanes,' says Lowry, a former employee of both the NHC and FEMA, 'and it's hard to imagine the agency will be able to meet its mission-critical functions this season with such depleted staffing and without a fully revised plan.'
CBS News
22-05-2025
- Climate
- CBS News
Watch Live: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast predicts above-normal number of storms
Ten days before start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have announced their forecast for how many tropical storms and hurricanes to expect this year. The current outlook predicts a 60% chance of an "above-normal" hurricane season, with between 13 to 19 named storms. Six to 10 of those are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, and three to five could become major hurricanes, forecasters said. They estimated there's a 30% chance of a "near-normal" season and a 10% chance of a "below-normal" season. NOAA, the federal agency in charge of weather and climate predictions, releases its seasonal hurricane outlook each spring. It incorporates research from the Climate Prediction Center, the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, all branches of the agency. Acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm and National Weather Service director Ken Graham are presenting the latest findings during a news conference Thursday morning at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana, just outside of New Orleans. Watch a livestream of the announcement, beginning at 11 a.m. Eastern Time, in the video player above. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 until November 30, with peak activity typically occurring between mid-August and mid-October. An average season produces 14 named storms, including seven that develop into hurricanes. Three of those, on average, become major hurricanes, meaning a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour. Category 5, the top of the scale, brings wind speeds of at least 157 mph. Some seasons are more active than others, and hurricanes at times can occur outside of the designated six-month window. Science has shown in recent years that climate change is contributing to the intensity of these storms, which are fueled by warmer waters. Researchers are continuing to explore connections between rising temperatures and more destructive tropical weather. Because each year is different, NOAA's hurricane forecast provides a framework for communities in storm-prone areas to prepare for the season ahead. The agency may also release an updated hurricane forecast later in the season should their assessment change. Last year, NOAA predicted an above-average number of storms, with between 8 and 13 hurricanes. The 2024 season ended up producing 11 hurricanes, five of which strengthened into major hurricanes. Five hurricanes made landfall in the continental U.S., including two — Helene and Milton — that hit as major hurricanes. Threat of an above-average hurricane season When researchers from Colorado State University's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team published their annual forecast earlier this spring, they predicted an above-average hurricane season for 2025, likely producing stronger and more frequent storms than a typical year but fewer than last season. Their predictions have tended to more or less align with those released by NOAA. Levi Silvers, who leads the research team at Colorado State, told CBS News in April that their predictions are "fundamentally dependent on the observations that NOAA collects all around the globe," especially in the oceans, so they generally reach similar conclusions. Silvers and his team predicted there would be 17 named storms this season — tropical storms with sustained wind speeds of at least 39 mph. According to their forecast, nine of the storms will grow into hurricanes, with three developing into major hurricanes. That would place hurricane activity at roughly 125% of the seasonal average recorded between 1991 and 2020, according to their report. "It's a noticeable and important difference, because it matters for people along the coastlines whenever we have an above average season," Silvers said at the time. The Colorado State report largely attributed the higher activity expected this year to warm sea surface temperatures, which can essentially act as fuel for storms. But the findings also pointed to "considerable uncertainty" as to which phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle, would coincide with the coming hurricane season. El Niño, the warmer half of the cycle, is often linked to conditions in a section of the equatorial Pacific that disfavor hurricanes, while La Niña, the colder inverse, is considered more conducive to hurricane formation. La Niña conditions ended shortly after CSU released its hurricane forecast and returned to "neutral," a state that researchers said could be favorable for hurricanes to develop in the absence of El Niño.
CBS News
22-05-2025
- Climate
- CBS News
Watch Live: NOAA reveals 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast
Ten days before start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are announcing their forecast for how many tropical storms and hurricanes to expect this year. NOAA, the federal agency in charge of weather and climate predictions, releases its seasonal hurricane outlook each spring. It incorporates research from the Climate Prediction Center, the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, all branches of the agency. Acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm and National Weather Service director Ken Graham are presenting the latest findings during a news conference Thursday morning at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana, just outside of New Orleans. Watch a livestream of the announcement, beginning at 11 a.m. Eastern Time, in the video player above. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 until November 30, with peak activity typically occurring between mid-August and mid-October. An average season produces 14 named storms, including seven that develop into hurricanes. Three of those, on average, become major hurricanes, meaning a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour. Category 5, the top of the scale, brings wind speeds of at least 157 mph. Some seasons are more active than others, and hurricanes at times can occur outside of the designated six-month window. Science has shown in recent years that climate change is contributing to the intensity of these storms, which are fueled by warmer waters. Researchers are continuing to explore connections between rising temperatures and more destructive tropical weather. Because each year is different, NOAA's hurricane forecast provides a framework for communities in storm-prone areas to prepare for the season ahead. The agency may also release an updated hurricane forecast later in the season should their assessment change. Last year, NOAA predicted an above-average number of storms, with between 8 and 13 hurricanes. The 2024 season ended up producing 11 hurricanes, five of which strengthened into major hurricanes. Five hurricanes made landfall in the continental U.S., including two — Helene and Milton — that hit as major hurricanes. Threat of an above-average hurricane season When researchers from Colorado State University's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team published their annual forecast earlier this spring, they predicted an above-average hurricane season for 2025, likely producing stronger and more frequent storms than a typical year but fewer than last season. Their predictions have tended to more or less align with those released by NOAA. Levi Silvers, who leads the research team at Colorado State, told CBS News in April that their predictions are "fundamentally dependent on the observations that NOAA collects all around the globe," especially in the oceans, so they generally reach similar conclusions. Silvers and his team predicted there would be 17 named storms this season — tropical storms with sustained wind speeds of at least 39 mph. According to their forecast, nine of the storms will grow into hurricanes, with three developing into major hurricanes. That would place hurricane activity at roughly 125% of the seasonal average recorded between 1991 and 2020, according to their report. "It's a noticeable and important difference, because it matters for people along the coastlines whenever we have an above average season," Silvers said at the time. The Colorado State report largely attributed the higher activity expected this year to warm sea surface temperatures, which can essentially act as fuel for storms. But the findings also pointed to "considerable uncertainty" as to which phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle, would coincide with the coming hurricane season. El Niño, the warmer half of the cycle, is often linked to conditions in a section of the equatorial Pacific that disfavor hurricanes, while La Niña, the colder inverse, is considered more conducive to hurricane formation. La Niña conditions ended shortly after CSU released its hurricane forecast and returned to "neutral," a state that researchers said could be favorable for hurricanes to develop in the absence of El Niño.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
NOAA reveals 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today
Ten days before start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are announcing their forecast for how many tropical storms and hurricanes to expect this year. NOAA, the federal agency in charge of weather and climate predictions, releases its seasonal hurricane outlook each spring. It incorporates research from the Climate Prediction Center, the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, all branches of the agency. Acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm and National Weather Service director Ken Graham are presenting the latest findings during a news conference Thursday morning at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana, just outside of New Orleans. Watch a livestream of the announcement, beginning at 11 a.m. Eastern Time, in the video player above. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 until November 30, with peak activity typically occurring between mid-August and mid-October. An average season produces 14 named storms, including seven that develop into hurricanes. Three of those, on average, become major hurricanes, meaning a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour. Category 5, the top of the scale, brings wind speeds of at least 157 mph. Some seasons are more active than others, and hurricanes at times can occur outside of the designated six-month window. Science has shown in recent years that climate change is contributing to the intensity of these storms, which are fueled by warmer waters. Researchers are continuing to explore connections between rising temperatures and more destructive tropical weather. Because each year is different, NOAA's hurricane forecast provides a framework for communities in storm-prone areas to prepare for the season ahead. The agency may also release an updated hurricane forecast later in the season should their assessment change. Last year, NOAA predicted an above-average number of storms, with between 8 and 13 hurricanes. The 2024 season ended up producing 11 hurricanes, five of which strengthened into major hurricanes. Five hurricanes made landfall in the continental U.S., including two — Helene and Milton — that hit as major hurricanes. Threat of an above-average hurricane season When researchers from Colorado State University's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team published their annual forecast earlier this spring, they predicted an above-average hurricane season for 2025, likely producing stronger and more frequent storms than a typical year but fewer than last season. Their predictions have tended to more or less align with those released by NOAA. Levi Silvers, who leads the research team at Colorado State, told CBS News in April that their predictions are "fundamentally dependent on the observations that NOAA collects all around the globe," especially in the oceans, so they generally reach similar conclusions. Silvers and his team predicted there would be 17 named storms this season — tropical storms with sustained wind speeds of at least 39 mph. According to their forecast, nine of the storms will grow into hurricanes, with three developing into major hurricanes. That would place hurricane activity at roughly 125% of the seasonal average recorded between 1991 and 2020, according to their report. "It's a noticeable and important difference, because it matters for people along the coastlines whenever we have an above average season," Silvers said at the time. The Colorado State report largely attributed the higher activity expected this year to warm sea surface temperatures, which can essentially act as fuel for storms. But the findings also pointed to "considerable uncertainty" as to which phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle, would coincide with the coming hurricane season. El Niño, the warmer half of the cycle, is often linked to conditions in a section of the equatorial Pacific that disfavor hurricanes, while La Niña, the colder inverse, is considered more conducive to hurricane formation. La Niña conditions ended shortly after CSU released its hurricane forecast and returned to "neutral," a state that researchers said could be favorable for hurricanes to develop in the absence of El Niño. Trump confronts South African president during White House meeting, repeats genocide claims Watch: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem asked what habeas corpus is in Senate hearing Watch: Rubio and Van Hollen get into testy exchange during Senate hearing
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Explaining the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale
AUSTIN (KXAN) — As hurricane season is quickly approaching, let's remind you about the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. This scale is designed to categorize hurricanes based on wind speed and is made up of five categories. A Category 1 storm is assigned to minimal hurricanes, and Category 5 is assigned to a catastrophic storm. In a Category 1 hurricane, damage is generally minimal. Large tree branches and some trees downed, some siding and shingles may be blown off, with several power outages. Winds are between 74-95 mph. In a Category 2 hurricane, damage is moderate. There is noticeable roof, window, and siding damage, with numerous downed trees, and near total power loss. Winds are between 96-110 mph. In a Category 3 hurricane, damage is extensive. Significant coastal flooding is likely, with major damage to property, power outages could last for several weeks. Winds are between 110-130 mph. In a Category 4 hurricane, damage is extreme. All homes near the coast are flooding with several feet of water, widespread damage to roofs and exterior walls with power outages that could last over a month. Winds are between 131-155 mph. In a Category 5 hurricane, damage is catastrophic. Most homes near the coast are underwater and areas that are far inland flood. Roofs are blown off, with most homes unsalvageable along the coast. Areas in a direct impact with a Category 5 hurricane are inhabitable for weeks. Winds are 155 mph or greater. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
