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India Today
4 hours ago
- Business
- India Today
Retail inflation eases to 8-year low of 1.55% in July
Retail inflation eased sharply to 1.55% in July 2025, marking its lowest level since July 2017, according to provisional data released by the government. The drop represents a big decline of 55 basis points compared to June's 2.10%.Food inflation showed an even steeper drop, falling to -1.76% in July from the previous month, the lowest since January 2019. Both rural and urban areas experienced deflation in food prices, with rural food inflation at -1.74% and urban at -1.90%.The decline in overall inflation is largely attributed to favourable base effects and falling prices in key categories such as pulses, vegetables, cereals, transport and communication, education, eggs, and sugar and headline inflation fell to 1.18% in July from 1.72% in June, while urban inflation eased from 2.56% to 2.05%. Food inflation also declined sharply in both rural and urban categories showed mixed trends: housing inflation remained stable at around 3.17%, education inflation eased to 4.00%, and health inflation rose slightly to 4.57%. Transport and communication inflation dropped significantly to 2.12%, while fuel and light inflation edged up marginally to 2.67%.'The ninth straight fall in CPI might just have signaled the bottoming of inflation. While the low base will ensure a few more benign readings in the coming months, the point to keep in mind from policy perspective is that exit inflation for FY26 i.e., in March 2026, would be 3X higher from here," Sachchidanand Shukla, Group Chief Economist at Larsen & Toubro, told news agency ReutersThe news agency also quoted Sakshi Gupta, Principal Economist at HDFC Bank, who said, 'Inflation moderated below 2% as the disinflation in food continued. The inflation print was broadly in line with expectations and does not change the outlook on monetary policy as the RBI lowered inflation forecast for the year in its August policy. If tariff rates for India are closer to 25% or higher, the space for another rate cut in October could open up.'advertisement(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)- Ends
Reuters
6 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Instant View: India's retail inflation slows to 1.55% in July
Aug 12 (Reuters) - India's annual retail inflation (INCPIY=ECI), opens new tab slowed to 1.55% in July from 2.10% in June, government data showed on Tuesday. A Reuters poll had projected retail inflation at 1.76%. COMMENTARY: The ninth straight fall in CPI might just have signaled the bottoming of inflation. While the low base will ensure a few more benign readings in the coming months, the point to keep in mind from policy perspective is that exit inflation for FY26 i.e. in March 26 would be 3X higher from here SAKSHI GUPTA, PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, GURUGRAM Inflation moderated below 2% as the disinflation in food continued. The inflation print was broadly in line with expectations and does not change the outlook on monetary policy as the RBI lowered inflation forecast for the year in its August policy. If tariff rates for India are closer to 25% or higher, the space for another rate cut in October could open up.
The Sun
4 days ago
- Business
- The Sun
India inflation likely dropped to eight-year low in July: Poll
BENGALURU: Cooling food price rises likely reduced India retail inflation to an eight-year low of 1.76% in July, below the low end of the Reserve Bank of India's 2% to 6% tolerance band for the first time in over six years, a Reuters poll of economists showed. Despite uneven monsoons, a strong spring harvest has helped India keep a lid on food prices, extending the country's longest disinflationary streak in more than a decade. The RBI left rates unchanged at 5.5%, as expected on Wednesday, and said the inflation outlook was 'more benign'. The annual change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 1.76% in July from 2.1% in June, according to the median forecast from an August 4-8 survey of 41 economists. Forecasts ranged from 1.1% to 3.1%. If correct, this will mark the ninth straight month inflation has fallen. 'We are expecting food inflation to be lower, to contract on a year-on-year basis. We continue to see this moderation on the back of healthy supply coming from last year – that's bringing about this disinflationary trend,' said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank. 'Although on a month-on-month basis, certain vegetable prices have gone up – for instance, onion and tomato prices – but that increase has been very moderate and lower than the usual seasonal trends.' Inflation was expected to average 3.4% this fiscal year, slightly above the RBI's 3.1% forecast, a recent separate Reuters poll showed. The benign inflation outlook gives the RBI more room to support the economy, which is under pressure after US President Donald Trump sharply raised tariffs on Indian goods. 'Given the challenging external environment, high US tariffs on Indian goods, a general environment of economic uncertainty and weakening domestic activity indicators, growth may disappoint,' said Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ. 'Inflation could undershoot the RBI's revised projections but is unlikely to drive further easing.' Core inflation, which strips out volatile components like food and fuel and better reflects domestic demand, was expected to have fallen to 4.2% in July, down from an estimated 4.3% in June. The Indian statistics agency does not publish official core inflation data. – Reuters
India Today
4 days ago
- Business
- India Today
Retail inflation likely dropped to an eight-year low in July: Report
Cooling food price rises likely reduced India retail inflation to an eight-year low of 1.76% in July, below the low end of the Reserve Bank of India's 2% to 6% tolerance band for the first time in over six years, a Reuters poll of economists uneven monsoons, a strong spring harvest has helped India keep a lid on food prices, extending the country's longest disinflationary streak in more than a RBI left rates unchanged at 5.50%, as expected, on Wednesday and said the inflation outlook was "more benign". The annual change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 1.76% in July from 2.10% in June, according to the median forecast from an August 4-8 survey of 41 economists. Forecasts ranged from 1.10% to 3.10%.If correct, this will mark the ninth straight month inflation has fallen."We are expecting food inflation to be lower, to contract on a year-on-year continue to see this moderation on the back of healthy supply coming from last year - that's bringing about this disinflationary trend," said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank."Although on a month-on-month basis, certain vegetable prices have gone up - for instance, onion and tomato prices - but that increase has been very moderate and lower than the usual seasonal trends."Inflation was expected to average 3.40% this fiscal year, slightly above the RBI's 3.10% forecast, a recent separate Reuters poll benign inflation outlook gives the RBI more room to support the economy, which is under pressure after US President Donald Trump sharply raised tariffs on Indian goods."Given the challenging external environment, high US tariffs on Indian goods, a general environment of economic uncertainty and weakening domestic activity indicators growth may disappoint," said Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ. "Inflation could undershoot the RBI's revised projections but is unlikely to drive further easing."Core inflation, which strips out volatile components like food and fuel and better reflects domestic demand, was expected to have fallen to 4.20% in July, down from an estimated 4.30% in Indian statistics agency does not publish official core inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was expected to have edged down to -0.30% in July from -0.13% in June, the poll showed.- EndsMust Watch
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Business Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
India inflation likely dropped to an eight-year low in July: Poll
The RBI left rates unchanged at 5.50%, as expected, on Wednesday and said the inflation outlook was 'more benign' Reuters BENGALURU Cooling food price rises likely reduced India retail inflation to an eight-year low of 1.76% in July, below the low end of the Reserve Bank of India's 2% to 6% tolerance band for the first time in over six years, a Reuters poll of economists showed. Despite uneven monsoons, a strong spring harvest has helped India keep a lid on food prices, extending the country's longest disinflationary streak in more than a decade. The RBI left rates unchanged at 5.50%, as expected, on Wednesday and said the inflation outlook was "more benign". The annual change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 1.76% in July from 2.10% in June, according to the median forecast from an August 4-8 survey of 41 economists. Forecasts ranged from 1.10% to 3.10%. If correct, this will mark the ninth straight month inflation has fallen. "We are expecting food inflation to be lower, to contract on a year-on-year continue to see this moderation on the back of healthy supply coming from last year - that's bringing about this disinflationary trend," said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank. "Although on a month-on-month basis, certain vegetable prices have gone up - for instance, onion and tomato prices - but that increase has been very moderate and lower than the usual seasonal trends." Inflation was expected to average 3.40% this fiscal year, slightly above the RBI's 3.10% forecast, a recent separate Reuters poll showed. The benign inflation outlook gives the RBI more room to support the economy, which is under pressure after US President Donald Trump sharply raised tariffs on Indian goods. "Given the challenging external environment, high US tariffs on Indian goods, a general environment of economic uncertainty and weakening domestic activity indicators growth may disappoint," said Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ. "Inflation could undershoot the RBI's revised projections but is unlikely to drive further easing." Core inflation, which strips out volatile components like food and fuel and better reflects domestic demand, was expected to have fallen to 4.20% in July, down from an estimated 4.30% in June. The Indian statistics agency does not publish official core inflation data. Inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was expected to have edged down to -0.30% in July from -0.13% in June, the poll showed. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
